{"id":10446,"date":"2021-09-17T11:44:30","date_gmt":"2021-09-17T08:44:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=10446"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:14","slug":"dogalgaz-fiyatlarindaki-yukselis-ne-anlama-geliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/dogalgaz-fiyatlarindaki-yukselis-ne-anlama-geliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Do\u011falgaz Fi\u0307yatlarindaki\u0307 Y\u00fckseli\u0307\u015f Ne Anlama Geli\u0307yor?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Avrupa’da al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede so\u011fuk ge\u00e7en bir k\u0131\u015f ve Covid-19’dan kaynaklanan k\u00fcresel bir toparlanma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi tetiklemi\u015fti ve do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015fti. Bunlar\u0131n akabininde ise, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 2014’ten bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131. ABD do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karken, Asya ve Avrupa’daki art\u0131\u015f daha da b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fc; Asya i\u00e7in d\u00f6rt kat, Avrupa i\u00e7in be\u015f kat art\u0131\u015f oldu. Avrupa\u2019ya k\u0131\u015f ay\u0131n\u0131n erken gelmesi ve so\u011fuk bir k\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 durumunda fiyatlar\u0131n daha da t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fi iddia ediliyor. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra elektrik fiyatlar\u0131 da artan do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131yla birlikte y\u00fckseliyor.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Tablo 1: Do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 (17 Eyl\u00fcl 2020\u2019den 17 Eyl\u00fcl 2021\u2019e kadar) Kaynak: https:\/\/tr.investing.com\/commodities\/natural-gas<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Peki, bu y\u00fckseli\u015fte rol alan fakt\u00f6rleri neler?<\/p>\n

Bu fakt\u00f6rleri ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131n olmas\u0131 gerekenin alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 ilk s\u0131rada geliyor. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa’da artan talep ve ya\u015fanan arz problemleri nedeniyle do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131 \u00f6nceki senelere g\u00f6re ciddi oranda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Do\u011falgaza y\u00f6nelik talebin artmas\u0131nda etkili olan bir di\u011fer etmen ise LNG fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a y\u00fckselmesi. \u00d6zellikle Avrupa ve Asya\u2019da LNG ‘ ye olan ciddi talep, LNG fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na sebep oluyor. Avrupa\u2019daki do\u011fal gaz spot fiyatlar\u0131 tarih boyunca Asya\u2019daki fiyatlardan daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131,\u00a0 ancak Avrupa depolama stoklar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden doldurmak\u00a0 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok noktas\u0131ndan esnek LNG arz\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltti.<\/p>\n

LNG piyasas\u0131ndaki bu fiyat ve talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ABD\u2019nin g\u00fcncel LNG ihracat kapasitesini 2,7 milyar feet k\u00fcp\/g\u00fcn artt\u0131rmas\u0131na sebep oldu. Artan fiyatla birlikte ABD, do\u011falgaz\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 10 unu ve bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 41 ini ihra\u00e7 etti.\u00a0ABD’nin do\u011fal gaz\u0131n\u0131 LNG olarak ihra\u00e7 etmesi, b\u00f6ylece yaz aylar\u0131nda yeralt\u0131 depolar\u0131na yap\u0131lan gaz enjeksiyonunu sekteye u\u011fratt\u0131 ve yerel stoklaman\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine oldu.<\/p>\n

Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Ida Kas\u0131rgas\u0131, Meksika K\u00f6rfezi’ndeki petrol ve gaz \u00fcretiminin %77’si hala \u00e7evrimd\u0131\u015f\u0131 durumdayken, \u00f6nemli miktarda gaz \u00fcretimini durdurdu. ABD h\u00fck\u00fcmet istatistiklerine g\u00f6re, do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131 \u015fu anda bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re %17 ve be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalaman\u0131n %7,4 alt\u0131nda. EIA taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131mlanan a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda y\u0131llara g\u00f6re Amerika\u2019da gaz\u0131n yeralt\u0131 depolamas\u0131nda stok durumu g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Bu tabloya g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en sene ile ayn\u0131 talebin oldu\u011fu varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 4 Eyl\u00fcl 2020’de 3.525 milyar feet k\u00fcp olan depolama (\u00e7al\u0131\u015fma gaz\u0131 kapasitesi) bu sene yani 3 Eyl\u00fcl 2021 de 2.923 milyar feet k\u00fcp civar\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmekteyiz. (Tablo 2). Bu durumda ABD’de ya\u015fanacak \u015fiddetli bir k\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131n daha da artmas\u0131na sebep olabilir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Tablo 2: ABD Yeralt\u0131 Depolama Stok Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131 (Eyl\u00fcl 2020 vs Eyl\u00fcl 2021) Kaynak: https:\/\/ir.eia.gov\/ngs\/ngs.html<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

 <\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan Avrupa ve Asya\u2019n\u0131n k\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in gaz stok talebi gittik\u00e7e art\u0131yor. Fakat Avustralya, Malezya, Nijerya, Cezayir, Norve\u00e7 ve Trinidad ve Tobago da dahil olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkedeki LNG ihracat tesislerinde yap\u0131lan s\u00fcrekli plans\u0131z kesintiler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu geli\u015fmeler de ABD\u2019nin LNG ihracat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli k\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Boru hatlar\u0131ndan Avrupa’ya gelen ak\u0131\u015f miktar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, Avrupa\u2019da depolar\u0131n yeniden dolmas\u0131 i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olarak duruyor. Fakat Rus arz\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcreklili\u011fini zay\u0131f olmas\u0131 burada en b\u00fcy\u00fck problemi olu\u015fturuyor.\u00a0 Gazprom’un Ukrayna \u00fczerinden ek gaz pompalamay\u0131 reddetmesi y\u00fcz\u00fcnden a\u011fustos ay\u0131n\u0131n sonundan bu yana Almanya’da yeralt\u0131 depolama tesisleri Rehden ve Katharina’ya gaz pompalanmas\u0131n\u0131n durmas\u0131 bu problemlere en g\u00fcncel \u00f6rnek olarak g\u00f6sterilebilir.<\/p>\n

Bu ay\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda ise Sibirya’daki bir kondensat tesisinde bir yang\u0131n patlak verdi ve Yamal-Avrupa boru hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden do\u011fal gaz arz\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. Bu da Avrupa’n\u0131n stoklar\u0131n\u0131 yeterince dolduramamas\u0131na etki eden bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r oldu.<\/p>\n

Bunlara ek olarak, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019ya do\u011fal gaz ihracat\u0131n\u0131 siyasi nedenle azaltarak Kuzey Ak\u0131m 2\u2019nin gereklili\u011fini vurgulamak isteyebilece\u011fi iddialar\u0131 da yer al\u0131yor. Rusya taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada; Rusya’dan Avrupa\u2019ya yap\u0131lan boru hatt\u0131yla yap\u0131lan gaz tedari\u011fi sorunlu ve siyasi nedenlerle de\u011fil, teknik nedenler dolay\u0131s\u0131yla oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Burada bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli husus Rusya ile Almanya aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan Kuzey Ak\u0131m 2 boru hatt\u0131d\u0131r. Kuzey Ak\u0131m 2 do\u011fal gaz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n en k\u0131sa s\u00fcrede devreye al\u0131nmas\u0131 Avrupa’da do\u011fal gaz fiyat\u0131 parametrelerine denge getirebilir. Boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131yla bu y\u0131l\u0131n sonuna kadar tam kapasite \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi de yetkililer taraf\u0131ndan ifade edildi. Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan Kuzey Ak\u0131m 2 hatt\u0131n\u0131n faaliyete ge\u00e7mesi do\u011fal gaz piyasas\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini tersine \u00e7evirebilir ve piyasadaki fiyatlar\u0131n ini\u015fe ge\u00e7mesine sebep olabilir.<\/p>\n

Fiyatlar\u0131 rekor seviyelere \u00e7\u0131karan talep ve arz aras\u0131ndaki mevcut dengesizlik sayesinde do\u011fal gaz \u00fcretiminin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l \u00f6nemli bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor. \u00d6zellikle k\u0131\u015f boyunca artan gaz arz\u0131yla birlikte gelecek y\u0131l bir arz\/ talep dengesinin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Fakat fiyatlar\u0131n en az\u0131ndan k\u0131\u015f ay\u0131 bitmeden eski seviyelerine d\u00f6nmesi beklenmiyor.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer yandan baz\u0131 uzmanlar mevcut y\u00fcksek fiyat seviyelerinin s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini ve bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n biraz da spek\u00fclasyon kaynakl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtiyorlar.<\/p>\n

Do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 senaryoyu T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirdi\u011fimizde, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de boru hatlar\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan al\u0131mlar uzun s\u00fcreli kontratlara sahip oldu\u011fundan gaz ithalat fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019daki kadar \u00e7ok artmas\u0131 etkilemesi beklenmiyor. LNG ithalat\u0131 ise bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yolu olarak durmuyor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc LNG fiyatlar\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da y\u00fcksek bir seviyeye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yap\u0131lacak LNG ithalat\u0131 enerji maliyetlerini ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131rabilir. Do\u011falgaz\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131ndaki bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de t\u0131pk\u0131 Avrupa\u2019da oldu\u011fu gibi k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131nda do\u011fal gaz ve elektrik faturalar\u0131na zam olarak yans\u0131mas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz duruyor.<\/p>\n

Fatih Marangoz<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Avrupa’da al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede so\u011fuk ge\u00e7en bir k\u0131\u015f ve Covid-19’dan kaynaklanan k\u00fcresel bir toparlanma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi tetiklemi\u015fti ve do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015fti. Bunlar\u0131n akabininde ise, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106,117,879],"tags":[714,1296],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-10446","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-politika-diplomasi-ihtilaflar-guvenlik","tag-dogalgaz","tag-fatih-marangoz"],"yoast_head":"\nDo\u011falgaz Fi\u0307yatlarindaki\u0307 Y\u00fckseli\u0307\u015f Ne Anlama Geli\u0307yor? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/dogalgaz-fiyatlarindaki-yukselis-ne-anlama-geliyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Do\u011falgaz Fi\u0307yatlarindaki\u0307 Y\u00fckseli\u0307\u015f Ne Anlama Geli\u0307yor? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Avrupa’da al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131k derecede so\u011fuk ge\u00e7en bir k\u0131\u015f ve Covid-19’dan kaynaklanan k\u00fcresel bir toparlanma, g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talebi tetiklemi\u015fti ve do\u011fal gaz stoklar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015fti. 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