ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki so\u011fuk sava\u015f b\u00fct\u00fcn h\u0131z\u0131yla devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019nin AUKUS pakt\u0131 ve Quad inisiyatifi hamlelerinden sonra, \u00c7in (kendisi i\u00e7in G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizindeki h\u00e2kimiyeti anlam\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131 olan) Tayvan\u2019a daha da fazla y\u00fcklenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
(ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin Avustralya\u2019da hayata ge\u00e7irece\u011fi n\u00fckleer denizalt\u0131 geli\u015ftirme program\u0131, 20 y\u0131l sonra meyvelerini vermeye ba\u015flamas\u0131 neticesinde art\u0131k s\u00fcrecin \u00e7oktan kaybedilmi\u015f olabilece\u011finin idrakinde olarak) \u00c7in; askeri \u2013 ekonomik \u2013 alg\u0131sal \u2013 diplomatik b\u00fct\u00fcn hamleleriyle, Tayvan\u2019\u0131 yutmaya odaklanm\u0131\u015f durumda\u2026<\/p>\n
Yutabilecek mi?<\/p>\n
G\u00f6rece\u011fiz!<\/p>\n
Tabii bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD ve Japonya gibi devletlerle diplomasi kartlar\u0131 da halen kullan\u0131mda\u2026<\/p>\n
Peki, bu senaryodan bir s\u0131cak sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131kar m\u0131?<\/p>\n
\u015eimdilik m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmese de, imk\u00e2ns\u0131z da de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
2021 \u2013 2041 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131 d\u00e2hilinde, \u00e7oklu alternatif senaryolar i\u00e7eren d\u0131\u015f politika hedefleri hem ABD, hem de \u00c7in nezdinde netle\u015fmi\u015f gibi\u2026<\/p>\n
\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k periyotta, ABD \u00c7in\u2019i her a\u00e7\u0131dan ku\u015fatma stratejisini uygularken, \u00c7in\u2019de alternatif g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar ile bu ku\u015fatmay\u0131 delme, savunmaya ge\u00e7me ve kritik hamleler ile ipleri eline almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak gibi duruyor!<\/p>\n
ABD i\u00e7in art\u0131k yeni \u00f6ncelik; Avustralya, Japonya, Hindistan, Tayvan, Singapur, Filipinler, G\u00fcney Kore gibi \u00c7in\u2019i \u00e7evreleyecek ve ticaret rotalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde tehdit olu\u015fturacak \u00fclkeler dikkat \u00e7ekerken,<\/p>\n
\u00c7in i\u00e7in (bu senaryoya kar\u015f\u0131 savunma stratejileri anlam\u0131nda) yeni \u00f6ncelik; Malezya, Endonezya, Myanmar, Afganistan, Pakistan ve Tayland olarak belirginle\u015fmekle birlikte,<\/p>\n
En b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lma noktalar\u0131 olan Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan ve Tayvan da (en hayati) \u00f6ncelik olma niteli\u011fini korumaktad\u0131r!<\/p>\n
Bu dengelere ek olarak, \u00c7in\u2019i yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve enerji kart\u0131 ile s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in de pandemi gibi s\u00fcre\u00e7leri lehine \u00e7evirebilme yetisi g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmakta ve k\u00fcresel sistem i\u00e7in (ger\u00e7ekle \u2013 komplo aras\u0131nda kan\u0131tlanamaz bir d\u00fczlemde) yeni riskleri ak\u0131llara getirmektedir.<\/p>\n
*****<\/p>\n
\u015eimdi bu tablo \u00fczerinden gelelim (b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in halen g\u00fcndemden d\u00fc\u015fmeyen, pek de d\u00fc\u015fecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen) Afganistan\u2019a\u2026<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta TESPAM olarak Afganistan hakk\u0131nda, s\u00fcrece saha boyutunda h\u00e2kim olan (Afganistan E. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakan\u0131 Enver Sedat ve TESPAM Dan\u0131\u015fmanlar Kurulu \u00dcyesi Mehmet Ali G\u00fcl) konuklar\u0131m\u0131z ile geli\u015fmeleri b\u00fct\u00fcn derinli\u011fi ile yorumlamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z verimli bir etkinlik ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdik. (Bu etkinli\u011fi youtube\/TVEnerji kanal\u0131ndan izleyebilirsiniz.)<\/p>\n
Hangi sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 m\u0131 elde ettik?<\/p>\n
Maddeler halinde s\u0131ralarsak:<\/p>\n
-ABD Afganistan\u2019dan \u201c\u00c7in\u2019i \u00e7evrelemeye daha fazla kaynak ay\u0131rabilmek merkezli\u201d yeni d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 d\u00e2hilinde ayr\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
-Tabii bu ayr\u0131lma ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgeyi kendi haline b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmemeliydi.<\/p>\n
-ABD \u015fimdi; hem b\u00f6lge \u00fclkelerini, hem \u00c7in\u2019in kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticaret g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlar\u0131n\u0131, hem Rusya\u2019y\u0131, hem de Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan \u00fczerinden \u00c7in\u2019in i\u00e7 dinamiklerini bir istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k ve \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131na s\u00fcr\u00fcklemeyi hedefliyor!<\/p>\n
-Bunu elde etmek i\u00e7in de: b\u00f6lgede \u00e7ok daha etkin bir \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelere h\u0131zla yay\u0131lan bir DAE\u015e modelini uygulamaya ge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor!<\/p>\n
-Mevcut durumda, daha \u00f6nce ABD\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sava\u015f\u0131nda bir sinerji yakalam\u0131\u015f olan Taliban\u2019\u0131n art\u0131k iktidar olmas\u0131, iktidarl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde ise rehavetin, i\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kar \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ve artan \u00f6rg\u00fct i\u00e7i mezhepsel ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n Taliban\u2019\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa u\u011frataca\u011f\u0131 gibi, Taliban\u2019dan kopan bir\u00e7ok grubun (finansal imkanlar\u0131 geni\u015f olan) DAE\u015e\u2019e kayaca\u011f\u0131 kolayl\u0131kla fark edilebiliyor!<\/p>\n
-Bu sayede g\u00fc\u00e7lenen DAE\u015e, Irak ve Suriye\u2019deki gibi, k\u0131sa zamanda (sosyok\u00fclt\u00fcrel ve ekonomik anlamda uygun zemin ihtiva eden) \u00d6zbekistan, Rusya, K\u0131rg\u0131zistan, Pakistan, Tacikistan, Hindistan ve hepsinden de \u00f6nemlisi Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan\u2019da yay\u0131labilmek ve etkin olabilmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsat yakalayacak!<\/p>\n
-DAE\u015e\u2019in getirdi\u011fi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k sayesinde de, ABD; hem \u00c7in\u2019i zay\u0131flatabilecek, hem de k\u0131smen Rusya, Pakistan, Hindistan gibi \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde farkl\u0131 bir kontrol mekanizmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u015fletebilecek!<\/p>\n
-\u00c7in\u2019in arka bah\u00e7esi olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 b\u00f6lge fokur fokur kaynarken, ABD \u00e7ok daha az kaynak harcayarak, \u00c7in\u2019i zay\u0131flatma ve kontrol alt\u0131nda tutma stratejisini y\u00f6netebilecek!<\/p>\n
-Bu senaryoyu \u00f6nceden fark eden Rusya, \u00c7in ve di\u011fer b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri baz\u0131 hamlelere giri\u015fti bile.<\/p>\n
-Rusya kendisi ve eski Soyvet \u00fclkeleri olarak nitelendirdi\u011fi b\u00f6lgelerde tehdidi bertaraf etmek i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok operasyona ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
-\u00c7in ise Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha da fazla artt\u0131rmaya devam ederken, Taliban\u2019\u0131 finansal anlamda destekleme ve bu sayede hem Afganistan\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fcyen i\u00e7 kaosu \u00f6nleme, hem de yer alt\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131ndan faydalanma stratejisini uygulamak i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u011fmeye bast\u0131.<\/p>\n
-Fakat \u00c7in Afganistan\u2019da kesinlikle sevilmiyor! Bu da ilgili yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ve giri\u015fimlerin neticeye ula\u015fmas\u0131na imk\u00e2n vermiyor!<\/p>\n
-\u00d6te taraftan Taliban b\u00fcnyesindeki i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ve huzursuzluk \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde t\u0131rman\u0131yor!<\/p>\n
-Ve \u201c\u00c7in\u2019e yana\u015fma sinyalleri ile Do\u011fu T\u00fcrkistan\u2019daki zulm\u00fcn m\u00fcsebbibi olan emperyalistlerle i\u015f tutan imaj\u0131 \u00e7izen, paras\u0131z, a\u00e7, i\u015f bilmez, insanlar\u0131 doyuramaz\u201d nitelikteki Taliban\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok daha e\u011fitimli ve profesyonel hamleler yapan DAE\u015e b\u00fcy\u00fck bir trend yakal\u0131yor!<\/p>\n
-B\u00f6lgedeki sefalet dahi ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na DAE\u015e\u2019e kat\u0131l\u0131m i\u00e7in zemin olu\u015fturuyor!<\/p>\n
-\u00c7in\u2019in bu dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi imk\u00e2ns\u0131z!<\/p>\n
-Tabii bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te yine ezilen, a\u00e7 b\u0131rak\u0131lan ve katledilen maalesef b\u00f6lgedeki mazlum insanlar oluyor!<\/p>\n
-\u00d6te taraftan Afganistan ve yak\u0131n co\u011frafyas\u0131 nezdinde etnik ve mezhepsel anlamda b\u00fct\u00fcn farkl\u0131 gruplar\u0131n kabul etti\u011fi tek d\u0131\u015f akt\u00f6r T\u00dcRK\u0130YE!<\/p>\n
-(G\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc-e\u011fitilip donat\u0131lan \u00f6rg\u00fct!) DAE\u015e d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki b\u00fct\u00fcn unsurlar\u0131n sayg\u0131 duydu\u011fu ve dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirme potansiyeli olan tek d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7 yine T\u00dcRK\u0130YE!<\/p>\n
-Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Afganistan\u2019\u0131n siyaset-akademisyen-\u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6netici-istihbarat\u00e7\u0131-sanat\u00e7\u0131 gibi neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn elit kesimi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f durumda!<\/p>\n
Bu dengeler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin:<\/p>\n
-\u00d6ncelikle ger\u00e7ekten b\u00fcy\u00fck bir a\u00e7l\u0131k ile m\u00fccadele veren Afgan halk\u0131na ivedi insani yard\u0131m ula\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na ve bu ba\u011flamda uluslararas\u0131 destek sa\u011flanmas\u0131na \u00f6n ayak olunmas\u0131,<\/p>\n
-Taliban i\u00e7erisindeki \u00f6nemli komutanlardan biri olan (T\u00fcrk k\u00f6kenli) Selahattin Eyy\u00fcbi ve kendisine ba\u011fl\u0131 olan g\u00fc\u00e7lerin desteklenerek, hem Taliban hem de \u00fclke i\u00e7inde daha etkin bir kontrol mekanizmas\u0131 kurulmas\u0131,<\/p>\n
-T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye s\u0131\u011f\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olan Afgan yetkililere ve elitlere vatanda\u015fl\u0131k verilmesi ve akabinde \u00f6zel bir isti\u015fare heyeti olu\u015fturularak, politik hedeflerin yerel dinamikler de dikkate al\u0131narak g\u00fcncellenmesi,<\/p>\n
-Pakistan, Rusya, \u00d6zbekistan, T\u00fcrkmenistan ve Tacikistan ile bir araya gelerek s\u00fcrecin ortak zeminde de\u011ferlendirilmesi,<\/p>\n
-\u0130ran\u2019daki Ayetullahlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in Taliban ve Dae\u015f\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan da tehdit edilen Hazara T\u00fcrklerine sahip \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131,<\/p>\n
-M\u00fcmk\u00fcnse \u00d6zbekistan\u2019da bir askeri \u00fcs veya insans\u0131z hava arac\u0131 \u00fcss\u00fc kurularak, b\u00f6lgede daha etkin bir \u015fekilde yer al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u015feklinde bir politikay\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmesi \u00f6nemlidir!<\/p>\n
*****<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere yap\u0131lacak \u00e7ok i\u015f var!<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel h\u00e2kimiyet i\u015ftah\u0131yla, geni\u015f bir co\u011frafya \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck yang\u0131nlar\u0131n i\u00e7ine s\u00fcr\u00fckletilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor!<\/p>\n
Yine ta\u015feron TER\u00d6R \u00d6RG\u00dcTLER\u0130\u2026<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\nO\u011fuzhan Akyener<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki so\u011fuk sava\u015f b\u00fct\u00fcn h\u0131z\u0131yla devam ediyor. ABD\u2019nin AUKUS pakt\u0131 ve Quad inisiyatifi hamlelerinden sonra, \u00c7in (kendisi i\u00e7in G\u00fcney \u00c7in Denizindeki h\u00e2kimiyeti anlam\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[1090,1089,988,106],"tags":[1291,1283,1286],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-10573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bolgesine-gore","category-enerji-turune-gore","category-iklim-cevre","category-kose-yazilari","tag-afkanistan","tag-oguzhan-akyner","tag-tayvan"],"yoast_head":"\n