{"id":10615,"date":"2017-01-06T14:12:37","date_gmt":"2017-01-06T11:12:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=3993"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:19","slug":"turkmenistan-irana-verdigi-gazi-kesti-peki-yaklasimimiz-ne-olmali","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/turkmenistan-irana-verdigi-gazi-kesti-peki-yaklasimimiz-ne-olmali\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkmenistan \u0130ran’a Verdi\u011fi Gaz\u0131 Kesti: Peki Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131m\u0131z Ne Olmal\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u00fcrkmenistan, \u0130ran ile devam eden gaz ticaretini, sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namayan m\u00fczakereler neticesinde durdurma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Bu durum \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00f6zellikle kuzeydo\u011fusunda yer alan Golestan, Kuzey ve G\u00fcney Horasan vilayetlerinde gaz kesintisinin ya\u015fanmas\u0131na sebep oldu. B\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 kamu oyunca \u00f6nemli yank\u0131 bulan bu geli\u015fme, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye olan gaz tedari\u011fini de etkileyip, etkilemeyece\u011fi gibi konularda sorular\u0131n g\u00fcndeme gelmesine sebep oldu.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<\/blockquote>\n

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Peki T\u00fcrkmenistan ni\u00e7in b\u00f6yle bir kesintiye gitme ihtiyac\u0131 duydu?<\/p>\n

Ne kadar zamand\u0131r s\u00fcren bir ticaret sonland\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131? S\u00fcre\u00e7 nas\u0131l etkilendi?<\/p>\n

\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gaz tedariki bu durumdan etkilenir mi?<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye bu geli\u015fmelere hangi pencereden yakla\u015fmal\u0131?<\/p>\n

***<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkmenistan yetkililerinin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131ndan anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r ki; 2013 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana \u0130ran Milli Gaz \u015eirketi gaz sat\u0131\u015f bedellerini d\u00fczenli olarak \u00f6dememektedir. Bunun neticesinde, \u0130ran\u2019a gaz tedariki yapan ilgili sahalardaki ve nakil hatlar\u0131ndaki operasyonel faaliyetlerinin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli finans\u0131 temin etmek zor hale gelmi\u015ftir. Bahsi ge\u00e7en finansal sebeplerle gaz tedarikinde kesintiye gidilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Bu konuya \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise; ambargo d\u00f6neminde farkl\u0131 ticari \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin ve servis hizmetlerinin nakli usul\u00fc ile devam eden ticaretin yeni d\u00f6nemde nakdi olarak sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ile ilgili olarak baz\u0131 anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130thal edilen gaz\u0131n fiyatland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131-hacmi-kalitesi-d\u00f6nemi gibi kriterlerde net olmayan ve incelenmesi gereken durumlar bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu sebeplerle, var oldu\u011fu iddia edilen bor\u00e7 tutar\u0131 da net de\u011fildir. \u0130ncelenmesi ve de\u011ferlendirilmesi gereklidir. \u00d6deme bunun akabinde yap\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, ge\u00e7mi\u015f ticari faaliyetler incelendi\u011finde \u0130ran taraf\u0131n\u0131n borcunu \u00f6dememe gibi bir durumu s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fildir. Aksine, T\u00fcrkmenistan talebin en yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu b\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nemde kendilerini ma\u011fdur etmi\u015ftir. Bu durumun benzeri daha \u00f6nce de tekrarlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. T\u00fcrkmenistan bu tutumu ile gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda avantaj elde etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r. Gaz\u0131n 1000m3\u2019\u00fc ba\u015f\u0131na g\u00fcncel fiyatlarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, 360 $ gibi y\u00fcksek bir rakam talep edilmektedir. Bu durum da etik de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

Yap\u0131lan bu s\u00f6ylemler yorumlanmadan \u00f6nce, ikili aras\u0131ndaki gaz ticaretinin genel hatlar\u0131na bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • \u0130kili aras\u0131ndaki ilk gaz ticareti, 8 milyar m3\/y\u0131l kapasiteli K\u00f6rpece-Kurtk\u00f6y Boru Hatt\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Golestan vilayetindeki talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamak maksatl\u0131 1997 sonunda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n
  • Sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkmenistan\u2019daki Devletabat gaz sahas\u0131ndan, Saraks\u2019a oradan da Kangiran gaz tesislerine \u00e7ekilen ve \u0130ran i\u00e7 iletim sistemlerine ba\u011flanan, y\u0131ll\u0131k 12 milyar m3 kapasiteye sahip boru hatt\u0131ndan da 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda gaz ticareti ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n
  • Genellikle y\u0131ll\u0131k 6 ila 9 milyar m3 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen gaz ticaret hacmi, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniden 9 milyar m3 seviyelerine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n
  • \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lan ambargolar\u0131n akabinde, b\u00f6lgesel etkinli\u011fini artt\u0131rmak ve kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 en k\u0131sa zamanda geli\u015ftirebilmek y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki politikalar\u0131, bu politikalar\u0131n akabinde artmas\u0131 beklenen gaz \u00fcretim kapasitesi, \u00fclkenin g\u00fcneyinde yer alan kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 kuzey do\u011fusuna ta\u015f\u0131mak i\u00e7in planlanan IGAT 11 gibi projelerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131na art\u0131k \u00f6nemli bir talebin olmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, mevcut ticaretin zaten uzun vadede devam etmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki beklentileri artt\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n
  • Yani yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 y\u0131ld\u0131r devam eden ticaret, zaten nihayetine varmaya yakla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Finansal sebeplerle gecikti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen IGAT 11 projesi hayata ge\u00e7tikten sonra, ilgili vilayetlerin gaz taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkmenistan\u2019a duyulan ihtiya\u00e7 da son bulacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n
  • \u0130letim ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m sistemlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Kuzey Do\u011fusundaki T\u00fcrkmenistan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda yer alan Kangiran ve Gonbadl\u0131 sahalar\u0131 da, uygun yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00fcn fazlar\u0131n\u0131n revize edilerek geli\u015ftirilmesi sayesinde, ilgili b\u00f6lgelerin gaz ihtiyac\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lanabilecektir. \u0130ki sahan\u0131n toplam\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 450 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck gaz rezervi oldu\u011fu tahmin edilmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Sonu\u00e7 olarak, yukar\u0131da de\u011finilen ba\u015fl\u0131ca hususlar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda;<\/p>\n

      \n
    • T\u00fcrkmenistan zaten orta vadede \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gaz talebini sonland\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmektedir. Bu sebeple y\u00fcr\u00fctece\u011fi m\u00fczakere s\u00fcrecinde daha sert yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar alabilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, \u0130ran\u2019dan belki bahsedildi\u011fi gibi 2 milyar $ civar\u0131nda de\u011fil fakat yine de \u00f6nemli miktarlarda alaca\u011f\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. (Baz\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalara g\u00f6re bu miktar 600 milyon $ ile 1,8 milyar $ aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015febilecektir.) Bu miktar\u0131n netlik kazanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6zellikle talebin b\u00f6ylesi y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde kesintiye giderek, s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131rmak ve pazarl\u0131k \u015fans\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
    • \u0130lgili sahalardaki \u00fcretimlerin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise, \u00fcretim ve nakliyat\u0131n devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli masraflar\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131, bunun i\u00e7in de sat\u0131lan \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn olmas\u0131 gereklidir. Yani bir an \u00f6nce bir uzla\u015f\u0131 ortam\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olan en \u00fcst seviyeden \u00f6deme al\u0131nmas\u0131 T\u00fcrkmenistan i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir.<\/li>\n
    • \u0130ran a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise, gaz sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n durdurulmas\u0131 mevsimsel fakt\u00f6rler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ciddi s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ya\u015fanmas\u0131na sebep olmaktad\u0131r. Bununla birlikte, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n finansal imkanlar\u0131 da k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131d\u0131r. Bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131 konusunun ise \u00f6ncelikle netle\u015ftirilmesi gerekmektedir.<\/li>\n
    • Yani iki taraf\u0131n da hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu y\u00f6nler mevcuttur. Bu durumun en h\u0131zl\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc, uzun tahkim s\u00fcre\u00e7leri yerine, bir garant\u00f6r \u00fclkenin hakemli\u011finde uzla\u015f\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu garant\u00f6r \u00fclkenin de \u015eanghay \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc Enerji Kul\u00fcb\u00fc Ba\u015fkan\u0131 olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin olmas\u0131 yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Uzla\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flanana kadar da, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gaz \u00fcretim imkanlar\u0131n\u0131 en \u00fcst seviyede de\u011ferlendirmesi, sanayi t\u00fcketiminde k\u0131s\u0131tlamaya gitmesi ya da gaz ihra\u00e7 potansiyelinde erteleme veya kapasite azal\u0131m\u0131 yapmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. \u00d6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de ilgilendiren bir husus olan gaz ihra\u00e7 potansiyeli kapsam\u0131nda; \u0130ran, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ve Irak\u2019a devam eden ihracat\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smak yerine, \u00f6ncelikle 2017 ba\u015f\u0131nda planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Irak\u2019a gaz sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131n ikinci faz\u0131n\u0131 bahara kadar erteleme opsiyonunu kullanabilir. Bu sayede kurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ihra\u00e7 potansiyelinden ek hacim kazanm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

      Fakat b\u00f6yle bir potansiyel kazan\u0131lsa dahi; \u00fclkenin g\u00fcneyinde \u00fcretilen gaz\u0131, kuzey do\u011fuya sevk etmek i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan nakil (boru hatt\u0131) kapasitesi ve imkanlar\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan (bu fonksiyonu yerine getirecek olan IGAT11 projesi de hayata ge\u00e7medi\u011finden) ihra\u00e7 potansiyelinden k\u0131s\u0131larak elde edilen kapasitenin, ilgili ma\u011fdur b\u00f6lgelere nakledilebilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. Di\u011fer bir ifade ile \u201c\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkmenistan\u2019dan ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 hacim, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye verdi\u011fi hacme yak\u0131nd\u0131r. Bu sebeple T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye giden gaz\u0131 kesecektir.\u201d tarz\u0131nda bir yakla\u015f\u0131m tutarl\u0131 de\u011fildir. Bu sebeple ihra\u00e7 potansiyelinde de \u00f6nemli bir kesilme olaca\u011f\u0131 beklenmemektedir.<\/p>\n

      Sonu\u00e7 olarak, her ne kadar \u00fczeri \u00f6rt\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lsa da, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n finansal deste\u011fe ihtiyac\u0131 oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r. Uzun s\u00fcren m\u00fczakareler kapsam\u0131nda swap alternatiflerinin dahi g\u00fcndeme al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinmektedir. Bunlara ek olarak, T\u00fcrkmenistan\u2019\u0131n da hali haz\u0131rdaki elindeki tek m\u00fc\u015fteri olan \u00c7in\u2019in yan\u0131 s\u0131ra yeni pazar aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da devam etmektedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de daha fazla gaz ithalat\u0131na ve kaynak \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fine ihtiyac\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

      T\u00fcrkiye T\u00fcrkmenistan gaz\u0131n\u0131, hali haz\u0131rdaki bo\u015f kapasiteler kullan\u0131larak Rusya \u00fczerinden, baz\u0131 hat kapasitesi geli\u015ftirme yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndan sonra \u0130ran \u00fczerinden (hem direk tedarik hem de swap y\u00f6ntemi ile) ve yeni in\u015fa edilecek bir Trans-Hazar Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 ile Azerbaycan \u00fczerinden ekonomik olarak tedarik edebilecektir. Bu durumlar da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurularak, medeniyet co\u011frafyas\u0131nda etkin olmak isteyen yeni T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kan bu gibi b\u00fct\u00fcn imkanlar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirerek, lehine \u00e7evirmesi, bunu yaparken de, ilgili \u00fclkelerin de kazanc\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zetmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n

      Yani T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin, bat\u0131 blo\u011funun Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da oyuna s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yeni kart\u0131 olan s\u00fcnni-\u015fii \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na sebep verecek yakla\u015f\u0131mlarda bulunmas\u0131 ve bu kapsamda sadece \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fclemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 yerine, iki devletin de aras\u0131n\u0131 bularak, herkesin kabul edece\u011fi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler \u00fcretmesi daha yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

      Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrkiye:<\/p>\n

        \n
      • D\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kataca\u011f\u0131 bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ile, borcun net hesaplanmas\u0131nda hakemlik yapabilir.<\/li>\n
      • Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131n\u0131n sevkiyat\u0131na devam etmesi konusunda garant\u00f6r olabilir.<\/li>\n
      • Bunun kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019daki baz\u0131 karl\u0131 projelerden hisse talep edebilir.<\/li>\n
      • T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131n\u0131n swap y\u00f6ntemi ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye naklinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        \u00d6zetle, bunlar gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin diplomatik\u00a0 giri\u015fimlere ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce kurgulayabilece\u011fi \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 alternatifler bulunabilmektedir. Bu sebeple, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve etkin bir \u00fclke olmak isteyen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin art\u0131k ger\u00e7ekten, elinin alt\u0131ndaki imkalar\u0131 kullanmas\u0131, hedefledi\u011fi co\u011frafyadaki b\u00fct\u00fcn sorunlara m\u00fcdahil olmas\u0131 ve \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00fcreten, garant\u00f6r \u00fclke olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n

        Medeniyet co\u011frafyam\u0131z bizim ise, geli\u015fmelere \u201csadece bizi etkiler mi\u201d nazar\u0131nda yakla\u015fmam\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir. O co\u011frafyadaki b\u00fct\u00fcn geli\u015fmeler bizi ilgilendirmelidir. Ve herkes bizden \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm beklemelidir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m uygulamada \u015fu an i\u00e7in zor g\u00f6r\u00fclse dahi, b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeyi tetikleyece\u011finden, ayd\u0131nl\u0131k ak\u0131betin temelini haz\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

        \n

        O\u011fuzhan AKYENER<\/strong><\/p>\n

        TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        T\u00fcrkmenistan, \u0130ran ile devam eden gaz ticaretini, sonu\u00e7 al\u0131namayan m\u00fczakereler neticesinde durdurma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. 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