{"id":10899,"date":"2022-01-31T12:22:58","date_gmt":"2022-01-31T09:22:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=10899"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:11","slug":"enerjide-kuresel-dalgalanmalar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/enerjide-kuresel-dalgalanmalar\/","title":{"rendered":"Enerji\u0307de K\u00fcresel Dalgalanmalar"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

O\u011fuzhan Akyener<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 90 dolar seviyesini ge\u00e7ti! Neden mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bir\u00e7ok sebebi var ama;<\/p>\n

-Birincil sebebi pandemi d\u00f6nemindeki fiyat krizinin etkilerini hen\u00fcz \u00fczerinden atamam\u0131\u015f olan b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu durum! \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc petrol arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilmek ve artt\u0131rabilmek i\u00e7in s\u00fcrekli yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmakta. Fakat 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok petrol ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclke \u00f6yle derin yaralar ald\u0131 ki, arz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fctme hedeflerinin yeniden normale d\u00f6nebilmesi i\u00e7in biraz daha zamana ihtiya\u00e7 var gibi\u2026 Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla; arz\u0131n talebe ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde (k\u0131smi de olsa) sorun var!<\/p>\n

-ABD ve \u00c7in gibi dev t\u00fcketicilerin stoklar\u0131 azald\u0131.<\/p>\n

-Talep Omicron varyant\u0131na ra\u011fmen artmaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

-\u00c7ok az da olsa Rusya \u2013 Ukrayna gerilimi alg\u0131sal anlamda s\u00fcreci etkiliyor\u2026<\/p>\n

100 dolarlar\u0131n \u00fczerini g\u00f6recek miyiz?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fcz k\u0131\u015f; sevkiyatlar\u0131n aksamas\u0131, talebin ko\u015fullara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak artmaya devam etmesi, k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve do\u011falgaz piyasalar\u0131ndaki arz ve fiyat problemleri, do\u011fal afetler sebebiyle (kas\u0131rga vs.) \u00fcretimin b\u00f6lgesel olarak negatif etkilenmesi, spek\u00fclatif politik gerginlikler gibi nedenlerle k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli 100 $ band\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir.<\/p>\n

Fakat art\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde dengeleyen OPEC+; ABD ve \u00c7in\u2019i tamam\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na alacak ve alternatif kaynaklar\u0131n ekme\u011fine ya\u011f s\u00fcrecek seviyelerde \u00e7ok kal\u0131nmas\u0131na m\u00fcsaade etmeyecektir\u2026<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama 85 \u2013 95 $ aras\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 bir fiyat band\u0131n\u0131n makul oldu\u011funu ifade edebiliriz.<\/p>\n

Do\u011falgaz ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni krizler beklenilebilir mi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130ki enerji t\u00fcr\u00fc i\u00e7in de yeniden arz ve fiyat krizleriyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Hatta \u015fu anki durumda dahi, ortalama Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131 27 $\/mmBTU seviyelerini, Asya k\u00f6m\u00fcr piyasa fiyatlar\u0131 ise y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana yakalanan art\u0131\u015f trendi ile yeniden 230 $\/ton seviyelerini yakalam\u0131\u015f durumda\u2026<\/p>\n

Bu arz ve lojistik alan\u0131ndaki yetersizliklerin neden oldu\u011fu fiyat krizlerinin zaten devam ediyor oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermekte\u2026<\/p>\n

Daha da sertle\u015fen k\u0131\u015f ko\u015fullar\u0131, talep ve nakliyeyi biraz daha tetiklerse; fiyatlar\u0131n Avrupa i\u00e7in 50 $\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc, k\u00f6m\u00fcr i\u00e7in ise yeniden 300 $\u2019lar\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6rmesi ihtimali ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecektir. Fakat bu kriz ortam\u0131 mart ortas\u0131 gibi (hava ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n biraz \u0131l\u0131manla\u015fmas\u0131 ile) normale yakla\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla nisan ay\u0131nda yeniden;<\/p>\n

-Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in 18 $\/mmBTU,<\/p>\n

-Asya gaz fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in 25 $\/mmBTU,<\/p>\n

-Asya k\u00f6m\u00fcr fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in 140 $\/ton seviyelerini g\u00f6rebilece\u011fiz\u2026<\/p>\n

Ya\u015fanan bu krizler k\u00fcresel enflasyonu nas\u0131l etkiliyor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte enflasyon; artan enerji maliyetleri, pandemi d\u00f6neminde \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan destek paketlerinin sebep oldu\u011fu likidite balonu, navlun ve lojistik fiyatlar\u0131 sebebiyle artmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te enerji maliyetlerindeki yerine g\u00f6re birka\u00e7 kat\u0131 bulan art\u0131\u015flar ise \u00f6zellikle enerji yo\u011funlu\u011fu y\u00fcksek olan b\u00fct\u00fcn sekt\u00f6rlerdeki enflasyon miktarlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkilemektedir. Bu da direkt ve dolayl\u0131 etkileri ile di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere de yay\u0131lmakta ve s\u00fcre\u00e7 zorla\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Rusya \u2013 Ukrayna gerilimi nereye gider? S\u00fcre\u00e7leri nas\u0131l etkiler?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusya \u2013 Ukrayna geriliminin bir s\u0131cak sava\u015fa d\u00f6nme ihtimali (her t\u00fcrl\u00fc siyasi s\u00f6ylemin aksine) \u00e7ok zay\u0131ft\u0131r. Bu sebeple gerginlik devam etse de reel anlamda s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin etkilenece\u011fi bir durum ya\u015fanmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya\u2019n\u0131n petrol veya do\u011falgaz arz\u0131n\u0131 durdurmas\u0131 veya durdurmaya zorlanmas\u0131 pek muhtemel de\u011fildir. Tabii gerginlik piyasalar\u0131 alg\u0131sal anlamda negatif etkilemeye devam edecektir. Etki oran\u0131 da di\u011fer fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak kendini hissettirecektir.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  O\u011fuzhan Akyener \u00a0 Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 90 dolar seviyesini ge\u00e7ti! Neden mi? Bir\u00e7ok sebebi var ama; -Birincil sebebi pandemi d\u00f6nemindeki fiyat krizinin etkilerini hen\u00fcz \u00fczerinden\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[103,1186],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-10899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-enerji","tag-kuresel"],"yoast_head":"\nEnerji\u0307de K\u00fcresel Dalgalanmalar - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/enerjide-kuresel-dalgalanmalar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Enerji\u0307de K\u00fcresel Dalgalanmalar - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  O\u011fuzhan Akyener \u00a0 Brent petrol fiyatlar\u0131 90 dolar seviyesini ge\u00e7ti! 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