{"id":11098,"date":"2022-03-07T20:17:20","date_gmt":"2022-03-07T17:17:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=11098"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:10","slug":"rusya-ukrayna-2-enerji-karti-halen-rusyada-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/rusya-ukrayna-2-enerji-karti-halen-rusyada-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Rusya – Ukrayna (2): Enerji\u0307 Karti Halen Rusya\u2019da (1)"},"content":{"rendered":"

 <\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya ilk askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulundu\u011fu g\u00fcnden bu yana devam eden i\u015fgal s\u00fcrecinde neredeyse birbiriyle etkile\u015fimli olarak b\u00fct\u00fcn enerji t\u00fcrlerinde fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmelenmeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6rebilmekteyiz.<\/p>\n

D\u00fcnya Eyl\u00fcl 2021\u2019de (pandemi akabinde g\u00fc\u00e7lenen talep ve yat\u0131r\u0131m eksiklikleri sebebiyle yetersiz kalan arz sebebiyle) ba\u015f g\u00f6steren enerji krizinin belki de \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir dalgas\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

(Yetersiz arz\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda) Rusya ile Ukrayna aras\u0131ndaki gerilimin ad\u0131m ad\u0131m t\u0131rmanarak sava\u015fa do\u011fru evirilmesi ve akabinde gittik\u00e7e sertle\u015fen yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla (resmi anlamda enerji ticareti yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015f olsa da) Rusya\u2019n\u0131n enerji ihracat\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde psikolojik olarak d\u0131\u015flanmaya ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck fiyat krizlerine kap\u0131 aralam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bir taraftan AB \u00fclkeleri Rusya\u2019dan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l kurgulayacaklar\u0131 konusunda kara kara d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrken, ABD ve \u00c7in gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 da; b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerini ve b\u00fct\u00e7eleri negatif etkileyen bu fiyat krizini nas\u0131l a\u015facaklar\u0131n\u0131 sorgulamak durumunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

ABD taraf\u0131ndan k\u00f6r\u00fcklenen ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n da kanl\u0131 resti ile Ukrayna i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir y\u0131k\u0131ma d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fen bu gerilim, sadece ilgili taraflar\u0131 de\u011fil, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 negatif etkilemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

AB Rus gaz\u0131ndan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi modeli kurgulayabilecek mi?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu soruya zamana ve neticelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ko\u015fullu cevaplar vermek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

\u015e\u00f6yle ki;<\/p>\n

-K\u0131sa vadede (uzun s\u00fcreli mevcut kontratlar, ikame g\u00fczerg\u00e2hlardan teknik olarak LNG ve\/veya boru hatt\u0131 gaz\u0131 temin edebilme imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 ve (ABD, Katar, Cezayir, Nijerya, Avustralya gibi) olas\u0131 ilave gaz tedarik\u00e7ilerinin fazladan ihracat kapasiteleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda) AB\u2019nin Rusya\u2019dan gaz almadan s\u00fcreci y\u00f6netebilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

-Ortalama 10 y\u0131l sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in ise: kurulabilecek yeni LNG tesisleri ve yenilenebilir yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ile do\u011falgaz\u0131n elektrikteki pay\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi neticesinde Rus gaz\u0131 olmadan AB\u2019nin enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fini y\u00f6netebilmesi k\u0131smen m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilecektir!<\/p>\n

-Fakat!!! Orta vadeli senaryonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilmesi i\u00e7in gerekli ilave maliyetler AB\u2019nin dahi b\u00fct\u00e7e dengelerini bozacakt\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda do\u011falgaz, k\u00f6m\u00fcr, petrol, uranyum ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n hepsinde b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fler s\u00f6z konusu olacak, bu durum da Rusya\u2019y\u0131 d\u0131\u015flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerini negatif etkileyecektir! Ayr\u0131ca, LNG\u2019ye daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale gelen AB i\u00e7in hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak tedarik s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin aksamas\u0131 \u00e7ok daha belirsiz ve y\u00f6netilemez dalgal\u0131 fiyat krizlerinin her k\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/p>\n

-Uzun vadede ise (2030 sonras\u0131nda), k\u00fcresel arz\u0131n talebi kar\u015f\u0131layamayacak olaca\u011f\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi dikkate al\u0131narak; Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortam\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilmesinin pek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131labilecektir.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla; AB\u2019nin Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 orta vadede ad\u0131m ad\u0131m daha fazla d\u0131\u015flamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131; Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Asya piyasalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesine ve Asya spot fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrekli olarak AB\u2019nin alt\u0131nda seyretmesine de sebep olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu da ABD\u2019nin kabul etmek istemeyece\u011fi bir durumdur.<\/p>\n

Orta vadeli, y\u00fcksek maliyetli se\u00e7ene\u011fin ba\u015fka y\u00f6nlerden de AB i\u00e7in riskleri bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

-Do\u011falgaz arz ve kaynak geli\u015ftirme anlam\u0131nda; bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede (kaynak geli\u015ftirebilmek, \u00fcretimi artt\u0131rabilmek ve sevkiyat\u0131 sa\u011flayabilmek i\u00e7in) b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131, zorlu ihtilaflar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunlar\u0131n \u00fcstesinden gelinmesi gerekecektir.<\/p>\n

-\u0130ran bu ba\u011flamda bu listenin en \u00fcst s\u0131ralar\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

-ABD, Katar, Nijerya, Avustralya ve Cezayir gibi mevcut LNG ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n da saha-tesis bazl\u0131 teknik \u00fcretim kapasiteleri ve bu kapasitelerin uzun vadeli kontratlarla (\u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu Asya piyasalar\u0131na olacak \u015fekilde) teminat alt\u0131na al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f hacimleri bellidir. Bu sebeple bu gibi \u00fclkelerden de Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 ikame edecek hacimler tedarik elde edilebilece\u011fini beklemek pek de makul de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

-Elektrik perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; hi\u00e7bir \u00fclke elektrik grid sisteminin sadece yenilenebilir gibi orta d\u00fczey y\u00fck\u00fc sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik ve hava ko\u015fullar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fken arz\u0131 olan kaynaklarla sa\u011flamak (teknik olarak) istemeyecektir. Almanya\u2019da bu ba\u011flamda ortaya at\u0131lan ifadeler bu y\u00fczden siyasidir.<\/p>\n

-Baz y\u00fck d\u00fczeyleri n\u00fckleer ve (ye\u015fil hedeflere ra\u011fmen) k\u00f6m\u00fcr ile sa\u011flansa da, peak y\u00fck d\u00fczeyleri i\u00e7in azalan HES kapasitesi yine do\u011falgaz\u0131 gerekli k\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n

-Hidrojen devrimi i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz teknik, teknolojik ve finansal altyap\u0131 yeterli de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n

-S\u00fcrekli y\u00fcksek seviyede devam eden petrol fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn ABD ve AB piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 (\u00f6zellikle ABD) negatif etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n

-Y\u00fckselen fiyatlarla m\u00fccadele edebilmek i\u00e7in (ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olunamasa da) ABD ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerdeki petrol arama-\u00fcretim s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ve hatta geli\u015fmemi\u015f \u00fclkelerdeki k\u00f6m\u00fcr arama-\u00fcretim s\u00fcre\u00e7leri desteklenmek zorunda kal\u0131nacak ve COP26\u2019da ortaya koyulan (ve AB\u2019nin merkez politika haline getirdi\u011fi) b\u00fct\u00fcn ye\u015filimsi hedefler suya d\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan ortaya at\u0131lan (i\u00e7i bo\u015f) 10 maddelik \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm plan\u0131n\u0131n da ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 neticeler do\u011furmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir!<\/p>\n

\u00d6zetle bu riskler ve de\u011fi\u015fkenler perspektifinde Rus gaz\u0131ndan ar\u0131nm\u0131\u015f bir AB kurgulamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktansa, b\u00f6lgeye bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 getirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak ve normale d\u00f6nmek i\u00e7in gayret sarf etmek daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve uygulanabilir bir se\u00e7enektir.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

DEVAMINI YARIN OKUYAB\u0130L\u0130RS\u0130N\u0130Z\u2026
\n>O\u011fuzhan Akyner<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya ilk askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulundu\u011fu g\u00fcnden bu yana devam eden i\u015fgal s\u00fcrecinde neredeyse birbiriyle etkile\u015fimli olarak b\u00fct\u00fcn enerji t\u00fcrlerinde fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmelenmeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6rebilmekteyiz. D\u00fcnya Eyl\u00fcl…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106,117,879,135,108],"tags":[134],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-11098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-politika-diplomasi-ihtilaflar-guvenlik","category-rusya","category-tr","tag-rusya"],"yoast_head":"\nRusya - Ukrayna (2): Enerji\u0307 Karti Halen Rusya\u2019da (1) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/rusya-ukrayna-2-enerji-karti-halen-rusyada-1\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Rusya - Ukrayna (2): Enerji\u0307 Karti Halen Rusya\u2019da (1) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019ya ilk askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulundu\u011fu g\u00fcnden bu yana devam eden i\u015fgal s\u00fcrecinde neredeyse birbiriyle etkile\u015fimli olarak b\u00fct\u00fcn enerji t\u00fcrlerinde fiyatlar\u0131n yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmelenmeye devam etti\u011fini g\u00f6rebilmekteyiz. 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