-T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de misafir etti\u011fimiz yabanc\u0131 n\u00fcfusun, bize faydas\u0131 ve zararlar\u0131 nelerdir?<\/p>\n
-G\u00f6\u00e7menlerin idaresi y\u00f6netilemez bir boyutta m\u0131d\u0131r?<\/p>\n
\n
-T\u00fcrk Devlet gelene\u011fi perspektifinden bu tablo nas\u0131l okunmal\u0131d\u0131r?<\/p>\n
-Bu okuma yap\u0131l\u0131rken, nelere dikkat edilmelidir?<\/p>\n
-S\u00fcre\u00e7 nas\u0131l bir planlama ile y\u00f6netilmelidir?<\/p>\n
-Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin ulus devlet yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 riske atabilecek midir?<\/p>\n
-Suriyeliler ve di\u011fer m\u00fclteciler geri g\u00f6nderilebilecek midir?<\/p>\n
-M\u00fclteciler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kal\u0131rlar ise uzun vadede \u00fclkedeki dinamikleri etkileyecek bir arg\u00fcman olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabilecek midir?<\/p>\n
-M\u00fclteciler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerine ve ekonomisine katk\u0131 sa\u011flamakta m\u0131d\u0131r?<\/p>\n
****<\/p>\n
Bu gibi sorulara cevap verebilmek i\u00e7in, \u00f6ncelikle yukar\u0131da da ifade edilen veri eksikli\u011fi hususuna bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm getirmek gereklidir. Aksi halde ortaya koyulacak yakla\u015f\u0131mlar tutarl\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte bu ba\u011flamda g\u00f6\u00e7 ve m\u00fclteci y\u00f6netimi d\u00e2hilinde:<\/p>\n
-Yapay zek\u00e2 destekli, co\u011frafi bilgi sistemleri tabanl\u0131 modellerle s\u00fcreci yorumlayabilen dijital platformlar kurulmas\u0131,<\/p>\n
-Her m\u00fcltecinin kay\u0131t alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 ve kay\u0131t alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131,<\/p>\n
-Hatta bunun i\u00e7in gerekirse uygun maliyetli teknolojiler ile takip cihazlar\u0131 dahi kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir.<\/p>\n
M\u00fcltecilerin \u015fehir ve mahalle de\u011fi\u015fimleri, istihdam s\u00fcre\u00e7leri, ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131, temel ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n hangi d\u00fczeyde kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131\u011f\u0131, e\u011fitim ve sa\u011fl\u0131k imk\u00e2nlar\u0131ndan ne \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde faydaland\u0131klar\u0131, ikamet ettikleri b\u00f6lgede nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131land\u0131klar\u0131 ve nas\u0131l davrand\u0131klar\u0131, ilgili b\u00f6lgenin k\u0131r\u0131lgan y\u00f6nleri, geri d\u00f6nmeye g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fc olup olmad\u0131klar\u0131, T\u00fcrk devletine ba\u011fl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 ve sempatileri, zorluk ve kaos durumlar\u0131nda nas\u0131l hareket edebilecekleri gibi b\u00fct\u00fcn s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin ilgili veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda analiz edilmedi\u011fi bir model pek de ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan yine de yukar\u0131da y\u00f6neltilen sorulara veri eksikli\u011fi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilerek, genel cevaplar vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsak;<\/p>\n
-T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bar\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 5,6 milyonu bulan yabanc\u0131 ve 3,8 milyonu bulan kay\u0131tl\u0131 Suriyeli say\u0131s\u0131 y\u00f6netilemez seviyede risk ihtiva etmemektedir. Evet, devletin bekas\u0131na ve hedeflenen politikalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik riskler mevcuttur fakat bunlar halen y\u00f6netilebilecek d\u00fczeylerdedir. \u00d6te yandan etnik anlamda k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da; Hatay gibi \u015fehirlerimiz hari\u00e7, hen\u00fcz korkulacak bir tehdit d\u00fczeyi mevcut de\u011fildir. Yine de, bu ba\u011flamdaki tehdit d\u00fczeylerinin analiz edilirken, devletin ekonomi ve istikrar altyap\u0131s\u0131, hali haz\u0131rdaki ter\u00f6r, etnik ve mezhepsel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar, siyasi kutupla\u015fma, ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar gibi k\u0131r\u0131lgan y\u00f6nlerinin de farkl\u0131 senaryolar d\u00e2hilinde dikkate al\u0131narak \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 ve alternatif yorumlar geli\u015ftirilmesi \u00f6nemlidir. \u0130\u015fte bu ba\u011flamda olu\u015fturulabilecek yapay zek\u00e2 destekli modellerle, \u00fclkemizin d\u0131\u015f politika hedeflerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar d\u00e2hilinde ulusal kabiliyetler ve imk\u00e2nlar de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde ve olas\u0131 zafiyet durumlar\u0131nda, misafir edilen yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n nas\u0131l aksiyon alacaklar\u0131n\u0131n alternatif senaryolar d\u00e2hilinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. \u00d6rnek vermek gerekirse, \u00fclkemize uygulanacak bir ambargo, \u00fclkemizin d\u00e2hil olaca\u011f\u0131 bir askeri m\u00fcdahale veya sava\u015f, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck boyutlarda ekonomik krizler, yeni ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olay zincirleri, etnik farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n ka\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 akabinde olu\u015fabilecek isyanlar ve y\u00fckselen ter\u00f6r ihtimalleri d\u00e2hilinde ilgili yabanc\u0131 uyruklu unsurlar\u0131n davran\u0131\u015fsal e\u011filimlerinden (en az\u0131ndan b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda) emin olunmas\u0131 gereklidir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla risk ve k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131k d\u00fczeyleri ancak bu analizler sonras\u0131nda daha net bir bi\u00e7imde yorumlanabilecektir.<\/p>\n
-T\u00fcrk devlet gelene\u011fi perspektifinden m\u00fclteci ve yabanc\u0131 misafir hususuna de\u011finecek olursak; tarihteki ilk T\u00fcrk devletlerinden bu yana; mazluma el uzatan, sadece kendisinin egemen oldu\u011fu co\u011frafyay\u0131 de\u011fil, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 kendisinin nizam vermekle y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fc oldu\u011fu bir b\u00f6lge olarak kabul eden T\u00fcrk devlet anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Bu durumda bir T\u00fcrk devleti (kabiliyetleri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcs\u00fcnde) tabii ki, Suriye\u2019de, Afganistan\u2019da ve di\u011fer s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 co\u011frafyalarda ya\u015fanan durumlara seyirci kalmayacak bir d\u00fcsturla hareket edecek ve kendisine s\u0131\u011f\u0131nan mazlumlara kol kanat gerecektir. Kald\u0131 ki \u00f6zellikle Suriye\u2019nin (g\u00f6\u00e7men kabul etti\u011fimiz Halep vilayetimiz \u015fehirlerinden olu\u015fan) \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn devletimizin kurucu akl\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan dahi misak-\u0131 milli anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyetinin gayr\u0131 resmi miras\u0131, namusu ve par\u00e7as\u0131 konumunda kabul edildi\u011fi unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r. Her ne kadar e\u011fitim d\u00fczeyi, sosyo-k\u00fclt\u00fcrel altyap\u0131 ve (ayn\u0131 dine mensup olsak da) mezhepsel farkl\u0131l\u0131klar araya mesafeler koysa da, yine de tarihi birliktelik az\u0131msanmayacak sorumluluklar getirebilecektir.<\/p>\n
-Bunlar\u0131n da \u00f6tesinde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kendi ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde dahi Suriye\u2019de ya\u015fanan olaylara seyirci kalma ve Kuzey Suriye\u2019de bir ter\u00f6r devleti olu\u015fumuna m\u00fcsaade etme l\u00fcks\u00fc de bulunmamaktad\u0131r. \u0130\u015fte m\u00fclteci hususunun t\u00fcm bu etmenler dikkate al\u0131narak yorumlanmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
-\u0130\u015fte t\u00fcm bu risklerle birlikte f\u0131rsatlar da ihtiva eden s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin y\u00f6netimi d\u00e2hilinde \u00e7ok kapsaml\u0131, alternatifli ve yerine g\u00f6re hataya dahi tahamm\u00fcl edilemeyecek d\u00fczeyde detayl\u0131 planlamalar\u0131n yap\u0131labilmesi gerekmektedir. Bunun i\u00e7in de yapay zek\u00e2 destekli sistemlerin kurgulanmas\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir. (TESPAM Teknoloji bu perspektifte baz\u0131 proje \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.)<\/p>\n
-Mevcut durum, di\u011fer bir ifade ile d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan kabul edilen g\u00f6\u00e7men say\u0131s\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyetinin ulus devlet yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 riske atacak d\u00fczeyde de\u011fildir. \u00d6te yandan, bir cihan imparatorlu\u011fundan bir ulus devlet modeline d\u00f6nmek zorunda kalan T\u00fcrk devletinin yerine g\u00f6re (d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcrekli ka\u015f\u0131nan) etnik ve mezhepsel k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131klar\u0131 bertaraf edebilecek hamleler ile ulus devlet zeminini de daha farkl\u0131 ve kapsay\u0131c\u0131 bir d\u00fczleme ta\u015f\u0131yabilme kabiliyeti de mevcuttur. Bu durum tamam\u0131yla T\u00fcrk devletinin \u00e7a\u011f\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re uygulayaca\u011f\u0131 uzun vadeli politikalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n
-T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ya\u015fayan yabanc\u0131lar tabii ki s\u0131n\u0131r d\u0131\u015f\u0131 edilebilecektir. Fakat bu durum g\u00f6n\u00fcl k\u0131rarak de\u011fil, g\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcl\u00fck esas\u0131na dayal\u0131 olarak, adil bir \u00fcslupla \u015fekillenmelidir. Aksi halde bunca emek harcanan toplumlar, d\u00f6necekleri \u00fclkelerde T\u00fcrk devletinin g\u00f6n\u00fclda\u015f\u0131 olabilecek iken, d\u00fc\u015fman\u0131 haline gelebilecektir. \u0130\u015fte bu dengenin g\u00f6zetilmesi gereklidir. \u00d6te yandan, muhakkak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yerle\u015fen, hayat kuran ve buradaki imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 kendi \u00fclkesine nazaran daha konforlu bulan bir\u00e7ok m\u00fclteciyi geri g\u00f6ndermek \u00e7ok zor olacakt\u0131r. Bunun i\u00e7in \u00e7ok ince, zor, zaman alan ve kapsaml\u0131 bir planlamayla birlikte g\u00f6n\u00fcllere temas eden bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma y\u00fcr\u00fctmek gereklidir.<\/p>\n
-Mevcut m\u00fcltecilerin tamam\u0131 \u015fayet T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den g\u00f6nderilemez ve sosyal-k\u00fclt\u00fcrel-ekonomik uyum s\u00fcreci sa\u011flanamaz ise uzun vadede b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bir risk olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabilecektir.<\/p>\n
-Muhakkak b\u00fcy\u00fcme GSYIH perspektifinden okundu\u011funda, her yeni m\u00fclteci bir anlamda \u00fclkenin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine katk\u0131 sa\u011flamaktad\u0131r. Fakat mevcut konjonkt\u00fcrde m\u00fcltecilerin reel anlamda getirdikleri d\u00f6viz ve sonras\u0131nda \u00fcretime s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir katk\u0131lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda onlar\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 ve gelmeleri akabinde de\u011fi\u015fen dengelere y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131n ve maliyetlerin hesaplanarak k\u0131yaslanmas\u0131 gerekmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda net bir veri seti olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in analiz yapabilmek g\u00fc\u00e7 de olsa, \u00fclkenin b\u00fct\u00e7esine m\u00fclteciler sebebiyle milyarlarca dolar ek y\u00fck bindirildi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011finden yola \u00e7\u0131karak, ekonomik katk\u0131 oran\u0131n\u0131n eksilerde olma ihtimalinin daha b\u00fcy\u00fck oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecektir. Tabii bazen ulusal politik hedefler do\u011frultusunda ekonomik zararlar dahi g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilebilecektir.<\/p>\n
Buradan da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere, g\u00f6\u00e7 s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin idaresi ve bu ba\u011flamda politikalar geli\u015ftirilebilmesi zor, kompleks ve yan\u0131lma pay\u0131 y\u00fcksek olan bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir. Bu s\u00fcrecin daha ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir \u015fekilde ifa edilebilmesi i\u00e7in hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz kapsaml\u0131 veri setleri ile yapay zek\u00e2 destekli bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ortam\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fturulabilmesi \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrk devleti kendisi i\u00e7in risklerle birlikte f\u0131rsatlara da zemin haz\u0131rlayabilecek bu zor s\u00fcreci y\u00f6netebilmeye kadirdir.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\nO\u011fuzhan Akyener<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda sormu\u015ftuk: -T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de misafir etti\u011fimiz yabanc\u0131 n\u00fcfusun, bize faydas\u0131 ve zararlar\u0131 nelerdir? -G\u00f6\u00e7menlerin idaresi y\u00f6netilemez bir boyutta m\u0131d\u0131r? -T\u00fcrk Devlet gelene\u011fi perspektifinden bu tablo\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13099,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106,879,1096,108],"tags":[1176,307],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-11620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","category-politika-diplomasi-ihtilaflar-guvenlik","category-sosyoloji","category-tr","tag-goc","tag-suriye"],"yoast_head":"\n
Suri\u0307yeli\u0307ler Ve G\u00f6\u00e7 \u00dczeri\u0307ne 2 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/suriyeliler-ve-goc-uzerine-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Suri\u0307yeli\u0307ler Ve G\u00f6\u00e7 \u00dczeri\u0307ne 2 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda sormu\u015ftuk: -T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de misafir etti\u011fimiz yabanc\u0131 n\u00fcfusun, bize faydas\u0131 ve zararlar\u0131 nelerdir? -G\u00f6\u00e7menlerin idaresi y\u00f6netilemez bir boyutta m\u0131d\u0131r? -T\u00fcrk Devlet gelene\u011fi 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