{"id":12528,"date":"2022-09-10T09:31:28","date_gmt":"2022-09-10T06:31:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=12528"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:08","slug":"iklim-degisikliginin-uluslarararasi-guvenlik-politikalarina-etkileri-ve-islam-dunyasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/iklim-degisikliginin-uluslarararasi-guvenlik-politikalarina-etkileri-ve-islam-dunyasi\/","title":{"rendered":"I\u0307kli\u0307m De\u011fi\u0307\u015fi\u0307kli\u0307\u011fi\u0307ni\u0307n Uluslarararasi G\u00fcvenli\u0307k Poli\u0307ti\u0307kalarina Etki\u0307leri\u0307 Ve I\u0307slam D\u00fcnyasi"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>O\u011fuzhan Akyener \/ TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u00d6ZET<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131na d\u00e2hil edilen ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 daha fazla etkisi alt\u0131na alan bir realitedir. Fakat b\u00fcy\u00fcyen bu tehdit ile m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda, k\u00fcresel bazda etkin ve ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 bir ortak politika ortaya koyulamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Mevcut giri\u015fimler ise yeteri kadar fark\u0131ndal\u0131k olu\u015fturamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, yerine g\u00f6re ger\u00e7ek anlamda uygulanabilir ve\/veya adil de de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n as\u0131l m\u00fcsebbibi zaten kendisini \u201cgeli\u015fmi\u015f\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlayan \u00fclkelerdir. Bu \u00fclkeler f\u00fctursuzca giri\u015ftikleri s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc yar\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, kanla kopard\u0131klar\u0131 kaynaklar\u0131 bencilce kendi sanayi, teknoloji ve altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmekte kullanm\u0131\u015flar ve k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmay\u0131 tetiklemi\u015flerdir. \u015eimdi de, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten kendileri de zarar g\u00f6recek diye, sahip olduklar\u0131 teknolojik ve finansal avantajlar do\u011frultusunda b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyaya CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m politikalar\u0131 telkinlerinde bulunmaktad\u0131rlar. Fakat bu telkinler ne yaz\u0131k ki do\u011fru hedefler olsa da, adil ve uygulanabilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in makul de\u011fillerdir.<\/p>\n<p>Ortaya koyulan CO2 hedefleri adil de\u011fildir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc her \u00fclke ve toplum ayn\u0131 \u015fartlara ve f\u0131rsatlara sahip de\u011fildir. Ayr\u0131ca s\u00f6zde \u201cgeli\u015fmi\u015fler\u201d taraf\u0131ndan, \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201dlere y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan g\u00f6stermelik birka\u00e7 proje ve yat\u0131r\u0131m da adaleti tesis etmek ve yeterli alg\u0131 olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in k\u00e2fi de\u011fildir. \u00d6te yandan makul da de\u011fildir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc fakir toplumlardaki refah seviyesi ve n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda olu\u015fan enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bast\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterli kaynak, finans ve teknik altyap\u0131 mevcut de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 incelendi\u011finde, gelecekteki n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck paya sahip olan sosyal yap\u0131 fakir ve orta seviyedeki toplumlard\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan mezhepsel bir yakla\u015f\u0131mda bulunuldu\u011funda ise, y\u00fcksek n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve sahip oldu\u011fu gen\u00e7 oran\u0131 ile \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 bu denklemdeki en etkin de\u011fi\u015fken olacakt\u0131r. Bu perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ekonomiden, kalk\u0131nmaya, enerji t\u00fcketiminden, CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na kadar her alanda k\u00fcresel dengeler \u00fczerinde gittik\u00e7e artan bir etki oran\u0131na sahip olacakt\u0131r. Bu sebeple, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 merkezli bir iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi politikas\u0131, hem \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki g\u00fcvenlik risklerinin bertaraf edilmesi, hem de k\u00fcresel bazdaki politikalar\u0131n daha etkin ve adil uygulanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in de k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma uzun vadeli gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir tehdittir ve bu minvalde ancak ortak m\u00fccadele ile ba\u015far\u0131 sa\u011flanabilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumun idraki ile bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, \u00f6ncelikle iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011finden bahsedilerek, mevcut politikalar\u0131n etkisi ele al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ard\u0131ndan, enerjinin k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmadaki rol\u00fcne de\u011finilmi\u015f ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7leri \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 perspektifinden incelendikten sonra, uygulanabilir baz\u0131 stratejik hedeflerden bahsedilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Anahtar Kelimeler:<\/strong> \u0130lkim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, G\u00fcvenlik, K\u00fcresel Tehditler, \u0130slam D\u00fcnyas\u0131<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>ABSRACT<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Climate change is a reality that is included in the scope of international security policies and gradually affects the whole world. However, a globally effective and successfully joint policy that combats this threat has not been put forward. On the other hand, existing initiatives do not create enough awareness, and they are not applicable in real life and \/ or fair, depending on the region to be applied.<\/p>\n<p>First of all, the real causes of global warming are the countries that define them as &#8220;developed&#8221;. In the race for colonialism, these countries selfishly used the resources that they had plucked with blood to strengthen their industry, technology and infrastructure, and naturally triggered global warming. Now, their technological and financial advantages make the whole world inculcate CO2 emission policies, in case they will suffer from this process. But while these suggestions are unfortunately correct targets, they are not reasonable for a fair and viable response.<\/p>\n<p>The proposed CO2 targets are unfair because none of the countries and societies do not have the same conditions and opportunities. In addition, a few projects and investments made by the so-called &#8220;developed&#8221; for the &#8220;undeveloped&#8221; are not enough to establish justice and create sufficient perception. On the other hand, energy is also unreasonable because there are not enough resources, financial and technical infrastructure to suppress the welfare level and hunger of the population in poor societies.<\/p>\n<p>From the social sight, the largest population growth will be occurred by the poor and middle-level societies. On the other hand, from the religious perspective, the Islamic world will be the most effective variable in this equation with its high population and the proportion of young people it has. From this view, the Islamic world will have an increasing impact rate on the global balances; from economy to development and from energy consumption to CO2 emissions. For this reason, an integrated climate change policy in the Islamic world is important both for the elimination of security risks of the Islamic world and for a more effective and applicable global CO2 policies.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, although global warming seems to be a long-term security risk for the Islamic world, it is a strategic issue where success will only be achieved through a joint struggle.<\/p>\n<p>From this view, in this study, after mentioning the priority of climate change effects on security policies, the real impact of the existing policies was discussed. Then, the role of energy in global warming was analyzed and after examining the climate change processes from the perspective of the Islamic world, some applicable strategic goals also were mentioned.<\/p>\n<p>Bunu mu demek istediniz? Anahtar Kelimeler: \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, G\u00fcvenlik, K\u00fcresel Tehditler, \u0130slam D\u00fcnyas\u0131<\/p>\n<p><strong>Keywords:<\/strong> Climate Change, Security, Global Threats, Islamic World<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>G\u0130R\u0130\u015e<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya nezdinde artan etki oranlar\u0131 ile birlikte en \u00f6nemli g\u00fcndem maddeleri aras\u0131nda yer almaya ba\u015flamaktad\u0131r. Her ne kadar baz\u0131 devletler bu minvalde al\u0131nabilecek \u00f6nlem paketlerini realist ve birazda pragmatist kayg\u0131lar ile ikinci plana atabilseler de, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n neticeleri yava\u015f yava\u015f b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyecektir. Bu etkiler, uzun vadeli projeksiyonlarda kurgulanan ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme denklemlerinden, sosyolojik altyap\u0131ya kadar bir\u00e7ok beklentiyi ve ilgili politik hedefleri alt \u00fcst edebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma, her ne kadar \u00e7ok say\u0131daki de\u011fi\u015fken sebebiyle ger\u00e7ek anlamda tutarl\u0131 sim\u00fclasyonlar yap\u0131lamasa da, \u015fiddetini parabolik bir oranla artt\u0131racak ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n baz\u0131 yerlerinin sular alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na sebebiyet verirken, bir\u00e7ok b\u00f6lgenin de ya\u015fan\u0131lmaz hale gelmesine yol a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda k\u00fcresel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengeleri ile birlikte, b\u00f6lgesel kurgu ve stratejiler de de\u011fi\u015fmek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz zamanla su kaynaklar\u0131 \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemli hale gelecek, suya ekonomik olarak eri\u015fim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131narak, su g\u00fcvenli\u011fi hidrokarbon kaynaklar\u0131n dahi \u00f6tesinde zikredilen bir terim olarak pop\u00fcler literat\u00fcrde yerini alacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma neticesinde, artan s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n tetikleyece\u011fi kurakl\u0131k, g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fi konseptini de yine en stratejik uluslararas\u0131 arg\u00fcmanlardan bir tanesi haline getirecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu perspektiflerden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi her ne kadar \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilemez bir yap\u0131da ilerleyi\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrse de, en az\u0131ndan \u00fclkelerin ve siyasi birlikteliklerin uzun vadeli stratejik \u00f6nlemler geli\u015ftirdi\u011fi ve zamanla toplumsal sinir u\u00e7lar\u0131na daha fazla temas etmesiyle \u00f6nemi daha da ayyuka \u00e7\u0131kacak bir ulusal g\u00fcvenlik arg\u00fcman\u0131 olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zdad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zellikle, k\u00fcresel bir tehdit olmas\u0131 hasebiyle, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile m\u00fccadele ve bu m\u00fccadele \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik hedefler ba\u015far\u0131lamasa da, bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkenin bir araya gelerek, bu ba\u011flamda ortaya ortak \u00f6neriler ve uzun vadeler politikalar koyabilmesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu; sebebi ve etkileri b\u00fct\u00fcnsel bazda i\u015fleyen bir s\u00fcre\u00e7tir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 etkinlik tertip edilmi\u015f ve istenilen \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclerde uygulanamasa da, ortak kararlar al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.\u00a0 Bu ortak kararlar genellikle CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 merkeze alan fakat ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 olamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201d ve \u201cgeli\u015fmekte olan\u201d \u015feklinde tabir edilen \u00fclkeler ve toplumlar nezdinde adil olarak alg\u0131lanabilecek kabul edilebilirlikte de de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kendilerini \u201cgeli\u015fmi\u015f\u201d olarak niteleyen toplum ve devletlerin bir\u00e7o\u011fu zaten 18. Y\u00fczy\u0131ldan bu yana \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201d toplumlar\u0131n hidrokarbon kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6m\u00fcrerek, sanayilerini geli\u015ftirmi\u015f, y\u00fcksek teknolojik ve ekonomik imk\u00e2nlara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n as\u0131l m\u00fcsebbibi olmu\u015flard\u0131r. Gelinen noktada da, ilgili s\u00f6zde geli\u015fmi\u015f bencil medeniyetler,<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sahip olduklar\u0131 y\u00fcksek teknoloji ve finansal imk\u00e2nlara bakarak, kendileri gibi b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n da CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemleri uygulamas\u0131n\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Bu sayede k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma trendinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Bu ba\u011flamda b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n da yine kendilerince \u00fcretilen yeni teknolojileri sat\u0131n almak durumunda kalmas\u0131n\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Bu sayede k\u00fcresel y\u00f6netim basamaklar\u0131nda her daim en \u00fcst seviyede kalabilmeyi hedeflemektedirler.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Uluslararas\u0131 toplumun idrakine arz edilen bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, kesinlikle adil de\u011fildir. Adil olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in de uygulanabilir de\u011fildir. E\u011fer \u201cgeli\u015fmi\u015f\u201d kategoride tan\u0131mlanan devletler iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile ger\u00e7ek anlamda bir m\u00fccadele arzu ediyorlar ise, bu kapsamda \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201d olarak tan\u0131mlad\u0131klar\u0131 toplumlar\u0131n \u00fczerlerindeki finansal y\u00fck\u00fc omuzlamak durumundad\u0131r. Aksi takdirde s\u00f6m\u00fcrgeci ve bencil zihinlerin, kirli niyetleri ile ortaya att\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00f6zde \u00e7evreci ifadeler ve politik kurgular, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n daha da ya\u015fanmaz bir hal almas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7emeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz, anti-emperyalist ve adil bir \u00e7izgide d\u0131\u015f politika ortaya koyan ve ger\u00e7ek anlamda mazlumlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin medeniyet co\u011frafyas\u0131 olarak nitelendirilen \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n durumu \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ve k\u00fcresel anlamda belirleyicidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin haklar\u0131n\u0131 muhafaza niyetiyle \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131,<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Ekonomi,<\/li>\n<li>Finans,<\/li>\n<li>Teknoloji,<\/li>\n<li>Do\u011fal kaynaklar,<\/li>\n<li>Enerji t\u00fcketimi<\/li>\n<li>Ve t\u00fcm bunlarla ilintili olarak CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m potansiyeli projeksiyonlar\u0131 d\u00e2hilinde k\u00fcresel anlamda \u201cen \u00f6nemli\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc kazanacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu sebeple \u015fimdiden as\u0131rl\u0131k strateji ve politikalar ile \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 kendi b\u00fcnyesinde;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya dair global etki projeksiyonlar\u0131 geli\u015ftirme,<\/li>\n<li>Etki oranlar\u0131na g\u00f6re risk ve avantaj senaryolar\u0131 kurgulama,<\/li>\n<li>Riskleri bertaraf edebilmek i\u00e7in ortak politikalar ortaya koyma,<\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ile m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda global \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm \u00f6nerilerini b\u00fct\u00fcn insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n idrakine arz etme gibi baz\u0131 noktalarda entegrasyon s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini hayata ge\u00e7irmelidir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu pencereden bak\u0131larak, bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada \u00f6ncelikle k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n global etkilerinden ve b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in nas\u0131l bir risk ihtiva etti\u011finden bahsedilerek, bu ba\u011flamda \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n durumu ve nas\u0131l ortak g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131 geli\u015ftirebilece\u011fi yorumlanacakt\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan haz\u0131rlanan kurgunun daha realist bir modele oturtulmas\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ile m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcne dair daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i talep ve arz projeksiyonlar\u0131 ile birlikte uzun vadeli beklentiler de bahsedilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>K\u00dcRESEL ISINMA \u0130LE YEN\u0130DEN \u015eEK\u0130LLENEN G\u00dcVENL\u0130K R\u0130SKLER\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik konspeti gittik\u00e7e daha da artan etkileri ile birlikte hayat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmeye ba\u015flayan k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu riskler ile yeniden \u015fekillenmektedir. Her ne kadar bu risklerin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelere g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6sterse ve genellikle dolayl\u0131 etkilere sahip olsa da, asl\u0131nda k\u00fcresel anlamda odaklan\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken hususlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n getirdi\u011fi ve neden olaca\u011f\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131ca risklere a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da de\u011finilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma ile birlikte, ortalama hava s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 neticesinde bir\u00e7ok farkl\u0131 risk ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131 ana ba\u015fl\u0131klar alt\u0131nda inceledi\u011fimizde:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Mevsimlerin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc neticesinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \/ \u00e7\u0131kacak riskler:\n<ol>\n<li>Ya\u015fam Kalitesi: Y\u00fckselen s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve \u0131s\u0131 dalgalar\u0131 \u00f6ncelikle genel olarak ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131, hava kalitesini, biyolojik yap\u0131y\u0131 etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>G\u0131da G\u00fcvenli\u011fi: Ya\u011f\u0131\u015f periyot ve miktarlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, kurakla\u015fan topra\u011f\u0131n da etkisi ile tar\u0131msal \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi bozulacakt\u0131r. Bu direkt olarak ulusal g\u0131da g\u00fcvenli\u011fini etkileyecek \u00f6nemli bir problem halini alacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Sosyal Psikoloji: Toplum psikolojisi mevsimlerin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc, giderek azalan sonbahar ve ilkbahar gibi ara mevsimlerin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi sebepler neticesinde negatif etkilenecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Afetler: Mevsimlerin d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc neticesinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak olan daha fazla do\u011fal afet ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131, ekonomiyi, ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131, \u00fcretimi, enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 ve dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile g\u00fcvenli\u011fi negatif etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Yetersiz Su Kaynaklar\u0131: Artan su ihtiyac\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n azalan tatl\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n ihtiyac\u0131 gidermeden yetersiz kal\u0131\u015f\u0131, petrol kaynaklar\u0131nda tecr\u00fcbe etti\u011fimiz gibi, su g\u00fcvenli\u011fini en \u00f6nemli uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik arg\u00fcman\u0131 haline getirecektir. Su kaynaklar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fclkeler birbirleri i\u00e7in sava\u015fabilecekler ve bu durumdan uluslararas\u0131 sistem ciddi anlamda etkilenecektir. Bu ba\u011flamda daha 2050\u2019lere gelmeden d\u00fcnyadaki tatl\u0131 su arz\u0131n\u0131n talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fck huzursuzluklar\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecektir. Bu ba\u011flamda, Orta Do\u011fu, \u00c7in, G\u00fcney Afrika, ABD ve Orta Asya gibi \u00fclke ve b\u00f6lgeler \u00f6ncelikli risk ihtiva eden yerlerdir.<\/li>\n<li>Elektrik \u00dcretimi: Ayr\u0131ca suyun ve dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile su y\u00f6netiminin daha \u00f6nemli hale gelmesi, HES gibi sudan enerji \u00fcreten sistemlerin daha dikkatli ve enerji \u00fcretiminden ziyade verimli su t\u00fcketimini merkeze alan bir anlay\u0131\u015f ile kullan\u0131lmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Bu da HES\u2019lerden daha az elektrik \u00fcretilmesine neden olaca\u011f\u0131ndan, bu alandan do\u011facak a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n ba\u015fka kaynaklardan kar\u015f\u0131lanmas\u0131 gere\u011fi ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Elektrik Arz G\u00fcvenli\u011fi: Artan so\u011futma ihtiyac\u0131 sebebiyle ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan elektrik enerjisi talebi de y\u00fckselecektir. Tabii yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ve arz kapasitesi artan talebi kar\u015f\u0131lamada yetersiz kalmas\u0131 durumunda, yine hidrokarbon kaynaklara y\u00f6nelim tetiklenebilecektir. \u00d6te yandan, arz sa\u011flanabilse dahi, mevcut elektrik da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m sistemleri artan y\u00fck\u00fc kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterli olmayabilecektir. Bu da yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Bu hem enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fini hem de ekonomik g\u00fcvenli\u011fi etkileyecek sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>N\u00fckleer Tesisler: N\u00fckleer santraller ve su ile so\u011futma gerektiren n\u00fckleer madde ve silahlar\u0131n operasyonel maliyetleri, suya eri\u015fimin zorla\u015fmas\u0131 sebebiyle artacakt\u0131r. Bu da askeri anlamda yeni riskler olu\u015fmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Biyolojik G\u00fcvenlik: Artan s\u0131cakl\u0131klar sebebiyle risk ihtiva eden sinek ve b\u00f6cek t\u00fcrlerinin d\u00fcnyan\u0131n farkl\u0131 yerlerine de yay\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir. Bu durum hem insan sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 negatif etkileyecek, hem salg\u0131n ihtimallerini artt\u0131racak, hem de tar\u0131m\u0131 negatif etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Orman G\u00fcvenli\u011fi: Artan s\u0131cakl\u0131klar orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131n\u0131n da daha kolay \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na sebep olacak, yava\u015f yava\u015f tar\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine ek olarak, di\u011fer do\u011fal bitki \u00f6rt\u00fclerinin de yok olmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r. Zaten bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 bir d\u00f6ng\u00fc \u015feklinde k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nman\u0131n negatif y\u00f6nl\u00fc ivmesini de artt\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Biyolojik \u00c7e\u015fitlilik: Ormanlarda ve denizlerdeki s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ilgili habitatlar\u0131 da negatif etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<li>Buzullar\u0131n erimesi neticesinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan \/ \u00e7\u0131kacak olan riskler:\n<ol>\n<li>G\u00f6\u00e7 Riskleri: Artan su hacmi ile y\u00fckselen deniz seviyesi bir\u00e7ok \u015fehrin ve mevcut yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n sular alt\u0131nda kalmas\u0131na sebep olacakt\u0131r. Bu etki b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik ve sosyal riskleri beraberinde getirecek, g\u00f6\u00e7 vb. s\u00fcre\u00e7leri ivmelendirecektir. \u00d6rnek vermek gerekirse, yakla\u015f\u0131k 165 milyon insan\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ayn\u0131 zamanda M\u00fcsl\u00fcman bir \u00fclke olan) Banglade\u015f\u2019in sahip oldu\u011fu n\u00fcfusun neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 deniz seviyesine yak\u0131n kotlarda ikamet etmektedir. Bu sebeple olas\u0131 bir deniz seviyelerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015f, ciddi anlamda g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fcn tetiklenmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. Suriye i\u00e7 sava\u015f\u0131 s\u00fcresince ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen 5 milyondan fazla m\u00fcltecinin d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck krizlere sebep oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, olas\u0131 bir iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi tetiklemesi ile ya\u015fanabilecek g\u00f6\u00e7 dalgalar\u0131n\u0131n etkilerini tasavvur etmek hi\u00e7 de zor olmayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mevsime g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6stermekle birlikte, tahminlerimize g\u00f6re 2100\u2019l\u00fc y\u0131llara gelindi\u011finde, deniz seviyesinde ya\u015fayan n\u00fcfus d\u00fcnya genelinde 1,5 milyar seviyelerini ge\u00e7ecektir. (Not: Bu projeksiyonlarda k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma sebebiyle karasal alanlardaki ya\u015fam kalitesinin daha da fazla d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi varsay\u0131mlara eklenmi\u015ftir.) \u00d6te yandan n\u00fcfus oran\u0131ndan ziyade, sanayi ve \u00fcretim zincirlerinin, b\u00fcy\u00fck lojistik \u00fcslerin b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda deniz seviyelerinde kurulu oldu\u011fu \/ olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa, s\u00fcrecin dolayl\u0131 etkileri \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 seviyelerde olabilecektir. G\u00f6\u00e7 riskleri hususunda hem g\u00f6\u00e7 veren hem de g\u00f6\u00e7 alma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan \u00fclkeler risk alt\u0131ndad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Tatl\u0131 Su Kirlili\u011fi: Tuzlu suyun y\u00fckseli\u015fi, bir\u00e7ok yer \u00fcst\u00fc ve yer alt\u0131 tatl\u0131 su kayna\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da tuzlanmas\u0131na ve bu sebeple, k\u00fcresel tatl\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n daha da h\u0131zl\u0131 azalmas\u0131na sebep olacakt\u0131r. Bu durum belli b\u00f6lgelerin direkt olarak \u201cya\u015fama elveri\u015fli olmayan yer\u201d stat\u00fcs\u00fc kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Afetler: Okyanuslar i\u00e7indeki su tuzluluk dengeleri ve iklimsel etkiler, ak\u0131nt\u0131 y\u00f6nlerini ve bas\u0131n\u00e7 dinamiklerini de\u011fi\u015ftirecek, bu da daha etkili iklimsel farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131mlar ile birlikte, \u00e7ok daha y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 afetlerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7acakt\u0131r. \u00d6rnek vermek gerekirse, ABD k\u0131y\u0131 \u015fehirlerini vuran kas\u0131rgalar\u0131n \u00e7ok daha yo\u011fun, s\u0131k ve \u015fiddetli ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, ABD ekonomisinde \u00e7ok derin yaralar a\u00e7acakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>KBRN G\u00fcvenli\u011fi: Buzullar i\u00e7inde \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f olan olas\u0131 biyolojik tehditlerin d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131larak, yeni salg\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemesi KBRN alan\u0131 d\u00e2hilindeki riskleri artt\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7at\u0131\u015fma Riskleri: Buzullar\u0131n erimesi ile ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan yeni kara par\u00e7alar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki hak iddialar\u0131, yeni \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma ihtimallerini beraberinde getirecektir. \u00d6zellikle ABD ve Rusya aras\u0131nda yeni gerilimler ya\u015fanacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0130lgili risk kalemleri ve beklentilerinden anla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fi \u00fczere, b\u00f6lgesel olarak etki oran\u0131 farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermekle birlikte, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya genel anlamda iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinden negatif olarak etkilenecek ve durum her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lamaz bir hal alacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu negatif devam eden ve CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 ile daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen ilkim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00fcrecini tersine \u00e7evirmek pratikte hi\u00e7 de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc gibi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir. Belki de, pek de ilerleme kaydedilemeyen tersine \u00e7evirme stratejilerine yap\u0131lan finansal desteklerin do\u011fru yerlere yap\u0131lmay\u0131\u015f\u0131 bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6nemli bir etmendir. \u00d6te yandan, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131 negatif etkilere kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem mahiyetinde ortak bir politika geli\u015ftirilmesi ve CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na y\u00f6nelik daha adil ve pratikte uygulanabilir hedefler koyulabilmesi daha faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 ve enerji t\u00fcketimi ile ili\u015fkisi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerde incelenecektir. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile m\u00fccadele politikalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilen \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201d kategorisindeki \u00fclkelerin bu ba\u011flamda gerekli hamleleri yapabilecek teknik ve finansal kapasiteleri de yetersiz oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, yine bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten kaynakl\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 beklenilen en b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 bunlar ya\u015fayacaklard\u0131r. Bu sebepledir ki, ortaya b\u00fct\u00fcn insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 adil bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnen bir modelin koyulabilmesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Aksi takdirde, pragmatist Bat\u0131 akl\u0131 bu s\u00fcreci y\u00f6netmekte ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olacakt\u0131r. (Tabii tamam\u0131yla insanl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm yollar\u0131n\u0131 (pandemi gibi!) hayata ge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmazlarsa!)<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgili riskler d\u00e2hilinde taraf\u0131m\u0131zca haz\u0131rlanan uzun vadeli (2100) projeksiyonlara g\u00f6re en riskli \u00fclkelerden baz\u0131lar\u0131na a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da yer verilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Artan s\u0131cakl\u0131k nedeniyle olu\u015fan risklerden en \u00e7ok etkilenecek \u00fclkeler: Hindistan, Japonya, Almanya, Filipinler, Kanada, Pakistan, Banglade\u015f, Tayland, Myanmar, Vietnam, Nepal, Kenya, Nijerya, Kazakistan ve Rusya olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Deniz suyunun y\u00fckselmesi nedeniyle olu\u015facak risklerden en \u00e7ok etkilenen \u00fclkeler: Banglade\u015f, Irak, M\u0131s\u0131r, \u00c7in, ABD, Rusya, \u0130ngiltere, Almanya, Fransa, \u0130talya, Almanya, \u0130spanya, Tunus, Libya, \u0130ran, Kuveyt, BAE, Singapur, Brezilya, Arjantin, Tayland, Malezya ve Endonezya olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Hazar gibi d\u0131\u015fa ba\u011flant\u0131s\u0131 olmayan deniz ve g\u00f6llerde de suyun \u00e7ekilmesi s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>K\u00dcRESEL ISINMA \u0130LE M\u00dcCADELE KAPSAMINDA ORTAYA KOYULAN \u00d6NER\u0130LER NE DERECE UYGULANAB\u0130L\u0130R?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki b\u00f6l\u00fcmlerde de bahsedildi\u011fi \u00fczere, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ortak bir iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi politikas\u0131 belirleyerek, entegre ad\u0131mlar atmas\u0131 ve her \u00fclkenin bu minvalde \u00fczerine d\u00fc\u015feni yaparak, toplumunu bilin\u00e7lendirmesi, CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131m ve uygulamalar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irmesi gereklidir. Fakat nas\u0131l? Her \u00fclkeden ayn\u0131 oranlarda CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesini beklemek, yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesini istemek, end\u00fcstriyel geli\u015fim s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini sekteye u\u011fratacak taleplerde bulunmak ne kadar mant\u0131kl\u0131 ve makul istekler olacakt\u0131r?<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer taraftan liberal g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcml\u00fc realist d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni, b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ac\u0131mas\u0131z bir yar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7erisinde, yerine g\u00f6re s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcden, soyk\u0131r\u0131ma, ter\u00f6rizmi \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc destekten, di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin i\u00e7 i\u015flerine m\u00fcdahaleye kadar \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 do\u011frultusundaki her t\u00fcrl\u00fc kirli usul\u00fc mubah g\u00f6r\u00fcrken, \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201d olarak nitelendirilen \u00fclkelerden \u201cCO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 hedefleri\u201d gibi \u00fcst s\u0131n\u0131f isteklerde nas\u0131l bulunabilecektir?<\/p>\n<p>Her ne kadar iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda; Kyoto protokol\u00fc, Kopenhag Uzla\u015fma Metni, Paris \u0130klim zirvesi gibi bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 toplant\u0131 ve akabinde imzalanan anla\u015fmalar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da, g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bu ba\u011flamda pek de kayda de\u011fer bir yol kat edilemedi\u011fidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda yine de Paris \u0130klim Zirvesi en etkin toplant\u0131 olarak kayda ge\u00e7mi\u015ftir. Bu zirve neticesinde imzalanan<\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cParis Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n, BM\u0130D\u00c7S ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda en belirgin \u00f6zelli\u011fi, t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin katk\u0131lar\u0131na dayanacak bir sistem \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Anla\u015fma, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fiyle m\u00fccadelede geli\u015fmi\u015f\/geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131na ve t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin \u201cortak fakat farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f sorumluluklar ve g\u00f6receli kabiliyetler\u201d ilkesi taht\u0131nda sorumluluk \u00fcstlenmesi anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131na dayand\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Geli\u015fmi\u015f\/geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in bir k\u0131stas belirlenmemi\u015f; herhangi bir farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya da gidilmemi\u015ftir. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131, 2020 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi tehlikesine kar\u015f\u0131 k\u00fcresel sosyo\/ekonomik dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilmesini hedeflemektedir. Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n uzun d\u00f6nemli hedefi, end\u00fcstriyelle\u015fme \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasen k\u00fcresel s\u0131cakl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 2\u00b0C\u2019nin olabildi\u011fince alt\u0131nda tutulmas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu hedef fosil yak\u0131t (petrol, k\u00f6m\u00fcr) kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n tedricen azalt\u0131larak, yenilenebilir enerjiye y\u00f6nelinmesini gerektirmektedir. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ile m\u00fccadele ba\u011flam\u0131nda Anla\u015fma, ulusal katk\u0131lar, azalt\u0131m, uyum, kay\u0131p\/zarar, finansman, teknoloji geli\u015ftirme ve transferi, kapasite geli\u015ftirme, \u015feffafl\u0131k, durum de\u011ferlendirmesi konular\u0131na ili\u015fkin uygulama usulleri belirlenmek \u00fczere bir \u00e7er\u00e7eve olu\u015fturmu\u015ftur. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Anla\u015fma, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin olumsuz etkilerine maruz kalan \u00fclkelerin uyum ve diren\u00e7 kabiliyetlerinin art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ile sera gaz\u0131 emisyon azalt\u0131m kapasitelerinin y\u00fckseltilmesi amac\u0131yla \u00f6ncelikle geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin, En Az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00dclkeler ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Ada Devletleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, ihtiyac\u0131 olan geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere finansman, teknoloji transferi ve kapasite geli\u015ftirme imkanlar\u0131 sa\u011flamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir. Emisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131 hususunda Anla\u015fma, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin mutlak emisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131 hedeflerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeleri; geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin ise emisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131 hedeflerini y\u00fckselterek farkl\u0131 milli ko\u015fullar\u0131 uyar\u0131nca, zaman i\u00e7inde t\u00fcm ekonomiyi kapsayacak yeni, art\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f hedefler benimsemelerini telkin etmektedir.\u201d <\/em>(T.C. D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131, 2020)<\/p>\n<p>Fakat ne yaz\u0131k ki ilgili hedefler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilememi\u015ftir. Bunun en b\u00fcy\u00fck sebebi; bu hedeflere ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in gerekli olan ortak finansal ortam\u0131n ve bilin\u00e7 d\u00fczeyinin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. Di\u011fer bir ifade ile:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6ncelikle sera etkisine sebep olan CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n as\u0131l m\u00fcsebbipleri zaten ilgili, kendini \u201cgeli\u015fmi\u015f\u201d kategorisinde niteleyen devletlerdir.<\/li>\n<li>Bu devletler sanayile\u015fme s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131na dikkat etmemi\u015f, \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201d olarak nitelendirdikleri toplum ve \u00fclkelerin b\u00fct\u00fcn kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok ac\u0131mas\u0131z bir \u015fekilde s\u00f6m\u00fcrme yar\u0131\u015f\u0131na tutulmu\u015flard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>S\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc ile elde ettikleri finans ve di\u011fer kaynaklar\u0131 (hammadde ve k\u00f6le) kullanarak; sanayile\u015fmi\u015f, geli\u015fmi\u015f, ya\u015fam kalitelerini y\u00fckseltmi\u015f, (halen adapte olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan, pek de adil olmayan) bu d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenini modelleyerek hayata ge\u00e7irmi\u015flerdir.<\/li>\n<li>1973 OPEC krizi ile birlikte alternatif enerjileri dikkate almaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Buradan ba\u015flayarak alternatif enerjiler ile ilgili yeni teknolojiler geli\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bilimsel teoriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin art\u0131k kendileri i\u00e7in g\u00fcvenlik riskleri ortaya koymaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnce, bu alana y\u00f6nelmi\u015flerdir.<\/li>\n<li>Zamanla daha da \u015fekillenen ve bir politika haline gelen bu model d\u00e2hilinde, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyadan CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesini talep etmi\u015flerdir.<\/li>\n<li>Fakat ilgili \u201cgeli\u015fmemi\u015f\u201d olarak tabir edilen \u00fclkelerin ve fakir toplumlar\u0131n finansal, lojistik ve teknolojik olarak kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olduklar\u0131 enerji a\u00e7l\u0131k seviyesinin, yenilenebilir haplarla bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 hi\u00e7 de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6te yandan d\u00fcnyadaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji t\u00fcketicileri olan:\n<ul>\n<li>ABD i\u00e7in iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi politikalar\u0131 (her ne kadar temiz enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 desteklense de) \u00c7in ile m\u00fccadelesi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ayaklar\u0131ndaki pranga niteli\u011findedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc mevcut durumda \u00e7ok daha iyi ekonomik ko\u015fullarla \u00fcretilebilecek, zengin hidrokarbon rezervlerinin de\u011ferlendirilmesi, ABD\u2019yi hem i\u00e7te hem de d\u0131\u015fta daha etkin bir pozisyona ta\u015f\u0131yacakt\u0131r. Tabii bu makul politikan\u0131n Biden ile de\u011fi\u015fmesi de s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>AB her ne kadar yenilenebilir alan\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck at\u0131l\u0131mlar yapsa da, pandemi sebebiyle olu\u015fan ekonomik dura\u011fanl\u0131k, bu ba\u011flamda ayr\u0131lan b\u00fct\u00e7eleri ve finansman imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131 negatif etkilemi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>Yak\u0131n zamanda en b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji t\u00fcketicisi konumunu alacak olan \u00c7in, yeterli hidrokarbon kaynaklara sahip olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131, uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyuna pozitif g\u00f6r\u00fcnme arzusu, hava kirlili\u011finin insan sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek boyutlara ula\u015fmas\u0131 gibi sebeplerle yenilenebilir kaynaklara \u00f6nem vermekte fakat di\u011fer kaynaklara y\u00f6nelimden de vazge\u00e7ememektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc artan enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bast\u0131rmak i\u00e7in tek yolu budur.<\/li>\n<li>Hindistan ise b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck olarak b\u00fct\u00fcn enerji projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Bu perspektiften bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafiklerden de g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere) d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki en \u00f6nemli fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn fakir toplumlar oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011finden yola \u00e7\u0131karak, sosyolojik olarak parabolik bir talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklenen bu senaryo ile m\u00fccadele etmenin \u00e7ok zor oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fi fark edilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi politikalar\u0131 kurgularken, geli\u015fmi\u015flik, gelir d\u00fczeyi, e\u011fitim seviyesi gibi bir\u00e7ok farkl\u0131 etmenin de dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ve adil politikalar geli\u015ftirilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda, birka\u00e7 pilot projeyle de\u011fil, ger\u00e7ek anlamda destekler ile uluslararas\u0131 sermayenin ilgili fakir \u00fclkeleri desteklemesi gerekmektedir. Aksi takdirde, k\u00fcm\u00fclatifte hi\u00e7bir manas\u0131 kalmayan birka\u00e7 \u00fcretim tesisi ile hedeflere ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12530 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/1-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"614\" height=\"214\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Grafik 1:<\/strong> D\u00fcnya N\u00fcfus Projeksiyonlar\u0131 ve Gelir Gruplar\u0131 (K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100, TESPAM, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki grafikten de anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Orta gelir grubu, d\u00fc\u015fen bir art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir grubunun art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 di\u011ferlerine g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksektir.<\/li>\n<li>Y\u00fcksek gelir grubunun n\u00fcfusu 2040&#8217;lardan sonra azalmaya ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2050&#8217;ler boyunca k\u00fcresel enerji trendlerinin fakl\u0131 gelir gruplar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 oranlarda etkilenece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir grubunun tercihlerinden % 20,<\/li>\n<li>Orta gelir grubunun tercihlerinden % 65,<\/li>\n<li>Y\u00fcksek gelir grubunun tercihlerinden % 15 oran\u0131nda bir etki d\u00fczeyi s\u00f6z konusudur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2100&#8217;lerde gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n enerji t\u00fcketimleri \u00fczerindeki etkisinin bir miktar de\u011fi\u015fmesi beklenmektedir. Bu durumda olu\u015facak yeni tablo \u015fu \u015fekildedir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir grubunun tercihlerinden % 23,<\/li>\n<li>Orta gelir grubunun tercihlerinden % 64,<\/li>\n<li>Y\u00fcksek gelir grubunun tercihlerinden % 12 oran\u0131nda bir etkilenme olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir grubunun etkisi k\u00fcresel dinamiklerde b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artacakt\u0131r. Bu nedenle, en y\u00fcksek n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131na aittir.<\/p>\n<p>Tabii bunlara ek olarak senaryolar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek olan di\u011fer etmenlerden bir tanesi de yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerinin h\u0131zla d\u00fc\u015fen birim maliyetleridir. Fakat \u00f6te yandan, ilgili d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi s\u00fcrekli son 10 y\u0131lda g\u00f6zlemlenen de\u011ferleri de izleyemeyebilecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc zaten ciddi anlamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130KL\u0130M DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130KL\u0130\u011e\u0130 &amp; ENERJ\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da da ifade edildi\u011fi \u00fczere, sosyal yap\u0131 enerji t\u00fcketimi, enerji tercihleri ve gelecek projeksiyonlar \u00fczerinde \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck etkiye sahiptir. Bu sebeple gelir seviyesine g\u00f6re k\u00fcresel n\u00fcfus projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n incelenerek, gelir ile ili\u015fkili sosyal etmenlerin analiz edilmesi yerinde olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc n\u00fcfus, enerji t\u00fcketimindeki en \u00f6nemli etmenlerden biridir.<\/p>\n<p>Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc ilk grafikte derlenmi\u015ftir. \u0130lgili grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 2040&#8217;larda d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgili trendler gelir seviyeleri perspektifinden incelendi\u011finde, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131na as\u0131l sebep olan s\u0131n\u0131f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirlilerdir. \u0130\u015fte bu noktada, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir d\u00fczeyine sahip toplumlar\u0131n\u0131n genel sosyolojik \u00f6zelliklerinin incelenmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc y\u00fcksek gelir grubu daha fazla yenilenebilir, daha az CO2, daha fazla verimlilik ve mevcut y\u00fcksek t\u00fcketim oranlar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelirken, genel anlamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131 i\u00e7in ise bu durum tam tersine d\u00f6nmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablo bu ba\u011flamda farkl\u0131 gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n enerji alan\u0131ndaki tercih ve e\u011filimlerini \u00f6zetlemektedir.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12531 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/2-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"609\" height=\"108\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Tablo 1:<\/strong> Farkl\u0131 Gelir Gruplar\u0131n\u0131n Enerji E\u011filimleri (K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100, TESPAM, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Tablodan da anla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fi \u00fczere, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n enerji tercihlerine ili\u015fkin sosyal beklentileri y\u00fcksek gelir gruplar\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131d\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, D\u00fcnya gelecekteki dinamiklerde daha temiz ve daha az CO2 odakl\u0131 bir yol izlemeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu duruma m\u00fcdahale etmek i\u00e7in, y\u00fcksek gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n orta ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131na baz\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f ve fonlar vermesi gerekmektedir. Aksi takdirde, karbon azalt\u0131c\u0131 politikalar ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamayacakt\u0131r. Tabii ortada bu minvalde bir b\u00fct\u00e7e bulunmamaktad\u0131r. G\u00f6stermelik yat\u0131r\u0131m ve krediler ise bu ba\u011flamda yeterli de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu nedenle, n\u00fcfus ve gelir modelli sosyal bak\u0131\u015fl\u0131 tahminler \u015funlar\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Orta ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Dekarbonizasyon politikalar\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterli fonun bulunmayacakt\u0131r. Farkl\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131mlara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Verimlilik ve yenilenebilir konular\u0131, birim maliyetlere ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck &#8211; orta gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n ucuz teknolojiye eri\u015fim imk\u00e2nlar\u0131na g\u00f6re do\u011frudan etkilenecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Ayr\u0131ca salg\u0131n tehditleri ve KBRN sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, k\u00fcresel n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00fczerinde artan bir etkiye sahip olacakt\u0131r. Bunlara ek olarak, bu t\u00fcr tehditler ve riskler k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi, ticareti ve enerji dinamiklerini de direkt olarak etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan enerji t\u00fcketim tercihlerini etkileyen daha bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6r bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bunlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gelir seviyeleri,<\/li>\n<li>Ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>L\u00fckse a\u00e7l\u0131k,<\/li>\n<li>Finansman ve finansman f\u0131rsatlar\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>E\u011fitim seviyesi,<\/li>\n<li>Sosyal al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar,<\/li>\n<li>Ucuz, kullan\u0131m\u0131 pratik ve eri\u015fimi kolay enerji t\u00fcr\u00fc,<\/li>\n<li>Vergi politikalar\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Hibeler ve te\u015fvikler,<\/li>\n<li>Yasal \u00e7er\u00e7eve ve yasal konular,<\/li>\n<li>Elit sosyal kesimlerin \u00f6rnek tutumlar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-12532 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/3-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"204\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Tablo 2<\/em><em>: <\/em><\/strong><em>Baz\u0131 Konulara G\u00f6re Enerji E\u011filimleri (K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100, TESPAM, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki tablo k\u0131saca ilgili fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn y\u00f6nelimli e\u011filiminin enerji tercihlerindeki baz\u0131 \u00f6nemli konular\u0131 nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fine dair ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 vermektedir. Tablodan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 gibi, orta ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131 i\u00e7in;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Verimlilik, dekarbonizasyon, elektrikli arabalar ve di\u011fer \u00e7evresel konular \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Ya\u015fam ko\u015fullar\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fc olmakla birlikte, \u00e7evre sorunlar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda yeterli bilin\u00e7 d\u00fczeyi olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirlilerin ula\u015fabilece\u011fi l\u00fcks t\u00fcketime olan talep, ucuz ama verimsiz ve daha fazla enerji t\u00fcketen ara\u00e7lar\u0131n kullan\u0131lmas\u0131na neden olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Finansman temin etme imk\u00e2nlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131 yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131 gibi yerel odakl\u0131 s\u0131ra d\u0131\u015f\u0131 teknolojilere yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmay\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmamaktad\u0131r. Bu durum dekarbonizasyon politikalar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkilemektedir.<\/li>\n<li>E\u011fitim d\u00fczeyleri ayn\u0131 zamanda geli\u015fmi\u015flik standartlar\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frudan etkileyen gelirle de ilgilidir. Genellikle e\u011fitim seviyeleri y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e daha temiz enerjiye y\u00f6nlenme e\u011filimi de artacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Sosyal ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k ve muhafazak\u00e2r yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n genellikle yeni fikirler ve yeni enerji t\u00fcrleri \u00fczerinde olumsuz etkileri vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>CO2 politikalar\u0131 dengelerini do\u011frudan de\u011fi\u015ftiren geleneksel ve ucuz (k\u00f6m\u00fcr gibi) kaynaklar\u0131n tercih edilmesi de bu ba\u011flamda makul olarak kabul edilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Bir \u00fclkenin farkl\u0131 enerji t\u00fcrlerine ili\u015fkin vergi rejimleri de tercihler i\u00e7in farkl\u0131 bir nokta olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Do\u011fal olarak vergiler daha y\u00fcksek iken, tercih katsay\u0131s\u0131 azalacakt\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, orta veya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in, genellikle yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 te\u015fvik etmek i\u00e7in yeterli vergi indirimi politikas\u0131 yoktur, bu da verimsiz karbonsuzla\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Buna ek olarak, baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde, daha ucuz olmas\u0131 ve bir \u015fekilde bol miktarda k\u00f6m\u00fcr kayna\u011f\u0131na sahip olunmas\u0131 nedeniyle, k\u00f6m\u00fcr i\u00e7in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck vergi politikalar\u0131 uygulanmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Vergi oranlar\u0131 gibi, hibeler ve te\u015fvikler de temiz enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesinde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayacakt\u0131r. Devlet yard\u0131m\u0131 verilen ve te\u015fvik edilen enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 genellikle tercih edilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Bir \u00fclkenin yasal \u00e7er\u00e7evesi ve yasal mevzuat konular\u0131n\u0131n da a\u00e7\u0131k ve istikrarl\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekir. Aksi takdirde, yasama sistemindeki bo\u015fluklar ve belirsizlikler yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 i\u00e7in risk olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r, bu da enerji politikalar\u0131nda daha fazla sorun olmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Hepsine ek olarak, elit sosyal kesimlerin \u00f6rnek tutumlar\u0131 da tercihler i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir kald\u0131ra\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r. Genellikle toplumlar elitlerin tercihlerine g\u00f6re etkilenir ve y\u00f6nlendirilir. Orta veya alt s\u0131n\u0131flar genellikle elitlerin sahip oldu\u011fu imk\u00e2nlara ula\u015fmay\u0131 hedefler. Ancak ayn\u0131 zamanda, bu hedefleri do\u011frultusunda genellikle yeterli b\u00fct\u00e7e bulamazlar. Bu durum onlar\u0131 l\u00fcks fakat daha az verimli se\u00e7eneklere y\u00f6nlendirmektedir. Bu y\u00fczden bu konu bir toplumun tercihlerini y\u00f6nlendirmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131yla, \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131 kriterin de dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 ile TESPAM b\u00fcnyesinde haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f olan k\u00fcresel enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc projeksiyonlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikler \u00fczerinden incelendi\u011finde,<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12533 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/4-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"609\" height=\"267\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Grafik 2:<\/strong> D\u00fcnya Birincil Enerji T\u00fcketimi 2100 (K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100, TESPAM, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Toplam k\u00fcresel birincil enerji t\u00fcketimi 80 y\u0131ll\u0131k d\u00f6nemde neredeyse iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r (yakla\u015f\u0131k % 91).<\/li>\n<li>En y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131nda, n\u00fckleer ve do\u011fal gazda g\u00f6zlenecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Petrol t\u00fcketimi 2070&#8217;lerden sonra d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacak ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketimi daha y\u00fcksek d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oranlar\u0131n\u0131 izleyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Gaz ve yenilenebilir enerji 2100 y\u0131l\u0131nda en \u00f6nemli enerji kaynaklar\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12534 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/5-2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"253\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Grafik 3:<\/strong> D\u00fcnya Kaynaklar\u0131na G\u00f6re Elektrik T\u00fcketimi 2100 (K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100, TESPAM, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Elektrik t\u00fcketimi % 175 civar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek bir art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131na sahip olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131n genel elektrik denklemindeki pay\u0131 artacak ve elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli enerji t\u00fcr\u00fc olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn pay\u0131 azal\u0131rken petrol santrallerinin pay\u0131 ise bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma yapmak i\u00e7in bile ihmal edilebilir seviyede olacakt\u0131r. (2080&#8217;lerden sonra neredeyse s\u0131f\u0131r olacakt\u0131r.).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12535 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/6-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"244\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Grafik 4:<\/strong> D\u00fcnya \u00dclkelere G\u00f6re Birincil Enerji T\u00fcketimi 2100 (K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100, TESPAM, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>K\u00fcresel enerji dengeleri \u00fczerinde en b\u00fcy\u00fck paya sahip olan \u00fclkeler \u00c7in ve Hindistan olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bu durumda bu iki \u00fclkenin e\u011filimleri ve tercihleri gelece\u011fin enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 belirleyecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu perspektiften 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan baz\u0131 ortalama s\u0131cakl\u0131k ve deniz suyu seviyesi y\u00fckselimleri incelendi\u011finde;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12536 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/7-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"649\" height=\"220\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Grafik<\/em> <em>5<\/em><em>: <\/em><\/strong><em>K\u00fcresel Ortalama Y\u00fczey S\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 De\u011fi\u015fimi <\/em><em>(<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au\/en\/climate-campus\/global-climate-change\/global-projections\/\"><em>https:\/\/www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au\/en\/climate-campus\/global-climate-change\/global-projections<\/em><\/a><em>, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12537 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/8-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"646\" height=\"195\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><em>Grafik<\/em> <em>6<\/em><em>: <\/em><\/strong><em>K\u00fcresel Deniz Seviyesi Y\u00fckselimleri <\/em><em>(<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au\/en\/climate-campus\/global-climate-change\/global-projections\/\"><em>https:\/\/www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au\/en\/climate-campus\/global-climate-change\/global-projections<\/em><\/a><em>, 2019)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Grafiklerden g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere, b\u00f6lgesel olarak farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermekle birlikte 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar k\u00fcresel anlamda ortalama +2<sup>0<\/sup>C\u2019lik bir s\u0131cakl\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimi ve 60 cm\u2019lik bir su seviyesi y\u00fckseli\u015fi g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, geli\u015fmekte olan baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerde TESPAM taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fczenlenen anketler g\u00f6stermektedir ki, gelece\u011fin enerji trendlerini belirleyecek olan sosyal profil a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki hususlara inanmaktad\u0131r. Bunlar:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Emisyon miktarlar\u0131n\u0131 neden \u00f6nemsemeliyim ki? ABD Paris protokol\u00fcn\u00fc imzalamad\u0131!<\/li>\n<li>Bu konuda \u00fczerinde anla\u015fmaya var\u0131lm\u0131\u015f bir yakla\u015f\u0131m yok, bu y\u00fczden ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z hedeflere para harcamak istemiyorum.<\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma bir ger\u00e7ektir, ancak D\u00fcnyan\u0131n sonunu de\u011fi\u015ftiremeyiz.<\/li>\n<li>K\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nma sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ile ilgili tahminler do\u011fru de\u011fil.<\/li>\n<li>CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nemli de\u011fil, \u00f6ncelik temel ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilmek!<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u015eeklinde yorumlard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu konulara ek olarak, k\u00fcresel \u0131s\u0131nmaya ili\u015fkin mevcut projeksiyonlarda da (baz\u0131 ele\u015ftirileri hakl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karacak olan) \u00e7ok say\u0131da bilinmeyen bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bu bilinmeyenler, bu ba\u011flamda k\u00fcresel bir ortak bilincin ve kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n olu\u015fmas\u0131na engel olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130SLAM D\u00dcNYASI ve \u0130KL\u0130M DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130KL\u0130\u011e\u0130N\u0130N GET\u0130RD\u0130\u011e\u0130 G\u00dcVENL\u0130K SORUNLARI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00fcreci ve bu minvalde at\u0131labilecek ad\u0131mlar \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan devlet ve toplumlar i\u00e7in de kritik \u00f6neme sahiptir. Di\u011fer taraftan, artan n\u00fcfusu ve sosyolojik \u00f6zellikleri perspektifinden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi kapsam\u0131nda bilin\u00e7li ortak politikalar izlemesi, k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azaltma ve olas\u0131 zararlara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlem alma anlam\u0131nda da \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 ayn\u0131 zamanda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin medeniyet co\u011frafyas\u0131 olarak da nitelendirilebilecektir. Bu minvalde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki harita incelendi\u011finde (Not: A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki haritada \u0130ran hari\u00e7 tutulmu\u015ftur, fakat \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 d\u00e2hilinde incelenmelidir.) Kuzey ve Orta Afrika\u2019dan, Orta Do\u011fu\u2019ya, T\u00fcrkistan\u2019dan Pasifik\u2019e kadar uzanan geni\u015f bir co\u011frafya kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12538 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/9-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"459\" height=\"245\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Harita 1:<\/strong> T\u00fcrkiye Medeniyet Co\u011frafyas\u0131 (T\u00fcrk \u0130slam D\u00fcnyas\u0131nda Enerji Birli\u011fi, Akyener, s.141, 2018)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgili co\u011frafya ile ilgili iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi politikalar\u0131 perspektifinden baz\u0131 genellemeler yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 sahip oldu\u011fu kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f, bol miktardaki hidrokarbon kaynaklar\u0131 ile dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Mevcut kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f rezervlerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, hidrokarbon kaynaklar ve stratejik madenler anlam\u0131nda da \u00e7ok ciddi yeni ke\u015fif potansiyelleri bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Ortalama e\u011fitim seviyesi ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen gelir d\u00fczeyi, kendilerini \u201cgeli\u015fmi\u015f\u201d olarak niteleyen \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla geridedir.<\/li>\n<li>Ciddi anlamda yenilenebilir kaynak potansiyeli de bulunmaktad\u0131r fakat genel anlamda hidrokarbon kaynaklar teknik-finansal-lojistik-stratejik-ekonomik olarak daha fazla tercih edilebilirdir.<\/li>\n<li>Mevcut durumda dahi genel anlamda tatl\u0131 su kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n yetersizli\u011fi ve bu minvaldeki huzursuzluk a\u015fik\u00e2rd\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Sahip olunan gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus ile b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve geli\u015fme potansiyeli y\u00fcksektir bu da k\u00fcm\u00fclatif enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tetiklemektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bir sonraki haritada, ilgili \u00fclkelerdeki M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfus g\u00f6sterilmektedir. \u0130lgili dairenin yar\u0131\u00e7ap\u0131 n\u00fcfus b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ile do\u011fru orant\u0131l\u0131d\u0131r. Koyu ye\u015fil daire ise \u015eii n\u00fcfusu belirtmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12539 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/10.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"419\" height=\"298\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Harita 2:<\/strong> \u00dclkelere G\u00f6re M\u00fcsl\u00fcman N\u00fcfus B\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri (<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/libraryeuroparl.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/09\/islam_map1.png\"><em>https:\/\/libraryeuroparl.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/09\/islam_map1.png<\/em><\/a><em>, 2018)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Haritadan anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, en fazla M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusa sahip \u00fclkeler; Endonezya, Pakistan, Hindistan, Banglade\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye, M\u0131s\u0131r, Nijerya, \u0130ran\u2019d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u015eii M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar ise \u0130ran, Irak, Azerbaycan, Yemen, Pakistan ve Hindistan gibi \u00fclkelerde dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12540 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/11.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"421\" height=\"219\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Grafik 7:<\/strong> 2100 Y\u0131l\u0131na Kadar D\u00fcnya H\u0131ristiyan &amp; M\u00fcsl\u00fcman N\u00fcfus De\u011fi\u015fimleri (<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pewforum.org\/2015\/04\/02\/religious-projections-2010-2050\/\"><em>http:\/\/www.pewforum.org\/2015\/04\/02\/religious-projections-2010-2050<\/em><\/a><em>, 2018)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>7 numaral\u0131 grafikte ise, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde %31,4 ile k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte en fazla n\u00fcfusa sahip olan Hristiyanlar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 2070\u2019lerde M\u00fcsl\u00fcmanlar\u0131n ge\u00e7ece\u011fi beklentileri ifade edilmi\u015ftir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile gelece\u011fin enerji dinamiklerinde de M\u00fcsl\u00fcman toplumlar\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>8 numaral\u0131 grafikte ise, M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusun sahip oldu\u011fu gen\u00e7 yap\u0131, dinamizm ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme potansiyeli g\u00f6sterilmektedir. Di\u011fer t\u00fcm dinlere k\u0131yasla M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusun k\u00fcresel etki potansiyeli her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn h\u0131zla artmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12541 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"553\" height=\"202\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Grafik 8:<\/strong> 2010 D\u00fcnya Dinler Ya\u015f Da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 (<\/em><a href=\"http:\/\/www.pewforum.org\/2015\/04\/02\/religious-projections-2010-2050\/\"><em>http:\/\/www.pewforum.org\/2015\/04\/02\/religious-projections-2010-2050<\/em><\/a><em>, 2018<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgili n\u00fcfus trendleri ile de ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda GSY\u0130H miktarlar\u0131 nezdinde bir ekonomik hacim k\u0131yaslamas\u0131 projeksiyonu yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilk 10\u2019da ciddi anlamda M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusa sahip olan devletlerin mevcudiyeti dikkat \u00e7ekicidir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12542 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/13.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"490\" height=\"271\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Harita 3:<\/strong> 2050 Y\u0131l\u0131nda Gayri Safi Milli H\u00e2s\u0131la Oranlar\u0131na G\u00f6re S\u0131ralama (T\u00fcrk \u0130slam D\u00fcnyas\u0131nda Enerji Birli\u011fi, Akyener, s.125, 2018)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00c7in, Hindistan ve Rusya gibi ciddi anlamda M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusa sahip devletler,<\/li>\n<li>Endonezya ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi direk olarak M\u00fcsl\u00fcman topluma sahip \u00fclkeler gelece\u011fin d\u00fcnya d\u00fczenindeki en \u00f6nemli belirleyici g\u00fc\u00e7ler aras\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani ekonomik anlamda da \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda bir toparlanma ve ilerleme beklenmektedir. Bu da mevcut daha fazla b\u00fcy\u00fcme, daha fazla enerji talebi ve s\u0131n\u0131f de\u011fi\u015ftiren gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfus potansiyelinin do\u011furdu\u011fu, talebi katlayan bir enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan yukar\u0131da bahsedilen sosyoekonomik dinamikler g\u00f6stermektedir ki, enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bast\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda ilk ve \u00f6ncelikli olarak de\u011ferlendirilecek kaynaklar CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselten hidrokarbon kaynaklar olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu trendin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekte M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusunun ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in de iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ciddi anlamda risk te\u015fkil etmekte ve g\u00fcvenlik sorunu olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecek olan bir puanland\u0131rma yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fck oranlarda M\u00fcsl\u00fcman n\u00fcfusa sahip olan \u00fclkeler k\u0131yaslanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12543 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/14.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"541\" height=\"595\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Grafik 9:<\/strong> B\u00fcy\u00fck Oranlarda M\u00fcsl\u00fcman N\u00fcfusa Sahip \u00dclkeler \u0130\u00e7in \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Risk Puanland\u0131rmas\u0131<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgili puanland\u0131rma yap\u0131l\u0131rken, \u201cK\u00dcRESEL ISINMA \u0130LE YEN\u0130DEN \u015eEK\u0130LLENEN G\u00dcVENL\u0130K R\u0130SKLER\u0130\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda incelenen kriterlerin hepsi (a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tablodan da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere), ilgili t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in tek tek \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, risk fakt\u00f6rleri 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck projeksiyonlar e\u015fli\u011finde puanland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-12544 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/15.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"519\" height=\"152\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em><strong>Tablo 3:<\/strong> \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi Risk Kriterleri<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Bu ba\u011flamda:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130lgili risk beklentileri ve oranlar\u0131 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fck projeksiyonlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde hesaplanm\u0131\u015f ve k\u0131yaslanarak puanland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin ilkim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131 s\u0131cakl\u0131k farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131, deniz seviyesi y\u00fckselimi veya \u00e7ekilimi, n\u00fckleer tesis say\u0131lar\u0131 vb. bir\u00e7ok kriter bu ba\u011flamda kurgulanan varsay\u0131mlara g\u00f6re tahmin edilmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>Her farkl\u0131 kalem kendi i\u00e7indeki risk fakt\u00f6rleri dikkate al\u0131narak puanland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130lgili kalemlere ait belirlenen risk puanlar\u0131 toplanarak, 100 (tam risk puan\u0131) \u00fczerinden aritmetik ortalamas\u0131 al\u0131nacak \u015fekilde grafik 9\u2019da belirtilen nihai risk puanlar\u0131 hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Farkl\u0131 kriterlere g\u00f6re farkl\u0131 risk a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kland\u0131rma s\u00fcre\u00e7leri de yap\u0131labilecektir. Fakat bu g\u00f6receli olaca\u011f\u0131ndan, her kriterin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cgenel risk haritas\u0131nda\u201d e\u015fit olarak kabul edilmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, 9 numaral\u0131 grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere, \u0130slam D\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 ulusal g\u00fcvenlik risk puanlar\u0131 nezdinde:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>En riskli \u00fclkeler: Hindistan, Banglade\u015f, M\u0131s\u0131r, Irak, Nijerya ve Endonezya\u2019d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye, T\u00fcrkmenistan ve Kazakistan ise en az risk ihtiva eden \u00fclkelerdir.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130lgili t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin risk puan\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 29\u2019dur. Bu da iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdiden dikkate almas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funun bir kan\u0131t\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00fcreci d\u00e2hilinde \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n ortak bir politika geli\u015ftirerek, makul CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 politikalar\u0131 ve s\u00fcrecin riskleri ile m\u00fccadele anlam\u0131nda stratejiler kurgulamas\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir. Bu alana ciddi anlamda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapan ve s\u00fcrekli g\u00fcncelledikleri CO2 politikalar\u0131 ile yeni projeksiyonlar ortaya koyan Bat\u0131 akl\u0131n\u0131n, b\u00f6ylesi bir birliktelik ve fark\u0131ndal\u0131k hususunda, bu s\u00fcrece \u00f6nderlik edebilecek T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkelere destek olmas\u0131, dolayl\u0131 olarak kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 ile \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015fmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir\u00e7ok AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkenin ve ABD\u2019nin risk puanlar\u0131 da bir hayli y\u00fcksektir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u0130SLAM D\u00dcNYASI MERKEZL\u0130 K\u00dcRESEL B\u0130R \u0130KL\u0130M DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130KL\u0130\u011e\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KASI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da da ifade edildi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n bir an \u00f6nce \u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fini idrak ederek, bu kapsamda ortak politikalar geli\u015ftirmesi gerekmektedir. Makro d\u00fczeyden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mevcut ko\u015fullarda \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda ne yaz\u0131k ki, \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyen bir\u00e7ok problemin mevcudiyeti sebebiyle bu minvaldeki uzun vadeli risk okumalar\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilebilmektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, makul kar\u015f\u0131lanabilece\u011fi \u00fczere,<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 bu denli par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f ve kendi i\u00e7inde b\u00f6l\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f durumdayken,<\/li>\n<li>Etnik ve mezhepsel \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalarla kendi i\u00e7lerindeki istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flayamayan bir\u00e7ok devlet bulunmakta iken,<\/li>\n<li>CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131 kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131n, bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede n\u00fcfusun \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc elektri\u011fe dahi eri\u015femiyorken,<\/li>\n<li>A\u00e7l\u0131k, salg\u0131n hastal\u0131klar, ekonomik buhran, kaos, ter\u00f6r, e\u011fitim eksikli\u011fi gibi say\u0131s\u0131z tehdit ile etkin bir m\u00fccadele s\u00fcreci y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclemiyorken iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00fczerine \u0131srarc\u0131 olmak hi\u00e7 de ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca ekonomileri petrol ve gaz ihracat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u0130slam \u00fclkesi bulunmaktad\u0131r ki, bunlardan CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azaltmalar\u0131n\u0131 beklemek de makul bir talep olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015fte tam da bu noktada, ilgili Bat\u0131 medeniyetinin de (\u00fctopik g\u00f6z\u00fckse de) makul ve kabul edilebilir destekleri (en az\u0131ndan k\u00f6stek olmamalar\u0131) ile baz\u0131 uygulanabilir s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin ba\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kapsamda, \u0130slam \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi Te\u015fkilat\u0131 gibi uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6rg\u00fctler d\u00e2hilinde bu s\u00fcre\u00e7lere y\u00f6nelik baz\u0131 ad\u0131mlar at\u0131labilecektir. \u00d6rne\u011fin:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Fark\u0131ndal\u0131k olu\u015fturucu projeler, bildiriler, videolar, e\u011fitimler, projeksiyonlar ortaya koyma,<\/li>\n<li>Yenilenebilir enerji ve su ar\u0131tma \u2013 t\u00fcketim teknolojileri alan\u0131nda ortak ARGE \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yapma,<\/li>\n<li>\u0130lkim Politikalar\u0131 Destek Fonu (\u0130DB b\u00fcnyesinde olabilir) olu\u015fturma,<\/li>\n<li>Bu ba\u011flamda ortak mevzuat sistemleri geli\u015ftirme,<\/li>\n<li>Ortak bir \u201c\u0130klim De\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve Su Y\u00f6netim Merkezi\u201d kurma,<\/li>\n<li>Hidrokarbon \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerin yenilenebilir yat\u0131r\u0131mlara planl\u0131 fonlar ay\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flama,<\/li>\n<li>Bu politikalar d\u00e2hilinde BM ve AB\u2019nin tecr\u00fcbe ve desteklerinden faydalanma gibi stratejiler (\u00e7ok zor da olsa!) uygulamaya ge\u00e7irilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r ki, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in oldu\u011fu gibi, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in de \u00f6ncelikli stat\u00fcde olamamakla birlikte, uzun vadeli etkileri olan risklerle m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in yine uzun vadeli politikalara ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan bir g\u00fcvenlik riskidir. Ve bu riskle etkin bir m\u00fccadele ancak ortak ak\u0131lla al\u0131nabilecek entegre stratejiler ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>SONU\u00c7<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, her ne kadar etkisi geni\u015f \u00f6l\u00e7ekli fark\u0131ndal\u0131k olu\u015fturacak d\u00fczeyde hissedilemese de, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n dikkate almas\u0131 gereken \u00f6nemli bir konudur. Ancak, k\u00fcresel toplumun geneli bu konuda bilin\u00e7li ve ortaya koyulan politikalar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde istekli de\u011fildir. Bu nedenle, maliyetler d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor ve yenilenebilir trendler art\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck karbon senaryolar\u0131 pek de ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Buna ek olarak, neredeyse t\u00fcm insanlar k\u00fcresel ortalama y\u00fczey s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve ortalama deniz seviyelerinin y\u00fckselmesi konusunda hemfikirdirler, ancak fayda ve maliyet analizi yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda mevcut dekarbonizasyon hedeflerine ula\u015fmak hi\u00e7 de kolay g\u00f6r\u00fcnmemektedir. Ayr\u0131ca D\u00fcnya&#8217;n\u0131n mevcut emisyonda ani bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe tepki g\u00f6stermesi de onlarca y\u0131l alacakt\u0131r. Bu, sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ek anlamda emin olunamayan bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7\u0131rp\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z anlam\u0131n\u0131 da peki\u015ftirmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Dekarbonizasyon politikalar\u0131n\u0131n maliyetleri her \u00fclke i\u00e7in farkl\u0131d\u0131r ve genellikle herkesin ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken daha acil sorunlar vard\u0131r. Bu ger\u00e7eklik de daha realist tahminler yapabilmek i\u00e7in g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel n\u00fcfus projeksiyonlar\u0131 ve n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 tetikleyen toplumlar\u0131n sosyolojik \u00f6zellikleri de, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n tutarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda ciddi \u015f\u00fcphe olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyam\u0131zda ne yaz\u0131k ki, CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ek anlamda azaltma ve iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi trendini tersine \u00e7evirebilecek reel anlamda altyap\u0131, finans, adalet, fark\u0131ndal\u0131k ve entegrasyon bulunmamaktad\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan fakir toplumlar\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi ve bunun akabinde olu\u015facak s\u0131n\u0131fsal de\u011fi\u015fimlerle ilintili enerji a\u00e7l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da s\u00fcre\u00e7lerin i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmaz bir hale b\u00fcr\u00fcnmesine sebep olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>D\u00fcnyan\u0131n i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fu bu \u00e7\u0131kmaz, bir laboratuvar projesi gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecek olan Covid19 salg\u0131n\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi, KBRN alan\u0131ndaki k\u00fcresel tehditlerin bu ba\u011flamda d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunu azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik kirli projeler oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesini dahi uyand\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ilgili n\u00fcfus k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131 ve dura\u011fanla\u015fan hayat ile birlikte azalan CO2 sal\u0131n\u0131mlar\u0131 bu ba\u011flamda senaryolar\u0131 etkileyen \u00f6nemli neticeler do\u011furmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte bu tutars\u0131zl\u0131klar devam ederken, kendi i\u00e7inde bir\u00e7ok sorunu olan ve bu sorunlarla m\u00fccadele etmekte ve entegre \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm stratejileri geli\u015ftirmekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olamayan \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in de iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u00f6nemli g\u00fcvenlik riskleri ihtiva eden bir konudur.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki trendler gelece\u011fin enerji politikalar\u0131 ile birlikte iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini de \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkileyebilecek bir yap\u0131ya haizdir. Bu sebepledir ki, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu kadar, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n bu kapsamda ortak bir ak\u0131lla programlar y\u00fcr\u00fctmesi de, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ak\u0131beti i\u00e7in \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130slam D\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131 ulusal g\u00fcvenlik risk puanlar\u0131 nezdinde:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>En riskli \u00fclkeler: Hindistan, Banglade\u015f, M\u0131s\u0131r, Irak, Nijerya ve Endonezya\u2019d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye, T\u00fcrkmenistan ve Kazakistan en az risk ihtiva eden \u00fclkelerdir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu kapsamda bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada olu\u015fturulan risk yap\u0131s\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n bireysel etkin bir m\u00fccadele pek de tutarl\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckmemektedir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n \u015fimdiden uygulanabilir ve fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 baz\u0131 ortak iklim politikalar\u0131 geli\u015ftirmesi gereklidir. Bu s\u00fcrecin \u00f6neminin idraki hususuna ve sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131labilecek uygulanabilir ad\u0131mlara bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada de\u011finilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O\u011fuzhan Akyener \/ TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 &nbsp; \u00d6ZET \u00a0 \u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik politikalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131na d\u00e2hil edilen ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyay\u0131 daha fazla etkisi alt\u0131na alan\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12977,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[148],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-12528","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-makaleler"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast 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