{"id":2626,"date":"2016-12-03T10:55:35","date_gmt":"2016-12-03T08:55:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2626"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:20","slug":"petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-03-aralik-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-03-aralik-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (03 Aral\u0131k 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Kemal AYDIN<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta petrol piyasalar\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn planlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek, en son 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan, OPEC \u00f6nderli\u011finde \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131. Haftaya $46\/varil seviyesinde ba\u015flayan ham petrol (WTI) fiyat\u0131 hafta i\u00e7erisinde $51,78\u2019e kadar y\u00fckselirken haftay\u0131 $51,66\u2019dan kapatt\u0131. Motorinin ICE borsas\u0131nda kontrat fiyat\u0131 ise hafta ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 $430\/Ton iken en y\u00fcksek seviye $477,50\/Ton ve kapan\u0131\u015f $475,88\/Ton olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n resmiyet kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan halihaz\u0131rda $52\u2019\u0131 test eden ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015fman\u0131n y\u00fcr\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011fe girece\u011fi Ocak ay\u0131 \u00f6ncesi ABD stok verilerinde beklentinin \u00fczerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi veya yay\u0131nlanan raporlarda \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnmesi durumunda $50\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na gerilemesi muhtemel. Ayr\u0131ca 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 beklenen $55 seviyesinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi ile $55-$60 band\u0131na oturmas\u0131 beklendi\u011finden fiyat\u0131n $55 seviyesini g\u00f6rmesi \u00f6nem arz ediyor.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en hafta Suudilerin kesintiye gerek kalmadan piyasan\u0131n dengelenece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemelerine ra\u011fmen bir\u00e7ok analist bir \u00e7e\u015fit kesinti anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131yordu. Piyasadaki iyimser yakla\u015f\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131 desteklemeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcrken piyasan\u0131n Trump\u2019\u0131 fiyatlamay\u0131 tamamlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yorumlar\u0131 dolar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam edebilece\u011finin sinyalini vermesiyle petrol fiyat\u0131nda hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda bask\u0131\u00a0 olu\u015fturdu.<\/p>\n

30 Kas\u0131m\u2019da bakanlar d\u00fczeyinde yap\u0131lan OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi OPEC uzmanlar\u0131n\u0131n yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu toplant\u0131lar Pazartesi sona ererken herhangi bir planl\u0131 kesintinin kesin detaylar\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u0130hracat\u0131n\u0131n 3\/2\u2019si Asya\u2019ya olan Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Hindistan ve \u00c7in hacmini art\u0131rmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen d\u00fczenli olarak piyasa pay\u0131 azalmakta. Ba\u015fta Rusya ve Irak Asya paylar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaktalar. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re Suudilerin d\u00f6nemlik kontratlardan ziyade sat\u0131\u015f y\u00f6ntemini b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarl\u0131 spot kargolara ve de\u011fi\u015fken fiyatlara uyarlamas\u0131 gerekli g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir.<\/p>\n

Para y\u00f6neticileri OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi Kas\u0131m 22\u2019ye kadar olan haftada al\u0131m pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131lar. New York ve Londra borsalar\u0131ndaki al\u0131m kontrat\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131 toplam 23.873 olurken toplamda 192.095\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba yap\u0131lan OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131yla ilgili ilk d\u00fc\u015fen haberlerde \u0130ran ve Irak Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n kesinti i\u00e7in yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131ya direnmekte oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenmi\u015fti. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 otele girilirken Irak\u2019l\u0131 delegeler bas\u0131n mensuplar\u0131na bug\u00fcn anla\u015fma yap\u0131lacak a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yaparken Iran bakan\u0131 Zanganeh\u2019in ilk yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klama ise \u201c\u0130yimserim\u201d olmu\u015ftu. Resmi kaynakland\u0131r\u0131lmayan habere g\u00f6re \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n OPEC\u2019e yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 emailde Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretimini 1 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn kadar azaltmas\u0131 talep edildi. Cezayir\u2019de var\u0131lan anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re OPEC \u00fcretim tavan\u0131 32.5-33 milyon varil olacak. \u015eu anki \u00fcretim seviyesi 33,64 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn. OPEC \u0130ran, Libya ve Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7e\u015fitli nedenlerle \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede kalm\u0131\u015f \u00fcretimleri nedeniyle anla\u015fmadan muaf tutulabilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u0130ran i\u00e7in bir anla\u015fmadan avantajl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011finin i\u015faretiydi.. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftalarda Riyad 0,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn kesinti teklif ederken \u0130ran i\u00e7in \u00fcretim seviyesini 3.8 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olarak tavsiye etmi\u015fti. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u0130ran kendileri i\u00e7in 4.2 milyon Suudi Arabistan i\u00e7in ise 9.5 varil limit \u00f6nermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley ve Macquire analistleri toplant\u0131dan anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 durumunda fiyatlar\u0131n $35\u2019a kadar h\u0131zla gerileyebilece\u011fi konusunda yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 uyarm\u0131\u015flard\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc resmi olarak OPEC 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 karar\u0131na vard\u0131. OPEC \u00fcyelerine ek olarak Rusya\u2019da anla\u015fmaya dahil oldu. Anla\u015fmaya g\u00f6re \u00fcretim mevcut seviye olan g\u00fcnl\u00fck 33.6 milyon varilden 32.5 milyon varile d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc. OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerin (Rusya dahil) g\u00fcnl\u00fck 0,6 milyon varil daha kesinti yapacaklar\u0131 s\u00f6ylendi. Anla\u015fma miktar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok analistin beklentisinden fazla olarak k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimin %1\u2019i kadar ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Anla\u015fma kapsam\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019a mevcut \u00fcretimin \u00fczerine g\u00fcnl\u00fck 90.000 varil daha art\u0131\u015f izni verilmesi Tahran y\u00f6netiminin zaferi olarak nitelendirildi. En b\u00fcy\u00fck kesinti 0.48 milyon varille Suudi Arabistan taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131l\u0131rken Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 0,3 milyon varil kesinti i\u00e7in anla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylenmekte.<\/p>\n

Yay\u0131nlanan baz\u0131 haberlere g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan kesintiler piyasadaki arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bitirmeye yetmeyecek, neden olarak depolanan \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin piyasaya s\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve ABD \u00fcretiminin artacak olmas\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019deki sondaj kuyusu say\u0131s\u0131ndaki hali haz\u0131rdaki art\u0131\u015f da olumsuz sinyal vermekte.<\/p>\n

Anla\u015fma detaylar\u0131:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\"\"<\/h5>\n<\/div>\n

Ortalama 1.2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck kesinti ile k\u00fcresel \u00fcretim seviyesi ayn\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda piyasadaki arz fazlas\u0131 1 y\u0131ldan k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcrede ortadan kalkarak varil fiyat\u0131nda 80 dolar seviyelerine d\u00f6n\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs\u2019tan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re y\u00fckselen fiyatlara gelecek cevap ilk olarak Amerika olmak \u00fczere \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacak bu nedenle varil fiyat\u0131n\u0131n $ 55\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 olas\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Rusya petrol \u00fcretimi Ekim ay\u0131 miktar\u0131yla hemen hemen ayn\u0131 miktarla 11.21 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Societe General OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 2017 fiyat tahminini Brent i\u00e7in 1. \u00c7eyrek ortalamas\u0131 $52,50, 4. \u00c7eyrek ortalamas\u0131 $60 ve y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131 $56 olarak revize etti. Ayr\u0131ca OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u00fcretim kesintisi miktar\u0131n\u0131n 0.5 milyon sapmayla 0.7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesini beklediklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Baker Hughes ABD sondaj kuyusu say\u0131s\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta 3 daha artarak 27 May\u0131s haftas\u0131ndan bu yana 161 artm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Bu haftan\u0131n \u00f6nemli verileri:<\/p>\n

Sal\u0131, API\u2019nin haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba, EIA\u2019in haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

Per\u015fembe, ABD i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

Cuma, Baker Hughes ABD petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 verisi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
“Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kemal AYDIN TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24 \u00a0 Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta petrol piyasalar\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn planlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek, en son 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan, OPEC \u00f6nderli\u011finde \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131. Haftaya $46\/varil…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[204],"tags":[187,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,212,225,103,197,199,226,213,214,215,286,201,229,203,116,216,134,231,217,119,120],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-2626","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","tag-abd","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-dolar","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-kuveyt","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-shell","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (03 Aral\u0131k 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-03-aralik-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (03 Aral\u0131k 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24 \u00a0 Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta petrol piyasalar\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn planlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirecek, en son 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan, OPEC \u00f6nderli\u011finde \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131ld\u0131. 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