{"id":2672,"date":"2016-10-01T14:02:02","date_gmt":"2016-10-01T11:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2672"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:20","slug":"petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-01-ekim-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-01-ekim-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (01 Ekim 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kemal AYDIN:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $45,97 motorin kontrat\u0131 ton fiyat\u0131 $416,25\u2019ten ba\u015flad\u0131. Hafta i\u00e7erisinde en y\u00fcksek seviyeler, ham petrol i\u00e7in $50 olurken motorin ton fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in $448,50 oldu. Piyasa haftaya son zamanlar\u0131n en \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmesi Cezayir\u2019deki toplant\u0131ya odaklanm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde ba\u015flad\u0131. Hafta boyunca fiyatlar toplant\u0131dan gelen haberlere ve ABD stoklar\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00f6n buldu. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc Suudilerle \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere bir anlamda pazarl\u0131\u011fa ba\u015flamalar\u0131 piyasalara moral vererek ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 $47.50\u2019ye kadar \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Daha sonra toplant\u0131dan gelen olumsuz sinyaller \u00c7ar\u015famba ak\u015fam\u0131na kadar s\u00fcren bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 trend olu\u015fturdu. ABD stok verilerinin fiyatlar\u0131 destekleyici olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki etkisi k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 oldu. \u00c7ar\u015famba ak\u015fam\u0131 \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 haberiyle fiyatlar h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi ve kademeli olarak hafta sonuna kadar y\u00fckseldi. Ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 haftay\u0131 $47,60\u2019tan, motorin ton fiyat\u0131 $447,75\u2019ten kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Rusya petrol bakan\u0131 Novak\u2019\u0131n OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131lmak i\u00e7in Cezayir\u2019e u\u00e7mas\u0131, OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 \u00fcretim kesintisine haz\u0131rland\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmi\u015fti. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaklarda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n petrol \u00fcretiminin 4\/3\u2019\u00fcn\u00fc \u00fcreten 5 b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u015firketi gelecek y\u0131l \u00fcretimleri art\u0131racaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi\u015flerdi; fakat Putin\u2019den \u00fcretimlerini azaltmalar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde emir gelirse bu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyecek.<\/p>\n

Rosneft\u2019ten bir yetkili toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi \u00fcretim kesintisi konusunda anla\u015fman\u0131n imkans\u0131z oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylerken kimsenin kimseye g\u00fcvenmedi\u011fi ve \u00fcretimlerin rekor seviyelere ta\u015f\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 konjonkt\u00fcrde \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 ihtimali g\u00f6rmediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Di\u011fer taraftan Rusya Enerji bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na yak\u0131n bir kayna\u011fa g\u00f6re Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcretimini durdurmas\u0131 ya da azaltmas\u0131 aptalca; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hazinenin paraya ihtiyac\u0131 var ve \u00fcretim \u015firketleri Rusya\u2019da yeni sahalar a\u00e7\u0131yorlar.<\/p>\n

OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi \u0130ran ayak diredi\u011fine i\u015faret eden a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapt\u0131. Bunlardan en dikkat \u00e7ekeni toplant\u0131n\u0131n tavsiye niteli\u011finde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemeleriydi. BAE taraf\u0131ndansa net bir \u015fekilde anla\u015fma taraftar\u0131 olduklar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 3. kez \u00fcretim kesintisi i\u00e7in masaya oturmas\u0131, Suudi Arabistan\u2019la \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131 konusunda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 200 bin varil kadar bir rakam\u0131n pazarl\u0131\u011f\u0131na kadar anla\u015fmaya yak\u0131n olmalar\u0131 toplant\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015fmayla sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00fcmitleri art\u0131r\u0131rken Suudi Arabistan Enerji Bakan\u0131 al Falih Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc devam eden toplant\u0131n\u0131n fikir al\u0131\u015f veri\u015fi ama\u00e7l\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. \u00a0Bakan\u0131n s\u00f6zleri anla\u015fma konusunda \u00fcmitleri ciddi \u015fekilde azaltt\u0131 ve etkisi fiyatlar \u00fczerinde de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 saatlerde \u0130ran taraf\u0131ndan da benzer bir a\u00e7\u0131klama geldi. \u0130ran petrol bakan\u0131 Zanganeh karar almak i\u00e7in do\u011fru zaman olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan API ABD stoklar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn gruplarda \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6stererek fiyatlara moral verdi. Veriye g\u00f6re ham petrol 800 bin, distile 300 bin ve benzin stoklar\u0131 3.7 milyon varil azald\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc \u00f6\u011flen saatlerinde OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan Suudilerin \u0130ran\u2019a yapm\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131 teklif reddedildi\u011fi ve toplant\u0131dan \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ajanslara d\u00fc\u015ferek fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7evirdi. OPEC kaynaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re \u0130ran kendi \u00fcretim seviyesi i\u00e7in 4.1-4.2 milyon varilde \u0131srarc\u0131 olurken di\u011fer \u00fcyeler 4 milyonun alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler. Ayr\u0131ca Rusya, Cezayir ve Katar\u2019\u0131n son dakikada bir anla\u015fma \u00e7\u0131karma \u00e7abalar\u0131 da sonu\u00e7suz kald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Suudi Enerji Bakan\u0131 Al Falih OPEC \u00fcyeleri aras\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fakat bu toplant\u0131dan sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 beklemedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Al Falih \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n maksimum seviyesinde \u00fcretim yapmas\u0131n\u0131n mant\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyerek anla\u015fma i\u00e7in olumlu bir sinyal de vermi\u015fti. Al Falih ayr\u0131ca Kas\u0131m\u2019daki OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce \u00fcretim limiti anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131labilece\u011fini de s\u00f6yledi. Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n ekonomisindeki sorunlar do\u011fal olarak \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 pazarl\u0131k g\u00fc\u00e7lerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00f6r\u00fcnen tek engel \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim seviyesi konusunda anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba ak\u015fam\u0131 2 OPEC yetkilisine dayand\u0131r\u0131lan habere g\u00f6re OPEC \u00fcyeleri 32.5 milyon varil \u00fcretim i\u00e7in anla\u015ft\u0131lar. \u015eu anki \u00fcretim seviyesi 33.24 milyon varil. Haberin ard\u0131ndan ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $3 artarak $49\u2019a kadar y\u00fckseldi. Kaynaklar hangi \u00fclkenin ne kadar \u00fcretece\u011fine kesin olarak 30 Kas\u0131m\u2019daki resmi toplant\u0131da karar verilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler. Ayr\u0131ca bir kayna\u011fa g\u00f6re OPEC \u00fcyeleri anla\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerle de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flayacaklar.<\/p>\n

OPEC Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u0130ran kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki sert tutumunu yumu\u015fatmas\u0131yla, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131na gelen tepkiler \u00fczerine 2008 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana ilk defa \u00fcretimin s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131na varm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran Petrol Bakan\u0131 Bijan Zanganeh OPEC\u2019in nadiren verilen bir karar vard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ki bu\u00e7uk y\u0131l\u0131n ard\u0131ndan OPEC piyasay\u0131 y\u00f6netebilmek i\u00e7in bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f birli\u011fine vard\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Zanganeh ve OPEC \u00fcyesi di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin petrol bakanlar\u0131 \u00fcretimin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 32.5-33.0 milyon varil aras\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131lar. Zanganeh \u00fcretimin g\u00fcnl\u00fck 700,000 varil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in anla\u015fmaya vard\u0131k dedi. Al\u0131nan bu karar ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l b\u0131rak\u0131lan OPEC \u00fcretim tavan seviyesini yeniden devreye sokacak. Fakat bu karara ra\u011fmen hangi \u00fclkenin ne kadar petrol \u00fcretece\u011fine Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak bir sonraki OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda karar verilecek. Bu toplant\u0131da \u00fcretimin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 teklifi Rusya gibi OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan di\u011fer \u00fclkelere de yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Asyal\u0131 al\u0131c\u0131lar OPEC karar\u0131na temkinli yakla\u015f\u0131yorlar. G\u00fcney Kore\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck rafinerisi SK yetkilisine g\u00f6re ciddi bir ad\u0131m at\u0131l\u0131p at\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve ne kadar s\u00fcrece\u011finin beklenip g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gerekiyor. Kesinti oran\u0131 \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck olmamas\u0131na ra\u011fmen fiyatlar\u0131 destekleyebilecek seviyede.<\/p>\n

Societe Generale\u2019den bir yetkili kesinti miktar\u0131n\u0131n 1 milyondan az belki de 500 Bin varile kadar bir miktar olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Lukoil CEO\u2019su Alekperov OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 $50 seviyesinde tutaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bu seviyenin kaya gaz\u0131 ve gaz yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n etkili olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in uygun oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Alekperov\u2019a g\u00f6re fiyat\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fc i\u00e7in Kas\u0131m toplant\u0131s\u0131 beklenecek.<\/p>\n

OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel olan \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u015fimdilik ortadan kalkm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan daha \u00f6nce bahsedilen Irak sorun olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f durumda. Irak\u2019\u0131n yeni petrol bakan\u0131 Luaibi\u2019nin kapal\u0131 kap\u0131lar ard\u0131nda Suudi ve \u0130ran bakanlar\u0131na \u00fcretim tavan\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131ndan memnun olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, son d\u00f6nemde d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fcretimlerinin dikkate al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi\u011fi iddia edildi. Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc bas\u0131n mensuplar\u0131na verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te Luaibi bahsedilen rakamlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ek \u00fcretimlerini temsil etmedi\u011fini e\u011fer Kas\u0131m ay\u0131na kadar \u00fcretim tahminleri de\u011fi\u015fmezse anla\u015fmay\u0131 kabul etmeyeceklerini ve alternatif teklif talep edeceklerini s\u00f6yledi. Luaibi daha da ileri giderek bas\u0131n toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Argus muhabirine d\u00f6n\u00fcp kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 e\u011fer h\u00fck\u00fcmet rakamlar\u0131yla farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterirlerse Irak\u2019ta \u00e7al\u0131\u015famayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019nin Enerji Temsilcisi OPEC anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n D\u00fcnya petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltece\u011fine olan inanc\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok az oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Hochstein\u2019a g\u00f6re ABD\u2019nin sondaj teknolojisi ve k\u00fcresel efektif \u00fcretim, \u00fcreticilerin \u00fcretim \u00e7at\u0131s\u0131 belirlemesine diren\u00e7li durumda. Y\u00fckselen fiyat ABD \u00fcretimini tetikleyecek ve bu anla\u015fma i\u015fe yaramayacak. Hochstein ayr\u0131ca yeni oyuncular K\u0131br\u0131s ve \u0130srail\u2019e de dikkat \u00e7ekerek bu \u00fclkelerin hi\u00e7bir kl\u00fcp ve yap\u0131lanmay\u0131 dinlemeden \u00fcretim yapacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ve D\u00fcnya\u2019daki b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fcreticilere herhangi bir s\u0131n\u0131rlama getirilmeden \u00fcretimlerine izin verilmesi gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinin ard\u0131ndan ABD \u00fcretiminin h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edilmi\u015fti fakat yaln\u0131zca g\u00fcnl\u00fck 1 milyon varil azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Bu haftan\u0131n \u00f6nemli verileri:<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba, API\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

Per\u015fembe, EIA\u2019in haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

Cuma, ABD \u0130\u015fsizlik verisi, Baker Hughes ABD petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 verisi.<\/p>\n

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“Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $45,97 motorin kontrat\u0131 ton fiyat\u0131 $416,25\u2019ten ba\u015flad\u0131. Hafta i\u00e7erisinde en\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":2674,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[204],"tags":[187,111,112,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,212,225,103,197,198,199,226,213,214,215,201,229,203,230,116,216,134,231,205,217,206,119,120,207,110],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-2672","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","tag-abd","tag-abdulhamit-han","tag-akyener","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-dolar","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-gas","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-seyl-petrolu","tag-shell","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-uea","tag-verimlilik"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (01 Ekim 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-01-ekim-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (01 Ekim 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $45,97 motorin kontrat\u0131 ton fiyat\u0131 $416,25\u2019ten ba\u015flad\u0131. 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