{"id":2787,"date":"2016-09-26T14:02:02","date_gmt":"2016-09-26T11:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2787"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:20","slug":"petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-26-eylul-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-26-eylul-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (26 Eyl\u00fcl 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Kemal AYDIN:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $44,54 motorin kontrat\u0131 ton fiyat\u0131 $414,75\u2019den ba\u015flad\u0131. Hafta i\u00e7erisinde en y\u00fcksek seviyeler, ham petrol i\u00e7in $46,47 olurken motorin ton fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in $433,14 oldu.<\/p>\n

Venez\u00fcella ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n anla\u015fmaya yak\u0131n olundu\u011funu belirtmesi, Libya\u2019da ihracat negatif i\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n tekrardan g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi gibi fiyatlar\u0131 olumlu etkileyecek haberler sonras\u0131 ham petrol haftaya 1.5% \u00fcst\u00fcnde primle ba\u015fland\u0131.<\/p>\n

CFTC verilerine g\u00f6re para y\u00f6neticilerinin k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda ge\u00e7en hafta azal\u0131\u015fa gitmesi ve net uzun pozisyonlarda 26 \u2013 28 Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi art\u0131\u015f teknik olarak \u015fubat ortas\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015f trendi deste\u011finin k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7le\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nceki hafta 6.2% d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6steren petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ge\u00e7en hafta pozitif haber ak\u0131\u015f\u0131yla ba\u015flanmas\u0131 ve teknik olarak \u015fubat ortas\u0131ndan ba\u015flayan y\u00fckseli\u015f trendinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir destek konumunda olmas\u0131 bu hafta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesi mevcut k\u0131sa pozisyonlarda azal\u0131m\u0131n devam\u0131na (risk azalt\u0131lmas\u0131) neden olmu\u015f olabilir.<\/p>\n

Venezuela petrol bakan\u0131 Del Pino verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te arz-talep dengesinin olu\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in D\u00fcnya\u2019daki mevcut g\u00fcnl\u00fck 94 milyon varil \u00fcretimin 10\u2019da 1 seviyesinde azalmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Del Pino adil seviyedeki fiyat\u0131n $70 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da ekledi. \u00dcretim dondurma konusunda OPEC \u00fcyesi ve \u00fcye olmayan \u00fclkelere en \u00e7ok bask\u0131 yapan devlet olan Venezuela\u2019n\u0131n arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n miktar\u0131 i\u00e7in ilk kez birincil a\u011f\u0131zdan yorumuna rastland\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n etkisiyle fiyatlarda gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Brezilya devletinin petrol \u015firketi Petrobras 2020 y\u0131l\u0131 planlanan \u00fcretim seviyesine ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in yapaca\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 6\u2019da 1 seviyesinde azaltma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. \u00d6zel \u015firketler b\u00fcy\u00fck oranlarda petrol arama ve \u00fcretim yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131sarlarken devlet i\u015ftirakleri de onlar\u0131 takip ediyor.<\/p>\n

WTI ve Brent \u00f6nceki 6 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fcler. Fiyatlar\u0131n gerilemesinde 26-28 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de Cezayir\u2019de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n kat\u0131l\u0131m\u0131yla yap\u0131lacak gayri resmi OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 umutlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131. OPEC ba\u015fkan\u0131 anla\u015fman\u0131n 1 y\u0131l kadar s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Venezuela petrol bakan\u0131 Del Pino OPEC \u00fcye ve \u00fcye olmayan \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretim dondurma konusunda anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ham petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 $10 \u2013 $15 kadar art\u0131rabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Bu tahmin motorin ton fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in $550 seviyesi demek. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n yap\u0131lacak olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen OPEC \u00fclkeleri Suudi Arabistan, \u0130ran, Irak, Nijerya ve Libya son aylarda \u00fcretimlerini art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Mevcut piyasada varillerin s\u00fcrekli artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumda analistler fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi i\u00e7in temellere dayal\u0131 hi\u00e7 bir neden g\u00f6remediklerini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer taraftan yak\u0131n tarihte OPEC \u00fcretiminin aksayaca\u011f\u0131ndan kayg\u0131 duyan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden al\u0131m yapmaktalar. Sonu\u00e7 olarak onlar i\u00e7in dip seviyelerde yap\u0131lan al\u0131mlar\u0131n risk maliyeti \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck.<\/p>\n

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan API ABD stok verilerine g\u00f6re ham petrol stoklar\u0131 7.5 milyon, benzin stoklar\u0131 2.5 milyon varil \u00e7ekilirken distile stoklar\u0131 1.4 milyon art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Verinin verdi\u011fi moralle motorin fiyat\u0131nda $10 iyile\u015fme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba a\u00e7\u0131klanan EIA ABD stok verilerine g\u00f6re ise ham petrol stoklar\u0131 6.2 milyon, benzin stoklar\u0131 3.2 milyon varil \u00e7ekilirken distile stoklar\u0131 2.23 milyon art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Verinin ard\u0131ndan motorin fiyat\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k $5 l\u0131k art\u0131\u015fla fiyat $420 seviyesine yerle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bir Citi Grup analistine g\u00f6re stok verisinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesi f\u0131rt\u0131na nedeniyle devam eden \u00fcretim ve tedarik zinciri sorunlar\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 olabilir. Yani talebi belirlemek i\u00e7in bu veri dikkate al\u0131nmamal\u0131.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de ara\u00e7 kullan\u0131m mevsiminin ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen rafineriler \u00fcst seviye \u00fcretime devam ediyorlar (16.6 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn). Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu rakam 16.2 milyondu. ABD\u2019de ham petrol ithalat\u0131 y\u00fcksek seviyede kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen (8.3 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn) ABD rafinerilerinin y\u00fcksek \u00fcretimi stoklar\u0131n azalmas\u0131na neden oldu. Bu veriden yola \u00e7\u0131karak normal \u015fartlarda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta rafine petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri sto\u011funda art\u0131\u015f beklenebilir.<\/p>\n

Benzindeki \u00e7ekilme Colonial boru hatt\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131ndan kaynakl\u0131 olabilir. Senato in\u015faat\u0131 onaylad\u0131 ve benzin stoklar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftadan itibaren talebi g\u00f6sterecek \u015fekilde normal olarak gelebilir.<\/p>\n

2004 ve 2008\u2019de Cezayir\u2019de yap\u0131lan OPEC toplant\u0131lar\u0131nda \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. OPEC yetkilileri ve kaynaklar\u0131na g\u00f6re 8 y\u0131l sonra yeniden \u00fcretim kesintisi anla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ihtimali bulunuyor. Toplant\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde Irak taraf\u0131ndan fiyatlar\u0131 daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekecek herhangi bir hareketin i\u00e7inde olmayacaklar\u0131, \u00fcretim anla\u015fmas\u0131 olmas\u0131 durumunda engellemeyecekleri a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 geldi.<\/p>\n

Suudi ve \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkililerin ge\u00e7en hafta Viyana\u2019da topland\u0131lar. Herhangi bir \u00fcretim anla\u015fmas\u0131 olmas\u0131 durumunda ne \u015fekilde olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fecekleri s\u00f6yleniyor. \u0130ran, Irak, Arabistan ve Rusya gibi \u00fcreticilerin \u00fcretim seviyelerini maksimum seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131klar\u0131, OPEC \u00fcyelerini memnun etmeyen fiyatta $45-$50 seviyesinin a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 mevcut durumda bir \u00e7e\u015fit \u00fcretim anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak. Analistlere g\u00f6re anla\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcndeki en b\u00fcy\u00fck engel \u0130ran ve belli derecede Irak. Bu nedenle Arabistan ve \u0130ran g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeleri \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. G\u00fcnl\u00fck bir milyon varil \u00fcretim azaltma anla\u015fmas\u0131 bile y\u0131l boyunca 290-330 milyon varil azalma sa\u011flayarak ABD \u00fcretimi artsa bile arz-talep dengesini sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Bu haftan\u0131n \u00f6nemli verileri:<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba, API\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

Per\u015fembe, ABD ev sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 verisi, EIA\u2019in haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

Cuma, Baker Hughes ABD petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 verisi.<\/p>\n

Yazan: Kemal AYDIN, 26.09.2016<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\n
“Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $44,54 motorin kontrat\u0131 ton fiyat\u0131 $414,75\u2019den ba\u015flad\u0131. Hafta i\u00e7erisinde en\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2788,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[204],"tags":[187,111,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,212,225,103,197,198,199,226,213,214,215,201,229,203,230,116,216,134,231,205,217,206,119,120,207,110],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-2787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","tag-abd","tag-abdulhamit-han","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-dolar","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-gas","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-seyl-petrolu","tag-shell","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-uea","tag-verimlilik"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (26 Eyl\u00fcl 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-26-eylul-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (26 Eyl\u00fcl 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $44,54 motorin kontrat\u0131 ton fiyat\u0131 $414,75\u2019den ba\u015flad\u0131. 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