{"id":2829,"date":"2016-06-12T11:02:02","date_gmt":"2016-06-12T08:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2829"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:22","slug":"kopya-petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-12-haziran-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/kopya-petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-12-haziran-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (12 Haziran 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Kemal AYDIN:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n

 <\/p>\n

Evvelki hafta OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 konusunda sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 ve ABD istihdam verisinin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalarak FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle bir anlamda dengelenen ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya $ 48,75 seviyesinden ba\u015flad\u0131. Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc piyasalar FED ba\u015fkan\u0131 Yellen\u2019in konu\u015fmas\u0131na kitlenmi\u015fti. Yellen\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda verece\u011fi ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00f6nem arzediyordu. Yellen konu\u015fmas\u0131nda ekonomik verileri takip ederek gelecek i\u00e7in faiz kararlar\u0131n\u0131 verebilecekleri gibi \u00e7ok iyimser alg\u0131lanmayan bir konu\u015fma yapt\u0131. Konu\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Dolar kur sepetine g\u00f6re 4 haftan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine gerilerken ham petrol fiyat\u0131nda yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareket g\u00f6zlendi. Konu\u015fman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ham petrol fiyat\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme 70 sent kadar oldu ve fiyat $49.70\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ba\u015fkan Yellen ekonomideki art\u0131lar\u0131n eksilerden fazla oldu\u011funu, May\u0131s ay\u0131 istihdam verisinin k\u00f6t\u00fc geldi\u011fini ama tek bir veriye bakarak karar verilmemesi gerekti\u011fini ve uygun ko\u015fullar olu\u015ftu\u011funda kademeli bir \u015fekilde faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Temmuz ay\u0131nda bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklemek i\u00e7in mutlaka g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Haziran ay\u0131na tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verisi ve ayn\u0131 zamanda May\u0131s ay\u0131 verisinde g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir d\u00fczeltme \u015fart g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Dolardaki ani d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle petrol ve t\u00fcrevleri i\u00e7in fiyatlar yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc desteklenmi\u015f oldu. Dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 dolarla fiyatlanan petrol i\u00e7in talebi art\u0131ran bir etken. Uzmanlara g\u00f6re fiyat\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda h\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda son 20 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fcretim seviyesinde olan Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n altyap\u0131s\u0131na yap\u0131lan ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 oldu. \u015eimdiye kadar Nijerya ve Libya\u2019n\u0131n arz kesintileri artan orta do\u011fu, \u00f6zellikle \u0130ran \u00fcretimiyle dengelenmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor; di\u011fer taraftan \u0130ran \u00fcretim kapasitesini beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor. G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015fe g\u00f6re ge\u00e7ici \u00fcretim kesintileri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n artan \u00fcretimiyle dengeli seyretmeyecek, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ekstra \u00fcretimi direk arz fazlas\u0131 olacak. Buna ek olarak evvelki haftaki art\u0131\u015fla bu y\u0131l ikinci kez artan ABD petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fckselen fiyatlar\u0131n \u00fcreticilerin i\u015ftahlar\u0131n\u0131 kabartt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. ABD \u00fcretimi taraf\u0131nda Ocak\u2019tan bu yana % 5.4, 2015\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren neredeyse %10 (8.74 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn) azalma var.<\/p>\n

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lan anketlerde ABD stoklar\u0131nda \u00e7ekilme beklentisi oldu\u011fu haberleri yay\u0131ld\u0131 ve fiyat yukar\u0131 do\u011fru hareketini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ayn\u0131 g\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klanan API verisine g\u00f6re, s\u00f6ylentilerle paralel olarak, ham petrol stoklar\u0131 3,56 milyon varil \u00e7ekildi. Ham petrol Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc $50\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde kapatt\u0131. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan EIA stok verilerine g\u00f6re ise ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131 3,2 milyon varil azald\u0131. B\u00f6ylelikle ABD ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 3 hafta \u00fcst\u00fcste azalma ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f oldu. Stok verisiyle birlikte Dolar\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkisiyle ham petrol fiyat\u0131 \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc $ 51,50\u2019un \u00fczerinde kapatt\u0131. Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan haftal\u0131k ABD i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 verisinin olumlu gelmesinin ard\u0131ndan Dolar de\u011fer kazanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Dolar\u2019la ters orant\u0131l\u0131 olarak ham petrol fiyat\u0131 Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girdi. G\u00fcn sonunda ham petrol fiyat\u0131 $ 50,50\u2019ye kadar geriledi. \u00a011 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerinden kar realizasyonu yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fte etkili olurken petrol piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in haftan\u0131n \u00f6nemli verilerinden ABD kuyu say\u0131s\u0131 beklendi\u011fi \u00fczere yine artt\u0131. Art\u0131\u015f say\u0131s\u0131 3. Kuyu say\u0131s\u0131ndaki d\u00fczenli art\u0131\u015f ABD arz\u0131n\u0131n geri geliyor oldu\u011fu konusunda piyasay\u0131 endi\u015felendirmekte. Hafta ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6steren ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 haftan\u0131n sonuna do\u011fru fiyat\u0131 bask\u0131layan veriler sonucunda yeniden $49\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve haftay\u0131 $48,93\u2019dan kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Petrol t\u00fcketimindeki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc art\u0131\u015f ve b\u00fcy\u00fck arz kesintileri k\u00fcresel petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden dengeye d\u00f6nd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015f gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0 Ucuzlayan benzinin ABD, Hindistan ve Meksika gibi ekonomilerde t\u00fcketiminin artmas\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in k\u00fcresel ham petrol talebini g\u00fcnde 1.4 milyon varil art\u0131\u015fa neden olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda t\u00fcketim 1.8 milyon varil artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131 ve 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda da 1 milyon varil daha art\u0131\u015f bekleniyor. \u00dcretim taraf\u0131ndaysa mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in yeterli olmamas\u0131 nedeniyle ABD petrol \u00fcretiminde 2015-16 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in 700 Bin varil\/g\u00fcn azalma bekleniyor. Libya, Nijerya, Venezuela ve Kanada\u2019n\u0131n arz\u0131nda ya\u015fanan kesintiler g\u00fcnl\u00fck 3 milyon varilden fazla olarak hesaplanmakta. Petrol ve t\u00fcrevlerinin stoklar\u0131 hala y\u00fcksek olsa da art\u0131k art\u0131\u015f durmu\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

Genellikle stoklar\u0131n artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemler gelecek vadeli kontratlarda \u201ccontango\u201d olu\u015fmas\u0131na neden olur. Bu durumda yak\u0131n tarihli kontratlar\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131 sonraki vadelerden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr.<\/p>\n

Talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015fen stoklar normal \u015fartlarda \u201cbackwardation\u201d\u2019a neden olur. Bu durumda yak\u0131n tarihli kontratlar ileri tarihlilerden daha y\u00fcksek fiyatl\u0131d\u0131r. g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nem arz eden veriler:<\/p>\n

Sal\u0131, API haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba, EIA\u2019in haftal\u0131k ABD petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi, FED faiz karar\u0131<\/p>\n

Per\u015fembe, ABD i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131<\/p>\n

Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Baker Hughes ABD petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 verisi.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
“Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24   Evvelki hafta OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 konusunda sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 ve ABD istihdam verisinin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalarak FED\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2830,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[101,204,117,108],"tags":[187,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,224,212,225,103,197,198,199,226,213,227,214,215,228,201,229,203,230,116,216,134,231,205,217,206,119,120,207,110],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-2829","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-belge","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","tag-abd","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-brexit","tag-dolar","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-gas","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-katar-arabistan","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-kuveyt-urdun","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-seyl-petrolu","tag-shell","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-uea","tag-verimlilik"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (12 Haziran 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/kopya-petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-12-haziran-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (12 Haziran 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24   Evvelki hafta OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 konusunda sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 ve ABD istihdam verisinin beklentinin alt\u0131nda kalarak FED\u2019in 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