{"id":2837,"date":"2016-05-30T11:02:02","date_gmt":"2016-05-30T08:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2837"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:22","slug":"petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-6-haziran-2016-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-6-haziran-2016-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (30 May\u0131s 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Kemal AYDIN:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Haftaya $48,15 seviyelerinde ba\u015flayan ham petrol Sal\u0131 ak\u015fam\u0131na kadar y\u00f6n arayarak yatay seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Irak \u00fcretiminde beklenmedik azalma haberi fiyatlarda etkisini g\u00f6stererek yukar\u0131 do\u011fru destekledi ve ham petrol $49\u2019\u0131 yeniden a\u015ft\u0131. Ocak ay\u0131nda 4.7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn \u00fcretimi olan Irak\u2019ta k\u00f6t\u00fc hava \u015fartlar\u0131, bak\u0131mlar ve elektrik kesintileri nedeniyle Kerk\u00fck \u00fcretimi azalarak genel \u00fcretim 4.5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn\u2019e \u00a0geriledi.<\/p>\n

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan API verilerine g\u00f6re Amerika\u2019da benzin stoklar\u0131 hari\u00e7 di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin stoklar\u0131nda ciddi \u00e7ekilme oldu. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan EIA verileri de API\u2019ye paralel olarak ham petrol stoklar\u0131nda 4.2 milyon distile de 1.2 milyon varil \u00e7ekilme, benzin de ise 2 milyon varil art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. Benzindeki stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 piyasaya kar\u0131\u015f\u0131k mesajlar vermi\u015f olsa da \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc fiyat $50\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0 Fiyat\u0131n $50\u2019\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131 ile g\u00f6zler \u00fcretime \u00e7evrilirken \u00fcretimin fiyat\u0131n verdi\u011fi moralle artmas\u0131 ihtimali y\u00fcksek bu da ralliye son verebilir. Bununla birlikte yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar Kanada\u2019daki yang\u0131nlar ve Nijerya\u2019daki sald\u0131r\u0131lar gibi \u00fcretimi etkileyen olaylar\u0131n uzun s\u00fcrmeyece\u011fi konusunda hem fikirler.<\/p>\n

Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc Yellen\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n uygun olabilece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 Dolar\u2019\u0131 yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti ve petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 da bask\u0131lam\u0131\u015f oldu. Bununla birlikte yakla\u015f\u0131k 8 ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesi olan $50\u2019dan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar kar realizasyonu yaparken sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131 ve ham petrol haftay\u0131 $49,48\u2019den kapatt\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftaya $48\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda ba\u015flanabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar ve bu durumda $50 seviyesinde al\u0131m durumunda olmaktan \u00e7ekindiler denilebilir.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta petrol fiyat\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen di\u011fer geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda;<\/p>\n

Amerika\u2019daki petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131ndaki azalma sona ermi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re yaln\u0131zca 2 kuyu eksilme oldu.<\/p>\n

Rusya Nisan ay\u0131yla birlikte bu y\u0131l 2. kez \u00c7in\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck tedarik\u00e7isi oldu. \u00d6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019e yap\u0131klar\u0131 ithalat miktar\u0131 % 52 artarak g\u00fcnde 1.17 milyon varile y\u00fckseldi. Rusya toplam ihracat\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7eyre\u011fini \u00c7in\u2019e yapmakta.<\/p>\n

Amerika\u2019daki rafineriler dizel talebinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011fu ve yerel \u00fcretimin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bu d\u00f6nemde aylar sonra ilk kez y\u00fcksek marjin avantaj\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015f\u0131yorlar. Yumu\u015fak ge\u00e7en k\u0131\u015f \u015fartlar\u0131 nedeniyle \u0131s\u0131nma ama\u00e7l\u0131 kullan\u0131lan dizel direk depolamaya gitti\u011fi i\u00e7in ciddi bir envanter olu\u015fmu\u015ftu ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re rafineri karlar\u0131 %74 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6sterdi. G\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc talep rafinericiler i\u00e7in ilgin\u00e7 bir zamanda geldi. Rafineriler tatil sezonu i\u00e7in benzin \u00fcretimine odaklanm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Ge\u00e7en haftaki dizel sto\u011fundaki \u00e7ekilme 1982 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7en en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7ekilme oldu.<\/p>\n

Evvelki hafta petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131nda ciddi etki yapan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Goldman Sachs Pazartesi yeni a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yapt\u0131. Sachs\u2019a g\u00f6re 2020\u2019ye kadar petrol fiyatlar\u0131 $50-$60 band\u0131nda olacak ve $60\u2019l\u0131k s\u0131n\u0131ra \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l yakla\u015f\u0131lma ihtimali y\u00fcksek. Ayr\u0131ca Sachs OECD \u00fclkelerinin stoklar\u0131ndaki \u00e7ekilme ve arz kesintileri nedeniyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 6 ay boyunca fiyatlar\u0131n artamaya devam edece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Ham petrol i\u00e7in y\u0131llara g\u00f6re ortalama fiyat tahminleri: 2016: $45, 2017: $53, 2018: $60, 2019: $55, 2020: $50. B\u00f6ylelikle Sachs bir hafta arayla 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 tahminini $7 art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

Rus bakan Novak\u2019\u0131n tahminine g\u00f6re bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in ham petrol fiyat\u0131 $40 \u2013 $50 seviyesinde. Novak Atina\u2019da verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te fiyat\u0131n $50\u2019\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan e\u011fer bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke fiyatlar\u0131n dengelendi\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrse \u00fcretim kesintisi konusunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerin yava\u015f yava\u015f ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

17 Nisan\u2019da yap\u0131lan Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131 \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 konusunda \u00fcmitler 2 Haziran\u2019da yap\u0131lacak OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Toplant\u0131ya az bir s\u00fcre kala \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00fcmitleri k\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130ran, \u00fcretiminin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00f6ncesi seviyesine ula\u015fmadan herhangi bir kesintiye gitmeyece\u011fini yeniden dile getirdi. Ayr\u0131ca Rusya toplant\u0131ya temsilci g\u00f6ndermiyor.<\/p>\n

Evvelki hafta verilerine g\u00f6re fon y\u00f6neticileri \u00fcretim kesintilerinin etkisiyle al\u0131m kontratlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Al\u0131m future ve opsiyon say\u0131lar\u0131 35.657 art\u0131\u015fla 253.689 say\u0131s\u0131na ula\u015ft\u0131. Ancak bu hafta $50\u2019\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 hem psikolojik e\u015fik olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan hem de teknik olarak fiyatlarda d\u00fczelme olaca\u011f\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00c7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckselen fiyatlardaki d\u00fczelmeden \u00e7ekinen \u00fcreticiler ve spek\u00fclat\u00f6rler bu seviyelerden sat\u0131\u015f durumuna ge\u00e7iyorlar; \u00f6zellikle \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fcreticinin bu seviyeden kendilerini hedge yapm\u0131\u015f olma ihtimalleri y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nem arz eden veriler:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Sal\u0131, Amerika yeni ev sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131, API haftal\u0131k Amerika petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n
    • \u00c7ar\u015famba, EIA\u2019in haftal\u0131k Amerika petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi, \u00c7in ticari denge verileri,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
        \n
      • Per\u015fembe, Amerika i\u015fsizlik ba\u015fvurular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
          \n
        • Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Amerika tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 istihdam verileri ve Baker Hughes Amerika petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 verileri.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

           <\/p>\n

           <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

          <\/div>\n
          “Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
          \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
          \u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

          \"\"<\/p>\n

          TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

          TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

           <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Haftaya $48,15 seviyelerinde ba\u015flayan ham petrol Sal\u0131 ak\u015fam\u0131na kadar y\u00f6n arayarak yatay seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Irak \u00fcretiminde\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[101,204,117,108],"tags":[187,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,224,212,225,103,197,198,199,226,213,227,214,215,228,201,229,203,230,116,216,134,231,205,217,206,119,120,207,110],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-2837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-belge","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","tag-abd","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-brexit","tag-dolar","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-gas","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-katar-arabistan","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-kuveyt-urdun","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-seyl-petrolu","tag-shell","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-uea","tag-verimlilik"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (30 May\u0131s 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-6-haziran-2016-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (30 May\u0131s 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Haftaya $48,15 seviyelerinde ba\u015flayan ham petrol Sal\u0131 ak\u015fam\u0131na kadar y\u00f6n arayarak yatay seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 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