{"id":2843,"date":"2016-05-16T11:02:02","date_gmt":"2016-05-16T08:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2843"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:22","slug":"petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-16-mayis-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-16-mayis-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (16 May\u0131s 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Kemal AYDIN:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
\n

Piyasada artan benzin ve dizel miktar\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cfuture\u201d larda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na neden oldu. B\u00f6ylece arz fazlas\u0131, Kanada\u2019daki yang\u0131nlar\u0131n tersine \u00e7evirdi\u011fi fiyat hareketini s\u00fcbvanse etmi\u015f oldu. \u201cFuture\u201dlardaki sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131, talebin en y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu yaz d\u00f6neminde bile t\u00fcketimin stok fazlas\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131 niteli\u011finde.<\/p>\n

Libya\u2019daki kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k, Nijerya\u2019daki ter\u00f6r olaylar\u0131, Kanada\u2019daki orman yang\u0131nlar\u0131 ve kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcretiminin yava\u015flamas\u0131 gibi olaylar neticesinde arz daral\u0131rken rafineriler talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisiyle ful kapasite \u00fcretimlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcler. Di\u011fer taraftan rafineri karl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda ve bir\u00e7ok rafineri bak\u0131mdan \u00e7\u0131karak faaliyete ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bask\u0131layan da faaliyete ge\u00e7en rafineriler. Nisan\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 400 \u2013 440 bin varil rafineri kapasitesi kullan\u0131lm\u0131yordu; ancak bu kapasite yava\u015f yava\u015f kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flan\u0131yor. Asya\u2019daki ham petrol piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015f \u015fekilde daralmas\u0131 rafineri karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131raca\u011fa benziyor, nedeni ise ham petrol sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n rafinerilerin fiyatlama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ellerine ge\u00e7iriyor olmalar\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ocak ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan Nisan ay\u0131n\u0131n sonuna kadar $20 artan ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 \u015fimdilik h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 kaybetmi\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Rafineri marjlar\u0131 ve spredler ay\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana zay\u0131flaman\u0131n i\u015faretlerini veriyor. T\u00fcketimde g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcnen art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi beklenti d\u00e2hilinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi. Ham petrol future kontratlar\u0131 14-20 g\u00fcn hareketli ortalama seviyelerinin alt\u0131na Nisan ay\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana ilk kez geriledi. Bu da fiyat rallisinin nas\u0131l yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n somut bir g\u00f6stergesi.<\/p>\n

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen di\u011fer geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n

Brezilya Avrupa\u2019ya dizel sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapan \u00fclkeler kervan\u0131na kat\u0131ld\u0131, geleneksel rotan\u0131n tam tersi olmu\u015f durumda; bu k\u00fcresel arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ap\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015fledi\u011fini ve Latin Amerika\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi Brezilya\u2019n\u0131n ekonomisindeki gerilemeyi g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Amerika\u2019daki distile stoklar\u0131 2010\u2019dan bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Son haftalarda a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re \u00e7ekilme g\u00f6zlense de stoklardaki erime ideal h\u0131zda de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran a\u011f\u0131r ham petrol\u00fc i\u00e7in 2007-2008\u2019den bu yana en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck resmi sat\u0131\u015f fiyat\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u0130ran piyasa pay\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilmek i\u00e7in kartlar\u0131n\u0131 oynamaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

OPEC\u2019le ilgili daha \u00f6nce yap\u0131lan olumsuz a\u00e7\u0131klamalara bir yenisi daha eklendi. Rosneft CEO\u2019su OPEC\u2019in i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n kartelin birli\u011fini ve piyasaya olan etkisini \u00f6ld\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Sechin, Rosneft olarak g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin en ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri OPEC\u2019in d\u00e2hil olaca\u011f\u0131 ortak bir karar al\u0131nmas\u0131na \u015f\u00fcpheli yakla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. Rusya mevcut g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmde fayda sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi ortak \u00fcretim azaltma anla\u015fmas\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015famaya devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Kuveyt petrol bakan\u0131 \u00fclkesinin 2 Haziran\u2019daki OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan koordine bir hareket karar\u0131 beklemedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n amac\u0131n\u0131n daha \u00e7ok fiyatlar\u0131 stabilize etmek i\u00e7in al\u0131nabilecek farkl\u0131 aksiyonlar\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesi oldu\u011funu da ekledi. OPEC\u2019in 5. B\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticisi Kuveyt\u2019in bu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00fcretim dondurma anla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in umutlar\u0131n ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 2 Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ilk a\u00e7\u0131klama oldu.<\/p>\n

IEA Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda \u00f6zellikle Hindistan ve \u00c7in\u2019de artan benzin talebine dikkat \u00e7ekti. IEA dizel i\u00e7in 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fcreticilerin \u00fcretimlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f tahminini 710 bin varil\/g\u00fcn\u2019den 800 bin varil\/g\u00fcn\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131rken talep tahmininde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmad\u0131, tahmin bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in 1,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn. Di\u011fer taraftan OECD \u00fclkelerinin taleplerinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olma ihtimalinin de bulundu\u011fu rapora eklendi. IEA y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda e\u015f zamanl\u0131 stok art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u00fcretim h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 nedeniyle piyasan\u0131n arz i\u00e7inde y\u00fczebilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131yordu.<\/p>\n

Raporda IMF\u2019nin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini % 3,4\u2019ten %3,2\u2019ye \u00e7ekmi\u015f olmas\u0131ndan kaynaklanacak talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00c7in, Hindistan ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n artan t\u00fcketimiyle e\u015fitlenebilece\u011finden de bahsediliyor.<\/p>\n

Raporda ayr\u0131ca 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde Hindistan\u2019\u0131n talebinde 400 bin varil\/g\u00fcn art\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu yaz\u0131ld\u0131. Bu durum Hindistan\u2019\u0131n talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019i ge\u00e7ece\u011fi sav\u0131n\u0131 destekliyor.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta Rusya enerji bakan\u0131 Novak \u00f6nemli bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapt\u0131. Novak\u2019a g\u00f6re petrol piyasas\u0131 2017 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce dengelenmeyecek. Ayr\u0131ca g\u00fcnl\u00fck arz fazlas\u0131 \u00fcretimin 1,5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyesinde oldu\u011funu ve \u00fcretimi dondurma karar\u0131 i\u00e7in yeni g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. Rusya\u2019dan gelen karamsar a\u00e7\u0131klamalara ra\u011fmen fiyatlardaki y\u00fckseli\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcrmekte.<\/p>\n

OPEC\u2019in Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 rapora g\u00f6re Nisan ay\u0131ndaki OPEC \u00fcretimi 32,44 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Mart\u2019a g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f g\u00fcnl\u00fck 188 bin varil oldu. Bu rakam 2008\u2019den bu yana ula\u015f\u0131lan en y\u00fcksek rakam. OPEC yetkilileri art\u0131\u015f\u0131n bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011fi konusunda uyar\u0131 yapt\u0131lar.<\/p>\n

Arz durumuna b\u00fcy\u00fck pencereden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fcreticilerin d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fcretimi piyasa paylar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken OPEC \u00fcyesi \u00fclkeler piyasa paylar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretimlerini art\u0131rarak ele ge\u00e7iriyorlar.<\/p>\n

Haftaya $45,79 seviyesinden ba\u015flayan ham petrol k\u00fcresel arz fazlas\u0131 endi\u015feleriyle Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc $43,07 seviyesine kadar geriledi. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan Amerika ham petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi stoklar\u0131n Mart\u2019tan bu yana resmi verilere g\u00f6re ilk kez azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi. A\u00e7\u0131klanan EIA verilerine g\u00f6re benzin ve distile stoklar\u0131 da beklenenden fazla azald\u0131. Verinin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131ndan sonra fiyatlarda ralli ya\u015fan\u0131rken ham petrol fiyat\u0131 $45,69\u2019a kadar y\u00fckseldi. H\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fi s\u0131n\u0131rlayan etken Cushing stoklar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oldu. Haftan\u0131n sonuna kadar fiyat $46\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde seyretti ve ham petrol fiyat\u0131 haftay\u0131 $46,38\u2019dan kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nem arz eden veriler:<\/p>\n

Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc API\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 haftal\u0131k Amerika petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

\u00c7ar\u015famba, EIA\u2019in haftal\u0131k Amerika petrol stoklar\u0131 verisi,<\/p>\n

Cuma a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Baker Hughes Amerika petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 verisi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n
“Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24 Piyasada artan benzin ve dizel miktar\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cfuture\u201d larda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na neden oldu. B\u00f6ylece arz\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":63,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[101,204,106,117,108],"tags":[187,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,224,212,225,103,197,198,199,226,213,227,214,215,228,201,229,203,230,116,216,134,231,205,217,206,119,120,207,110],"ppma_author":[2033],"class_list":["post-2843","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-belge","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","tag-abd","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-brexit","tag-dolar","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-gas","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-katar-arabistan","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-kuveyt-urdun","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-seyl-petrolu","tag-shell","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-uea","tag-verimlilik"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (16 May\u0131s 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-16-mayis-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (16 May\u0131s 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24 Piyasada artan benzin ve dizel miktar\u0131 Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc \u201cfuture\u201d larda h\u0131zl\u0131 bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131na neden oldu. 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