{"id":2852,"date":"2016-04-30T10:02:02","date_gmt":"2016-04-30T07:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2852"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:22","slug":"petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-24-nisan-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-24-nisan-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (24 Nisan 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kemal AYDIN:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
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 <\/p>\n

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Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerginlik ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131k nedeniyle sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle fiyatlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015fok bir hareket ya\u015fand\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen piyasada FOB-CIF teslim vadeli fiyatlar\u0131 makas\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n da i\u015faret etti\u011fi gibi talepte iyile\u015fme olmas\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. Bununla birlikte Pazartesi K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in politik olarak \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00dcrd\u00fcn Tahran konsolosunu belirsiz bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in \u00fclkesine geri \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131. Sebep olarak \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Arap \u00fclkelerinin i\u00e7i\u015flerine kar\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 g\u00f6sterilirken sorun \u0130ran ve Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda \u015eii liderlerin idam\u0131yla ba\u015flayan gerginlikti ve bu gerginli\u011fin kapsam\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f oldu. K\u00f6rfez b\u00f6lgesinde politik riskin artmas\u0131 arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fini tehdit ederek fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine neden oluyor. Pazartesi ya\u015fanan bir di\u011fer geli\u015fme \u00f6nemli \u00fcreticilerden Nijerya\u2019da Boko Haram ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcn orduya ba\u011fl\u0131 askerlere sald\u0131rmas\u0131 oldu. \u0130ki intihar sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren \u00f6rg\u00fct \u00fclkedeki ter\u00f6r endi\u015felerini art\u0131rd\u0131. Nijerya g\u00fcnl\u00fck 2 Milyon 427 Bin varil \u00fcretimiyle OPEC \u00fcyesi ve 7. En b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcretici konumunda (Kaynak: EIA).<\/p>\n

Brent vadeli kontrat fiyatlar\u0131 piyasan\u0131n 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda arz-talep fark\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Haziran ve Temmuz vadeleri aras\u0131nda 17 sent backwardation (depor) olu\u015fmu\u015f durumda. Temmuz ve A\u011fustos vadeleri aras\u0131nda ise 23 sente kadar gerilemi\u015f contango (repor) var.<\/p>\n

Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Kuveyt\u2019te petrol \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131lan grev sonucunda \u00fclkede \u00fcretim kapasitesi 2.8 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn\u2019den 1.1 Milyon varil\/g\u00fcn\u2019e geriledi. Analistler kesintinin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli olmas\u0131n\u0131 ve piyasalar\u0131n k\u0131sa s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde yeniden arz fazlas\u0131na odaklanmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledikleri yorumunu yapm\u0131\u015flard\u0131. Beklendi\u011fi gibi grev 3 g\u00fcnle s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalarak \u00c7ar\u015famba sabah saat 7 itibariyle \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar g\u00f6revlerine geri d\u00f6nd\u00fcler.<\/p>\n

Amerika\u2019daki petrol kuyular\u0131 say\u0131s\u0131 5. Hafta \u00fcst\u00fcste d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ard\u0131ndan 2009 y\u0131l\u0131 seviyesine geriledi. Say\u0131 343\u2019e kadar gerilerken ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde rakam 703\u2019t\u00fc. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda Amerika\u2019da her hafta ortalama 18 petrol kuyusu kapand\u0131. Bu y\u0131l \u015fimdiye kadar kapanan kuyu say\u0131s\u0131 ise 185 oldu.<\/p>\n

Lukoil Ba\u015fkan yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Leonid Fedun Rusya\u2019n\u0131n 2. B\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u00fcreticisi \u015firketin Rusya\u2019daki \u00fcretiminin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda stabil olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fakat toplam \u00fcretimde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Lukoil halihaz\u0131rda Irak\u2019ta devasa Qurna-2 petrol sahas\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftiriyor.<\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan, Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi vermi\u015f oldu\u011fu anla\u015fma yolundaki olumlu sinyallere ra\u011fmen \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 geri ad\u0131m atmayarak bir anlamda toplant\u0131y\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kmaza s\u00fcr\u00fckledi. Toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Suudiler, toplant\u0131n\u0131n sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f sorumlusu olarak ilan edildi. Venezuela petrol bakan\u0131 Del Pino verdi\u011fi deme\u00e7te mevkida\u015f\u0131 Al-Naimi\u2019yi Suudi Arabistan h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ad\u0131na konu\u015fmamakla itham etti. Del Pino ayr\u0131ca toplant\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 sonu\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilecekken Al-Naimi\u2019nin \u00e7abalar\u0131 sonu\u00e7suz b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, karar\u0131n tamamen politik oldu\u011funu ve maalesef toplant\u0131da Suudi temsilcilerin hi\u00e7bir yetkileri bulunmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. Fiyatlardaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften en \u00e7ok zarar g\u00f6ren \u00fclke olan Venezuela\u2019n\u0131n Suudi Arabistan\u2019la aras\u0131nda 10 y\u0131ldan fazla s\u00fcredir petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle gerginlik s\u00f6z konusu. Tahmin edilmesi \u015fimdiye kadar g\u00fc\u00e7 olan Suudi politikalar\u0131 son aylarda daha \u00e7ok okunamaz hale gelmi\u015f durumda. Rusya petrol bakan\u0131 Novak\u2019a yak\u0131n bir kaynak Novak\u2019\u0131n toplant\u0131dan sonra Suudilerle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeye devam edeceklerini fakat bunun \u00e7ok zor oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Venezuela Petrol bakan\u0131 Del Pino Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131na kat\u0131lan OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerin Haziran ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131na g\u00f6zlemci olarak kat\u0131lmalar\u0131n\u0131 teklif etti. Del Pino\u2019ya g\u00f6re b\u00f6ylelikle pazarl\u0131klar yenilecek ve e\u011fer anla\u015fma yap\u0131lmazsa OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00f6ncesi Brent\u2019in fiyat\u0131n\u0131n $ 30\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini iddia etti.<\/p>\n

Novak \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc Moskova\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalarda hem Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n hem de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcretimlerini art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kapasiteye sahip olduklar\u0131n\u0131 ve Haziran\u2019a kadar \u00fcreticilerin \u00fcretim seviyelerini dondurmak i\u00e7in anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 g\u00f6rmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n petrol \u00fcretimi bu y\u0131l 540 milyon Ton (G\u00fcnl\u00fck 10. Milyon varil)\u2019i a\u015fabilece\u011fini de s\u00f6zlerine ekledi. Rusya Mart ay\u0131nda da \u00c7in\u2019in en b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol tedarik\u00e7isi oldu.<\/p>\n

Nisan ay\u0131 ihracat verileri \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretiminin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. \u0130ran\u2019dan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re \u00fcretim seviyesi 2 ay i\u00e7erisinde yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00f6ncesi seviyesine ula\u015facak. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 2 Haziran\u2019da yap\u0131lacak OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131na ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakabilir. Farkl\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ise \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n piyasa pay\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in politik oyunlar\u0131n\u0131 sonuna kadar kullanaca\u011f\u0131 finansla dezavantaja katlanaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim kesintisi konusunda Rusya ve Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131 su\u00e7layan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 yo\u011funla\u015fabilir. \u015eu anda \u00fclkenin gayri safi milli has\u0131las\u0131n\u0131n yaln\u0131zca %12\u2019si petrol gelirlerinden.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran artan ihracat\u0131n\u0131n lojisti\u011fi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck yabanc\u0131 tankerlere ihtiya\u00e7 duyuyor fakat gemi sahipleri Dolar \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalardaki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar nedeniyle \u0130ran\u2019la \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya \u00e7ok istekli de\u011filler. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 55-60 adet tankere sahip oldu\u011fu biliniyor ve tahmini olarak bunlardan 25-27 tanesi kullan\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve \u00e7o\u011funun modernizasyona ihtiyac\u0131 var.<\/p>\n

EIA\u2019in haftal\u0131k stok verilerine g\u00f6re Amerika ham petrol stoklar\u0131 beklenenden daha az artt\u0131. 2,4 milyon varil art\u0131\u015f beklenirken ar\u0131\u015f 2,08 milyon varil olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Distile stoklar\u0131nda ise beklenmedik 3,55 milyon varil azalma a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131, beklenti 300 bin varil art\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. A\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ham petrol ve t\u00fcrevlerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 bir hareket ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 $44\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. Fiyat\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda birden fazla fakt\u00f6r s\u00f6z konusu; bunlar d\u00fc\u015fen Amerika \u00fcretimi, sezonsal olarak benzin t\u00fcketiminin artmas\u0131 ve azalan \u00fcretim yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131. Mevcut durumda \u00fcretim kesintisi yap\u0131l\u0131rsa arz\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmaz.<\/p>\n

BNP Paribas 2016-17 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol fiyatlar\u0131 tahminlerini art\u0131rd\u0131. A\u00e7\u0131klanan yeni tahminlerine g\u00f6re 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 ortalamas\u0131 $1 artarak $37, 2017 i\u00e7in $2 art\u0131\u015fla $46 oldu.<\/p>\n

IEA Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Fatih Birol Tokyo\u2019da yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l petrol piyasas\u0131nda arz-talep dengesinin olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Birol ayr\u0131ca OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 700 Bin varil\/g\u00fcn azalmas\u0131n\u0131 ve gelecekte Orta Do\u011fu petrol\u00fcne ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini ekledi. Birol\u2019a g\u00f6re $ 45 seviyesi \u00fcreticileri rahatlatacak fakat pek \u00e7ok kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcreticisinin kar etmesi i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fil. Birol\u2019un a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 medyada di\u011fer fakt\u00f6rlerle birlikte h\u0131zl\u0131 fiyat hareketinde etken olarak g\u00f6sterildi.<\/p>\n

Ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc $34,33\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131karken haftay\u0131 $43,73\u2019ten kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

KEMAL AYDIN, 25.04.2016<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
“Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24   Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerginlik ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131k nedeniyle sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle fiyatlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u015fok…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":63,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[101,204,106,131,117,108,109],"tags":[187,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,224,212,225,103,197,198,199,226,213,227,214,215,228,201,229,203,230,116,216,134,231,205,217,206,119,120,207,110],"ppma_author":[2033],"class_list":["post-2852","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-belge","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","category-kose-yazilari","category-orta-dogu","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","category-turkiye","tag-abd","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-brexit","tag-dolar","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-gas","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-katar-arabistan","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-kuveyt-urdun","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-seyl-petrolu","tag-shell","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-uea","tag-verimlilik"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (24 Nisan 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-24-nisan-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (24 Nisan 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24   Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Suudi Arabistan ve \u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki gerginlik ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131k nedeniyle sonu\u00e7suz kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle 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