{"id":2858,"date":"2016-04-11T10:02:02","date_gmt":"2016-04-11T07:02:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2858"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:22","slug":"petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-11-nisan-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-11-nisan-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (11 Nisan 2016)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kemal AYDIN:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

@kemalnyc24<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n
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 <\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya 17 Nisan\u2019da Doha\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan \u00fcreticiler toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in azalan \u00fcmitler ve artan Amerikan stoklar\u0131 haberleriyle k\u00f6t\u00fcmser ba\u015flayan ham petrol Pazartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc $38 seviyesinden $35\u2019a kadar geriledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ran petrol bakan\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretimi art\u0131racaklar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tetikleyici rol oynad\u0131 denilebilir. Ham petrol, Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan API verilerinin Amerikan stoklar\u0131n\u0131n haftal\u0131k olarak d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermesiyle y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan EIA stok verilerinin API verileriyle paralel a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131yla birlikte fiyat $ 38\u2019a yakla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda Rusya petrol bakan\u0131 Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nce Suudi yetkililerle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini bas\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bahsetti\u011fi toplant\u0131 hen\u00fcz ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmedi fakat yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klama Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n Rusya i\u00e7in ne kadar \u00f6nemli g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131k bir delili. \u00c7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc fiyat\u0131n \u00a0$38 seviyesinden $36 seviyesine gerilemesi piyasada kar realizasyonu yap\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n etkisi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir. Bu harekette Amerika\u2019da benzin talebinde 14 ay sonra ilk kez d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin etkisi de yads\u0131namaz. Asya ve Amerika\u2019da s\u00fcrekli artan benzin talebi ham petrol fiyat\u0131 i\u00e7in arka planda dinamik olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Kuveyt yetkililerinin \u0130ran plana d\u00e2hil olmasa bile \u00fcretim dondurma anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan ham petrol kontratlar\u0131 Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc yakla\u015f\u0131k %7 art\u0131\u015fla 2 haftan\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131. Kuveyt\u2019in OPEC temsilcisi Al-Fezaia mevcut fiyatlar\u0131n herkese zarar verdi\u011fini ve \u00fcreticilerin \u00fcretimi dondurmadan ba\u015fka \u00e7arelerinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ham petrol varil fiyat\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n etkisiyle Cuma g\u00fcn\u00fc $ 39,64 seviyesinde kapatt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ula\u015f\u0131lan $40 seviyesi finansal olarak zor g\u00fcnler ge\u00e7iren kaya gaz\u0131 \u00fcreticileri i\u00e7in iflastan ka\u00e7\u0131nma imk\u00e2n\u0131 sa\u011flayabilir.<\/p>\n

Dolar endeksi ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz 5 ay\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durumda sat\u0131n al\u0131m taraf\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol fiyat\u0131 normal seviyenin alt\u0131nda ucuz oldu\u011fu \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131m\u0131 yap\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftan\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan di\u011fer haber ve geli\u015fmelerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda;<\/p>\n

Oklahoma Cushing\u2019de ham petrol stok seviyesi 65 milyon varili a\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Belki de arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n neye benzedi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in 23,3 km2<\/sup>\u2019lik Cushing\u2019e bakmaktan daha iyi bir se\u00e7enek olamaz. B\u00f6lgede 300 tane \u00e7elik tank bulunuyor. Bu tanklar\u0131n doluluk oran\u0131 Mart\u2019\u0131n ortalar\u0131nda zirve yaparken o g\u00fcnden bug\u00fcne d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Baz\u0131 sekt\u00f6r yetkililerine g\u00f6re y\u0131llar boyunca ula\u015f\u0131lamayacak rekor miktarlara ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bunun nedeni olarak d\u00f6nemsel rafineri bak\u0131mlar\u0131 ve \u0131s\u0131nan havalarla birlikte talebin artmas\u0131, sonu\u00e7 olarak yeniden stok y\u00fckseli\u015fi i\u00e7in neden kalmamas\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor. Di\u011fer taraftan stoklar\u0131n yeniden artaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131 yapan yetkililer de var. Bunun en mant\u0131kl\u0131 nedeni k\u00fcresel \u00fcretimde art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi olabilir. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n 2007 \u00f6ncesi \u00fcretim seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131 ve 17 Nisan\u2019da planlanan toplant\u0131dan sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 belki de \u00fcretici \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo olacak.<\/p>\n

Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5 y\u0131l boyunca petrol ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in $20 Milyar ve Sina b\u00f6lgesinin geli\u015fimi i\u00e7in $ 1,5 Milyar sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 taahh\u00fct eden anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Di\u011fer k\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleri gibi Suudi Arabistan\u2019da Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Muhammed Mursi\u2019nin devrilmesinden sonra zorda bulunan M\u0131s\u0131r ekonomisine para pompalamaya devam ediyor. K\u00f6rfez Arap \u00fclkeleri M\u00fcsl\u00fcman karde\u015fleri rejimleri i\u00e7in tehdit olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n

Total y\u00f6neticisi Arnaud Breulliac\u2019e g\u00f6re i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkilerini azaltman\u0131n tek yolu petrol ve gaz \u015firketlerinin ciddi masraf kesintilerine gitmeleri ve b\u00fct\u00e7elerini dengelemek i\u00e7in birlikte \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131. H\u00e2lihaz\u0131rda yap\u0131lan kesintilere ek olarak firmalar\u0131n birlikte hareket etmeleri ve yenilik\u00e7i \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler bulmalar\u0131 gerekiyor.<\/p>\n

Latin Amerika petrol \u00fcreticileri 8 Nisan\u2019da Quito\u2019da bulu\u015fmak \u00fczere anla\u015ft\u0131lar. Toplant\u0131ya kat\u0131lacak \u00fclkeler: Kolombiya, Ekvator, Meksika ve Venezuela. Ekvator petrol bakan\u0131 Correa birlikte hareket etmek i\u00e7in ikna etmekte en \u00e7ok zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkenin Meksika oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Bu toplant\u0131 OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan Kolombiya ve Meksika\u2019n\u0131n Doha toplant\u0131s\u0131nda \u00fcretim dondurma teklifine olumlu yakla\u015facaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli.<\/p>\n

\u0130ran petrol bakan\u0131 Zanganeh devlet televizyonuna yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada Mart 2017\u2019ye kadar \u00fclkenin petrol \u00fcretiminin g\u00fcnde 4 milyon varile ula\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u015fu anki ihracat\u0131n g\u00fcnde 2,25 milyon varil oldu\u011funu tahmin ettiklerini de ekledi.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fck havayolu \u015firketleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131llara haz\u0131rl\u0131k olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck jet yak\u0131t\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 sabitlemek i\u00e7in son \u015fanslar\u0131 olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnerek piyasada dalgalanmalara neden oldular. Birka\u00e7 havayolu 2017,2018 hatta 2019 y\u0131llar\u0131 i\u00e7in hedge yapt\u0131lar. Yap\u0131lan hareketin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131ldan bu yana en b\u00fcy\u00fc\u011f\u00fc oldu\u011fu s\u00f6yleniyor. Piyasa uzmanlar\u0131 \u015firket isimlerini vermezken baz\u0131 havayollar\u0131n\u0131n yak\u0131t harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 %40\u2019a kadar hedge yapt\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.\u00a0 Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l hedge maliyetleri y\u00fcz\u00fcnden milyarlarca dolar kaybeden havayolu y\u00f6neticilerinin mevcut seviyelerden hedge e girmeleri fiyatlarda dip seviyenin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc alg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. Baz\u0131 havayolu yetkililerine g\u00f6re fiyatlar kendileri i\u00e7in en iyi seviyede olmasa bile iyi fiyatlar ve hedge stratejileri i\u00e7in makul.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc Goldman Sachs yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada OPEC \u00fcretiminin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda 0,6 milyon 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 0,5 milyon varil artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini bildirdi. Ayr\u0131ca banka 17 Nisan\u2019da yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131 sonucunda \u00fcretim dondurma plan\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda \u00fcmitli olmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131, bu nedenle daha \u00f6nce a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015f olduklar\u0131 tahminlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklik yapmayacaklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Goldman\u2019a g\u00f6re $ 35 seviyesi ne \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek ne de \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve tam olarak makul bir seviye.<\/p>\n

Amerika\u2019da sondaj firmalar\u0131 3. Hafta \u00fcst \u00fcste kuyu say\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek say\u0131y\u0131 Kas\u0131m 2009 seviyesine geriletmi\u015f oldular. Kapanan kuyu say\u0131s\u0131 8 olurken \u015fu anki kuyu say\u0131s\u0131 354\u2019e gerilemi\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
“Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir.<\/strong>\u00a0Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/h5>\n
\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/h5>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/em><\/strong><\/h6>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya 17 Nisan\u2019da Doha\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan \u00fcreticiler toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in azalan \u00fcmitler ve artan Amerikan stoklar\u0131 haberleriyle k\u00f6t\u00fcmser ba\u015flayan ham…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":63,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[101,204,106,117,108],"tags":[1056,187,221,191,222,192,223,210,211,193,224,212,232,225,103,197,198,199,226,213,227,214,215,228,201,229,203,230,116,216,134,231,205,217,206,119,120,207,110],"ppma_author":[2033],"class_list":["post-2858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-belge","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","tag-petrol-petrolfiyatlari","tag-abd","tag-amb","tag-arabistan","tag-avrupa","tag-baker-hughes","tag-boj","tag-borsa","tag-bp","tag-brent-petrol","tag-brexit","tag-dolar","tag-eia","tag-elektirk","tag-enerji","tag-fed","tag-gas","tag-hedge","tag-iea","tag-irak","tag-katar-arabistan","tag-kemal-aydin","tag-kriz","tag-kuveyt-urdun","tag-merkez-bankasi","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-petrol","tag-piyasa","tag-rusya","tag-sermaye","tag-seyl-petrolu","tag-shell","tag-suudi-arabistan","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-uea","tag-verimlilik"],"yoast_head":"\nPetrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (11 Nisan 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-piyasasinda-bu-hafta-11-nisan-2016\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Petrol Piyasas\u0131nda Bu Hafta (11 Nisan 2016) - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Kemal AYDIN: TESPAM Petrol Piyasas\u0131 Uzman\u0131 kemalaydin@tespam.org\/tr @kemalnyc24     Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz haftaya 17 Nisan\u2019da Doha\u2019da yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan \u00fcreticiler toplant\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in azalan \u00fcmitler ve artan Amerikan stoklar\u0131 haberleriyle 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