{"id":2869,"date":"2016-03-06T10:27:22","date_gmt":"2016-03-06T08:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2869"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:23","slug":"biraz-bilimsellik-lutfen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/biraz-bilimsellik-lutfen\/","title":{"rendered":"Biraz Bilimsellik L\u00fctfen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>okayener@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer alanlarda oldu\u011fu gibi, enerji alan\u0131nda da bilimsel analizler yapmaya, \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve geni\u015f perspektiften bakabilmeye, bunlar i\u00e7in de farkl\u0131 disiplinleri bir araya getirecek \u00e7ok disiplinli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ekipleri kurmaya ihtiya\u00e7 vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sosyal payla\u015f\u0131m platformlar\u0131nda, di\u011fer bas\u0131n unsurlar\u0131nda yer alan farkl\u0131 yorumlar ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar incelendi\u011finde, ne yaz\u0131k ki bilimsel tutars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ya da tek y\u00f6nl\u00fc analizi neticesinde kamuoyunu yanl\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nlendiren, konunun uzman\u0131 olmayan kesimleri inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 mahiyette olan, fakat uzmanlar nezdinde de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda yetersiz ve eksik de\u011ferlendirmeler i\u00e7ermesi nedeniyle dikkate al\u0131nmayan ifadelere rastlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<p>Bu noktada \u00f6rnek te\u015fkil edecek, sadece petrol ve do\u011falgaz piyasalar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda baz\u0131 pop\u00fcler ifadelere, k\u0131sa ele\u015ftiriler ile yer vermek gerekirse:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Rusya\u2019s\u0131z T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fans\u0131 yoktur!<\/strong> <em>(Bunun ile ilgili bir analiz yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Dayana\u011f\u0131 nedir? Arz talep dengeleri \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131p, uzun d\u00f6nemli projeksiyonlar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Farkl\u0131 arz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik ve teknik olarak temini \u00fczerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? T\u00fcm bunlar e\u011fer yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ise, nas\u0131l b\u00f6yle bir yorum yapmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>TANAP erken tamamlanacak ve bu sayede T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi hususunda \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lacak. <\/strong><em>(TANAP erken tamamlansa bile bu TANAP\u2019a gaz sa\u011flayacak \u015eah Denizi Gaz Sahas\u0131n\u0131n ikinci faz\u0131n\u0131n erken tamamlanmas\u0131na etki edecek midir? Gaz erken \u00fcretilmedikten sonra boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n erken bitirilmesi ne anlam ifade edecektir?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelecek ve oradan Avrupa\u2019ya gidecek. Trans-Hazar boru hatt\u0131 yap\u0131lacak. <\/strong><em>(T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131n\u0131n birim maliyeti nedir? Rezervuar \u00f6zellikleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan riskler var m\u0131d\u0131r? Bu gaz hangi g\u00fczergahlardan gelebilir? Hazar Denizinin stat\u00fc problemi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclecek midir? Gaz Avrupa\u2019ya ekonomik olarak gidebilir mi? Tarifeler \u2013 market fiyatlar\u0131 ne olabilir?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0130srail gaz\u0131 yak\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelecek.<\/strong> <em>(Ne kadar yak\u0131nda gelebilir? \u0130srail\u2019in hangi y\u0131llarda gaz ihra\u00e7 potansiyeli ne olacakt\u0131r? Gaz\u0131, daha az maliyetler ile satabilecek ba\u015fka pazarlar yok mudur? Ortada somut manada bir anla\u015fma, geli\u015ftirilmi\u015f saha, boru hatt\u0131 yada ilgili y\u00fczey tesisi var m\u0131d\u0131r?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Kuzey Irak gaz\u0131 yak\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelecek.<\/strong> <em>(Ne kadar yak\u0131nda gelebilir? Kuzey Irak\u2019\u0131n hangi y\u0131llarda gaz ihra\u00e7 potansiyeli ne olacakt\u0131r? Buna zaten gaz talebini kar\u015f\u0131layamayan ve bu sebeple \u0130ran\u2019dan gaz alan Irak merkezi h\u00fck\u00fcmeti izin verecek midir? Kuzey Irak\u2019ta da zaten gaz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015fanmamakta m\u0131d\u0131r? Ortada anla\u015fma, geli\u015ftirilmi\u015f saha, boru hatt\u0131 yada ilgili y\u00fczey tesisi var m\u0131d\u0131r? Siyasi olarak Kuzey Irak y\u00f6netimi ne durumdad\u0131r? Kuzey Irak\u2019taki petrol \u015firketlerinin durumlar\u0131 nedir? Bu tarz s\u00f6ylemlerin ilgili \u015firketlerin d\u00fc\u015fen borsa de\u011ferlerini y\u00fckseltmesi amac\u0131 ile ortaya at\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olma ihtimali yada siyasi nedenleri olma ihtimali yok mudur?<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u0130ran\u2019dan Avrupa\u2019ya gaz T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7erek gidecek.<\/strong> <em>(\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n ihra\u00e7 potansiyeli hangi y\u0131llarda ne olacakt\u0131r? \u0130ran gaz\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa\u2019ya T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lacak bir boru hatt\u0131 ile nakil etmek ekonomik olacak m\u0131d\u0131r? \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetler ile eri\u015febilece\u011fi ba\u015fka pazarlar bulma \u015fans\u0131 yok mudur? Zaten bu noktada mervut giri\u015fimler anla\u015fmalar vb. aksiyonlar al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil midir?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00fcrkiye bir enerji merkezi oldu. (yada oluyor)<\/strong> <em>(Enerji merkezi ne demektir? D\u00fcnya daki enerji merkezleri hangileridir? Onlar ile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131r ise aradaki farklar nelerdir? Enerji transit merkezi nedir? Gaz transit merkezi nedir? T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in hangi terimi kullanmak daha do\u011fru ve turtarl\u0131d\u0131r?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u015eu kadar (\u2026..) ankonvansiyonel kayna\u011f\u0131m\u0131z var.<\/strong> <em>(Ger\u00e7ekten ifade edilen kaynak tespiti ile ilgili yeterince sismik \u2013 sondaj \u2013 test ve anliz yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Bizde petrol var fakat Lozan sebebi ile \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lm\u0131yor. 2023\u2019ten sonra \u00e7\u0131kart\u0131lacak. <\/strong><em>(Lozan hi\u00e7 incelenmi\u015f midir? Petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde i\u015flerin nas\u0131l y\u00fcr\u00fcd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bilinmekte midir?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de petrol yok.<\/strong> <em>(Sismik \u2013 jeolojik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ve analizler \u2013 sondaj vb. a\u00e7\u0131lardan acaba T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin t\u00fcm potansiyel alanlar\u0131 aranm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Yap\u0131lan analizler ve aramac\u0131l\u0131k \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 ve kesin do\u011fru varsay\u0131labilir mi? Farkl\u0131 jeolojik ve sismik yorumlar\u0131n t\u00fcm senaryolar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirme ihtimali olamaz m\u0131?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>(\u2026..) kadar petrol (yada gaz) bulundu. Art\u0131k Rusya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcns\u00fcn.<\/strong> <em>(Bulunan kaynak nedir? Rezerv tespiti yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Ekonomik modeli haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r? Rezerv: yani ekonomik olarak \u00fcretilebilecek k\u0131s\u0131m, ne kadar do\u011fru hesaplanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r? Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcretimi ve rezervi nedir? Rusya nas\u0131l etkilenebilir ki? \u00c7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kaynak bulunsa dahi bu mevcut anla\u015fmalar var iken Rusya\u2019y\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye pazar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nas\u0131l etkileyebilir? Uzun d\u00f6nemli projeksiyonlarda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n gaz\u0131n\u0131 ula\u015ft\u0131rabilice\u011fi ba\u015fka piyasalar yok mudur?)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki maddelerden ve maddelerin tutars\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 cevaplar\u0131 ile g\u00f6sterecek sorulardan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, yap\u0131lan \u00e7ok kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcml\u00fc pop\u00fcler yorum ve a\u00e7\u0131klamalar bilimsel yakla\u015f\u0131mdan uzak ifadelerdir. B\u00f6yle \u00f6nemli ve geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmesi gereken konular\u0131n kaynak potansiyellerinin, rezervuar \u00f6zelliklerinin, teknoloji-yat\u0131r\u0131m-ekipman yeterliliklerinin, saha geli\u015ftirme faaliyetlerinin, anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n, \u00fcretim ve iletim tesislerinin, market durumlar\u0131n\u0131n, piyasa fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ve proje ekonomilerinin g\u00fcncel siyasi risk ve trendler de dikkate al\u0131narak \u00e7ok disiplinli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ekiplerince irdelenmesi ve bilimsel olarak tutarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 sadece ulusal bazda de\u011fil, uluslararas\u0131 arenada da kabul g\u00f6recek \u015fekilde yorumlanmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Yoksa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de kamuoyunu oyalay\u0131c\u0131 bu tarz s\u00f6ylemler g\u00fcndemi oyalamaya devam ederken, konuya hakim olan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki bas\u0131n\u0131 d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan takip eden uluslararas\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar s\u00f6ylemlerimizi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsemeye, okumay\u0131 ve farkl\u0131 kaynaklardan ara\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 \u00e7o\u011funlukla sevmeyen ve komplo teorilerine ilgil duyan toplumumuz (hatta toplumun bilin\u00e7li say\u0131labilecek kesimi akademisyen ve b\u00fcrokratlar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n da \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131) uluslararas\u0131 arenada ses getirecek \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar \u00fcretemiyor olu\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat b\u00fcy\u00fck hedefleri olan, b\u00f6lgesinde ve uluslararas\u0131 arenada etkin olmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan yeni T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin her alanda oldu\u011fu gibi enerji alan\u0131nda da k\u00fcresel bazda ses getirecek bilimsel ve tutarl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar \u00fcretmeye ve \u00f6nden gidenlerden olmaya ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Zaten TESPAM da bu ihtiya\u00e7lara cevap vermek i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>&#8220;Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM&#8217;a aittir. <\/strong><strong>Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.&#8221;<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2441 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/logo.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"125\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n<h6><em><strong>TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 okayener@tespam.org\/tr Di\u011fer alanlarda oldu\u011fu gibi, enerji alan\u0131nda da bilimsel analizler yapmaya, \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve geni\u015f perspektiften bakabilmeye, bunlar i\u00e7in de farkl\u0131 disiplinleri\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":2870,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[101,106,117,108,109],"tags":[235,103,1191,128,114,115,116,134,137,118,119,120,236,237],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-2869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-belge","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","category-turkiye","tag-bilmsellik","tag-enerji","tag-enerji-merkezi","tag-israil-gazi","tag-oguzhan-akyener","tag-osmanli","tag-petrol","tag-rusya","tag-tanap","tag-tebam","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-turkiyede-petrol","tag-turkmen-gazi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Biraz Bilimsellik L\u00fctfen - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/biraz-bilimsellik-lutfen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Biraz Bilimsellik L\u00fctfen - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 okayener@tespam.org\/tr Di\u011fer alanlarda oldu\u011fu gibi, enerji alan\u0131nda da bilimsel analizler yapmaya, \u00e7ok y\u00f6nl\u00fc ve geni\u015f perspektiften bakabilmeye, 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