{"id":2904,"date":"2016-05-11T10:27:22","date_gmt":"2016-05-11T07:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=2904"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:22","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:22","slug":"guney-akimi-gaz-boru-hatti-geri-donerse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/guney-akimi-gaz-boru-hatti-geri-donerse\/","title":{"rendered":"G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131 Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Geri D\u00f6nerse"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #000080;\">oakyener@tespam.org\/tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<p>Nisan ay\u0131 sonunda Gazprom yetkilileri taraf\u0131ndan, vazge\u00e7ilen G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131 Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi hakk\u0131nda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar olduk\u00e7a dikkat \u00e7ekti. Bu kapsamda daha \u00f6nce Anapa\u2019dan ba\u015flamas\u0131 planlanan boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n, K\u0131r\u0131m k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na \u00e7ekilmesi sayesinde maliyetinin d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi ve proje ekonomisinin bundan olumlu etkilenece\u011fi vurgusu yap\u0131ld\u0131. Bunun da yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ilgili boru hatt\u0131 ile ta\u015f\u0131nacak gaz\u0131n orta Avrupa gaz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 beslemek yerine \u0130talya piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 beslemesinin de daha tutarl\u0131 olabilece\u011finden bahsedildi.<\/p>\n<p>Bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00fczerine \u00f6ncelikle dikkat edilmesi gereken husus; Rusya\u2019n\u0131n zaman\u0131nda G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131\u2019ndan vazge\u00e7erek T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 Boru hatt\u0131na y\u00f6nelmesindeki as\u0131l sebep olan AB\u2019nin 3. Enerji Paketi\u2019nin getirdi\u011fi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlard\u0131r. Bu yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u015famamas\u0131 ve AB\u2019den gelen siyasi bask\u0131lara Bulgaristan\u2019\u0131n daha fazla direnememesi sebebi ile karar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitmesi gibi sebeplerin neticesinde Rusya bu se\u00e7enekten vazge\u00e7mi\u015fti. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, bu se\u00e7enek yerine farkl\u0131 bir gaz ihra\u00e7 tarz\u0131n\u0131 uygulamaya ge\u00e7irece\u011fini de planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve hemen hemen ayn\u0131 maliyetlere haiz olan T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 Boru hatt\u0131n\u0131 tercih etmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan siyasi problemler sebebi ile de yeni yap\u0131lan bu tercih ask\u0131ya al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Aradan bir s\u00fcre ge\u00e7mi\u015fti ki yukar\u0131da bahsedilen a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Peki bu a\u00e7\u0131klama \u00f6ncesinde neler de\u011fi\u015fti?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>AB\u2019nin Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 tutumu de\u011fi\u015fti yada yumu\u015fad\u0131 m\u0131? Hay\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>ABD\u2019nin bu konuda tavr\u0131nda bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik oldu mu? Hay\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Bulgaristan kendisi i\u00e7in stratejik \u00f6neme sahip olacak b\u00f6ylesi bir projenin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinde deste\u011fini geri \u00e7ekmesinin ne kadar yanl\u0131\u015f oldu\u011funu anlayarak, T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilan\u0131ndan sonra geri ad\u0131m att\u0131 m\u0131? Evet<\/li>\n<li>AB\u2019nin monopoliye izin vermeyen 3. Enerji Paketi\u2019nde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik oldu mu? Hay\u0131r<\/li>\n<li>Rusya \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye ili\u015fkileri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir s\u00fcrece girdi mi? Evet<\/li>\n<li>AB \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda siyasi gerilimler ya\u015fanma ihtimali son geli\u015fmeler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda s\u00f6z konusu mu? Evet<\/li>\n<li>Orta Avrupa yerine gaz\u0131n \u0130talya borsas\u0131na naklini \u0130talya destekler mi? Evet<\/li>\n<li>Rus gaz\u0131 Orta Avrupa yerine \u0130talya\u2019ya da hemen hemen ayn\u0131 maliyetler ile ula\u015fabilir mi? Evet<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yani bu sorular irdelendi\u011finde neler ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Enerji Paketi de\u011fi\u015fmeyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc ile Rusya gaz\u0131n\u0131 Bulgaristan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131nda \u0130talya\u2019daki m\u00fc\u015fterilerine satacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bulgaristan \u2013 Yunanistan aras\u0131nda (k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgi ile haritada g\u00f6sterildi\u011fi gibi) yeni bir boru hatt\u0131 yap\u0131lacak ve IGI Poseidon ve IGI onshore boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n da tekrar hayata ge\u00e7mesi g\u00fcndeme gelecektir (Bknz. Harita1). Yani Avrupa i\u00e7indeki boru hatlar\u0131 Rusya\u2019ya ait olan G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131\u2019n\u0131n devam\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Gaz\u0131n ka\u00e7 fazda hangi hacimlerde nakil edilece\u011fi yap\u0131lan anla\u015fmalar, k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar, ekonomik modeller ile belirlenecektir. Fakat G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk faz\u0131 olan 16 milyar m3\/y\u0131l\u2019l\u0131k hacmin 4 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n Yunanistan ve Bulgaristan\u2019a verilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr ise kalan 12 milyar m3\/y\u0131l\u2019l\u0131k hacim ise IGI Boru Hatt\u0131\u2019n\u0131n planlanan kapasitesi dahilinde \u0130talya\u2019ya g\u00f6nderilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Sonraki fazlar i\u00e7in ayr\u0131 talep \u2013 maliyet \u2013 market analizleri yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekir.<\/li>\n<li>Sonu\u00e7 olarak bu \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda b\u00f6yle bir senaryo uygulanabilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-2905 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/04\/g\u00fcney-ak\u0131m\u0131-d\u00f6nerse.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"645\" height=\"371\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Harita1: IGI Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi (Kaynak: http:\/\/www.edison.it\/en\/itgi-pipeline)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Peki bu durumda \u00fclkemizi ilgilendiren ba\u015fl\u0131ca hususlar ne olacakt\u0131r?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 Boru Hatt\u0131\u2019na geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ihtimali kalmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bu durum \u00fclkemizin bir gaz transit merkezi olmas\u0131 hedefini olumsuz etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>\u00dclkemizin gaz transit merkezi olmas\u0131 hedefini do\u011frultusundaki en somut ad\u0131m olan, Azerbaycan \u015eah Denizi Projesi\u2019nin 2. Faz\u0131ndan \u00fcretilecek ve TANAP \u2013 TAP boru hatlar\u0131 ile \u0130talya borsas\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131nacak olan 10 milyar m3\/y\u0131l\u2019l\u0131k gaz\u0131n ekonomik olarak \u0130talya borsas\u0131nda rekabet edebilmesi zorla\u015facakt\u0131r. (\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fcretim ve nakil maliyetleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha ucuza sat\u0131lma potansiyeli olan ve ileriki fazlarda kapasitesinin artma ihtimali de olan gaz\u0131 sayesinde Rusya \u0130talya piyasas\u0131ndaki en avantajl\u0131 tedarik\u00e7i olma konumunu koruyacakt\u0131r.)<\/li>\n<li>Rekabet riski t\u00fcm \u015eah Denizi \u2013 TANAP ve TAP projelerini de riske sokacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Resmin bu a\u00e7\u0131dan da de\u011ferlendirilmesi ve yap\u0131lacak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler ile alternatif planlar geli\u015ftirilmesi \u00fclkemiz enerji politikalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan elzemdir. Gazprom\u2019dan bir yetkili taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan s\u00f6ylem belki de planlanm\u0131\u015f ve \u00fczerine somut ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lan bir alternatif de\u011fildir. Fakat yine de b\u00fcy\u00fck oynamak isteyen \u00fclkemiz yetkilileri taraf\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu gibi analizlerin i\u00e7i bo\u015f siyasi s\u00f6ylemlerden ziyade, market \u2013 kaynak \u2013 nakliyat \u2013 maliyet \u2013 siyaset gibi kriterlerin de hep birlikte de\u011ferlendirilerek yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereklidir.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131 \u2013 T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131n, ekonomik modellerin, farkl\u0131 alternatiflerin, Avrupa ilgili piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n hedeflerinin daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in TESPAM Energy Policy Turkey Dergisi\u2019ndeki \u201cRUSSIAN CHESS ON GAS POLITICS: EVALUATION OF TURKISH STREAM\u201d isimli makalenin de okunmas\u0131 faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130lgili makale linki:\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.energypolicyturkey.com\/russian-chess-on-gas-politics\/\">http:\/\/www.energypolicyturkey.com\/russian-chess-on-gas-politics\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>&#8220;Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM&#8217;a aittir. <\/strong><strong>Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.&#8221;<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2441 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/logo.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"125\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n<h6><em><strong>TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER\u00a0 TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oakyener@tespam.org\/tr Nisan ay\u0131 sonunda Gazprom yetkilileri taraf\u0131ndan, vazge\u00e7ilen G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131 Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi hakk\u0131nda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar olduk\u00e7a dikkat \u00e7ekti. Bu kapsamda\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":2906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[258,106,131,117,135,108,109],"tags":[249,124,196,248,259,1202,260,114,257,238,120,247],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-2904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-avrupa","category-kose-yazilari","category-orta-dogu","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-rusya","category-tr","category-turkiye","tag-dunya-enerji-gorunumu","tag-enerji-denklemi","tag-enerji-politkalari","tag-enerji-veri-bankasi","tag-gaz-boru-hatti","tag-gaz-transit-merkezi","tag-guney-akimi","tag-oguzhan-akyener","tag-petrol-devri","tag-sivil-toplum","tag-turkiye","tag-turkiye-jeolojisi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131 Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Geri D\u00f6nerse - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/guney-akimi-gaz-boru-hatti-geri-donerse\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131 Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Geri D\u00f6nerse - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O\u011fuzhan AKYENER\u00a0 TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oakyener@tespam.org\/tr Nisan ay\u0131 sonunda Gazprom yetkilileri taraf\u0131ndan, vazge\u00e7ilen G\u00fcney Ak\u0131m\u0131 Gaz Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi hakk\u0131nda yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar olduk\u00e7a dikkat \u00e7ekti. 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