{"id":3796,"date":"2016-12-14T14:27:22","date_gmt":"2016-12-14T12:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=3796"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:19","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:19","slug":"israil-gazi-sadece-algi-operasyonu-peki-hakikat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/israil-gazi-sadece-algi-operasyonu-peki-hakikat\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130srail Gaz\u0131: Sadece Alg\u0131 Operasyonu, Peki Hakikat?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\u00a0O\u011fuzhan AKYENER<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n
oakyener@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n

\u0130srail Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 genel direkt\u00f6r\u00fc olan Meridor:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Leviathan sahas\u0131n\u0131n 2019 sonunda \u00fcretime al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131ndan,<\/li>\n
  • Bu gaz\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u0131l sonunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelebilece\u011fi ve oradan nakil edilebilece\u011finden,<\/li>\n
  • K\u0131br\u0131s \u00fczerinden bir boru hatt\u0131 \u00e7ekilebilece\u011finden,<\/li>\n
  • Bu konuda (tan\u0131mad\u0131klar\u0131 KKTC\u2019nin vatanda\u015flar\u0131 olan) K\u0131br\u0131sl\u0131 T\u00fcrkler ile de g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015febileceklerinden,<\/li>\n
  • \u0130srail\u2019in Leviathan ve Tamar sahalar\u0131nda 950 milyar m3 civar\u0131nda gaz buldu\u011fundan,<\/li>\n
  • Bu miktar\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u0131ll\u0131k ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n 19 kat\u0131 oldu\u011fundan,<\/li>\n
  • Enerji konusundaki geli\u015fmelerin, siyasi geli\u015fmelerin ve olumsuzluklar\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tutulaca\u011f\u0131ndan,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    bahsetmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

    B\u00f6ylesi \u00f6nemli bir konu i\u00e7in, s\u00fcrekli paneller, s\u00f6yle\u015filer, bas\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 ve toplant\u0131lar yap\u0131labilirken; acaba ni\u00e7in bu konuya teknik a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131k getirebilen s\u00f6ylemler pek dillendirilememektedir?<\/p>\n

    Bu soruya cevap vermeyi bir kenara b\u0131rakarak, Meridor\u2019un s\u00f6ylemlerini de\u011ferlendirecek olursak:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Leviathan sahas\u0131 2019 sonunda \u00fcretime al\u0131nacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
    • Fakat \u00fcretilecek gaz\u0131n 2020\u2019de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye nakli m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc;\n
        \n
      • Kaynak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde:\n
          \n
        • \u00dcretime al\u0131nan bir saha teknik olarak, hemen maksimum \u00fcretim seviyelerine eri\u015femeyecektir. Maksimum seviyeye ad\u0131m ad\u0131m, birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ula\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
        • \u00dcretilen gaz ise \u00f6ncelikle; \u00dcrd\u00fcn ve baz\u0131 elektrik \u00fcreticisi firmalar ile zaten yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan anla\u015fmalar gere\u011fi sat\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
        • Geriye kalan miktar ise \u00f6ncelikle artan i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in de\u011ferlendirilecektir.<\/li>\n
        • Bunun da sonras\u0131nda ancak geriye kalan: ortalama d\u00fczenli olarak (2020-2040 aras\u0131nda) y\u0131ll\u0131k 2,5 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ihra\u00e7 edilmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
        • Bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi ancak \u015fu beklenmedik olaylar de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecektir:\n
            \n
          • \u0130srail yeni gaz kaynaklar\u0131 ke\u015ffeder ve bunlar\u0131 geli\u015ftirir. Bu da \u201cdo\u011fmam\u0131\u015f \u00e7ocu\u011fa don bi\u00e7mek\u201d tabirinden dahi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir beklentidir. Bununla birlikte ke\u015ffedilen bir gaz sahas\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilerek \u00fcretime al\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in en az 5 y\u0131la ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
          • \u0130srail, \u00fcretimini i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimde kullanmak yerine, \u00fcretiminin kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye satar ve kendisine M\u0131s\u0131r yada G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n var oldu\u011fu iddia edilen gaz kaynaklar\u0131ndan tedarik sa\u011flar. Bu se\u00e7enek en ekonomik tercih olmamakla birlikte, yap\u0131lacak anla\u015fmalar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, stratejik olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilecektir. Sonu\u00e7ta G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n, var oldu\u011fu iddia edilen kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 ekonomik ve siyasi olarak geli\u015ftirmesi ve ihra\u00e7 etmesi i\u00e7in tek yol \u0130srail (en ekonomik ve uygulanabilir) olarak g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir. (M\u0131s\u0131r se\u00e7ene\u011fi dahi de\u011ferlendirilse, bunu da \u0130srail ile birlikte yapmak daha ekonomik olacakt\u0131r.) Bu avantaj\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak \u0130srail, ilgili gaz ticaretini \u00e7ok uygun ko\u015fullarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmeyi deneyebilecektir. \u0130srail\u2019in zaten bu konuda da alg\u0131 operasyonu y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcyor oldu\u011fu tahmin edilmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
          • Ortada b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda ihracat kapasitesi olarak de\u011ferlendirilebilecek kaynak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, di\u011fer maddelerin incelenmesine zaten gerek yoktur. Lakin yine de, en az\u0131ndan 2,5 milyar m3\/y\u0131ll\u0131k bir gaz hacminden yola \u00e7\u0131karak baz\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar yap\u0131l\u0131rsa:\n
              \n
            • 2,5 milyar m\/y\u0131l hacminde bir gaz i\u00e7in, siyasi \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc olan bir K\u0131br\u0131s rotas\u0131n\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7mesi zor g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n
            • 2,5 milyar m\/y\u0131l hacmindeki gaz T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck anlam ifade etmemektedir.<\/li>\n
            • Bu gaz i\u00e7in bir boru hatt\u0131 in\u015fa etmek yerine, gaz\u0131 mevcut boru hatlar\u0131 ile M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019dan LNG olarak satmak (bo\u015f kapasite bulunabilir ise) yada kurulacak daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir LNG tesisi ile uluslararas\u0131 piyasalara nakil etmek, en az\u0131ndan siyasi a\u00e7\u0131lardan daha uygulanabilir g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir.<\/li>\n
            • Yine de gaz K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019a getirilir, G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n varsay\u0131lan gaz sahas\u0131 da geli\u015ftirilir, siyasi anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcl\u00fcr ve buradan yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck (2,5 \u0130srail + 7,5 G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s) bir hacim T\u00fcrkiye ve oradan da AB\u2019ye nakil edilmek istenmekte ise; bu konu ekonomik olsa da, siyasi olarak \u00e7ok zor g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye, K\u0131br\u0131s T\u00fcrklerine yap\u0131lan katliamlar\u0131 unutmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r ve kendi d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131 bile bile ihya etmeye yana\u015fmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n
            • Demek ki, geriye kalan en tutarl\u0131 se\u00e7enek, zaten Afrodit sahas\u0131na yak\u0131n olan Leviathan ve Tamar sahalar\u0131ndan elde edilecek fazla ihra\u00e7 kapasitesini, Afrodit sahas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretimi ile birle\u015ftirerek, K\u0131br\u0131s yada \u0130srail\u2019e nakil etmek ve orada kurulacak bir LNG tesisi ile ihra\u00e7 etmektir. Bu noktada da \u0130srail\u2019in \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nce \u00fcretime ald\u0131\u011f\u0131\/alaca\u011f\u0131 Leviathan ve Tamar sahalar\u0131ndan kendi kara alanlar\u0131na (mevcut gaz sat\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmalar\u0131na bak\u0131larak) nakil hatlar\u0131 \u00e7ekmesi gerekti\u011fi yani, bu tesisin ekonomik (ve stratejik) olarak \u0130srail\u2019de kurulaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131r ise, \u0130srail\u2019in G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s ve Yunanistan\u2019\u0131 da oyalad\u0131\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n
            • Yani K\u0131br\u0131s \u00fczerinden de bir boru hatt\u0131 ge\u00e7ecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/li>\n
            • K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019a bir LNG terminali yap\u0131lacak gibi de g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir. G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s var oldu\u011funu iddia etti\u011fi kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirebilir ise, \u00fcretimini sahas\u0131na yak\u0131n olan Leviathan sahas\u0131n\u0131n tesislerine ba\u011flayarak, \u0130srail\u2019de kurulabilecek bir LNG tesisine nakledece\u011fi daha uygulanabilirdir. Bu se\u00e7ene\u011fin de yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, illa ki K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019ta bir LNG tesisi kurulacak ise, \u0130srail fazla gaz ihra\u00e7 kapasitesini, t\u00fcm finans y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc Yunanistan ve G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019a b\u0131rakarak, ilgili tesislere de nakil edebilecektir. Fakat bu senaryonun finansal ve ekonomik olarak uygunlu\u011funda b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015f\u00fcpheler bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
            • K\u0131br\u0131sl\u0131 T\u00fcrkler ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fclmesi i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle onlar\u0131n resmi devletlerinin tan\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/li>\n
            • Leviathan ve Tamar sahalar\u0131ndaki rezervler, bir anda de\u011fil, 20 ila 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00fcretilece\u011fi i\u00e7in, ilgili rezervlerin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gaz t\u00fcketimi ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 tamamen mant\u0131ks\u0131z bir k\u0131yaslamad\u0131r.<\/li>\n
            • Enerji konular\u0131 nas\u0131l siyasi g\u00fcndemi etkiliyor ise, siyasi g\u00fcndem de enerji konular\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecektir. Bu durum sadece, uluslararas\u0131 anla\u015fmalar ile karara ba\u011flanm\u0131\u015f ve devam eden ticari anla\u015fmalar i\u00e7in farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterebilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

              Sonu\u00e7 olarak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u0130srail ve K\u0131br\u0131s politikalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde ciddi alg\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131 oynanmaya devam etmektedir. Zor imtihanlardan ge\u00e7en ve sonunda b\u00fct\u00fcn oyunlardan galip olarak \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z T\u00fcrkiye, bu alanda da hakikatin fark\u0131nda olarak \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 sonuna kadar savunmay\u0131 bilecektir.<\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n

               <\/p>\n

              “Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM’a aittir. <\/strong>Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.”<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n

              \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

              \u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n

              \"\"<\/p>\n

              TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n

              TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

              \u00a0O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oakyener@tespam.org\/tr \u0130srail Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 genel direkt\u00f6r\u00fc olan Meridor: Leviathan sahas\u0131n\u0131n 2019 sonunda \u00fcretime al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131ndan, Bu gaz\u0131n ayn\u0131 y\u0131l sonunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye gelebilece\u011fi ve oradan nakil edilebilece\u011finden, K\u0131br\u0131s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":3797,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[122,106,117,108,109],"tags":[259,260,339,128,298,369,370,114,238,120,330,251],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-3796","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dogu-akdeniz","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","category-turkiye","tag-gaz-boru-hatti","tag-guney-akimi","tag-guney-kibris","tag-israil-gazi","tag-kibris-lng","tag-kuzey-kibris","tag-leviathan-sahasi","tag-oguzhan-akyener","tag-sivil-toplum","tag-turkiye","tag-turkiye-rusya","tag-yenilebilir-enerji"],"yoast_head":"\n\u0130srail Gaz\u0131: Sadece Alg\u0131 Operasyonu, Peki Hakikat? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/israil-gazi-sadece-algi-operasyonu-peki-hakikat\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0130srail Gaz\u0131: Sadece Alg\u0131 Operasyonu, Peki Hakikat? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00a0O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oakyener@tespam.org\/tr \u0130srail Enerji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 genel direkt\u00f6r\u00fc olan Meridor: Leviathan sahas\u0131n\u0131n 2019 sonunda \u00fcretime al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131ndan, Bu gaz\u0131n 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