{"id":3861,"date":"2016-11-14T09:27:22","date_gmt":"2016-11-14T07:27:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=3861"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:20","slug":"trump-ile-enerjide-degisen-dengeler-petrol-kartelleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/trump-ile-enerjide-degisen-dengeler-petrol-kartelleri\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump \u0130le Enerjide De\u011fi\u015fen Dengeler &amp; Petrol Kartelleri"},"content":{"rendered":"<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\"><strong>oakyener@tespam.org\/tr<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><em>\u201cLibya\u2019ya petrol de\u011fil, vicdan g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131n!\u201d<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><em>Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, 2011<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Bir\u00e7ok uzman\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminlerin aksine, b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol kartellerinin de deste\u011fini alan Trump yeni ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ildi. Bu se\u00e7im asl\u0131nda sadece ABD\u2019de de\u011fil, Avrupa ve d\u00fcnya genelinde e\u015f zamanl\u0131 ya\u015fanan farkl\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimlerin ABD\u2019deki yans\u0131mas\u0131 gibiydi. Di\u011fer bir ifade ile d\u00fcnyada zaten \u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fimin e\u015fi\u011findeydi. (Brexit bunun g\u00f6stergelerinden bir tanesiydi.) ABD\u2019nin de bu s\u00fcrece uygun bir ba\u015fkana ihtiyac\u0131 bulunmaktayd\u0131. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile ABD de de\u011fi\u015fimi tercih etti. ABD\u2019den sonra da (\u00f6zellikle bir\u00e7ok Avrupa \u00fclkesinin y\u00f6netiminde; Fransa ve Almanya gibi) d\u00fcnya genelinde muhtelif de\u011fi\u015fimler s\u0131ras\u0131 ile beklenebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Se\u00e7im sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131, ABD\u2019nin Obama d\u00f6neminde el uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 eski d\u00fc\u015fmanlar\u0131 ile birlikte, \u00f6zellikle AB\u2019nin \u00f6nemli \u00fcyelerinden olan bir\u00e7ok devletin lideri endi\u015fe ile takip etti. Lakin, uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyuna yans\u0131yan bu endi\u015fe hali, k\u00fcresel politikalarda \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimlerin g\u00f6stergesi olarak alg\u0131lanabilece\u011fi gibi, beklenen alg\u0131lar\u0131n tutars\u0131z komplo teorilerine kaynak olu\u015fturma seviyesinde olmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011finin idraki de \u00f6nemliydi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD y\u00f6netiminde her ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol kartelleri gibi farkl\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 odaklar\u0131n\u0131n etkisi bilinse de, ABD tutars\u0131z maceralara kolay s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmeyecek sistemati\u011fe sahip bir devlettir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki, ABD\u2019deki bu de\u011fi\u015fim, k\u00fcresel politikalar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyecektir? Malum, yukar\u0131da bahsedildi\u011fi \u00fczere, petrol kartellerinin Trump\u2019u destekledi\u011fi, anla\u015f\u0131labilir basit bir g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu noktada Trump ya da dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131n\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 enerji politikalar\u0131, genel olarak iki yolla etkilenecektir. Birincisi; ABD\u2019nin kendi i\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik att\u0131\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar\u0131n neticesinde etkiler g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. \u0130kincisi ise ABD\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 politik giri\u015fimlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fimler neticesinde, enerji ile ilgili baz\u0131 dengeler de\u011fi\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu kapsamda ortaya koyulabilecek baz\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar maddeler halinde sayarsak:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ABD ulusal enerji politikalar\u0131nda beklenen de\u011fi\u015fimler ve uluslararas\u0131 etkileri:\n<ul>\n<li>ABD\u2019nin yerli enerji kaynaklar\u0131 geli\u015ftirilecek. \u0130thalat en aza indirilecek. Bu kapsamda:\n<ul>\n<li>\u00c7evre kirlili\u011finin \u00f6nlenmesi ve temiz enerji gibi hususlar ikinci plana at\u0131lacak.<\/li>\n<li>K\u00f6m\u00fcr kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi ile ilgili yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kald\u0131r\u0131lacak ve destekler getirilecek.<\/li>\n<li>Petrol ve gaz aramac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan\u0131ndaki k\u0131s\u0131tlama ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar kald\u0131r\u0131larak, te\u015fvik edici yeni d\u00fczenlemeler getirilecek.<\/li>\n<li>Ankonvansiyonel kaynak \u00fcretiminin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 sa\u011flanacak.<\/li>\n<li>N\u00fckleer santrallere destek verilecek.<\/li>\n<li>G\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczgar gibi verimlili\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f zaman\u0131 uzun olan teknolojilere y\u00f6nelim ve destek azalacak.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>ABD uluslararas\u0131 politikalar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin neticesinde olas\u0131 etkiler:\n<ul>\n<li>Uluslararas\u0131 politikalar belirlenirken, at\u0131lan ad\u0131m ve giri\u015fimlerin ticari getirileri \u00f6n planda tutulacak.<\/li>\n<li>Rusya ile ili\u015fkiler mevcut duruma nazaran, iyile\u015ftirilecek.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran ile yap\u0131lan anla\u015fma tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilip d\u00fczenlenecek. (ya da iptal edilecek.)<\/li>\n<li>Avrupal\u0131 \u00fclkeler ile iyi ve yak\u0131n ili\u015fkiler s\u00fcrecek. Lakin baz\u0131 hususlar\u0131n tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilecek.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>K\u00fcresel enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen yukar\u0131daki ifadeler, etkileri ve uygulanabilirlikleri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131saca de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ABD\u2019nin k\u00f6m\u00fcr, ankonvansiyonel, petrol ve gaz, deniz aramac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi alanlarda hamleler yapmas\u0131 beklenilen ve uygulanabilir bir ad\u0131md\u0131r. Do\u011fal olarak fosil kaynaklara y\u00f6nelen ve bu alanda te\u015fvikler yapan bir y\u00f6netimin, \u00e7evreci yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 ve temiz enerji alanlar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fimleri ikinci plana ataca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r ki, yeni y\u00f6netimin arkas\u0131nda petrol kartelleri bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>K\u00f6m\u00fcr a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda;\n<ul>\n<li>\u00dcretim ve t\u00fcketimi hemen hemen birbirine e\u015fit oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in, bu durum uluslararas\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok etkilemeyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Yerli k\u00f6m\u00fcr kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr \u00e7evrim santrallerinin te\u015fviki ile, k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretim miktar\u0131n\u0131n artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bu se\u00e7eneklerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra te\u015fvik ile \u00fcretilecek arz fazlas\u0131 k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn ihracat\u0131 da m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Yine de, \u00e7ok dikkat \u00e7ekmesine kar\u015f\u0131n, k\u00f6m\u00fcr uluslar aras\u0131 enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecek en zay\u0131f unsurlardan bir tanesidir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Petrol ve do\u011fal gaz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:\n<ul>\n<li>ABD d\u00fcnyadaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131d\u0131r. Bununla birlikte en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcreticilerden de bir tanesidir. \u0130\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin fazla olu\u015fu kendisini en b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131 konumuna getirmektedir. Bununla birlikte ABD, ciddi miktarda petrol rezervine de sahiptir.<\/li>\n<li>Bu rezervler ve potansiyel ihtiva eden b\u00f6lgeler g\u00f6ze al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yerli petrol kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n aranmas\u0131 ve geli\u015ftirilmesi, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n en aza indirilmesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Bu noktada \u00e7evresel mevzuatlarda esnetmeler ve mevcut d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 evrelerinde sa\u011flanabilecek te\u015fvikler, at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131racak ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 cazip hale getirecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Olas\u0131 artan yerli petrol ve gaz arz\u0131 ise ABD\u2019nin k\u0131smen petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131 azaltacakt\u0131r. (K\u0131smen azaltmas\u0131n\u0131n sebebi, petrol\u00fcn i\u015flendi\u011fi rafinerilerde kullan\u0131lan petrol\u00fcn belli \u00f6zelliklerde olmas\u0131d\u0131r. Yani ABD bundan 50 y\u0131l sonra toplam t\u00fcketiminden \u00e7ok daha fazla petrol dahi \u00fcretse, baz\u0131 rafinerilerin \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya devam etmesi i\u00e7in ithalata devam etmek zorunda kal\u0131nabilecektir. Ya da ilgili rafinerileri revize etmek gerekecektir.) \u0130thalattaki azalma ve olas\u0131 ek \u00fcretimler ile k\u00fcresel piyasalarda olu\u015fan arz fazlas\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131na da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc etki yapacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Gaz ve ankonvansiyonel gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesi ve \u00fcretilmesi ise; zaten gaz konusunda kendisine yeten bir \u00fclke konumunda olan ABD\u2019nin orta ve uzun vadedeki \u00f6nemli gaz ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri olma hedefine destek olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u00d6zellikle ankonvansiyonel kaynaklar\u0131n geli\u015ftirilmesinde \u00e7evresel mevzuat ve yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n esnetilmesi, sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn geli\u015fimini daha da h\u0131zland\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Yine de genel olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden petrol fiyatlar\u0131, gaz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da etkiledi\u011finden, projelerin ekonomik hale gelmesi i\u00e7in, k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seviyelerine, milli sekt\u00f6rlerin en az etkilenmesini sa\u011flayacak \u015fekilde m\u00fcdahale etmek ABD y\u00f6netiminin dikkat etmesi gereken \u00f6nemli hususlardan bir tanesi olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u00c7evresel a\u00e7\u0131lardan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:\n<ul>\n<li>AB merkezli ba\u015flayan, \u00e7evreci ve temiz enerjiye y\u00f6nelim politikalar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya dayat\u0131lmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z hale gelecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Zaten bu hususta gelece\u011fin en b\u00fcy\u00fck t\u00fcketicileri olan \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n bu politikalara realitede \u00e7ok da fazla dikkat etmeyece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi, fosil kaynaklara sahip olan, lakin buna ra\u011fmen kendini temiz ve \u00e7evreci olma e\u011filiminde hisseden di\u011fer \u00fclkeleri de etkileyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Ayr\u0131ca, AB\u2019de bu ak\u0131m\u0131 ba\u015flatan ve bu alanda yat\u0131r\u0131m ve te\u015fvikler yapan \u00fclkeler, genellikle fosil kaynaklara sahip olmayan ve enerji ithalat\u0131 ile geli\u015fimlerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcren devletlerdir.<\/li>\n<li>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, AB merkezli ba\u015flayan ve AB i\u00e7erisinde dahi uygulamaya ge\u00e7emeyen (zaten zay\u0131flayan ve par\u00e7alanma e\u011filiminde olan AB\u2019nin bu konularda uluslararas\u0131 kamu oyunu etkilemeye pek de g\u00fcc\u00fc kalmayacakt\u0131r.) \u00e7evreci ve temiz enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fimi yava\u015flayacakt\u0131r. Yine de, geli\u015fen teknoloji ile yenilebilir yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ve enerji verimlili\u011fi hususlar\u0131na devam edilecektir. Lakin Paris iklim zirvesi gibi ortak deklarasyonlarda al\u0131nan kararlar uygulanmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Trump y\u00f6netimi ise; iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi ve \u00e7evresel hususlar\u0131n, \u00fclkelerin geli\u015fimini k\u0131s\u0131tlamak ama\u00e7l\u0131 ortaya at\u0131lan ve al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler nezdinde etkili olmayan giri\u015fimler oldu\u011funa inanmas\u0131 sebebi ile bu gibi yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kulak asmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>N\u00fckleer enerji a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan:\n<ul>\n<li>Trump ve y\u00f6netimi, y\u00fcksek teknoloji sayesinde, g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde n\u00fckleer enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131racaklar\u0131n\u0131 ifade etmi\u015flerdir. Yani ABD\u2019nin de bu alana e\u011filmesi, d\u00fcnya enerji denklemindeki n\u00fckleer enerji kullan\u0131m\u0131 tahminlerini olduk\u00e7a de\u011fi\u015ftirecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>G\u00fcne\u015f &amp; R\u00fczg\u00e2r:\n<ul>\n<li>Trump ve y\u00f6netimi g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r enerji santrallerinin, petrol gibi fosil yak\u0131tlara k\u0131yasla, hem \u00fcretti\u011fi birim enerji ba\u015f\u0131na y\u00fcksek maliyetli, hem geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc uzun zaman alan, hem de d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck verimli yat\u0131r\u0131mlar oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in tercih edilmemesi gerekti\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcndedir.<\/li>\n<li>Bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f fosil kaynaklara sahip olan b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli ve yerinde bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>ABD ulusal enerji politikalar\u0131nda beklenen e\u011filimler ve onlar\u0131n olas\u0131 uluslararas\u0131 etkileri yukar\u0131daki gibi k\u0131saca de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde, \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fimler beklenmektedir. ABD, Obama d\u00f6nemindeki (tutars\u0131z) temiz ve \u00e7evre dostu enerji politikalar\u0131 neticesinde, Rockefeller grubunun dahi (siyasi) s\u00f6ylemlerindeki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerden, yeniden mant\u0131kl\u0131, tutarl\u0131 ve net s\u00f6ylemlere geri d\u00f6nm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. (Bu konuda bknz: <a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/petrolun-devri-kapaniyor-mu\/\">https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/petrolun-devri-kapaniyor-mu\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Projeksiyonlar ve tahminler, her ne kadar yenilenebilir enerji \u00f6nemli de olsa, g\u00f6stermektedir ki, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 50 y\u0131lda do\u011fal gaz, petrol\u00fcn taht\u0131n\u0131 elinden alsa da, petrol ve do\u011fal gaz yine d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00f6nemli enerji kaynaklar\u0131 olmaya devam edecektir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile Trump y\u00f6netiminin bu yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131, fazla kapitalist alg\u0131lansa da, ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i ve yerindedir.<\/p>\n<p>(Ayr\u0131ca \u015funa da dikkat edilmelidir ki, Trump y\u00f6netiminden \u00e7ok \u00f6nce T\u00fcrkiye, (petrol arama ve \u00fcretimi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda) buna benzer yerli politikalara, yenilenebilir enerji deste\u011fini de \u00f6ng\u00f6rerek niyetlenmi\u015ftir. Bu noktada ad\u0131mlar atmaya da devam etmektedir. Eksik olan y\u00f6n\u00fc, petrol ve gaz kaynaklar\u0131d\u0131r. Ki, bunun da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmleri ve bu hususlarda at\u0131labilecek ad\u0131mlar mevcuttur. TESPAM bu konularda da \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yapmaya devam etmektedir.)<\/p>\n<p>Trump y\u00f6netiminin d\u0131\u015f politika s\u00f6ylemlerinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilecek ve uluslararas\u0131 enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyebilecek olas\u0131 konulara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><em><u>Uluslararas\u0131 politikalar belirlenirken, at\u0131lan ad\u0131m ve giri\u015fimlerin ticari getirilerinin \u00f6n planda tutulmas\u0131:<\/u><\/em><\/strong>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><em>Bu noktada Trump s\u00f6ylemlerinde, Obama\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019ye bir milyar dolar civar\u0131nda bir harcamaya mal olan Libya operasyonunu \u00f6rnek vermi\u015ftir. Bu \u00f6rne\u011finde ise b\u00f6yle bir operasyonun ancak Libya\u2019n\u0131n petrol kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n 25 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda yap\u0131labilece\u011finden bahsetmi\u015ftir.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><em>Yani bu \u00f6rnek; kirli petrol kartellerinin, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ve ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u00fczy\u0131llarda oynad\u0131klar\u0131 kanl\u0131 oyunlar\u0131n (sadece kaynak temini ve para kazanmak maksatl\u0131) artarak ve daha da \u00e7irkinle\u015ferek devam edece\u011fini, buna da bizzat d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc devletinin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fck edece\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><em>Bu s\u00f6ylem b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n, petrol\/gaz kaynaklar\u0131na sahip olan g\u00fc\u00e7s\u00fcz devletlerin ve ezilen toplumlar\u0131n endi\u015fe etmesi gereken bir tablodur.<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><em>(Hatta bir a\u00e7\u0131dan de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde; Arap Bahar\u0131 Projesi ile ABD \u00fcst akl\u0131 (ki bu akl\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde Trump\u2019u iktidara ta\u015f\u0131yan kirli petrol kartelleri olmas\u0131 muhtemeldir) ve baz\u0131 Bat\u0131l\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7 odaklar\u0131, \u00f6nemli petrol ve do\u011fal gaz rezervlerine sahip geni\u015f \u0130slam co\u011frafyas\u0131n\u0131 iyice g\u00fcvensiz ve muhta\u00e7 hale getirmi\u015ftir. \u015eimdi ise s\u0131ra; daha keskin ve sert ad\u0131mlar ile pastay\u0131 b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015fmeye gelmi\u015ftir. Bu noktada Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da k\u00f6r\u00fcklenmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan s\u00fcnni-\u015fii \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 ve Suudi Arabistan konusundaki politik de\u011fi\u015fimler olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fcd\u00fcr. B\u00f6ylesi bir oyunun kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda hamle yapma ve mazlumlar\u0131 savunma ihtimali olan tek devlet ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019dir. Zaten bu sebeple d\u00fcnyan\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ihtiyac\u0131 vard\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda Libya ile ilgili: \u201cLibya\u2019ya petrol de\u011fil, vicdan g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131n!\u201d s\u00f6ylemi tabloyu ve aradaki fark\u0131 net olarak ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"color: #008000;\"><strong><em>\u00d6zetle, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemlerde, Suudi Arabistan gibi petrol zengini olan baz\u0131 \u00fclkelere askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunmas\u0131 ihtimali s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. (Tabii bunun i\u00e7in de \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n istenen k\u0131vama getirilmesi ve b\u00f6yle bir m\u00fcdahaleye M\u0131s\u0131r ve belki \u0130ran gibi devletlerin de al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekebilir.) (Ayr\u0131ca unutulmamal\u0131d\u0131r ki, b\u00f6yle bir m\u00fcdahale petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, ABD\u2019nin i\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 canland\u0131rmas\u0131na ve aramac\u0131l\u0131k faaliyetlerine h\u0131z verilmesine yarayacakt\u0131r.)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Rusya ile iyile\u015fece\u011fi ifade edilen ili\u015fkiler neticesinde:\n<ul>\n<li>AB\u2019nin Rusya\u2019n\u0131n gaz ihracat politikalar\u0131n\u0131 engelleyici tutumu zay\u0131flayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bu noktada en b\u00fcy\u00fck etki ve AB\u2019ye destek ABD taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flanmaktad\u0131r. Lakin zaten son d\u00f6nemlerdeki Ukrayna ve Nord Stream 2 ile ilgili geli\u015fmeler, ABD\u2019nin ilgili politikalar\u0131n\u0131n da ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran ile revize edilme yada iptal edilme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olan n\u00fckleer anla\u015fma hususunda:\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130ran her ne kadar Obama\u2019n\u0131n son d\u00f6nemlerinde s\u00fcnni-\u015fii \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n k\u00f6r\u00fcklenmesi ama\u00e7l\u0131 tercih edilen Orta Do\u011fu\u2019daki m\u00fcttefik olarak alg\u0131lansa da, b\u00f6lgedeki etkin T\u00fcrkiye ger\u00e7e\u011fi baz\u0131 planlar\u0131n revize edilmesi gerekti\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini de uyand\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bu noktada \u0130ran ile kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 ve geli\u015ftirilmesi hususunda i\u015f birli\u011fine gidilebilece\u011fi gibi, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131nda tutmak ama\u00e7l\u0131, mevcut anla\u015fman\u0131n revize edilerek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi hususu da tercih edilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>AB ile ili\u015fkiler:\n<ul>\n<li>Brexit sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te, Almanya etkisi hissedilen AB\u2019den so\u011fuma sinyalleri veren ABD\u2019nin, Trump sonras\u0131 AB\u2019nin birli\u011fine verdi\u011fi siyasi-politik ve askeri deste\u011fi biraz daha azaltabilmesi s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. Ayr\u0131ca AB \u00fcyesi \u00fclkelerde de, artan milliyet\u00e7ilik ak\u0131m\u0131, g\u00f6\u00e7men kar\u015f\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131, AB\u2019de de bir ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ve zay\u0131flaman\u0131n tetik\u00e7isi olmas\u0131 beklenebilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Bu durumda ABD\u2019nin, enerji politikalar\u0131 ve enerji arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fi hususlar\u0131nda, AB\u2019yi desteklemek yerine, zaten ortak stratejiler uygulayamayan AB\u2019nin tamam\u0131 yerine, sadece kendisine politik olarak yak\u0131n duran \u00fcyelerini desteklemeyi tercih etmesi beklenecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Bu beklenti dahilinde ABD ile \u0130ngiltere aras\u0131nda baz\u0131 gaz (LNG) sat\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde de \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da yap\u0131lan tahminler, T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yorumland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda; petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede devam etme ihtimali, FET\u00d6\u2019ye destek veren ve arkas\u0131nda olan (ABD\u2019de Obama y\u00f6netiminin ve AB\u2019de di\u011fer ilgililerin) y\u00f6netimlerin zay\u0131flamalar\u0131, b\u00f6lgesel rakip konumunda olan \u0130ran ile ilgili olu\u015fan soru i\u015faretleri, olumlu bir tablo ortaya koyulmas\u0131na sebep olmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte yukar\u0131da ifade edilen, ABD\u2019nin petrol kartellerinin kirli oyunlar\u0131 do\u011frultusunda, sadece gelir ve kaynak temini ama\u00e7l\u0131 petrol ve gaz kaynaklar\u0131 ihtiva eden \u00fclkelere, askeri m\u00fcdahalede bulunabilme ihtimali, b\u00fct\u00fcn olumlu senaryolar\u0131 alt\u00fcst etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Trump y\u00f6netimi ile birlikte, yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131n se\u00e7ilmesinde deste\u011fi oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen ve se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda borsadaki hisse de\u011ferlerinde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlenen petrol kartellerinin, uluslararas\u0131 politikalara nas\u0131l etki edebilece\u011fi gelece\u011fi \u015fekillendirecek en \u00f6nemli konu olacakt\u0131r. Bununla da birlikte, gelece\u011fin; temiz ve yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131n de\u011fil, yine beklenildi\u011fi \u00fczere: petrol ve gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n devri olaca\u011f\u0131 kesinlik kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>&#8220;Yay\u0131nlanan haber ve yaz\u0131lar\u0131n t\u00fcm haklar\u0131 TESPAM&#8217;a aittir. <\/strong><strong>Tekrar yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131 halinde kaynak g\u00f6sterilerek bu sayfaya aktif ba\u011flant\u0131 sa\u011flanmas\u0131 zorunludur.&#8221;<\/strong><\/span><\/h5>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki enerji politikalar\u0131 odakl\u0131 ilk ve tek sivil yap\u0131lanma\u2026\u201d\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\"><strong>\u201cEnerji politikalar\u0131 alan\u0131nda g\u00fcndemi uzaktan takip etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir T\u00fcrkiye yerine, g\u00fcndem belirleyen bir T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ula\u015fma idealiyle\u2026\u201d<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-2441 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/12\/logo.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"125\" height=\"125\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">TESPAM-T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Politikalar\u0131 ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi<\/p>\n<h6><em><strong>TESPAM, Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Derne\u011finin Bir Kurulu\u015fudur<\/strong><\/em><\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oakyener@tespam.org\/tr &nbsp; &nbsp; \u201cLibya\u2019ya petrol de\u011fil, vicdan g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131n!\u201d Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, 2011 &nbsp; Bir\u00e7ok uzman\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminlerin aksine, b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol kartellerinin\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":3862,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[258,1089,106,177,117,135,108,109],"tags":[261,321,345,224,196,287,346,347,348,114,349,315,134,316,119,120,330],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-3861","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-avrupa","category-enerji-turune-gore","category-kose-yazilari","category-abd","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-rusya","category-tr","category-turkiye","tag-ab","tag-abd-rusya","tag-baskan-trump","tag-brexit","tag-enerji-politkalari","tag-iran","tag-libya","tag-nukleer-enerji","tag-obama-donemi","tag-oguzhan-akyener","tag-petrol-ve-dogal-ga","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan","tag-rusya","tag-strateji","tag-tespam","tag-turkiye","tag-turkiye-rusya"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trump \u0130le Enerjide De\u011fi\u015fen Dengeler &amp; Petrol Kartelleri - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/trump-ile-enerjide-degisen-dengeler-petrol-kartelleri\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump \u0130le Enerjide De\u011fi\u015fen Dengeler &amp; Petrol Kartelleri - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 oakyener@tespam.org\/tr &nbsp; &nbsp; \u201cLibya\u2019ya petrol de\u011fil, vicdan g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131n!\u201d Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, 2011 &nbsp; Bir\u00e7ok uzman\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahminlerin aksine, b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol kartellerinin\u2026\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/trump-ile-enerjide-degisen-dengeler-petrol-kartelleri\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tespam\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2016-11-14T07:27:22+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T19:14:20+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"O\u011fuzhan Akyener\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@tespam_\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@tespam_\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"O\u011fuzhan Akyener\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"12 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/trump-ile-enerjide-degisen-dengeler-petrol-kartelleri\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/trump-ile-enerjide-degisen-dengeler-petrol-kartelleri\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"O\u011fuzhan Akyener\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8aa1bb74de1791c2067be862b8ed2f61\"},\"headline\":\"Trump \u0130le Enerjide De\u011fi\u015fen Dengeler &amp; 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