{"id":4038,"date":"2016-09-09T14:52:10","date_gmt":"2016-09-09T11:52:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=4038"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:21","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:21","slug":"iran-iran-gazi-icin-hindistan-piyasalari-ve-turkiye","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/iran-iran-gazi-icin-hindistan-piyasalari-ve-turkiye\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130ran, \u0130ran Gaz\u0131 \u0130\u00e7in Hindistan Piyasalar\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">BP\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cStatistical Review of World Energy 2016\u201d isimli raporda ifade edildi\u011fi \u00fczere, 34 trilyon m3\u2019l\u00fck kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f gaz rezervleri ile d\u00fcnyada ilk s\u0131rada yer alan \u0130ran, ambargolar\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 neticesinde yeniden artan \u00fcretim ve ihracat potansiyeli dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, b\u00fct\u00fcn k\u00fcresel akt\u00f6rlerin ilgisini \u00e7ekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bulundu\u011fu konum itibar\u0131 ile en \u00e7ok gaz ithalat ihtiyac\u0131na sahip olan;\u00a0 Avrupa, \u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019\u0131n nerede ise ortas\u0131nda yer alan \u0130ran, acaba gelecekte hangi pazarlara y\u00f6nelecek ve ne gibi ihracat stratejileri izleyecebilecektir?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu soruya cevap verebilmek i\u00e7in muhakkak ki, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n y\u0131llara g\u00f6re gaz ihra\u00e7 potansiyelinin tahmin edilmesi ve gaz ihracat potansiyelini etkileyecek olan; saha geli\u015ftirme imkanlar\u0131, yerli teknolojiler, finansman ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, gaz \u00fcretim maliyetleri, ihracat i\u00e7in gerekli altyap\u0131lar ve bu altyap\u0131lar\u0131n nakliyat maliyetine etkileri, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim projeksiyonlar\u0131 gibi bir \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 kriterin de detayl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n neredeyse mevcut \u00fcretime yak\u0131n olan i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi, yeni d\u00fczenlemelere ra\u011fmen hala \u00e7ok da cezbedici olmayan ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 kabartmayan yasal mevzuatlar\u0131, yetersiz ve geri kalm\u0131\u015f yerli teknolojileri, \u00f6zellikle gaz kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ihtiva eden deniz sahalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek birim \u00fcretim maliyetleri, zay\u0131f finansal altyap\u0131s\u0131 ve ilgili b\u00fcy\u00fck pazarlara ihracat\u0131 sa\u011flayacak altyap\u0131n\u0131n olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131 gibi durumlar, yak\u0131n zamanda b\u00fcy\u00fck at\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015femeyece\u011fini g\u00f6stermekte ve yap\u0131lacak tahminleri etkilemektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Di\u011fer bir de\u011fi\u015fle, b\u00fcy\u00fck kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f gaz kaynaklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, \u0130ran gaz piyasalar\u0131nda, en az\u0131ndan yak\u0131n ve orta vadede Rusya gibi etkili olabilmekten \u00e7ok uzakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu durumu dikkate alarak, yine de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gaz ihracat potansiyelinin orta vadede artaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu artan potansiyelin hangi marketlere ihra\u00e7 edilece\u011fi de\u011ferlendirilirse:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u00d6ncelikle mevcut nakil altyap\u0131s\u0131, artan talep potansiyeli ve ticari ge\u00e7mi\u015fi de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde; T\u00fcrkiye yine ilk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen ve en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck maliyetle ula\u015f\u0131labilen market olmaya devam edecektir.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, yeni ba\u015flan\u0131lan Irak\u2019a gaz tedari\u011finin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 ikinci se\u00e7enek olarak masada yerini alacakt\u0131r. Lakin orta yada uzun vadede Irak\u2019\u0131n kendi kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirerek gaz talebini azaltma ihtimali bu se\u00e7ene\u011fin her zaman ikinci plana at\u0131labilmesine sebep olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Yeniden geli\u015fen ili\u015fkiler neticesinde, Avrupa\u2019ya T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden in\u015faa edilecek bir boru hatt\u0131 ile gaz tedari\u011fi siyasi arg\u00fcman olarak dillendirilse de, birim gaz \u00fcretim maliyeti, ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetleri ve Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, bu se\u00e7enek ekonomik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan uygulanamayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Kendisine \u00e7ok uzak olan \u00c7in pazar\u0131na T\u00fcrkmenistan \u00fczerinden mevcut boru hatlar\u0131 ile ula\u015f\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilse de, bu se\u00e7enek de hem siyasi olarak, hem de ekonomik olarak orta vadede dahi uygulanabilir g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Bu se\u00e7eneklerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda geriye yeni LNG tesisleri ile d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131na a\u00e7\u0131lmak ve Hindistan piyasalar\u0131na in\u015faa edilecek bir boru hatt\u0131 ile ula\u015fmak kalmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">LNG opsiyonu, her ne kadar daha fazla piyasaya eri\u015fim imkan\u0131 sa\u011flasa da, uzun vadeli fiyat riskleri, y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyetleri gibi baz\u0131 hususlar de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde ikinci se\u00e7enek olarak de\u011ferlendirmesi daha yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peki, acaba \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Hindistan piyasalar\u0131na ula\u015fma imkan\u0131 nedir? Bu nas\u0131l ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilecektir?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu noktada, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n zaten yukar\u0131da de\u011ferlendirilen T\u00fcrkiye ve Irak gaz ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra uzun s\u00fcredir Hindistan pazar\u0131na ula\u015fma gayretinin de mevcut oldu\u011fu bilinmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu kapsamda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Pakistan ve oradan Hindistan piyasalar\u0131na nakil edilmek \u00fczere 28 milyar m3\/y\u0131l kapasiteli bir boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n in\u015faa edilmesi kapsam\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmekteydi. Fakat, Pakistan aya\u011f\u0131ndan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ifade edilen siyasi ve finansal \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fckler neticesinde proje bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc ilerleme kaydedemedi.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bunun \u00fczerine \u0130ran\u2019l\u0131 yetkileler taraf\u0131ndan, Hindistan\u2019a 1400 km uzunlu\u011funda ve baz\u0131 noktalarda 3500 metre derinlikten ge\u00e7ecek olan, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en uzun deniz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n in\u015faa edilece\u011fi konular\u0131nda s\u00f6ylemlerde bulunuldu.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peki bu s\u00f6ylem ne kadar ger\u00e7ek\u00e7idir?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Y\u0131llard\u0131r T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya bir \u0130ran gaz boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fa ediliyor oldu\u011funa dair bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc realiteye d\u00f6nmeyen s\u00f6ylemler yer al\u0131yor ve bu s\u00f6ylemler ekonomik kriterler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tutars\u0131z oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131labiliyorken, acaba bas\u0131nda yer alan bu s\u00f6yleme de itibar edilmemeli midir?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu soruya cevap verebilmek i\u00e7in, yukar\u0131da da bahsedildi\u011fi \u00fczere \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n mevcut anla\u015fmalar, en ekonomik olarak ula\u015f\u0131labilecek yak\u0131n market potansiyelleri, i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi gibi kriterler neticesinde y\u0131ll\u0131k gaz arz kapasitesinin belirlenmesinden sonra, ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyetleri ve Hindistan piyasalar\u0131ndaki ortalama gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da \u00f6ncelikle de\u011ferlendirilmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu kapsamda:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n t\u00fcm kriterler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131ktan sonra, orta vadede (\u00f6rne\u011fin 2035\u2019ler de) Hindistan piyasalar\u0131na y\u0131ll\u0131k 30 milyar m3 gaz ihra\u00e7 edebilecek kapasiteye sahip olaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131r ise,<\/li>\n<li>Bu gaz\u0131n boru hatt\u0131 ile ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2018 sonlar\u0131nda yeniden 70 $\/varil seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131m\u0131 ile, bu uzunlukta ve 30 milyar m3\/y\u0131l kapasiteli bir boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n en az\u0131ndan 16 milyar $\u2019a mal olaca\u011f\u0131 ve bunun i\u00e7 karl\u0131l\u0131k oran\u0131n\u0131n 10 varsay\u0131lmas\u0131 neticesinde en az\u0131ndan 180 $\/1000 m3\u2019l\u00fck ta\u015f\u0131ma maliyeti getirece\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131n\u0131rsa,<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bahsedilen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 band\u0131nda deniz sahalar\u0131ndan ortalama birim \u00fcretim maliyetinin 120 $\/1000 m3 seviyelerinde olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrse,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130ran gaz\u0131n\u0131n vergi, sigorta vb. maliyetler d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda Hindistan\u2019a ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki maliyeti 120+180=300 $\/1000 m3 olacakt\u0131r. Yani \u0130lgili petrol fiyatlar\u0131 band\u0131 i\u00e7in gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden 350 $\/1000 m3\u2019ler seviyelerinde olaca\u011f\u0131 beklenir ise, bu ticaret m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yani basit ekonomik kriterler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dahi \u0130ran gaz\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya (\u0130talya yada Baumgarten piyasalar\u0131na) boru hatt\u0131 ile nakli opsiyonundan daha tutarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Demek ki, as\u0131l de\u011ferlendirilmesi gereken hususlar \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n orta vadede gaz ihra\u00e7 potansiyeli ve b\u00f6yle bir hatt\u0131n finansman\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise, bu durum; Avrupa\u2019ya \u00fczerinden \u0130ran gaz nakli imkan\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n gaz arz fazlas\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomik olarak y\u00f6nelebilece\u011fi bir Hindistan piyasas\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011finden, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bir gaz transit merkezi olmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan negatif g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, T\u00fcrkiye yine de konumu gere\u011fi \u0130ran i\u00e7in en tercih edilen market olma konumunu koruyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ayr\u0131ca kaynak \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fi ile b\u00fcy\u00fck hacimlerde gaz depolama kapasitesine sahip, gaz ticareti yap\u0131yor olabilen bir T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in bu durum \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Belki de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bir gaz transit merkezi olma hedefinden de ziyade bu do\u011frultuda uzun vadel5i stratejiler geli\u015ftirmesi daha yerinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\">O\u011fuzhan AKYENER<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000080;\">TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>BP\u2019nin haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cStatistical Review of World Energy 2016\u201d isimli raporda ifade edildi\u011fi \u00fczere, 34 trilyon m3\u2019l\u00fck kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f gaz rezervleri ile d\u00fcnyada ilk s\u0131rada yer alan \u0130ran,\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":4039,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[258,322,891,106,131,117,135,108,109],"tags":[1201,1202,308,287,300,114,229,203,230,119],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-4038","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-avrupa","category-cin","category-hindistan","category-kose-yazilari","category-orta-dogu","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-rusya","category-tr","category-turkiye","tag-gaz-ihraci","tag-gaz-transit-merkezi","tag-hindistan","tag-iran","tag-lng","tag-oguzhan-akyener","tag-oil","tag-opec","tag-ortadogu","tag-tespam"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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