{"id":4280462657,"date":"2026-02-13T01:35:38","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T22:35:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/?p=4280462657"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:35","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:35","slug":"tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130:<\/p>\n<p>2019 VE 2025 K\u00dcRESEL ENERJ\u0130 G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcM\u00dc RAPORLARININ METODOLOJ\u0130K VE BULGUSAL \u0130NCELEMES\u0130<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6zet<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, TESPAM (T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi) taraf\u0131ndan 2019 ve 2025 y\u0131llar\u0131nda yay\u0131nlanan &#8216;K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100&#8217; raporlar\u0131n\u0131n kapsaml\u0131 bir kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analizini sunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ki rapor aras\u0131ndaki be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k s\u00fcrede, k\u00fcresel enerji projeksiyonlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli metodolojik geli\u015fmeler ve bulgusal farkl\u0131l\u0131klar ortaya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2019 projeksiyonlar\u0131, demografik ve sosyoekonomik fakt\u00f6rlere dayal\u0131 rasyonel bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla %91&#8217;lik bir birincil enerji t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 2025 g\u00fcncellemesi yapay zeka destekli metodolojilerle bu oran\u0131 %74&#8217;e revize etmi\u015f, ancak elektrik t\u00fcketiminin ikiye katlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve n\u00fckleer enerjinin bask\u0131n elektrik kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. 2019 raporunda do\u011falgaz\u0131n %38.85 ve yenilenebilirlerin %37.21 paya ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 belirtilirken, 2025 raporu karbon emisyonlar\u0131nda %23&#8217;l\u00fck azalma ve b\u00f6lgesel farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131 (\u00c7in %71 azalma, Hindistan %33 art\u0131\u015f) vurgulamaktad\u0131r. Bu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analiz, TESPAM projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n iklim hedefi merkezli senaryolardan nas\u0131l ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, metodolojik evrimini ve k\u00fcresel enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i dinamiklerini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Anahtar Kelimeler: TESPAM, enerji projeksiyonlar\u0131, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analiz, metodolojik evrim, k\u00fcresel enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc, n\u00fckleer enerji, karbon emisyonlar\u0131, rasyonel projeksiyon metodolojisi<\/p>\n<p>1. Giri\u015f: Enerji Projeksiyonlar\u0131nda Metodolojik Yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131n \u00d6nemi<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel enerji sistemlerinin gelece\u011fini anlamak, politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar ve akademik topluluk i\u00e7in kritik \u00f6neme sahiptir. Ancak enerji projeksiyonlar\u0131 alan\u0131nda metodolojik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar aras\u0131nda temel bir ayr\u0131m bulunmaktad\u0131r: iklim hedeflerinden geriye do\u011fru \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan normatif senaryolar ile ampirik ger\u00e7ekliklerden ileriye do\u011fru in\u015fa edilen pozitivist projeksiyonlar. TESPAM&#8217;\u0131n 2019 ve 2025 y\u0131llar\u0131nda yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 &#8216;K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100&#8217; raporlar\u0131, bu ikinci yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fc \u00f6rneklerini temsil etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>2019 raporunun yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131ndan bu yana ge\u00e7en be\u015f y\u0131l, hem k\u00fcresel enerji dinamiklerinde hem de projeksiyon metodolojilerinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmelere tan\u0131kl\u0131k etmi\u015ftir. COVID-19 pandemisi, Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131, enerji krizleri, yapay zeka teknolojilerindeki at\u0131l\u0131mlar ve iklim politikalar\u0131ndaki paradigma de\u011fi\u015fimleri, enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn yeniden de\u011ferlendirilmesini zorunlu k\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda, 2025 raporunun yay\u0131nlanmas\u0131, sadece g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f bir projeksiyon seti sunmakla kalmam\u0131\u015f, ayn\u0131 zamanda ilk raporun do\u011frulu\u011funu test etme ve metodolojik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini de\u011ferlendirme f\u0131rsat\u0131 yaratm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n temel amac\u0131, TESPAM&#8217;\u0131n 2019 ve 2025 projeksiyonlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki metodolojik evrim ve bulgusal farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 sistematik olarak analiz etmektir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma, (1) her iki raporun metodolojik temellerini kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmakta, (2) temel bulgular\u0131 ve projeksiyon de\u011fi\u015fikliklerini incelemekte, (3) farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n nedenlerini a\u00e7\u0131klamakta, ve (4) bu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analizin k\u00fcresel enerji politikalar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>2. Metodolojik Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma<\/p>\n<p>2.1. 2019 Raporunun Metodolojik Temelleri<\/p>\n<p>2019 TESPAM K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc raporu, iklim hedefi merkezli teyit edilmemi\u015f senaryolara nazaran muhafazakar bir yakla\u015f\u0131mla sergileyerek, mevcut mevzuatlara ve iklim uyumlanma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 demografik ve sosyoekonomik ger\u00e7ekliklere dayanan rasyonel bir projeksiyon metodolojisi geli\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Raporun metodolojik \u00e7er\u00e7evesi \u015fu temel unsurlara dayanmaktad\u0131r:Normatif De\u011ferlendirme: \u00dclkelerin Ekonomik de\u011ferlendirmelerinde esas al\u0131nan finansal kapasiteleri ve Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131na dayal\u0131 Enerji, \u00c7evre ve Ekonomi mevzuat d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kamu taraf\u0131nda Kurumsal ve Hukuki mevzuat d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelere dayal\u0131 ihtiya\u00e7 analizlerinin uzun bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 alaca\u011f\u0131<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>\u00e7evresel beklentilere dayal\u0131 kayg\u0131 projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bu normatif d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc h\u0131zland\u0131rmaya yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc hakimdir.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Demografik Katmanl\u0131 Analiz: Rapor, k\u00fcresel n\u00fcfusu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, orta ve y\u00fcksek gelir gruplar\u0131na ay\u0131rarak, her grubun enerji t\u00fcketim modellerini, teknolojiye eri\u015fim kapasitelerini ve tercih \u00f6nceliklerini ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 modellemektedir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, toplam n\u00fcfus projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesine ge\u00e7erek, gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 dinamiklerinin enerji trendleri \u00fczerindeki etkisini yakalar.<\/li>\n<li>Gelir-A\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 Enerji Etkisi Kavram\u0131: Rapor, farkl\u0131 gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel enerji trendlerini \u015fekillendirmedeki etkilerini \u00f6l\u00e7mek i\u00e7in yenilik\u00e7i bir metrik geli\u015ftirmi\u015ftir. Bu metri\u011fe g\u00f6re, 2050-2070 aras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelir gruplar\u0131 %20, orta gelir gruplar\u0131 %65, y\u00fcksek gelir gruplar\u0131 %15 oran\u0131nda etki sahibi olacak; 2070-2100 aras\u0131nda ise bu oranlar s\u0131ras\u0131yla %23, %64 ve %12&#8217;ye evirilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Teknoloji Yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 Modelleme: Temiz enerji teknolojilerinin benimsenme oranlar\u0131, teknoloji maliyetleri, finansmana eri\u015fim, altyap\u0131 gereksinimleri ve rekabet eden kalk\u0131nma \u00f6ncelikleri dikkate al\u0131narak modellenmi\u015ftir. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m, teknoloji dif\u00fczyonunun uniform olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, gelir d\u00fczeylerine g\u00f6re \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul eder.<\/li>\n<li>Davran\u0131\u015fsal Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik: Rapor, farkl\u0131 gelir gruplar\u0131n\u0131n enerji tercihlerinin farkl\u0131 \u00f6ncelikleri yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kabul eder. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli pop\u00fclasyonlar i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelik, temizlik veya verimlilik de\u011fil, eri\u015filebilir maliyetle ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131n\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmektir. Bu sosyolojik ger\u00e7eklik, projeksiyon modellemesinin merkezine yerle\u015ftirilmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2.2. 2025 Raporunda Metodolojik Geli\u015fmeler<\/p>\n<p>2025 g\u00fcncellemesi, 2019&#8217;un temel metodolojik \u00e7er\u00e7evesini korurken, \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler sunmaktad\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131: Anla\u015fman\u0131n uygulanmas\u0131ndaki gecikmenin telafisi i\u00e7in ortaya konan finansman\u0131n \u00fclkelerin ekonomileri ve istihdama olumlu etkisi gerek\u00e7eleri do\u011frultusunda anla\u015fman\u0131n ratifikasyonlar\u0131nda ve normatif altyap\u0131da tespit edilen<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span> ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerin enerji denklemlerindeki yans\u0131malar\u0131 analiz edilmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>Yapay Zek\u00e2 Entegrasyonu: 2025 raporu, \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck veri setlerini i\u015flemek ve karma\u015f\u0131k etkile\u015fimleri modellemek i\u00e7in yapay zek\u00e2 destekli metodolojiler kullanmaktad\u0131r. Bu, daha ince taneli analizlere ve b\u00f6lgesel farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131n daha iyi yakalanmas\u0131na olanak tan\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Sekt\u00f6rel Ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rma: 2025 raporu, birincil enerji t\u00fcketiminin \u00f6tesinde elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc ayr\u0131 ayr\u0131 modellemektedir. Bu, elektrikle\u015fme trendlerinin, \u015febeke modernizasyonunun ve n\u00fckleer enerjinin y\u00fckselen rol\u00fcn\u00fcn daha iyi anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/li>\n<li>Karbon Emisyon Takibi: 2025 raporu, enerji t\u00fcketim projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 karbon emisyon hesaplamalar\u0131yla entegre ederek, iklim etkilerinin daha a\u00e7\u0131k de\u011ferlendirmesini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar. Bu, 2019 raporunun daha \u00f6rt\u00fck emisyon muhakemesinden \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fmedir.<\/li>\n<li>Jeopolitik Fakt\u00f6r Entegrasyonu: 2025 raporu, ABD-\u00c7in rekabetinin ve Paris \u0130klim Anla\u015fmas\u0131&#8217;ndan uzakla\u015fman\u0131n enerji dinamikleri \u00fczerindeki etkilerini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a dikkate almaktad\u0131r. Bu, 2019 raporunun daha apolitik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131ndan bir kaymay\u0131 temsil eder ve yeni jeopolitik ger\u00e7eklikleri yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>3. Temel Bulgular\u0131n Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131<\/p>\n<p>3.1. Toplam Birincil Enerji T\u00fcketimi<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki rapor aras\u0131ndaki en g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpan farklardan biri, toplam birincil enerji t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f projeksiyonlar\u0131ndaki revizyondur:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2019 Projeksiyonu: 2019-2100 aras\u0131 %91&#8217;lik art\u0131\u015f, 583 milyon GJ&#8217;den yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,113 milyon GJ&#8217;e y\u00fckseli\u015fi,<\/li>\n<li>2025 Projeksiyonu: 2024-2100 aras\u0131 %74&#8217;l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f, 620.5 milyon GJ&#8217;den 1.08 milyar GJ&#8217;e y\u00fckseli\u015f, \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu %17&#8217;lik projeksiyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (91%&#8217;den 74%&#8217;e) \u00f6nemli bir revizyonu temsil eder ve birka\u00e7 fakt\u00f6r\u00fc yans\u0131t\u0131r: (1) Yo\u011fun Enerji kullanan sekt\u00f6rlerde rekabetin getirdi\u011fi Enerji Verimlili\u011fi uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve teknolojilerindeki geli\u015fim,(2) COVID-19 pandemisinin kal\u0131c\u0131 davran\u0131\u015fsal etkileri, (3) Enerji fiyat \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131,<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>(4) Teknoloji maliyetlerindeki beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, (5) Ukrayna-Rusya sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n AB \u00fczerinde fiyat ve ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k temelli olumsuz yans\u0131malar\u0131 sonucunda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen yap\u0131sal d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmler ve (6) Y\u00fcksek verimlilikteki E- Mobilite teknolojilerindeki h\u0131zl\u0131 geli\u015fme s\u0131ralanabilir.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak %74&#8217;l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f hala \u00f6nemli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi temsil eder ve iklim hedefi merkezli senaryolar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fundan \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha y\u00fcksektir. Bu, TESPAM&#8217;\u0131n demografik art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesinin ve s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 enerji eri\u015fiminin hala \u00f6nemli talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yarataca\u011f\u0131 temel \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini onaylar.<\/p>\n<p>3.2. Enerji Karmas\u0131 Projeksiyonlar\u0131<\/p>\n<p>2019 raporu, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in birincil enerji karmas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n<\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Enerji Kayna\u011f\u0131<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">2019<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">2050<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">2100<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Petrol<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%30.79<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%29.84<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%21.39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Do\u011falgaz<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%22.28<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%28.37<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%38.85<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Yenilenebilir<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%12.19<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%20.08<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%37.21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">K\u00f6m\u00fcr<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%25.74<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%18.57<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">&lt;%2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">N\u00fckleer<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%2.21<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%3.14<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%2-3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>dan detayl\u0131 projeksiyonlar sunmu\u015ftur:<\/p>\n<p>Tablo 1: 2019 Raporuna G\u00f6re Birincil Enerji Karmas\u0131 Projeksiyonlar\u0131<\/p>\n<p>Tablo 1\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, 2019 raporu fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n kademeli bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm ge\u00e7irece\u011fini ancak toplam enerji karmas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli rollerini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir. K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc (%25.74\u2019ten &lt;%2\u2019ye) ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015fi (%22.28\u2019den %38.85\u2019e), fosil yak\u0131t tercihlerinde bir temizlenme e\u011filimini karbon emisyon hedefleri do\u011frultusunda yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. Yenilenebilir enerjinin \u00fc\u00e7 kattan fazla art\u0131\u015f\u0131 (%12.19\u2019dan %37.21\u2019e) ve do\u011falgaza yak\u0131n bir paya ula\u015fmas\u0131, temiz enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn h\u0131zla<\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Enerji Kayna\u011f\u0131<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">2024<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">2050<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">2100<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Petrol<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%31.5<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%27.4<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%24.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Do\u011falgaz<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%23.5<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%20.3<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%14.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">Yenilenebilir<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%14.3<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%19.7<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%23.9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">K\u00f6m\u00fcr<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%26.6<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%16.8<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%10.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"top\">N\u00fckleer<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%4.1<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%14.2<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">%22.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>naca\u011f\u0131 beklentisini g\u00f6stermektedir. N\u00fckleer enerjinin ise m\u00fctevazi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetmesi (%2.21\u2019den %2-3\u2019e), 2019 raporunun bu teknolojinin gelece\u011fi konusunda temkinli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m benimsedi\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>2025 raporuna g\u00f6re ise ilgili da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda belirtildi\u011fi gibidir:<\/p>\n<p>Tablo 2: 2025 Raporuna G\u00f6re Birincil Enerji Karmas\u0131 Projeksiyonlar\u0131<\/p>\n<p>Tablo 2\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen 2025 projeksiyonlar\u0131, 2019 raporundan \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde farkl\u0131la\u015fmaktad\u0131r. En \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklik, n\u00fckleer enerjinin dramatik y\u00fckseli\u015fidir: %4.1\u2019den %22.4\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131, n\u00fckleer teknolojisinin art\u0131k enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn merkezinde g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00d6zellikle ya\u015fanan enerji krizi ile d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeniden n\u00fckleere d\u00f6nmek zorunda oldu\u011funu anlamas\u0131 bu minvalde dengeleri etkilemi\u015ftir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, 2019\u2019da bask\u0131n kaynak olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen do\u011falgaz, 2025 raporunda ciddi bir gerileme g\u00f6stermektedir (%23.5\u2019ten %14.8\u2019e). Bunun da sebebi ilgili talebi kar\u015f\u0131layacak ekonomik ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir do\u011falgaz rezerv potansiyelinin olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131d\u0131r. Petrol t\u00fcketimi hala \u00f6nemli olmakla birlikte (%31.5\u2019ten %24.9\u2019a) daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sergilerken, k\u00f6m\u00fcr her iki raporda da keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermektedir ancak 2025\u2019te daha y\u00fcksek bir taban seviyesinde kalmaktad\u0131r (%26.6\u2019dan %10.8\u2019e). Bunun da sebebi temiz k\u00f6m\u00fcr teknolojilerindeki \u00fcmit verici uygun maliyetli geli\u015fmelerdir.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>En dikkat \u00e7ekici farkl\u0131l\u0131k yenilenebilir enerji projeksiyonlar\u0131ndad\u0131r: 2019\u2019da %37.21\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklenirken, 2025 raporu sadece %23.9 \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir. Bu \u00f6nemli revizyon, yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerinin yayg\u0131nla\u015fma h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta tahmin edilenden daha yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 ve n\u00fckleer enerjinin temiz enerji ge\u00e7i\u015finde daha merkezi bir rol \u00fcstlenece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f de\u011ferlendirmeyi yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc yenilenebilir enerji s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir ve ucuz enerji arz\u0131 sa\u011flamamakta, depolama maliyetlerindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yeterli g\u00f6r\u00fclmemekte ve yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerinde ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan nadir toprak elementleri ve kritik minerallere eri\u015fim hususunda sorunlar g\u00f6zlemlenmektedir.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>3.3. Elektrik Sekt\u00f6r\u00fc: Yeni Bir Odak Noktas\u0131<\/p>\n<p>2025 raporunun en \u00f6nemli katk\u0131lar\u0131ndan biri, elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 modellemesidir:<\/p>\n<p>Elektrik T\u00fcketimi Art\u0131\u015f\u0131: 2019 raporu elektrik t\u00fcketiminin %175 oran\u0131nda artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, 2025 raporu daha spesifik olarak elektrik t\u00fcketiminin ikiye katlanarak (%110 oran\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile) 61,582 TWh&#8217;a ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 projeksiyon eder.<\/p>\n<p>N\u00fckleer Enerjinin Y\u00fckseli\u015fi: 2025 raporunun en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 bulgusu, n\u00fckleer enerjinin dramatik y\u00fckseli\u015fi ve fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131 geride b\u0131rakarak bask\u0131n enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 projeksiyonudur. Tablo 2\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc \u00fczere, n\u00fckleer enerjinin 2024\u2019teki %4.1 pay\u0131ndan 2100\u2019de %22.4\u2019e ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Bu be\u015f kattan fazla art\u0131\u015f, 2019 raporunun n\u00fckleer enerjinin \u2018m\u00fctevazi b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u2019 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnden (%2.21\u2019den %2-3\u2019e) radikal bir ayr\u0131lmay\u0131 temsil etmektedir. \u00d6zellikle 2050 y\u0131l\u0131nda n\u00fckleer enerjinin %14.2 paya ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 projeksiyonu, bu teknolojinin y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortas\u0131na do\u011fru h\u0131zlanan bir y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. Bunda ekonomik hale gelmesi beklenen SMR ve Mikro \u00f6l\u00e7ekli reakt\u00f6rlerin etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>K\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn A\u015famal\u0131 \u00c7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131: Her iki rapor da k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketiminin azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 projeksiyon etse de, yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermektedir. 2019 raporu k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn %25.74\u2019ten %2\u2019nin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ferek neredeyse tamamen ortadan kalkaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcrken, 2025 raporu daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir azalma projekte etmektedir: %26.6\u2019dan %10.8\u2019e. Bu revizyon, k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcn \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden daha diren\u00e7li olaca\u011f\u0131 ve tamamen ortadan kalkmaktan ziyade \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f de\u011ferlendirmeyi yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. Di\u011fer taraftan s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir elektrik arz\u0131 i\u00e7in bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmemi\u015f \u00fclke (Hindistan gibi) k\u00f6m\u00fcr t\u00fcketmeye de mecburdur.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>3.4. Karbon Emisyonlar\u0131: \u0130klim Ger\u00e7eklikleriyle Y\u00fczle\u015fmek<\/p>\n<p>2025 raporu, 2019 raporunda \u00f6rt\u00fck olan karbon emisyon beklentilerini a\u00e7\u0131k hale getirir:<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel Emisyonlar: 2100&#8217;e kadar %23&#8217;l\u00fck azalma projeksiyonu. Bu, \u00f6nemli bir iyile\u015fmeyi temsil eder, ancak net-s\u0131f\u0131r hedeflerinden uzakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6lgesel Farkl\u0131la\u015fma: \u00c7in %71 azalma (n\u00fckleer geni\u015fleme ve k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f yoluyla), ABD ve AB ~%80 azalma (g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dekarbonizasyon taahh\u00fctleri), Hindistan %33 art\u0131\u015f (end\u00fcstriyel geli\u015fme).<\/p>\n<p>Bu a\u00e7\u0131k emisyon projeksiyonlar\u0131, 2025 raporunun iklim ger\u00e7eklikleriyle daha do\u011frudan y\u00fczle\u015fti\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. 2019 raporu dekarbonizasyon politikalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ima etse de, 2025 raporu bu ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nicelendirir ve b\u00f6lgesel sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 detayland\u0131r\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>4. Projeksiyon Farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n Nedenleri<\/p>\n<p>4.1. Ger\u00e7ek D\u00fcnya Geli\u015fmeleri<\/p>\n<p>2019 ve 2025 projeksiyonlar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klar, be\u015f y\u0131lda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen somut geli\u015fmeleri yans\u0131t\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>COVID-19 Pandemisi: Pandemi, ekonomik aktivitede ge\u00e7ici ancak \u00f6nemli bir kesintiye ve uzaktan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, dijitalle\u015fme ve tedarik zinciri yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131 gibi kal\u0131c\u0131 davran\u0131\u015fsal de\u011fi\u015fikliklere yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Bu de\u011fi\u015fiklikler enerji talebini etkiledi ve baz\u0131lar\u0131 tahmin edilenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 verimlilik kazan\u0131mlar\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu.<\/li>\n<li>Enerji Krizleri: 2021-2022 enerji krizleri, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa&#8217;da, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirme konusunda yenilenen vurguya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131ndaki volatilite, politika \u00f6nceliklerini ve yat\u0131r\u0131m modellerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi.<\/li>\n<li>Yenilenebilir Maliyet D\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri: G\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczg\u00e2r teknolojilerindeki maliyet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri, 2019 projeksiyonlar\u0131nda beklenenlerden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti, bu da daha h\u0131zl\u0131 benimsenmeyi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131ld\u0131. Fakat depolama teknolojilerindeki maliyet d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri yeterli olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in, bu yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir baz y\u00fck ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilmeleri konusundaki soru i\u015faretlerini peki\u015ftirdi.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li>N\u00fckleer R\u00f6nesans: N\u00fckleer enerjiye olan ilgi, iklim hedefleri, enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi kayg\u0131lar\u0131 ve K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Mod\u00fcler Reakt\u00f6r (SMR) teknolojisindeki geli\u015fmeler taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilerek yeniden canland\u0131. Bu yenilenen ilgi, 2019&#8217;daki n\u00fckleer beklentilere k\u0131yasla 2025&#8217;teki daha iyimser n\u00fckleer projeksiyonlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klar.<\/li>\n<li>E-Mobilite: 2018 de 2.1 milyon olan trafi\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kan elektrikli ara\u00e7 say\u0131s\u0131 2024 de 17 milyona ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 6 y\u0131lda %2\u2019den %18 lik paya ula\u015fmas\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck pay devletlerin uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 vergi te\u015fvikleri olmu\u015ftur. Elektrikli ara\u00e7lar\u0131n do\u011frudan rejenerasyon sistemleri sayesinde elde etti\u011fi verimlili\u011fin di\u011fer t\u00fcm ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131kta yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131 enerji talebinde azalmay\u0131 sa\u011flayan bir unsurdur.<\/li>\n<li>Enerji Verimlili\u011fi: Y\u00fcksek verimli elektrikli motorlar, led ayd\u0131nlatma, yal\u0131t\u0131m teknolojilerinin ve end\u00fcstrilerinin geli\u015fmesi ve ucuzlamas\u0131, desteklenmesi, finansal alanda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k bulmas\u0131 ve yeni tesislerde projelendirme a\u015famas\u0131nda uygulamalar\u0131n\u0131n yayg\u0131nla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getirmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>4.2. Metodolojik Geli\u015fmeler<\/p>\n<p>Projeksiyon farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 geli\u015fmi\u015f metodolojiden kaynaklan\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Geli\u015fmi\u015f Hesaplama G\u00fcc\u00fc: Yapay zeka destekli analizler, daha b\u00fcy\u00fck veri setlerinin i\u015flenmesine ve daha karma\u015f\u0131k etkile\u015fimlerin modellenmesine olanak tan\u0131r. Bu, \u00f6zellikle b\u00f6lgesel farkl\u0131la\u015fmalar\u0131n ve sekt\u00f6rel dinamiklerin daha hassas yakalanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7ar.<\/li>\n<li>Sekt\u00f6rel Detay: 2025&#8217;in elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ayr\u0131 odaklanmas\u0131, 2019&#8217;un toplam enerji yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131nda g\u00f6zden ka\u00e7\u0131r\u0131labilecek dinamikleri yakalar. Elektrikle\u015fme trendleri, \u015febeke modernizasyonu ve elektrik \u00fcretimindeki teknolojik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, birincil enerji t\u00fcketim desenleriyle m\u00fckemmel \u015fekilde korelasyon g\u00f6stermez.<\/li>\n<li>Do\u011frulama ve Kalibrasyon: 2019 projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 ger\u00e7ek 2020-2024 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131yla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma f\u0131rsat\u0131, model kalibrasyonu i\u00e7in izin verir. TESPAM, ilk projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015funkinden daha tutarl\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtir; bu, temel metodolojik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 do\u011frular.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>4.3. De\u011fi\u015fen Jeopolitik Ba\u011flam<\/p>\n<p>2025 raporu, 2019 raporunda daha az belirgin olan jeopolitik fakt\u00f6rleri a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a entegre eder:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ABD-\u00c7in Rekabeti: B\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7 rekabeti enerji politikalar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fekillendirmektedir. ABD&#8217;nin kritik mineraller ve tedarik zincirleri \u00fczerindeki \u00c7in hakimiyetine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri, politika \u00f6nceliklerini de\u011fi\u015ftirdi ve baz\u0131 iklim taahh\u00fctlerini zay\u0131flatt\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>Paris Anla\u015fmas\u0131&#8217;ndan Uzakla\u015fma: Trump y\u00f6netiminin enerji politikalar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fiklikler ve uluslararas\u0131 iklim i\u015fbirli\u011finden uzakla\u015fma, enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in azalan politik ivmeyi yans\u0131t\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Enerji G\u00fcvenli\u011fi Vurgusu: Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve enerji silahland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterilmesi, politika \u00f6nceliklerini saf dekarbonizasyondan enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmeyi i\u00e7erecek \u015fekilde geni\u015fletti.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>5. Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 Analizin \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar\u0131<\/p>\n<p>5.1. Metodolojik Ge\u00e7erlilik<\/p>\n<p>2019 projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n 2025 g\u00fcncellemesinde gerekli olan revizyonlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 do\u011fas\u0131, temel metodolojik yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n sa\u011flaml\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 do\u011frular. %91&#8217;den %74&#8217;e toplam enerji b\u00fcy\u00fcmesindeki azalma \u00f6nemli olmakla birlikte, temel dinamiklerin &#8211; demografik art\u0131\u015f, gelir etkisi, teknoloji yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 &#8211; ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini g\u00f6sterir. Her iki rapor da:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6nemli enerji talebi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 projeksiyonu (2019: %91, 2025: %74)<\/li>\n<li>Fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131n y\u00fczy\u0131l boyunca devam eden \u00f6nemi<\/li>\n<li>Yenilenebilir kaynaklar\u0131n \u00f6nemli b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ancak kademeli d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm<\/li>\n<li>Net-s\u0131f\u0131r hedeflerine ula\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131<\/li>\n<li>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta gelirli \u00fclkelerin gelece\u011fi \u015fekillendirmedeki kritik rol\u00fc<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu tutarl\u0131l\u0131k, TESPAM&#8217;\u0131n demografik temelli, sosyoekonomik olarak temellendirilen yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n, iklim hedefi merkezli senaryolardan daha g\u00fcvenilir \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 arg\u00fcman\u0131n\u0131 destekler.<\/p>\n<p>5.2. N\u00fckleer Enerjinin Evrimle\u015fen Rol\u00fc<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ki rapor aras\u0131ndaki en \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131 farkl\u0131l\u0131klardan biri, n\u00fckleer enerjiye ili\u015fkin projeksiyonlard\u0131r. 2019\u2019un %2.21\u2019den %2-3\u2019e m\u00fctevazi b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinden, 2025\u2019in %4.1\u2019den %22.4\u2019e dramatik y\u00fckseli\u015f ve bask\u0131n enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne ge\u00e7i\u015f, birka\u00e7 geli\u015fmeyi yans\u0131t\u0131r. Tablo 2\u2019ye g\u00f6re, n\u00fckleer enerjinin 2050\u2019de %14.2, 2100\u2019de ise %22.4 paya ula\u015fmas\u0131 beklenmektedir. Bu be\u015f kattan fazla art\u0131\u015f, enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcnde n\u00fckleer teknolojinin merkezile\u015fmesini i\u015faret etmektedir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Teknolojik \u0130lerleme: K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck Mod\u00fcler Reakt\u00f6rler (SMR&#8217;ler) ve mikro reakt\u00f6rler, n\u00fckleer enerjinin maliyet profilini ve da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m esnekli\u011fini d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrmektedir. Bu teknolojiler, geleneksel b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli reakt\u00f6rlerin finansal ve siyasi engellerinden ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131rken, g\u00fcvenilir temel y\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fc sa\u011flar.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130klim \u0130mperatifleri: Dekarbonizasyon hedeflerine ula\u015fman\u0131n zorlu\u011funun fark\u0131ndal\u0131\u011f\u0131, intermittent yenilenebilir kaynaklardan daha g\u00fcvenilir s\u0131f\u0131r-karbon g\u00fc\u00e7 sa\u011flayan n\u00fckleer enerjiye yeniden ilgi uyand\u0131rd\u0131.<\/li>\n<li>Enerji G\u00fcvenli\u011fi: Jeopolitik belirsizlik ve enerji silahland\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6sterilmesi, yerli yak\u0131t kaynaklar\u0131na dayanan ve uzun yak\u0131t d\u00f6ng\u00fcleriyle uzun vadeli enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sa\u011flayan n\u00fckleer enerjinin cazibesini art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>2025 raporunun n\u00fckleer bask\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131 projeksiyonu, belki de a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 iyimser g\u00f6r\u00fcnse de, trendler bu y\u00f6ndedir. \u00c7in&#8217;in agresif n\u00fckleer in\u015fa program\u0131, Avrupa&#8217;n\u0131n ve Japonya&#8217;n\u0131n n\u00fckleer enerjiye yeniden ba\u011flanmas\u0131 ve geli\u015fmi\u015f reakt\u00f6r teknolojilerindeki ilerleme, 2019&#8217;un konservatif n\u00fckleer projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k yetersiz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<p>5.3. \u0130klim Hedefleri ile Ger\u00e7ekli\u011fin Kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131<\/p>\n<p>2025 raporunun a\u00e7\u0131k karbon emisyon projeksiyonlar\u0131 (%23 azalma, net-s\u0131f\u0131ra ula\u015f\u0131lamama), uluslararas\u0131 iklim hedefleri ile olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar aras\u0131ndaki bo\u015flu\u011fu keskin bir \u015fekilde ortaya koymaktad\u0131r. Bu d\u00fcr\u00fcstl\u00fck hem entelekt\u00fcel d\u00fcr\u00fcstl\u00fck hem de politika yararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan de\u011ferlidir:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i Beklentiler: Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ula\u015f\u0131lamaz hedefler yerine olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar i\u00e7in plan yapmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar.<\/li>\n<li>Adaptasyonun Vurgulanmas\u0131: Net-s\u0131f\u0131ra ula\u015f\u0131lamamas\u0131 muhtemel oldu\u011fundan, iklim adaptasyon stratejilerine daha fazla vurgu yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini g\u00f6sterir.<\/li>\n<li>Finansman \u00d6nceliklendirmesi: Emisyon azalt\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in finansman\u0131n en etkili olaca\u011f\u0131 yerleri (\u00f6rne\u011fin, Hindistan&#8217;\u0131n k\u00f6m\u00fcrden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 desteklemek) belirlemeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00c7in&#8217;in %71&#8217;lik azalma ve Hindistan&#8217;\u0131n %33&#8217;l\u00fck art\u0131\u015f aras\u0131ndaki b\u00f6lgesel farkl\u0131la\u015fma, geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131 sorumluluklara ve yeteneklere i\u015faret eder. Bu farkl\u0131la\u015fma, uluslararas\u0131 iklim m\u00fczakerelerinde merkezi bir mesele olan, geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi iklim taahh\u00fctleriyle dengelemelerinin zorlu\u011funu vurgular.<\/p>\n<p>5.4. Petrol End\u00fcstrisi \u0130\u00e7in \u00c7\u0131kar\u0131mlar<\/p>\n<p>Her iki rapor da petrol t\u00fcketiminin azalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak y\u00fczy\u0131l boyunca \u00f6nemli kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 projeksiyon eder, ancak farkl\u0131 y\u00f6r\u00fcngelerle. Tablo 1\u2019e g\u00f6re 2019 raporu, petrol\u00fcn %30.79\u2019den %21.39\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ferek 2100\u2019de \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131raya gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmektedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, Tablo 2\u2019ye g\u00f6re 2025 raporu daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir azalma projeksiyon etmekte ve petrol\u00fcn %31.5\u2019ten %24.9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ferek y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda ikinci s\u0131rada kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmektedir. Bu revizyon, ula\u015f\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki elektrifikasyonun beklenenden daha yava\u015f ilerleyece\u011fi ve petrokimya kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha diren\u00e7li olaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f de\u011ferlendirmeyi yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Petrol end\u00fcstrisi payda\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in bu, ani \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f yerine kademeli ge\u00e7i\u015f anlam\u0131na gelir. Petrokimya hammadde talebi, ula\u015f\u0131mdan daha diren\u00e7li kalacak ve petrol t\u00fcketimi i\u00e7in dayan\u0131kl\u0131 bir taban sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Ancak end\u00fcstri, d\u00fc\u015fen pazar pay\u0131na, volatil fiyatlara ve geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde artan d\u00fczenlemelere uyum sa\u011flamal\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>6. Sonu\u00e7: Rasyonel Projeksiyonlar\u0131n De\u011feri<\/p>\n<p>TESPAM&#8217;\u0131n 2019 ve 2025 K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc raporlar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analizi, demografik temelli, sosyoekonomik olarak grounded projeksiyon metodolojisinin de\u011ferini do\u011frular. Ge\u00e7en be\u015f y\u0131l\u0131n geli\u015fmeleri, bu yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n temel \u00f6nc\u00fcllerini do\u011frulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Enerji talebi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ve orta gelirli n\u00fcfuslar\u0131n demografik a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen t\u00fcketim istekleri taraf\u0131ndan y\u00f6nlendirilmeye devam etmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Fosil yak\u0131tlar y\u00fczy\u0131l boyunca \u00f6nemli kalacak, azalan ancak \u00f6nemli bir rol oynayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc kademeli olacak, iklim hedefi merkezli senaryolar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funun varsayd\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmden daha yava\u015f.<\/li>\n<li>Net-s\u0131f\u0131r hedeflerine ula\u015fmak olas\u0131 de\u011fildir; daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i beklentiler gereklidir.<\/li>\n<li>B\u00f6lgesel farkl\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nemlidir; tek boyutlu k\u00fcresel yakla\u015f\u0131mlar yetersizdir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Ayn\u0131 zamanda, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r. 2025 raporunun n\u00fckleer enerjiye daha iyimser yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 (%4.1\u2019den %22.4\u2019e y\u00fckseli\u015f projeksiyonu), teknolojik ilerlemeyi ve de\u011fi\u015fen politika \u00f6nceliklerini yans\u0131t\u0131r. Buna paralel olarak, do\u011falgaz\u0131n 2019 raporunda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen bask\u0131n konumundan (%38.85) 2025\u2019te \u00e7ok daha m\u00fctevazi bir role (%14.8) gerilemesi, enerji d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki temel de\u011fi\u015fimi g\u00f6stermektedir. Yenilenebilir enerjinin beklenen pay\u0131ndaki revizyonlar da dikkat \u00e7ekicidir: 2019\u2019da %37.21 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, 2025 raporu %23.9 projeksiyon etmektedir. Bu, yenilenebilir teknolojilerin yayg\u0131nla\u015fma h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta tahmin edilenden daha yava\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131 ve temiz enerji ge\u00e7i\u015finde n\u00fckleer enerjinin daha merkezi rol \u00fcstlenece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki g\u00fcncellenmi\u015f de\u011ferlendirmeyi yans\u0131tmaktad\u0131r. Elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne odaklanmas\u0131, ana de\u011fi\u015fim vekt\u00f6r\u00fc olarak elektrikle\u015fmenin artan \u00f6nemini tan\u0131r. A\u00e7\u0131k emisyon projeksiyonlar\u0131, iklim ger\u00e7eklikleriyle d\u00fcr\u00fcst y\u00fczle\u015fmeyi temsil eder.<\/p>\n<p>Politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar i\u00e7in mesaj a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r: rasyonel, ampirik temelli projeksiyonlar, iklim hedeflerinden geriye do\u011fru \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan aspirasyonel senaryolardan daha g\u00fcvenilir planlama ara\u00e7lar\u0131 sa\u011flar. TESPAM yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi gibi de\u011fil, oldu\u011fu ve muhtemelen evrimle\u015fece\u011fi gibi modeller. Bu metodolojik al\u00e7akg\u00f6n\u00fcll\u00fcl\u00fck, tutarl\u0131 politika yap\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in esast\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Enerji end\u00fcstrisi payda\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma stratejik sab\u0131r\u0131n mesaj\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirir. Fosil yak\u0131t varl\u0131klar\u0131 ani de\u011fer kayb\u0131na u\u011framayacak; ancak kademeli ge\u00e7i\u015fe uyum sa\u011flamak gereklidir. Petrol, 2019 raporunda \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen %21.39 yerine 2025 raporunda %24.9 ile daha diren\u00e7li bir seyir izleyecek ve y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda ikinci s\u0131rada kalacakt\u0131r. Do\u011falgaz ise beklenen bask\u0131nl\u0131\u011fa ula\u015famayacak ve %38.85 yerine %14.8 ile daha m\u00fctevazi bir role sahip olacakt\u0131r. N\u00fckleer enerji, 2019\u2019da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen m\u00fctevazi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden (%2-3) \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir role (%22.4) y\u00fckselerek, iklim ve g\u00fcvenlik hedeflerine hizmet eden uzun vadeli f\u0131rsatlar sunmaktad\u0131r. Yenilenebilir kaynaklar b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye devam edecek ancak 2019\u2019da beklenen %37.21 yerine %23.9 ile daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir paya ula\u015facak ve fosil yak\u0131tlar\u0131 y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ortalar\u0131ndan \u00f6nce tamamen yerinden etmeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Akademik topluluk i\u00e7in, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma belirli bir enerji projeksiyonu setinden daha geni\u015f metodolojik dersler sunar. Demografik katmanl\u0131 analiz, gelir-a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 etki metrikleri, davran\u0131\u015fsal ger\u00e7ek\u00e7ilik ve jeopolitik fakt\u00f6r entegrasyonunun de\u011feri, enerji modellemesinin \u00f6tesinde alanlara uzan\u0131r. TESPAM yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, k\u00fcresel gelecekleri projeksiyon etmeye y\u00f6nelik daha genel olarak sosyal olarak temellendirilen, normatif de\u011fil pozitivist metodoloji i\u00e7in bir model sa\u011flar.<\/p>\n<p>\u0130leriye bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, TESPAM&#8217;\u0131n 2030 raporunun beklenmesi, bu kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 analizde belirlenen trendlerin do\u011frulanmas\u0131 veya daha fazla revizyonu i\u00e7in f\u0131rsatlar yaratacakt\u0131r. S\u00fcrekli metodolojik iyile\u015ftirme, ger\u00e7ek sonu\u00e7lara g\u00f6re kalibrasyon ve de\u011fi\u015fen ko\u015fullara uyum, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 boyunca enerji projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferini korumak i\u00e7in gerekli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>K\u00fcresel enerji ge\u00e7i\u015fi devam ederken, TESPAM&#8217;\u0131n rasyonel, sosyoekonomik olarak temellendirilen yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131, muhtemel yollar\u0131 anlamak i\u00e7in vazge\u00e7ilmez bir ara\u00e7 olarak kal\u0131yor. Aspirasyonel hedefleri ger\u00e7ek olas\u0131l\u0131klarla dengeleyerek, bu metodoloji etkili politika yap\u0131m\u0131n\u0131, bilgili yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ve ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i iklim stratejilerini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lar. Enerji gelece\u011fi belirsizli\u011fini korurken, rasyonel projeksiyonlar\u0131n de\u011feri hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kadar a\u00e7\u0131kt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Kaynaklar<\/p>\n<p>TESPAM. (2019). K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100. Ankara: TESPAM Yay\u0131nevi.<\/p>\n<p>TESPAM. (2025). K\u00fcresel Enerji G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc 2100 (2. Bask\u0131). Ankara: TESPAM Teknoloji ve Yaz\u0131l\u0131m A.\u015e. ISBN: 978-625-95113-5-1.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130: 2019 VE 2025 K\u00dcRESEL ENERJ\u0130 G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcM\u00dc RAPORLARININ METODOLOJ\u0130K VE BULGUSAL \u0130NCELEMES\u0130 \u00d6zet Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, TESPAM (T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi) taraf\u0131ndan 2019 ve 2025&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":95,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[1087,552,898,1095,872,1089,252,1170,204,989,1098,988,253,142,106,2011,265,117,879,254,255],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[2064],"class_list":["post-4280462657","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-analizler","category-akeb","category-bultenler","category-ekonomi-finans-marketler-deger-zincirleri","category-elektrik","category-enerji-turune-gore","category-gunes","category-haftalik-enerji-piyasalari-bulteni","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari","category-hidrojen","category-hukuk","category-iklim-cevre","category-jeotermal","category-komur","category-kose-yazilari","category-nukleer-enerji-turune-gore","category-periyodik-bolge-raporlari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-politika-diplomasi-ihtilaflar-guvenlik","category-ruzgar","category-su-kaynakli"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130: 2019 VE 2025 K\u00dcRESEL ENERJ\u0130 G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcM\u00dc RAPORLARININ METODOLOJ\u0130K VE BULGUSAL \u0130NCELEMES\u0130 \u00d6zet Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, TESPAM (T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi) taraf\u0131ndan 2019 ve 2025...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tespam\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-02-12T22:35:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-08-07T19:14:35+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ali Murat Becerikli\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@tespam_\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@tespam_\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Yazan:\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ali Murat Becerikli\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"19 dakika\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Ali Murat Becerikli\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/be82b39966cea00e7e72078d5f536770\"},\"headline\":\"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-12T22:35:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-08-07T19:14:35+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":4450,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#organization\"},\"articleSection\":[\"Analizler\",\"Ayl\u0131k K\u00fcresel Enerji B\u00fclteni\",\"B\u00fcltenler\",\"Ekonomi-Finans-Piyasalar-De\u011fer Zincirleri\",\"Elektrik\",\"Enerji T\u00fcr\u00fcne G\u00f6re\",\"G\u00fcne\u015f\",\"Haftal\u0131k Enerji Piyasalar\u0131 B\u00fclteni\",\"Haftal\u0131k Petrol Piyasas\u0131 B\u00fcltenleri\",\"Hidrojen\",\"Hukuk\",\"\u0130klim-Enerji D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc-\u00c7evre\",\"Jeotermal\",\"K\u00f6m\u00fcr\",\"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131lar\u0131\",\"N\u00fckleer\",\"Periyodik B\u00f6lge B\u00fcltenleri\",\"Petrol ve Do\u011falgaz\",\"Politika-Diplomasi-\u0130htilaflar-G\u00fcvenlik\",\"R\u00fczgar\",\"Su Kaynakl\u0131 - Hidro\"],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/\",\"name\":\"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-02-12T22:35:38+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-08-07T19:14:35+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/\",\"name\":\"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\",\"description\":\"\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"TESPAM\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"tr\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/tespam.org\\\/tr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/TespamLogoNKVersion.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/tespam.org\\\/tr\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2022\\\/11\\\/TespamLogoNKVersion.png\",\"width\":2065,\"height\":1731,\"caption\":\"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.facebook.com\\\/tespam\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/tespam_\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/tespam_\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/c\\\/TvEnerji\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/tespam\\\/\"]},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/be82b39966cea00e7e72078d5f536770\",\"name\":\"Ali Murat Becerikli\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"tr\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g23494c9101089ad44ae88ce9d2f56aac\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"Ali Murat Becerikli\"},\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tespam.org\\\/wordpress\\\/author\\\/ali-murat-becerikli\\\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/","og_locale":"tr_TR","og_type":"article","og_title":"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi","og_description":"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130: 2019 VE 2025 K\u00dcRESEL ENERJ\u0130 G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcM\u00dc RAPORLARININ METODOLOJ\u0130K VE BULGUSAL \u0130NCELEMES\u0130 \u00d6zet Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, TESPAM (T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Merkezi) taraf\u0131ndan 2019 ve 2025...","og_url":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/","og_site_name":"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tespam","article_published_time":"2026-02-12T22:35:38+00:00","article_modified_time":"2026-08-07T19:14:35+00:00","author":"Ali Murat Becerikli","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@tespam_","twitter_site":"@tespam_","twitter_misc":{"Yazan:":"Ali Murat Becerikli","Tahmini okuma s\u00fcresi":"19 dakika"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/"},"author":{"name":"Ali Murat Becerikli","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/be82b39966cea00e7e72078d5f536770"},"headline":"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130","datePublished":"2026-02-12T22:35:38+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-07T19:14:35+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/"},"wordCount":4450,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#organization"},"articleSection":["Analizler","Ayl\u0131k K\u00fcresel Enerji B\u00fclteni","B\u00fcltenler","Ekonomi-Finans-Piyasalar-De\u011fer Zincirleri","Elektrik","Enerji T\u00fcr\u00fcne G\u00f6re","G\u00fcne\u015f","Haftal\u0131k Enerji Piyasalar\u0131 B\u00fclteni","Haftal\u0131k Petrol Piyasas\u0131 B\u00fcltenleri","Hidrojen","Hukuk","\u0130klim-Enerji D\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fc-\u00c7evre","Jeotermal","K\u00f6m\u00fcr","K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131lar\u0131","N\u00fckleer","Periyodik B\u00f6lge B\u00fcltenleri","Petrol ve Do\u011falgaz","Politika-Diplomasi-\u0130htilaflar-G\u00fcvenlik","R\u00fczgar","Su Kaynakl\u0131 - Hidro"],"inLanguage":"tr"},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/","url":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/","name":"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-02-12T22:35:38+00:00","dateModified":"2026-08-07T19:14:35+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"tr","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/tespam-enerji-projeksiyonlarinin-karsilastirmali-analizi\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"TESPAM ENERJ\u0130 PROJEKS\u0130YONLARININ KAR\u015eILA\u015eTIRMALI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/","name":"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi","description":"","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#organization"},"alternateName":"TESPAM","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"tr"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#organization","name":"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi","url":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"tr","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/TespamLogoNKVersion.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/TespamLogoNKVersion.png","width":2065,"height":1731,"caption":"T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tespam","https:\/\/x.com\/tespam_","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/tespam_\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/c\/TvEnerji","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/tespam\/"]},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/#\/schema\/person\/be82b39966cea00e7e72078d5f536770","name":"Ali Murat Becerikli","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"tr","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g23494c9101089ad44ae88ce9d2f56aac","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"Ali Murat Becerikli"},"url":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/author\/ali-murat-becerikli\/"}]}},"authors":[{"term_id":2064,"user_id":95,"is_guest":0,"slug":"ali-murat-becerikli","display_name":"Ali Murat Becerikli","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/?s=96&d=mm&r=g","author_category":"","first_name":"","last_name":"","user_url":"","job_title":"","description":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4280462657","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/95"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4280462657"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4280462657\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4280462658,"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4280462657\/revisions\/4280462658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4280462657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4280462657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4280462657"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=4280462657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}