{"id":4409,"date":"2017-02-19T21:02:43","date_gmt":"2017-02-19T18:02:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=4409"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:18","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:18","slug":"yenilenebilir-enerji-gelecegin-en-onemli-enerji-kaynagi-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/yenilenebilir-enerji-gelecegin-en-onemli-enerji-kaynagi-mi\/","title":{"rendered":"Yenilenebilir Enerji Gelece\u011fin En \u00d6nemli Enerji Kayna\u011f\u0131 M\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #008080;\">Avrupa\u2019da ba\u015flayan yenilenebilir enerji ata\u011f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyaya h\u0131zla yay\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ivmeyle artan enerji taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in adeta sava\u015f veren \u00fclkelerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, Suudi Arabistan gibi petrol zengini \u00fclkelerin dahi yenilenebilir enerjiye y\u00f6nelik projeleri ve orta vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131m planlar\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peki yenilenebilir enerjiye y\u00f6nelimin sebepleri nelerdir?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yenilebilir ger\u00e7ekten de en \u00f6nemli enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 m\u0131 olacakt\u0131r?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Asl\u0131nda yenilenebilir enerji; temiz ve \u00e7evreci olu\u015fu, kendisini s\u00fcrekli yenileyen ve t\u00fckenmeyen s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir potansiyele sahip olu\u015fu, ilk yat\u0131r\u0131m sonras\u0131nda nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan i\u015fletme giderleri ve k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n dahi giri\u015fim sa\u011flayabilece\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi ile kolay yayg\u0131nla\u015fabilecek olu\u015fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde avantajl\u0131 bir kaynak olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecektir. Bunlarla birlikte (her ne kadar geli\u015fen teknolojiler ile azalsa da) hala y\u00fcksek say\u0131labilen yat\u0131r\u0131m maliyetleri ve uzun geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreleri, hen\u00fcz yeterince yayg\u0131nla\u015fmam\u0131\u015f teknolojik ve yasal altyap\u0131lar\u0131, makro boyutta verimlili\u011finin fosil kaynaklara nazaran \u00e7ok daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olu\u015fu gibi sebepler neticesinde, yenilebilir enerjinin hi\u00e7 bir zaman en \u00f6nemli kaynak olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve orta vadede de olamayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. \u00d6zellikle yenilenebilir y\u00f6nelimin merkezi olan Avrupa\u2019daki, neredeyse elektrik ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 bu kaynaklardan \u00fcreten \u00fclkelerin dahi fosil yak\u0131tlara olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi daha net ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Peki maliyetler daha da d\u00fc\u015ferse senaryo de\u011fi\u015fecek midir?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Maliyetlerin son y\u0131llarda ne kadar azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bundan sonra nas\u0131l de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fi konusunda, en yayg\u0131n yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131 olan g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgar i\u00e7in \u201cbloomberg\u201dde yay\u0131nlanan iki grafik incelendi\u011finde:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4411\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/yenilenebilr.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"829\" height=\"507\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>Grafik1: G\u00fcne\u015ften Elektrik \u00dcretim Maliyetleri Kapsam\u0131nda \u0130lgili Kalemlerdeki De\u011fi\u015fimler (Kaynak: Bloomberg)<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130lk grafikten g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere, g\u00fcne\u015f \u00e7evrim santrali kurulumunun farkl\u0131 kalemlerindeki maliyetler \u00f6nemli oranda azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. 2017 ve sonras\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 2015 \u2013 2016 aras\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc varsay\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Fakat bu varsay\u0131m\u0131n da, ikame enerji t\u00fcrlerinin maliyetleri, enflasyon oranlar\u0131, k\u00fcresel ekonomik etkenler sebebi ile g\u00fcncellenmesi faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc son bir y\u0131ll\u0131k oran\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi konusunda \u015f\u00fcpheler olacakt\u0131r. Yine de g\u00fcne\u015f \u00e7evrim santrallerindeki farkl\u0131 kalemlerin birim maliyetlerinin bu oranlarda olmasa da, azalmaya devam etti\u011fi bilinmektedir. Ve edece\u011fi de beklenecektir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130lk grafikteki yakla\u015f\u0131m da dikkate al\u0131narak, haz\u0131rlanan ikinci grafik a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-4412\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/yenilenebilr2jpg.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"737\" height=\"414\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>Grafik 2: G\u00fcne\u015f, R\u00fczgar, Gaz T\u00fcrbini ve K\u00f6m\u00fcrden Birim Elektrik \u00dcretim Maliyetleri (Kaynak:Bloomberg)<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u0130kinci grafikten de anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>2009\u2019larda \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek olan g\u00fcne\u015ften elektrik \u00fcretim maliyeti, geli\u015fen ve yayg\u0131nla\u015fan teknoloji sayesinde ciddi oranda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>G\u00fcne\u015fteki oranlarda olmasa da, r\u00fczgardan elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetleri de d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li>G\u00fcne\u015ften elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin 2020\u2019lerde do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerini, 2024\u2019lerde de k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerini yakalayaca\u011f\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde r\u00fczgardan elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin 2014\u2019lerde do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerini yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2019\u2019larda da k\u00f6m\u00fcrden elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerini yakalayaca\u011f\u0131 beklenmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Yani elektrik \u00fcretiminde 2024 sonras\u0131nda hem r\u00fczgar hem de g\u00fcne\u015f santrallerinin k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve do\u011falgaza nazaran ekonomik olarak avantajl\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Fakat yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlarda,\n<ul>\n<li>K\u00f6m\u00fcr ve do\u011falgazdan elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan etkilenecek \u015fekilde, belli bir e\u011filimde art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi,<\/li>\n<li>G\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgardan elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin ise 2015-2016 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki orandan daha az olacak \u015fekilde sabit bir trendle azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131lm\u0131\u015f gibi g\u00f6z\u00fckmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Yani bu grafik zamanla de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6sterecek ve belki beklenilen oranlar da yakalanmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ankonvansiyonel kaynaklar\u0131n fiyatlara etkisi ve hem k\u00f6m\u00fcr hem de do\u011falgaz \u00e7evrim santrallerine y\u00f6nelik yeni teknolojiler ile verimin artt\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 neticesinde, grafikte ifade edilen analizlerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeme ihtimali de s\u00f6z konusudur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Grafiklerde tahmin edilen projeksiyonlar\u0131n tutarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131larak, yenilebilir enerjiden elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetlerinin k\u00f6m\u00fcr ve do\u011falgazdan \u00e7ok daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 seviyelere inmesi durumunda, uygun teknik ve yasal zeminler de sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 varsay\u0131l\u0131r ise, elektrik \u00fcretimi i\u00e7in yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n tercih edilece\u011fi tahmin edilebilecektir. Tabii bu noktada, ilgili durum baz\u0131 b\u00f6lgeler i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olacak, b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya i\u00e7in ayn\u0131 beklentiler ger\u00e7ekle\u015femeyecektir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, kaynak potansiyeli, yasal ve hukuki altyap\u0131lar, devlet te\u015fvikleri, alternatif kaynaklar\u0131n ilgili b\u00f6lgedeki maliyetleri durumun lokal olarak de\u011fi\u015fmesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir. T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n da yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, hali haz\u0131rda faaliyetine devam eden di\u011fer kaynaklarla \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan tesisler i\u00e7in birim maliyetler farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterece\u011finden, ilgili tahminler, yeni yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu yakla\u015f\u0131m neticesinde g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere, g\u00fcne\u015f ve r\u00fczgardan birim elektrik \u00fcretim maliyetleri di\u011fer kaynaklardan elde edilecek \u00fcretimlerin alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fse dahi, bu durum b\u00f6lgeden b\u00f6lgeye farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterecek ve co\u011funlukla yeni yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyecektir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bunlar ile birlikte, d\u00fcnya enerji denkleminde elektrik \u00f6nemli t\u00fcketim kalemlerinden sadece bir tanesidir. Yani elektri\u011fin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ula\u015f\u0131m, \u0131s\u0131tma ve sanayi alanlar\u0131ndaki t\u00fcketimlerin de genel denklemdeki yerlerinin incelenmesi gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Bu kapsamda Exxon Mobile taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan, \u201c2017 Outlook For Energy\u201d raporunda yer alan bir grafik incelendi\u011finde,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-4413 \" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/yenilenebilr3g.jpg\" width=\"550\" height=\"514\" \/><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>Grafik 3: Sekt\u00f6rlere G\u00f6re Enerji T\u00fcketim Projeksiyonu: 2015-2025-2040 (Kaynak: Exxon)<\/em><\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>Konut d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki t\u00fcm alanlardaki t\u00fcketimler \u00f6nemli oranda artacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>En b\u00fcy\u00fck art\u0131\u015f elektrik t\u00fcketiminde g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Elektrik t\u00fcketimindeki art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda do\u011falgaz, yenilebilir ve n\u00fckleer \u00e7evrim santrallerindeki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131lanacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Yenilenebilirin ula\u015f\u0131m ve konut alanlar\u0131ndaki t\u00fcketimdeki pay\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olarak kalmaya devam edecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Elektrik t\u00fcketiminde ise yenilebilir enerji 4. s\u0131rada \u00f6nemli kaynak olmaya devam edecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">\u00d6zetle, yenilebilir enerji kaynaklar\u0131na k\u00fcresel y\u00f6nelimin sebebi, kaynaklarda yerlile\u015fme ve \u00e7e\u015fitlili\u011fin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecektir. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, yenilenebilirin en \u00f6nemli enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 tarz\u0131ndaki s\u00f6ylemler de ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Stratejik a\u00e7\u0131dan yakla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise, d\u00fc\u015fen maliyetleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6zellikle yerli fosil kaynaklara sahip olmayan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in yenilenebilir yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u00e7ok \u00f6nemlidir. Bunun da yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, yenilenebilir enerji teknolojilerine sahip olmak, b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olabilecektir. Fakat fosil kaynaklara sahip olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikler do\u011fal olark farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6sterecektir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Avrupa\u2019da ba\u015flayan yenilenebilir enerji ata\u011f\u0131 b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyaya h\u0131zla yay\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ivmeyle artan enerji taleplerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in adeta sava\u015f veren \u00fclkelerin\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":4410,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[114,461,138,154],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-4409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-oguzhan-akyener","tag-tes","tag-tespam-enerji","tag-yenilenebilir-enerji"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Yenilenebilir Enerji Gelece\u011fin En \u00d6nemli Enerji Kayna\u011f\u0131 M\u0131? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/yenilenebilir-enerji-gelecegin-en-onemli-enerji-kaynagi-mi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Yenilenebilir Enerji Gelece\u011fin En \u00d6nemli Enerji Kayna\u011f\u0131 M\u0131? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"&nbsp; Avrupa\u2019da ba\u015flayan yenilenebilir enerji ata\u011f\u0131 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