{"id":4896,"date":"2017-05-09T12:23:56","date_gmt":"2017-05-09T09:23:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=4896"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:16","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:16","slug":"israilin-dillendirilmeyen-plani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/israilin-dillendirilmeyen-plani\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130srail&#039;in Dillendirilmeyen Plan\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #008080;\">Uzun s\u00fcredir TESPAM b\u00fcnyesinde dillendirildi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u0130srail\u2019in t\u00fcketim ve ke\u015ffedilen sahalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim projeksiyonlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ciddi miktarda bir ihracat potansiyeli bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Bu dengeleri ancak yeni b\u00fcy\u00fck ke\u015fifler ya da ithalat yaparak, fazladan ihracat kapasitesi olu\u015fturmak de\u011fi\u015ftirecektir.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Peki ortada yoruma kat\u0131labilecek yeni ke\u015fifler ile ilgili hi\u00e7 bir somut veri olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u0130srail\u2019in \u0131srar ile \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ihracat potansiyeli varm\u0131\u015f, bunu da birka\u00e7 y\u0131la kadar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye satacakm\u0131\u015f gibi s\u00f6ylemlerde bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n sebebi nedir?<\/p>\n<p>Yeni ke\u015fif ihtimalleri somut olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, bu soruya ancak iki t\u00fcrl\u00fc cevap verilebilecektir.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130srail ihracat kapasitesini artt\u0131rmak maksatl\u0131 ithalat yapacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bu s\u00f6ylemler tamamen alg\u0131 operasyonu ama\u00e7l\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Alg\u0131 opsiyonunu bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131rsak, \u0130srail\u2019in bu s\u00f6ylemlerini tutarl\u0131 k\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in geriye kalan tek plan\u0131 ithalat yapmak olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Peki ithalat\u0131 nereden ve nas\u0131l yapacakt\u0131r?<\/p>\n<p>Bunun i\u00e7in de sadece 2 se\u00e7ene\u011fi bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bunlar:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u015eu an kendisi bir gaz ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumunda olan M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019dan, yeni ke\u015fiflerini geli\u015ftirerek \u00fcretime d\u00f6nd\u00fcrd\u00fckten sonra Arish \u2013 Ashkelon boru hatt\u0131 ile gaz ithal etmek.<\/li>\n<li>Afrodit sahas\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirip, gaz ithal etmek.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u0130lk se\u00e7enek olan M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019dan gaz ithalat\u0131 yaparak, o gaz\u0131 bir\u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcreci a\u015farak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye satmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak, ekonomik ko\u015fullar sa\u011flansa bile, \u00e7ok da kar edilebilecek bir opsiyon de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Tespam &#8211;\u00a0Energy Policy Turkey Dergisi\u2019nde yay\u0131nlanan, uluslar aras\u0131 literat\u00fcrdeki ilgili alandaki ilk \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma olan ve M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na kadarl\u0131k ihracat potansiyelini anlatan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma da g\u00f6stermektedir ki; M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n zaten ihra\u00e7 potansiyeli hemen hemen kendi bo\u015f LNG tesis kapasitesi kadar olacakt\u0131r. Yani M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n yeni ihracat opsiyonlar\u0131 arama derdi bulunmamaktad\u0131r. \u00dcretece\u011fini LNG olarak ihra\u00e7 edecektir. Yani \u0130srail\u2019in M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019dan ucuza gaz al\u0131p, buna kar koyup, ta\u015f\u0131ma risklerini ve maliyetleri de dikkate alarak, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye sevk etme ihtimali olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. K\u0131sacas\u0131 bu se\u00e7enek tercih edilmeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Geriye tek se\u00e7enek kalmaktad\u0131r. Ki, bu se\u00e7enek de, \u0130srail\u2019in kurgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 alg\u0131 operasyonlar\u0131ndaki dillendirilmeyen planlar\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu se\u00e7enek \u0130srail\u2019in:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Kuzey K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n da hakk\u0131 olan Afrodit sahas\u0131n\u0131 illegal olarak geli\u015ftirerek, Leviathan sahas\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u00fcretime almas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Buradan \u00fcretece\u011fi gaz\u0131 gayet makul fiyatlara sat\u0131n almas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Sat\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 gaz ile kendi i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131n\u0131 beslemesi,<\/li>\n<li>Bu sayede ihra\u00e7 potansiyelinde plato seviyesinde 7 milyar m3\/y\u0131l\u2019l\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f elde ederek, bu hacmi de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye satmas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu se\u00e7enek her ne kadar hem T\u00fcrkiye, hem \u0130srail, hem de G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s taraf\u0131ndan faydal\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckse de, genel anlamda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki ali menfaatleri ile \u00e7eli\u015fmektedir. Yani elindeki imkanlar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilgili pazarl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7lerini \u00e7ok daha fazla uzatarak, istedi\u011fini almas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeterlidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolayl\u0131 olarak T\u00fcrkiye olmadan Afrodit zaten geli\u015ftirilemeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Afrodit gibi asl\u0131nda \u00e7ok da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rezerve sahip olmayan bir saha i\u00e7in;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Gaz kimyas\u0131 sebebi ile \u00e7ok pahal\u0131ya gelecek LNG tesisinin kurulma ihtimali mevcut ko\u015fullarda \u00e7ok olas\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fckmemektedir.<\/li>\n<li>M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n Zohr sahas\u0131na, oradan da ilgili LNG tesislerine nakledilerek \u00fcretime ba\u015flanmas\u0131, M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019\u0131n ilgili LNG tesis kapasiteleri 2032\u2019ye kadar dolu olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/li>\n<li>\u00dcretimin \u0130srail\u2019in Leviathan sahas\u0131n\u0131n tesislerine y\u00f6nlendirilerek, \u0130srail\u2019e sat\u0131lmas\u0131, en ekonomik opsiyon olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Afrodit sahas\u0131 zaten K\u0131br\u0131s adas\u0131na uzak, fakat Leviathan sahas\u0131na yak\u0131nd\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu son se\u00e7enek sayesinde \u0130srail gaz denklemindeki pozitif hacmi artt\u0131racak ve bir Afrodit sahas\u0131 \u00fcretimi kadarl\u0131k fazladan ihracat kapasitesi elde edecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu yeni elde edece\u011fi ihracat kapasitesinin projeksiyonuna a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikte yer verilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/afrodit-grafik.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"828\" height=\"463\" \/><br \/>\nGrafik1: \u0130srail + K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n Toplam Gaz \u0130hra\u00e7 Potansiyeli 2050 (Kaynak: <a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/kibris-sorunu-cozulse-turkiyeye-ne-kadar-gaz-gelecek\/\">https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/kibris-sorunu-cozulse-turkiyeye-ne-kadar-gaz-gelecek\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Zaten mevcut ko\u015fullar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, \u00f6rne\u011fin saha bazl\u0131 analiz yap\u0131l\u0131rsa, Leviathan ortaklar\u0131n \u00fcretecekleri gaz\u0131n belli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc \u0130srail\u2019e satmak zorundad\u0131rlar. O zorunluluk d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki hacmi ise ihra\u00e7 edebilme yetkilerine sahiptirler. Bu noktada, haliyle verecekleri karar ilgili market fiyatlar\u0131 ve farkl\u0131 opsiyonlar\u0131n siyasi-ekonomik uygulanabilirliklerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olacakt\u0131r. Fakat t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u0130srail\u2019in elinde her zaman bu anla\u015fmada baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fikliklere gitme yetkisi de bulunmaktad\u0131r. Zaten bu konuda faaliyet g\u00f6steren bir \u201canti-trust\u201d komitesi de g\u00f6revine devam etmektedir. Yani Leviathan ortaklar\u0131n\u0131n gaz ihracat izni olsa dahi, \u0130srail\u2019in i\u00e7 t\u00fcketiminde a\u00e7\u0131k olmas\u0131 durumunda, bu komite gerek fiyatlarda, gerek de hacimlerde de\u011fi\u015fiklikler yaparak m\u00fcdahale edebilecektir. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, mevcut uluslararas\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmalar\u0131 tamamland\u0131ktan sonra, ilgili anla\u015fmalar\u0131 etkileyecek bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmese de, \u0130srail\u2019in ilgili yat\u0131r\u0131m ortam\u0131ndaki bu gibi ciddi belirsizliklerin ve risklerin etkileri g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemelidir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, Leviathan ortaklar\u0131 ile T\u00fcrkiye aras\u0131nda bir gaz ihracat anla\u015fmas\u0131 yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda, \u0130srail\u2019in i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131k verece\u011fi bilinmektedir. Bunu da kar\u015f\u0131layabilecek en ekonomik opsiyon, ipleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ellerinde olan Afrodit sahas\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Yani Afrodit sahas\u0131ndan gelecek gaza g\u00fcveni olmasa, \u0130srail ilgili ihracat politikalar\u0131n\u0131, Leviathan ortaklar\u0131na verdikleri izinleri, yapmay\u0131 hedefledikleri sat\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmek zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Tam da bu noktada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ataca\u011f\u0131 ad\u0131mlar ve hamleler t\u00fcm dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca tekrar vurgulamak gereklidir ki; bu konularda alg\u0131 olu\u015fturulmak ama\u00e7l\u0131 dillendirilen M\u0131s\u0131r ve EastMed opsiyonlar\u0131 ise zaten tutarl\u0131 ve uygulanabilir de\u011fildir. T\u00fcrkiye pazar\u0131 \u0130srail i\u00e7in en ekonomik ve tercih edilebilir se\u00e7enektir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bu hususlara b\u00fct\u00fcn teknik y\u00f6nleri ile hakim olan bir T\u00fcrkiye, yapaca\u011f\u0131 m\u00fczakere s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde beklentilerinden \u00e7ok daha fazlas\u0131n\u0131 alabilecek imkanlara sahiptir.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca olas\u0131 bir \u0130srail \u2013 T\u00fcrkiye gaz sat\u0131\u015f anla\u015fmas\u0131 neticesinde, Kuzey K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n da hakk\u0131 olan Afrodit\u2019ten ve ilgili ihtilafl\u0131 deniz alanlar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7mek zorunda kal\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 riskini de s\u00fcrekli g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurmas\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, yine de yeni kontrat m\u00fczakerelerinde \u0130srail gaz\u0131 bir pazarl\u0131k arg\u00fcman\u0131 olarak kullan\u0131lmak istenecek ise de; bunun \u00e7ok da etkili bir y\u00f6ntem olmayaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131labilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Not: Bu konular\u0131n daha net anla\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131da linkleri verilen \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n incelenmesi faydal\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/israilin-bize-verecek-gazi-kalmadi\/\">https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/israilin-bize-verecek-gazi-kalmadi\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/kibris-sorunu-cozulse-turkiyeye-ne-kadar-gaz-gelecek\/\">https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/kibris-sorunu-cozulse-turkiyeye-ne-kadar-gaz-gelecek\/<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/dogu-akdeniz-eastmed-boru-hatti-projesi\/\">https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/dogu-akdeniz-eastmed-boru-hatti-projesi\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Uzun s\u00fcredir TESPAM b\u00fcnyesinde dillendirildi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u0130srail\u2019in t\u00fcketim ve ke\u015ffedilen sahalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim projeksiyonlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ciddi miktarda bir ihracat potansiyeli bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Bu dengeleri ancak yeni b\u00fcy\u00fck ke\u015fifler\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":4898,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[419,564,568,565,569,570,566,114],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-4896","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-dogu-akdeniz-enerji","tag-eastmed-boru-hatti","tag-israil-enerji","tag-israil-enerji-bakanligi","tag-israil-turkiye-iliskileri","tag-israilin-plani","tag-misir-kibris-enerji","tag-oguzhan-akyener"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>\u0130srail&#039;in Dillendirilmeyen Plan\u0131 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/israilin-dillendirilmeyen-plani\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0130srail&#039;in Dillendirilmeyen Plan\u0131 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Uzun s\u00fcredir TESPAM b\u00fcnyesinde dillendirildi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u0130srail\u2019in t\u00fcketim ve ke\u015ffedilen sahalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim projeksiyonlar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ciddi miktarda bir ihracat potansiyeli bulunmamaktad\u0131r. 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