{"id":5517,"date":"2017-08-28T09:43:10","date_gmt":"2017-08-28T06:43:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=5517"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:14","slug":"enerji-merkezi-olma-yolunda-bol-keseden-atmaya-devam-ediliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/enerji-merkezi-olma-yolunda-bol-keseden-atmaya-devam-ediliyor\/","title":{"rendered":"Enerji Merkezi Olma Yolunda Bol Keseden Atmaya Devam Ediliyor!"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008080;\">Resmi devlet kanallar\u0131na dahi konuk olan, akademik y\u00f6n\u00fc de bulunabilen baz\u0131 s\u00f6zde enerji uzmanlar\u0131ndan bilimsel hi\u00e7 bir tabana oturamayan yorumlar gelmeye devam ediyor. \u0130\u015fin k\u00f6t\u00fc yan\u0131 kamuoyunu yanl\u0131\u015f y\u00f6nlendiren bu tarz yorumlar, ba\u015f\u0131nda \u201cDr.\u201d, \u201cDo\u00e7.\u201d, \u201cProf.\u201d gibi \u00fcnvanlar bulunan kimselerce, resmi devlet kanallar\u0131nda payla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019de petrol ve gaz yok.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cBu y\u00fczden odaklanmam\u0131z gereken bir enerji merkezi olmak!\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cBunun i\u00e7in de TANAP, T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 gibi \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131l\u0131yor.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cBu noktada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bir ticaret merkezi olabilmek i\u00e7in;\n<ul>\n<li>50 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck ihtiyac\u0131 var ise; \u00f6rne\u011fin 70 milyar m3\u2019ler civar\u0131nda gaz sat\u0131n almas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu gaz\u0131 da k\u0131\u015f\u0131n talep artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019ya satmas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Bunun i\u00e7in fazla gaz\u0131 depolayacak tesisler kurmas\u0131 gerekiyor.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u201cDo\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019den b\u00fcy\u00fck kaynaklar T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ge\u00e7mek i\u00e7in bekliyor.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>gibi bir\u00e7ok yakla\u015f\u0131m, \u00fclkemizde ne yaz\u0131k ki ger\u00e7ekmi\u015f gibi alg\u0131lan\u0131yor. Hatta bu alg\u0131 hatalar\u0131 resmi devlet s\u00f6ylemlerine dahi d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Peki as\u0131l olan ne?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6ncelikle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de;\n<ul>\n<li>mevcut jeolojik ve jeofizik yakla\u015f\u0131mlar birka\u00e7 defa yeniden yorumlanarak test edilmeden,<\/li>\n<li>haz\u0131rlanan fay haritalar\u0131, katman modelleri, \u00e7eli\u015fkili y\u00f6nler yeniden tan\u0131mlanmadan,<\/li>\n<li>aramac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra sondaj ve kuyu tamamlama operasyonlar\u0131ndaki eksikliklerin ke\u015ffi nas\u0131l etkiledi\u011fi ve bu alanlardan kaynaklanan yanl\u0131\u015flar\u0131n nas\u0131l giderilece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131lmadan,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>petrol var ya da yok demek bilimsel bir yakla\u015f\u0131m olmayacakt\u0131r. Hatta \u00f6yle ki, petrol ve gaz potansiyeli hakk\u0131nda dahi tutarl\u0131 bir yorum yap\u0131lamayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bu sebeple tutars\u0131z bir \u201cpetrol ve gaz yok\u201d yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan giderek, yine ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde tutars\u0131z olan enerji merkezi olma hayali \u00fczerine de politika geli\u015ftirmenin zaman kayb\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131labilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Tanap ve T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131 ile enerji merkezi olundu\u011funun zannedilmesi ise kullan\u0131lan tan\u0131m\u0131n ne ifade etti\u011finin bilinmedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bir enerji merkezi; b\u00fcy\u00fck hacimlerdeki farkl\u0131 kaynaklardan, farkl\u0131 t\u00fcrler ile bir araya gelen ve i\u015flem hacmi ile d\u00fcnya piyasalar\u0131nda etki olu\u015fturabilen bir yap\u0131y\u0131 ifade etmektedir. \u0130lgili projeler ise sadece Rus ve Azerbaycan kaynakl\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in \u00e7ok da b\u00fcy\u00fck anlam ifade etmeyecek olan ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi bir ticaret merkezi olmaktan ziyade, bir ge\u00e7i\u015f g\u00fczergah\u0131 olarak ele almaktad\u0131r. Yani ilgili projelerin de T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin enerji merkezi olmas\u0131na bir katk\u0131s\u0131 bulundu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek tutarl\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bir enerji merkezi olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ise:\n<ul>\n<li>50 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck ihtiyac\u0131 var ise; \u00f6rne\u011fin 70 milyar m3\u2019ler civar\u0131nda gaz sat\u0131n almas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu gaz\u0131 da k\u0131\u015f\u0131n talep artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019ya satmas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Bunun i\u00e7in fazla gaz\u0131 depolayacak tesisler kurmas\u0131 gerekiyor.\u201d \u0130fadeleri gaz ticaretinin nas\u0131l yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, gaz ta\u015f\u0131ma bedellerinin ve piyasa fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l belirlendi\u011finin, ilgili fiyatlar\u0131n hangi seviyelerde seyretti\u011finin, bilinmedi\u011fini g\u00f6stermektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc; \u00f6ncelikle 50 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck ihtiya\u00e7 varken, hangi y\u0131l, +20 milyar m3\u2019\u00fcn nereden, hangi fiyatlar ile temin edilece\u011fi, temin edilen bu hacmin nerede depolanaca\u011f\u0131, depolama masraflar\u0131 da eklendi\u011finde, yeni maliyetlerin ne olaca\u011f\u0131, sonra yeni y\u00fcklenen bu maliyetler ile hedef pazara gaz\u0131n ger\u00e7ekten ekonomik olarak verilip verilemeyece\u011finin \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Bu noktada T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin +20 milyar m3\u2019l\u00fck bir do\u011falgaz depolama hacmi olsa dahi; bu hacmi temin etmek i\u00e7in, kaynak, nakil hatt\u0131 ve hedef pazarlardaki piyasa fiyatlar\u0131 konular\u0131ndaki engeller b\u00f6yle bir giri\u015fimin yap\u0131labilmesini m\u00fcmk\u00fcn k\u0131lmamaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Di\u011fer bir ifade ile:\n<ul>\n<li>Azerbaycan\u2019dan +20 milyar m3 gaz \u00e7\u0131kmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran\u2019dan da b\u00f6yle bir hacim orta vadede \u00e7\u0131kmayacakt\u0131r. Uzun vadede \u00e7\u0131ksa dahi bu hacmin T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya nakli ekonomik de\u011fildir. Ki, bu i\u015fleme bir de depolama maliyetleri eklendi\u011finde bu senaryo iyice uygulanamaz bir hal alacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Do\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019de zannedildi\u011fi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihracat potansiyeli yoktur.<\/li>\n<li>Kuzey Irak\u2019ta da zannedildi\u011fi gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihracat potansiyeli bulunmamaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkmen gaz\u0131n\u0131n da ekonomik olarak T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden Avrupa\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131nma \u015fans\u0131 yoktur.<\/li>\n<li>Sadece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 Kuzey Irak ve Do\u011fu Akdeniz gazlar\u0131ndan 5 \u2013 10 milyar m3 aras\u0131 bir hacmin orta\/uzun vadede Avrupa\u2019ya sevki s\u00f6z konusu olabilecektir. Tabii bunun i\u00e7in de sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n gazlar\u0131n\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye sat\u0131p, oradan sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesi opsiyonunu kabul edece\u011fi beklenmeyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Dostumuz Azerbaycan dahi benzer durumda, gaz\u0131n\u0131 Avrupa\u2019ya kendi satmakta ve sat\u0131\u015f i\u015fine T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 kabul etmemektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Buradan, Ukrayna \u00f6rne\u011finin aksine, s\u00f6z\u00fcnde duran bir transit \u00fclkenin asl\u0131nda \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7en kayna\u011f\u0131n \u00e7ok da ehemmiyetli olmayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131 da farkedilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>\u201cDo\u011fu Akdeniz\u2019deki b\u00fcy\u00fck kaynaklar\u0131n da T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7meyi bekledi\u011fi\u201d ifadesi TESPAM ve EnergyPolicyTurkey kaynaklar\u0131nda defalarca analiz edildi\u011fi \u00fczere, \u0130srail\u2019in ortaya att\u0131\u011f\u0131 tutars\u0131z bir alg\u0131 operasyonundan ibarettir. Bu s\u00f6ylemlerin s\u00fcrekli dillendirilmesi cehalet ya da ihanet vari bir tutumun g\u00f6stergesidir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bilimsel olmayan ve milli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m ta\u015f\u0131mayan bu tarz yakla\u015f\u0131mlar ile bir yere varamayaca\u011f\u0131 da kesindir. Ayr\u0131ca maalesef hala \u201cen fazla okumu\u015f kesim\u201d olarak zannedilen akademisyenlerimizin bir\u00e7o\u011funun dahi daha \u00e7ok okumaya ihtiyac\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Resmi devlet kanallar\u0131na dahi konuk olan, akademik y\u00f6n\u00fc de bulunabilen baz\u0131 s\u00f6zde enerji uzmanlar\u0131ndan bilimsel hi\u00e7 bir tabana oturamayan yorumlar gelmeye devam ediyor. \u0130\u015fin k\u00f6t\u00fc\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5519,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-5517","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with 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