{"id":5617,"date":"2017-09-19T16:22:24","date_gmt":"2017-09-19T13:22:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=5617"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:14","slug":"ikby-referandum-sureci-uzerine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/ikby-referandum-sureci-uzerine\/","title":{"rendered":"IKBY Referandum S\u00fcreci \u00dczerine"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #008080;\">\u00dclkemiz ve b\u00f6lgemizin huzurunu ve istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit ederek, \u00e7ok daha s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lere gebe olan referandum s\u00fcrecini<strong> \u201c<\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/kuzey-i\/\"><strong>https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/kuzey-i\/<\/strong><\/a><strong>\u201d <\/strong>linkinden eri\u015febilece\u011finiz raporla daha detayl\u0131 inceleyebilirsiniz<\/span>.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Bu yaz\u0131m\u0131zda da konu ile alakal\u0131 baz\u0131 anahtar sorulara verilen cevaplar\u0131 bulacaks\u0131n\u0131z.<\/p>\n<p><strong>***<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Yakla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 Ne Olmal\u0131d\u0131r? Hangi Ad\u0131mlar At\u0131labilir?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin IKBY ile m\u00fczakerelerde elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirebilmek i\u00e7in (\u00f6zellikle) referandum \u00f6ncesinde ivedilikle \u015f\u00f6yle bir plan\u0131 izlemesi yerinde olacakt\u0131r:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>T\u00fcm ticari ili\u015fkiler kesilecek.<\/li>\n<li>Petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131r\u0131lacak.<\/li>\n<li>Diplomatik ili\u015fkiler bitirilecek.<\/li>\n<li>Barzani ailesinin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki t\u00fcm mal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na el koyulacak.<\/li>\n<li>B\u00f6lgede \u00fczerinde etki kurulmu\u015f olan T\u00fcrkmen ve S\u00fcnni Arap n\u00fcfuzu sokaklara d\u00f6k\u00fclecek.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran ve Rusya ile durum de\u011ferlendirmeleri yap\u0131lacak.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden IKBY\u2019ye sa\u011flanan her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ula\u015f\u0131m, lojistik faaliyet sonland\u0131r\u0131lacak.<\/li>\n<li>ABD, \u0130srail ve Bat\u0131 Grubundan bu konudaki olas\u0131 bask\u0131lara, bunun i\u00e7 g\u00fcvenlik meselesi<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>oldu\u011funu ifade edip, kulaklar\u0131 t\u0131kanacak.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Suriye\u2019de g\u00fcvenli\u011fe azami dikkat edilecek.<\/li>\n<li>Di\u011fer olas\u0131 gayri nizami sald\u0131r\u0131lara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nacak.<\/li>\n<li>Sonraki ad\u0131mda IKBY y\u00f6netiminin \u00fcst d\u00fczey kabul\u00fc d\u0131\u015f i\u015fleri bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nca, baz\u0131 diplomatik<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>bekletme prosed\u00fcrleri de uygulanarak yap\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>G\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmede \u015fartlar ortaya koyulacak. \u015eartlar, yukar\u0131da da bahsedildi\u011fi \u00fczere:<\/li>\n<li>\u201cErbil, S\u00fcleymaniye, Duhok ve Kerk\u00fck\u2019te askeri \u00fcsler kurulacak,<\/li>\n<li>Petrol ve orta vadede olas\u0131 gaz ticareti de sadece T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden devam edecek,<\/li>\n<li>B\u00f6lgede teknik ve finansal eksiklikler sebebi ile geli\u015ftirilemeyen t\u00fcm sahalar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ortakl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve deste\u011fi ile \u00fcretime al\u0131nacak ve \u00f6ncelikli pazar T\u00fcrkiye olacak \u015fekilde sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lacak,<\/li>\n<li>Kerk\u00fck valisi ve y\u00f6netimini T\u00fcrkiye atayacak,<\/li>\n<li>IKBY\u2019nin PYD-PKK-YPG ile ili\u015fkiye girmesine kesinlikle izin vermeyecek,<\/li>\n<li>Bu ili\u015fkileri denetleyen ve T\u00fcrk D\u0131\u015f \u0130\u015flerince atanacak \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir komite kurulacak,<\/li>\n<li>B\u00f6lgedeki T\u00fcrkmenlerin haklar\u0131 sonuna kadar savunulacak ve bu konu ile ilgili de \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir komite kurulacak,<\/li>\n<li>Referandumun bu \u015fartlar sa\u011fland\u0131ktan sonra T\u00fcrkiye kontrol\u00fcnde yap\u0131labilmesi de\u011ferlendirilecek,<\/li>\n<li>Referandum akabinde IKBY\u2019nin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ilhak\u0131 da s\u00f6z konusu olup, de\u011ferlendirilebilecek,<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te IKBY\u2019ye her t\u00fcrl\u00fc deste\u011fi sa\u011flayacak.\u201d \u015feklinde olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bu \u015fartlar kabul edilene kadar D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 hari\u00e7, daha \u00fcst d\u00fczey hi\u00e7bir yetkili ile IKBY Ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n ya da yetkililerinin g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmesine izin verilmeyecek. Hatta T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye giri\u015f yapmalar\u0131na ya da T\u00fcrk hava sahas\u0131n\u0131 dahi kullanmalar\u0131na dahi izin verilmeyecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye ancak bu tarz yerine g\u00f6re sert, cayd\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 ve ne istedi\u011fini bilir hamleler ile netice alabilecek ve niyetlendi\u011fi cihan\u015f\u00fcmul hedeflerine y\u00fcr\u00fcmeye devam edebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Aksi halde yap\u0131lan b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00e7abalar heba olacak ve \u00e7ok daha riskli ve tehlikeli olu\u015fumlar ad\u0131m ad\u0131m g\u00fcndemi me\u015fgul etmeye ve zararl\u0131 hale gelmeye devam edecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Referandum Petrol Gelirleri Payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 Konusunu Bir \u00c7at\u0131\u015fma Ortam\u0131na D\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcr m\u00fc?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>2014\u2019ten beri IKBY ile aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7eki\u015fmeler sebebiyle MIY (Merkezi Irak Y\u00f6netimi), Irak anayasas\u0131nda K\u00fcrtlerin hakk\u0131 olarak yer alan %17\u2019lik petrol gelirlerinden elde edilen b\u00fct\u00e7e pay\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ndermemektedir. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k da K\u00fcrtler \u00fcrettikleri petrol\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan elde ettikleri gelirin tamam\u0131n\u0131 kendileri kullanmaktad\u0131r. Yani ortada devam eden ve pek de \u00fclke i\u00e7i birlik ve istikrar sa\u011flanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fcddet\u00e7e \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclemeyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fclen ciddi bir anla\u015fmazl\u0131k bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda resmi olarak olmas\u0131 gereken,<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>IKBY\u2019nin MIY onay\u0131 olmadan petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapmamas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>MIY onay\u0131 ile yap\u0131lan t\u00fcm ticaret gelirlerinin merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7eye aktar\u0131lmas\u0131,<\/li>\n<li>Merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7ede biriken t\u00fcm gelirlerin de %17\u2019sinin IKBY\u2019ye \u00f6denmesidir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Fakat bu s\u00fcrecin i\u015fleyi\u015fi pek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Referandum sonras\u0131 IKBY\u2019nin olas\u0131 bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k ilan\u0131 durumunda;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Ortada gelir payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 gibi bir anla\u015fma ya da MIY\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 bir b\u00f6lgesel y\u00f6netim olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Bu da b\u00f6yle bir anla\u015fman\u0131n zaten h\u00fck\u00fcms\u00fcz olaca\u011f\u0131 sonucunu ortaya \u00e7\u0131karacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Demek ki, gelir payla\u015f\u0131m\u0131 konusu kapanacak fakat b\u00f6lgesel hakimiyet konusunda yeni \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma durumlar\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>MIY\u2019nin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 da zaten olas\u0131 bir askeri m\u00fcdahalenin sinyallerini vermektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><em>Kerk\u00fck\u2019\u00fcn Referanduma Tabii Tutulmas\u0131 Ne Anlama Gelmektedir?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Kerk\u00fck \u00f6ncelikle berlirtilmelidir ki, Misak-\u0131 Milli s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7erisinde kalan, Musul vilayetimizin bir sanca\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc etnik temizli\u011fe ra\u011fmen bir T\u00fcrk \u015fehri olma stat\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc de korumaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca yakla\u015f\u0131k 26 milyar varillik kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f rezervi bulunan nam\u0131 de\u011fer Kerk\u00fck sahas\u0131n\u0131n bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc de bu \u015fehrin alt\u0131nda yer almaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki haritadan Kerk\u00fck \u015eehri, \u015fehrin etraf\u0131ndaki sahalar ve Kerk\u00fck sahas\u0131n\u0131n uzan\u0131m\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecektir. Ayr\u0131ca TESPAM\u2019da 23 Ekim 2016\u2019da yay\u0131nlanan \u201cBizim Musul: Kaynaklar\u0131, Ge\u00e7mi\u015fi, Gelece\u011fi ve \u00d6nemi\u201d isimli rapordan da ilgili sahalar\u0131n rezerv miktarlar\u0131na da ula\u015f\u0131labilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Harita 1: Kerk\u00fck \u015eehri ve Kerk\u00fck Sahas\u0131 (Kaynak: <a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/bizim-musul-kaynaklari-gecmisi-gelecegi-ve-onemi\/\">https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/bizim-musul-kaynaklari-gecmisi-gelecegi-ve-onemi\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131daki haritadan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, zaten uzun s\u00fcredir \u00f6zellikle b\u00f6lgedeki en kalabal\u0131k ve etkin kesim olan T\u00fcrkmenler \u00fczerinde y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen etnik temizlik, \u015fehrin ve b\u00f6lgenin ne kadar stratejik oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Hali haz\u0131rda Kerk\u00fck sahas\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan \u00fcretim konusunda devam eden anla\u015fmazl\u0131k, olas\u0131 bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z K\u00fcrdistan sonras\u0131, ciddi bir \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmaya d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Kerk\u00fck \u015fehrini bir oldu bitti ile referanduma dahil etmek isteyen IKBY, uzun vadede uluslararas\u0131 toplumun deste\u011fini alabilmesi durumunda, \u015fehir \u00fczerinden b\u00f6lgesel hakimiyetini artt\u0131rmay\u0131 hedeflemektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, anla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fi \u00fczere, Kerk\u00fck \u015fehrinin referanduma dahil edilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n sebebi de, bu \u015fehirde uygulanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan etnik m\u00fchendislik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n sebebi de enerjidir!<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>S\u00fcre\u00e7 Petrol Fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 Nas\u0131l Etkiler?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Olas\u0131 bir ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k karar\u0131 sonras\u0131nda, kom\u015fular\u0131 olan \u0130ran, MIY ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ili\u015fkileri sadece dondurmas\u0131 durumunda, IKBY\u2019nin hali haz\u0131rda devam etti\u011fi yakla\u015f\u0131k 550 000 &#8211; 600 000 varil \/ g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol ihracat\u0131 bir anda s\u0131f\u0131rlanacakt\u0131r. Zaten \u00e7at\u0131\u015fma halindeki Suriye\u2019den gelen ter\u00f6rist \u00fcretimi petrol\u00fcn! de bu g\u00fczergahtan geldi\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, b\u00f6yle bir hamlenin ilgili sat\u0131c\u0131lar \u00fczerinde ciddi etkileri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca \u00fcretimin devam\u0131 i\u00e7in de, depolama kapasitesinin az olu\u015fu, ula\u015f\u0131labilecek market olmay\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra lojistik imkanlar\u0131n da k\u0131s\u0131tlanmas\u0131, IKBY i\u00e7in durumu i\u00e7inden \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lamaz bir hale sokacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>B\u00f6yle bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te artan i\u00e7 huzursuzluk ve kom\u015fulardan gelecek bask\u0131 ve m\u00fcdahaleler kurulan kanl\u0131 hayallerin de kolayl\u0131kla sonunu haz\u0131rlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda IKBY\u2019nin arz edemeyece\u011fi g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 0,5 milyon varillik bir hacmin ise k\u00fcresel piyasalar i\u00e7in pek de \u00f6nemi olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Hatta bu kesinti, OPEC ve OPEC \u00fcyesi olmayan baz\u0131 \u00fclkelerin ald\u0131klar\u0131 halde k\u0131smen uygulayamad\u0131klar\u0131 kesinti karar\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda da ho\u015f kar\u015f\u0131lanacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak hali haz\u0131rda arz\u0131n talepten y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131nda, IKBY\u2019nin \u00fcretimindeki olas\u0131 bir kesinti, k\u00fcresel anlamda \u00f6nem ihtiva etmeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, MIY\u2019nin Suudi Arabistan ve baz\u0131 b\u00f6lge \u00fclkeleri ile yeni petrol ticareti rotalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n da orta vadede sonu\u00e7 vermesi, IKBY ve Ceyhan \u00fczerindeki rotadan MIY\u2019nin de tamamen vazge\u00e7mesi anlam\u0131na gelecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan pek de istenmeyecek bir geli\u015fme olsa da, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7ok daha ba\u015fka ad\u0131mlar atabilmesine de belki imkan sa\u011flayabilecektir. Yani bu konuda da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fimdiden stratejiler geli\u015ftirmesi \u00f6nemlidir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00a0 \u00dclkemiz ve b\u00f6lgemizin huzurunu ve istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit ederek, \u00e7ok daha s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lere gebe olan referandum s\u00fcrecini \u201chttps:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/kuzey-i\/\u201d linkinden eri\u015febilece\u011finiz raporla daha\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":5618,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[758,213,57,759,114,760,761],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-5617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-ikby","tag-irak","tag-kerkuk","tag-musul","tag-oguzhan-akyener","tag-referandurum","tag-turkmenler"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>IKBY Referandum S\u00fcreci \u00dczerine - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/ikby-referandum-sureci-uzerine\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IKBY Referandum S\u00fcreci \u00dczerine - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00a0 \u00dclkemiz ve b\u00f6lgemizin huzurunu ve istikrar\u0131n\u0131 tehdit ederek, \u00e7ok daha s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lere gebe 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