{"id":5620,"date":"2017-09-21T09:53:30","date_gmt":"2017-09-21T06:53:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=5620"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:14","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:14","slug":"kurtlere-rus-destegi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/kurtlere-rus-destegi\/","title":{"rendered":"K\u00fcrtlere Rus Deste\u011fi"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Burak KAYAEL<\/em><\/p>\n

IKBY\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde giderek t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k s\u00f6ylemleri ve hayalleri b\u00f6lgede yeni gerilimler yarat\u0131yor ve olas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Mesud Barzani\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu t\u00fcm i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f bask\u0131lara ra\u011fmen hen\u00fcz iptal edilmedi ya da ertelenmedi. <\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

T\u00fcrkiye ilk ba\u015fta yumu\u015fak s\u00f6ylemlerle kar\u015f\u0131 geldi\u011fi referandum yakla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a tutumunu da giderek sertle\u015ftirdi. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin olas\u0131 bir referandum \u00f6ncesi ve sonras\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in neler yapmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini referandumu inceleyen TESPAM analizinde irdelemi\u015ftik. At\u0131lmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine inand\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ad\u0131mlar\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet taraf\u0131ndan at\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. Halen devam etmekte olan askeri tatbikat, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin her t\u00fcrl\u00fc ko\u015fulu g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurdu\u011funun a\u00e7\u0131k bir g\u00f6stergesi olarak d\u00fcnya kamuoyu taraf\u0131ndan takip edilmekte. Sn. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131, Sn. Ba\u015fbakan ve Sn. Enerji Bakan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 olas\u0131 referandumun iki taraf\u0131n enerji alan\u0131ndaki i\u015fbirli\u011fini etkileyece\u011fini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne sermesine ra\u011fmen hen\u00fcz bu alanda bir ad\u0131m at\u0131lmad\u0131.<\/p>\n

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Halen b\u00f6lgeden \u00fcretilen petrol\u00fcn g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 \u2013 650 bin varillik bir k\u0131sm\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerinden d\u0131\u015f pazarlara sat\u0131l\u0131yor ve bu petrol\u00fcn en b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131s\u0131 K\u00fcrt ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir numaral\u0131 destek\u00e7isi \u0130srail. Daha \u00f6nceki k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131lar\u0131nda ve analizlerimizde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z bir durum da K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k hareketine kimlerin kar\u015f\u0131 geldi\u011fi, kimlerin destek oldu\u011fu ve kimlerin elini belli etmedi\u011fiydi. Rusya d\u00fcn ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen bir olaya kadar elini pek belli etmiyordu. Ancak d\u00fcn yap\u0131lan bir a\u00e7\u0131klama IKBY ve Rosneft\u2019in b\u00f6lgedeki enerji denklemini de\u011fi\u015ftirebilecek bir anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamak \u00fczere olduklar\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Referanduma bir hafta kala yap\u0131lan bu a\u00e7\u0131klama Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yekten a\u00e7\u0131klamasa da K\u00fcrtlerin ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 destekledi\u011fini ortaya koydu. Referandumun gerilimi s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir s\u0131rada taraflar\u0131n anla\u015fmaya \u00e7ok yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu ve sene sonuna kadar nihai anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalamay\u0131 istediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgenin gelece\u011finde masada bulunarak s\u00f6z sahibi olmak istedi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

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Asl\u0131nda IKBY \u2013 Rosneft aras\u0131ndaki \u00f6n anla\u015fmas\u0131 Barzani\u2019nin referandum tarihini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131ndan 5 g\u00fcn \u00f6nce taraflar aras\u0131ndan St. Petersburg\u2019da imzaland\u0131. Petrol ve gaz arama lisanslar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra b\u00f6lgesel y\u00f6netim Rosneft\u2019e b\u00f6lgedeki boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131 da a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f ve bunlar\u0131 bir ortakl\u0131k \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde geli\u015ftirmeye karar vermi\u015fti. Ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 herhangi bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131lmayan anla\u015fma hakk\u0131nda d\u00fcn Rosneft taraf\u0131ndan bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yap\u0131ld\u0131. \u015eirketin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya g\u00f6re b\u00f6lgede ilk \u00f6nce yap \u2013 i\u015flet \u2013 devret modeliyle kurulacak bir gaz boru hatt\u0131 kurulacak. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda i\u00e7 pazara 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise d\u0131\u015f pazara (\u00f6ncelikle T\u00fcrkiye sonras\u0131nda ise Avrupa) gaz transferine haz\u0131r olmas\u0131\u00a0planlanan boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n kapasitesinin y\u0131ll\u0131k 30 milyar m3<\/sup> olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu de\u011fer Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n y\u0131ll\u0131k do\u011fal gaz t\u00fcketiminin yakla\u015f\u0131k %6 – %7\u2019lik bir k\u0131sm\u0131na denk geliyor.<\/p>\n

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Gaz boru hatt\u0131 planlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda hali haz\u0131rda b\u00f6lgede \u00fcretilen petrol\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131yan IKBY kontrol\u00fcndeki boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n kapasitesinin geni\u015fletilmesi de g\u00fcndemde. Haziran ay\u0131nda Ne\u00e7irvan Barzani\u2019nin dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Dil\u015fad \u015eehab taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada Rosneft\u2019in ismi a\u00e7\u0131klanmayan 5 lisansta arama yapaca\u011f\u0131 ve b\u00f6lgede \u00fcretilen petrol\u00fc 2 y\u0131l boyunca sat\u0131n alaca\u011f\u0131 belirtilmi\u015fti. Al\u0131nacak petrol\u00fcn miktar\u0131 belirtilmese de \u015eehab taraf\u0131ndan belirtilen 3 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir maliyet \u00fczerinden hesap yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 bin varillik bir sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n garanti alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 tahmin edilebilir.<\/p>\n

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Rosneft s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fc Mikhail Leontyev\u2019in d\u00fcn yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada imzalanmas\u0131 planlanan anla\u015fman\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye istikrar getirece\u011fi ve referandumdan etkilenmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 konuyu referandumundan ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z hale getirme \u00e7abas\u0131 olarak alg\u0131lanabilir. T\u00fcm bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n \u00f6tesinde Leontyev\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda dikkati \u00e7eken nokta ise b\u00f6lgeden yap\u0131lacak gaz ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye \u2013 Rusya aras\u0131ndaki gaz anla\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcrmesi. Rosneft olarak T\u00fcrkiye ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fme yapmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 ancak T\u00fcrkiye ve Rusya aras\u0131nda gaz ihracat s\u00f6zle\u015fmesi oldu\u011funu ve b\u00f6lgeden g\u00f6nderilecek gaz\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de rahatl\u0131kla al\u0131c\u0131 bulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

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Her f\u0131rsatta belirtti\u011fimiz gibi gaz temininde belki de en kolay i\u015f boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n in\u015faat\u0131. As\u0131l \u00f6nemli olan s\u00f6z verilen kapasiteleri sa\u011flayabilecek kayna\u011f\u0131n var olmas\u0131 ve bunlar\u0131n \u00fcretilebilir durumda olmas\u0131. \u015eu ana kadar Genel Enerji\u2019nin elindeki Bina Bawi ve Miran, Pearl Petroleum\u2019un elindeki Chemchemal ve Khor Mor sahas\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ihracat potansiyeli olan gaz sahas\u0131 b\u00f6lgede ke\u015ffedilmedi. \u00dcstelik Khor Mor sahas\u0131 IKBY\u2019nin Irak anayasas\u0131nda tan\u0131nan resmi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kalan bir b\u00f6lgede bulunuyor. Genel Enerji 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda Bina Bawi ve Miran sahalar\u0131nda ihracata y\u00f6nelik geli\u015ftirme \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmu\u015f olsa da bu konuda \u015fu ana kadar herhangi bir ad\u0131m atmad\u0131. Yine 1929 y\u0131l\u0131nda ke\u015ffedilen ve kay\u0131tlara g\u00f6re 3 kuyusu bulunan Chemchemal sahas\u0131 ile 1928\u2019de ke\u015ffedilen ve kay\u0131tlara g\u00f6re 8 kuyusu bulunan Khor Mor sahas\u0131n\u0131n bahsi ge\u00e7en ihracat kapasitelerini bahsi ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde sa\u011flayabilmeleri teknik olarak \u00e7ok zor. Chemchemal ve Khor Mor sahalar\u0131 hali haz\u0131rdaki \u00fcretimlerini Erbil ve Bazian gaz \u00e7evirim santrallerine iletiyor. Miran ve Bina Bawi sahalar\u0131 hen\u00fcz hi\u00e7 \u00fcretim yapmam\u0131\u015f durumda. Genel Enerji\u2019nin i\u015fletti\u011fi Taq Taq sahas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi \u00fcretime ge\u00e7ildikten sonra rezerv tahminlerinin d\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n

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Rosneft\u2019in planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2019\u2019da i\u00e7 pazar 2020\u2019de ihracat hedefi ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i bir m\u00fchendislik hesab\u0131na dayanm\u0131yor gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Anla\u015fman\u0131n hen\u00fcz imzalanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve sene sonunda imzalanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde tutulursa ihracat i\u00e7in de 2020\u2019nin sonunu hedeflediklerini var sayarsak Rosneft ve IKBY\u2019nin elinde 3 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir s\u00fcre olacakt\u0131r. Bu s\u00fcrede Rosneft ve IKBY\u2019nin operat\u00f6r firmalar\u0131 hi\u00e7 durmadan yeni kuyu a\u00e7maya (yap\u0131lacak operasyonlar s\u0131ras\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir aksilik \u00e7\u0131kmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131lacak kuyular\u0131n hepsinin \u00fcretim yapabilir durumda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsayal\u0131m), \u00fcretilecek gaz\u0131 i\u015fleyecek y\u00fczey tesislerini kurmaya ve bu tesislerden \u00e7\u0131kacak gaz\u0131 Rosneft\u2019in in\u015fa edece\u011fi boru hatt\u0131na kadar ta\u015f\u0131yacak ara boru hatlar\u0131n\u0131 in\u015fa etmeye ikna etmeleri gerekiyor. Bu ikna \u00e7abalar\u0131 k\u0131smen ya da tamamen etkisiz olursa o zaman b\u00fct\u00fcn bu i\u015fleri Rosneft\u2019in kendi ba\u015f\u0131na yapmas\u0131n\u0131 gerektirecek. Bunu da daha \u00f6nce hi\u00e7bir tecr\u00fcbesinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir b\u00f6lgede daha \u00f6nce ke\u015fif yap\u0131l\u0131p yap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmedi\u011fimiz 5 adet lisans\u0131nda yapmas\u0131 gerekecek. Her \u015feyin m\u00fckemmel gitmesi durumunda bile \u015firketin 3 sene i\u00e7inde milyarlarca dolar\u0131 bu b\u00f6lgeye yat\u0131rmas\u0131 ve olas\u0131 gaz al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 beklemesi gerekiyor. Tabii b\u00fct\u00fcn bu durumlarda i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi yok saymamam\u0131z gerekiyor ki gelirlerinin ciddi bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 ev ve i\u015f yerlerine elektrik sa\u011flayan jenerat\u00f6rlere yat\u0131ran b\u00f6lge halk\u0131 kendilerine hizmet (kesintisiz elektrik) verilmeden \u00f6nce d\u0131\u015far\u0131ya gaz sat\u0131\u015f\u0131na itiraz edecektir.<\/p>\n

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B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar g\u00f6steriyor ki Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00f6lgeye olan ilgisi enerji g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc alt\u0131nda siyasi bir anlam i\u00e7eriyor. Klasik Rus d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 gere\u011fi referandumun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ya da aksi durumda her t\u00fcrl\u00fc b\u00f6lgedeki enerji denkleminin tam ortas\u0131nda yer alacak ve durumdan karl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacak. Her zaman \u0131srarla s\u00f6yledi\u011fimiz gibi T\u00fcrkiye b\u00f6lgede aktif rol almak ve y\u00f6n veren \u00fclke olmak istiyorsa enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fcretim, nakliye, rafineri ve t\u00fcketiminden olu\u015fan t\u00fcm a\u015famalar\u0131nda olmal\u0131 daha do\u011frusu olmak zorunda. Bunu sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in de elindeki petrol ihracat\u0131n\u0131 durdurma kozunu gerekti\u011finde kullanmaktan \u00e7ekinmemeli.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

  Burak KAYAEL IKBY\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde giderek t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k s\u00f6ylemleri ve hayalleri b\u00f6lgede yeni gerilimler yarat\u0131yor ve olas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. Mesud Barzani\u2019nin 25 Eyl\u00fcl\u2019de yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k referandumu t\u00fcm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5622,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106,135],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-5620","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","category-rusya"],"yoast_head":"\nK\u00fcrtlere Rus Deste\u011fi - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/kurtlere-rus-destegi\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"K\u00fcrtlere Rus Deste\u011fi - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"  Burak KAYAEL IKBY\u2019nin son d\u00f6nemde giderek t\u0131rmand\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131k s\u00f6ylemleri ve hayalleri b\u00f6lgede yeni gerilimler yarat\u0131yor ve olas\u0131 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalara f\u0131rsat yarat\u0131yor. 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