{"id":5686,"date":"2017-10-05T09:05:37","date_gmt":"2017-10-05T06:05:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=5686"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:13","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:13","slug":"kerkuk-hafya-boru-hatti-projesi-dengeler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/kerkuk-hafya-boru-hatti-projesi-dengeler\/","title":{"rendered":"Kerk\u00fck \u2013 Hafya Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi &amp; Dengeler"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #008080;\">B\u00fcy\u00fck Orta Do\u011fu Projesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n kalbine han\u00e7er gibi saplanarak, \u0130srail\u2019in bir \u00e7ocu\u011fu olarak d\u00fcnyaya getirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan K\u00fcrt Devleti\u2019nin nefes alabilmesini sa\u011flayacak ve s\u00fcrecin finansman\u0131n\u0131 temin edecek yegane kaynak petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #008080;\">Petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmesi durumunda, b\u00fct\u00fcn planlar alt\u00fcst olacak ve kom\u015fular\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tan\u0131nmayan bir s\u00f6zde devlet de zaten etnik-siyasi-dini olarak \u00e7ok k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan yap\u0131s\u0131 sebebi ile hayat\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyecektir.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck Orta Do\u011fu Projesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n kalbine han\u00e7er gibi saplanarak, \u0130srail\u2019in bir \u00e7ocu\u011fu olarak d\u00fcnyaya getirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan K\u00fcrt Devleti\u2019nin nefes alabilmesini sa\u011flayacak ve s\u00fcrecin finansman\u0131n\u0131 temin edecek yegane kaynak petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131d\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ilmesi durumunda, b\u00fct\u00fcn planlar alt\u00fcst olacak ve kom\u015fular\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan tan\u0131nmayan bir s\u00f6zde devlet de zaten etnik-siyasi-dini olarak \u00e7ok k\u0131r\u0131lgan olan yap\u0131s\u0131 sebebi ile hayat\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcremeyecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Yani \u00f6zellikle \u0130srail ve ABD\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki kanl\u0131 planlar\u0131 sekteye u\u011frayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, IKBY petrol sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 Ceyhan \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmektedir. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin elinde her zaman bu ticareti sonland\u0131rma imkan\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. Yani b\u00f6lgede ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrt devletine izin vermeyecek olan T\u00fcrkiye elinde olan bu imkan\u0131 kullanma konusunda bir karar verme s\u00fcrecindedir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki T\u00fcrkiye petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 kesti\u011finde ne olacakt\u0131r?<\/p>\n<p>Ticari olarak T\u00fcrkiye b\u00f6lgesel politikalar dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilebilecek d\u00fczeyde zarar etse de, lehine geli\u015fecek b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fimlerin fitilini ate\u015flemi\u015f olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer yandan IKBY ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131zl\u0131\u011fa giden yolda \u015fah damar\u0131 niteli\u011findeki petrol gelirlerinden yeni bir alternatif g\u00fczergah bulana kadar mahrum kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>K\u0131sacas\u0131 ivedi bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm bulunamazsa fel\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r!<\/p>\n<p>Ayr\u0131ca Suriye\u2019nin kuzeyinde finanse etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ter\u00f6rist yap\u0131lanma da bundan zarar g\u00f6recektir.<\/p>\n<p>Peki bu durumda IKBY\u2019yi hayatta tutmak i\u00e7in zalim oyun kurucular hangi ad\u0131mlar\u0131 atabilecektir?<\/p>\n<p>Bu ad\u0131mlar:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 farkl\u0131 bir g\u00fczergahtan s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme;\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130ran \u00fczerinden?<\/li>\n<li>Basra \u00fczerinden?<\/li>\n<li>Suriye \u00fczerinden?<\/li>\n<li>\u00dcrd\u00fcn ve \u0130srail \u00fczerinden?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Ya\u015fanan gelir kayb\u0131n\u0131 finanse etme olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u015eimdi bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131n uygulanabilirli\u011fini inceledi\u011fimizde:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130ran \u00fczerinden yeni \u00f6l\u00fcm haberi al\u0131nan Talabani\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, IBKY ile \u0130ran h\u00fck\u00fcmeti aras\u0131nda g\u00fcnl\u00fck 150 000 varil kapasiteli bir boru hatt\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fas\u0131 ile ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f fakat hayata ge\u00e7irilememi\u015ftir. Yani \u0130ran \u00fczerinden bir nakil hatt\u0131 mevcut de\u011fildir. Sadece g\u00fcnl\u00fck 50-100 bin varil kapasitesinde petrol sevkiyat\u0131 kara yolu ile sa\u011flanabilecektir. Fakat \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n da bu konudaki tavr\u0131 ve tutumu nettir. \u0130ran b\u00f6yle bir sevkiyata dahi izin vermeyecektir. Yani b\u00f6yle bir opsiyon tutarl\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<li>Basra \u00fczerinden mevcut hatlar kullan\u0131larak sat\u0131\u015f teknik olarak yap\u0131labilecektir. Fakat MIY b\u00f6yle bir ticarete asla izin vermeyecektir. Bu opsiyon da tutarl\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<li>Suriye \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7i\u015fte, ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019in kurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 K\u00fcrt Koridoru \u00f6zellikle T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin giri\u015fimleri ile sekteye u\u011fram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu koridor tamamlanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Rusya ile de anla\u015f\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, sonras\u0131nda da en az 12 milyar dolarl\u0131k bir yat\u0131r\u0131m ile 6 y\u0131l gibi bir s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda bir hat \u00e7ekilmedi\u011fi m\u00fcddet\u00e7e bu senaryo da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmeyecektir.<\/li>\n<li>Geriye en elle tutulur se\u00e7enek olarak Kerk\u00fck \u2013 Hayfa projesinin hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi kalmaktad\u0131r. Fakat b\u00f6yle bir proje i\u00e7in dahi en iyi ihtimalle 5 y\u0131l gibi bir s\u00fcreye ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r. Ayr\u0131ca kapasitesinin 1 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn olarak kurgulanaca\u011f\u0131 ve bu sebeple yakla\u015f\u0131k 1000 km uzunlu\u011funda, 42\u201dlik bir boru hatt\u0131 in\u015fa edilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, yakla\u015f\u0131k 13 milyar $\u2019l\u0131k da bir yat\u0131r\u0131ma ihtiya\u00e7 s\u00f6z konusu olacakt\u0131r. Yani her ne kadar bu opsiyon di\u011ferleri aras\u0131nda en uygulanabilir se\u00e7enek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclse de, nakliyenin Irak k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n MIY s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinden yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131, bunun sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ABD\u2019nin gerekirse yeniden DAE\u015e\u2019i kullanarak askeri m\u00fcdahalelerde bulunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi gibi se\u00e7enekler de eklendi\u011finde i\u015fin maliyeti iyice artmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Yani en uygulanabilir se\u00e7enek olan Kerk\u00fck \u2013 Hayfa projesi tercih edilirse, bu tercihe binaen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin de Ceyhan \u00fczerinden giden petrol ticaretini kesece\u011fi tahmin edilirse, bu senaryonun ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir K\u00fcrt devleti arzu eden ABD ve \u0130srail\u2019e finansal maliyeti:\n<ul>\n<li>Boru hatt\u0131 in\u015fas\u0131 i\u00e7in = 13 milyar $<\/li>\n<li>Boru hatt\u0131 5 y\u0131lda tamamlan\u0131r ve bu 5 y\u0131l T\u00fcrkiye IKBY\u2019nin petrol sevkiyat\u0131n\u0131 keserse, IKBY\u2019yi ayakta tutmak i\u00e7in ilgili petrol gelirleri kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak: 9 milyar $ x 5 y\u0131l = 45 milyar $<\/li>\n<li>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerini kullanma, g\u00fcvenli\u011fi sa\u011flama ve askeri harcamalar kalemi olarak yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar $ olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde toplam maliyet 108 milyar $ etmektedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Yani 108 milyar dolar ABD i\u00e7in dahi, projenin riskleri dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ciddi bir harcamad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Son g\u00fcnlerde ulusal medyada da g\u00fcndeme gelmeye ba\u015flayan Kerk\u00fck \u2013 Hayfa petrol boru hatt\u0131 projesine gelince:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130lgili hat 12\u201d \u00e7ap\u0131nda olacak \u015fekilde, 1935 y\u0131l\u0131nda in\u015fa edilmi\u015f ve 13 y\u0131ll\u0131\u011f\u0131na faaliyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr.<\/li>\n<li>Sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7te siyasi ve g\u00fcvenlik ile alakal\u0131 sebeplerle at\u0131l kalm\u0131\u015f ve tamamen kullan\u0131lmaz duruma gelmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>O s\u00fcre\u00e7ten bu yana, \u0130srail\u2019in s\u00fcrekli masada fakat arka planda tuttu\u011fu bir proje olarak farkl\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde dillendirilmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>Fakat g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcze hatt\u0131n sadece an\u0131lar\u0131, g\u00fczergah plan\u0131 ve baz\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131ma verileri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir\u015feyi kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Yani bu projenin hayata ge\u00e7irilmesi i\u00e7in yeniden bir hat in\u015fa etmek gerekmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki haritadan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere, b\u00f6yle bir hamle i\u00e7in:\n<ul>\n<li>Kerk\u00fck sahas\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 IKBY\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcne vermek,<\/li>\n<li>Irak s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde kalan g\u00fczergah boyunca askeri unsurlar ve ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleri ile hakimiyet te\u015fkil etmek,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu kurguya T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130ran, MIY ve Rusya gibi akt\u00f6rlerin m\u00fcdahale etmesine izin vermemek gibi siyasi ve askeri gerekler de bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>B\u00fcy\u00fck Orta Do\u011fu Projesi \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, \u0130slam d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n kalbine han\u00e7er gibi saplanarak, \u0130srail\u2019in bir \u00e7ocu\u011fu olarak d\u00fcnyaya getirilmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan K\u00fcrt Devleti\u2019nin nefes alabilmesini sa\u011flayacak ve s\u00fcrecin finansman\u0131n\u0131\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":49,"featured_media":5688,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[114],"ppma_author":[2017],"class_list":["post-5686","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-oguzhan-akyener"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Kerk\u00fck \u2013 Hafya Boru Hatt\u0131 Projesi &amp; 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