{"id":5914,"date":"2017-11-23T10:55:02","date_gmt":"2017-11-23T07:55:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=5914"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:11","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:11","slug":"israilin-ilgi-goremeyen-arama-bloklari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/israilin-ilgi-goremeyen-arama-bloklari\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130lgi G\u00f6remeyen Arama Bloklar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

O\u011fuzhan AKYENER<\/em><\/p>\n

TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131<\/em><\/p>\n

O\u011fuzhan AKYENER @ Twitter<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u0130srail\u2019in daha \u00f6nce ilgi g\u00f6rmemesi nedeni ile birka\u00e7 defa ertelenen ve sonunda Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan arama ruhsatlar\u0131 ihalesiyle bu sefer de \u00e7ok az say\u0131daki \u015firket ilgilendi. 24 ruhsatl\u0131k ilgili ihaleye sadece 4 adet Hindistan men\u015feili \u015firket ile 1 adet Energean isimli Yunanistan as\u0131ll\u0131 bir \u015firket kat\u0131l\u0131m sa\u011flad\u0131.
\nBilindi\u011fi \u00fczere, daha \u00f6nceki ihalelerde de ilgilenen \u015firket say\u0131s\u0131 bu civardayd\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u2022 Peki bu ihale s\u00fcrecinin daha \u00e7ok uzayaca\u011f\u0131 tahminlerini yapmam\u0131z\u0131n sebepleri neydi?
\n\u2022 \u0130srail\u2019in yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ilgisini neden \u00e7ekemiyordu?
\n\u2022 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu kurguda rol\u00fc ne olabilirdi?<\/p>\n

Asl\u0131nda bu konuda daha \u00f6nce de bir\u00e7ok analizimiz ve yorumumuz olmu\u015ftu. Bunlardan baz\u0131lar\u0131na; 21 May\u0131s 2017 tarihinde yay\u0131nlanan: https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/israilin-ertelenen-arama-ihalesi-turkiyenin-rolu\/ ve 25 Haziran 2017 tarihinde yay\u0131nlanm\u0131\u015f olan: https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/israilin-hidrokarbon-arama-ruhsati-ihalesi-yine-ertelendi\/ ilgili \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n linklerinden eri\u015febilirsiniz.
\n\u015eimdi yukar\u0131da ortaya att\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z sorular \u00fczerinden, ya\u015fanan s\u00fcreci de\u011ferlendirirsek:
\n\u2022 Bu ihale s\u00fcrecinin daha \u00e7ok uzayaca\u011f\u0131na dair tahminlerimizin sebebi, mevcut durumda bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fin olmamas\u0131 ve \u0130srail taraf\u0131n\u0131n izledi\u011fi strateji ile de bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm elde edilmeyece\u011finin a\u015fikar olmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bu sebeple bu s\u00fcrecin daha \u00e7ok uzayaca\u011f\u0131 tahminlerini de \u015fimdiden yapabilmek yerinde olacakt\u0131r.
\n\u2022 \u0130lgili ihale s\u00fcrecinin yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n neden ilgisini \u00e7ekmedi\u011fine gelince:
\nBu s\u00fcrecin daha rahat anla\u015f\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in, Do\u011fu Akdeniz ile ilgilenen \u00f6rnek bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fc ile de\u011ferlendirme yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda;<\/p>\n

\uf0fc Do\u011fu Akdeniz ile ilgileniyorsunuz.
\n\uf0fc Eri\u015filebilir sismik veriler Levant havzas\u0131nda bir potansiyel oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.
\n\uf0fc \u0130srail\u2019deki ke\u015fifler de bu potansiyeli kan\u0131tl\u0131yor.
\n\uf0fc Fakat as\u0131l potansiyelin Kuzeye yani L\u00fcbnan\u2019a do\u011fru devam etti\u011fini, uzman yerbilimcilerinizden \u00f6\u011freniyorsunuz.
\n\uf0fc G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019ta da Zohr sahas\u0131n\u0131n ke\u015ffi akabinde yeni \u00fcmitler s\u00f6z konusu gibi bir alg\u0131 olu\u015fturulsa da, mevcut veriler, potansiyelin bat\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade ediyor. Yani G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n 3. Arama ihalesi belki M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019da hali haz\u0131rda ke\u015fifler yapm\u0131\u015f olsan\u0131z, sizi ilgilendirecekti fakat yapmad\u0131 iseniz, \u00e7ok da tercih edilebilir olmayacakt\u0131r.
\n\uf0fc Ayr\u0131ca G\u00fcney K\u0131br\u0131s b\u00f6lgedeki en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc devlet olan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ve onun himayesindeki Kuzey K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n deniz alanlar\u0131n\u0131 da ihlal etmektedir. Zaten ke\u015ffini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Afrodit sahas\u0131n\u0131 bile geli\u015ftirebilmi\u015f de\u011fildir. Yani \u00e7ok da ilgilenilebilecek bir yat\u0131r\u0131m alan\u0131 de\u011fildir.
\n\uf0fc T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda 11. Parseldeki arama \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n neticeleri \u015fi\u015firilen gaz potansiyeli balonunun da inmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.
\n\uf0fc Geriye kalan L\u00fcbnan ve \u0130srail aras\u0131nda tercih yapman\u0131z gerekirse;
\n\uf0fc \u0130srail\u2019de hali haz\u0131rda ke\u015fifler vard\u0131r. Fakat b\u00fcy\u00fck yap\u0131lar zaten test edilmi\u015ftir. Yani tahmininiz \u00fczerine geriye daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bal\u0131klar kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bir de yap\u0131lan ke\u015fifler dahi \u00fcretime kolayl\u0131kla al\u0131namam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Diyelim t\u00fcm bunlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131p, \u0130srail\u2019i tercih ettiniz;<\/p>\n

\uf0fc T\u00fcm riskleri al\u0131p, ruhsat\u0131n en az %25\u2019ini alarak, operat\u00f6r oldunuz,
\n\uf0fc Arama planlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131, \u0130srail\u2019li yetkililer ile yo\u011fun m\u00fczakereler neticesinde kabul ettirdiniz,
\n\uf0fc Sondaj\u0131 yapt\u0131n\u0131z, \u015eans\u0131n\u0131za, ke\u015fif de yapt\u0131n\u0131z!
\n\uf0fc Sonra?
\n\uf0fc S\u0131ra geldi geli\u015ftirme planlar\u0131na ve son yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131na.
\n\uf0fc Lakin nas\u0131l bir \u00fcretim yapacaks\u0131n\u0131z?
\n\uf0fc En \u00f6nemlisi \u00fcretti\u011finiz gaz\u0131 nereye satacak ve kar edeceksiniz?
\n\uf0fc B\u00fcy\u00fck yap\u0131lar zaten test edildi\u011fi i\u00e7in siz zaten k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck yap\u0131lara takip olup, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir rezerv bulabildiniz,
\n\uf0fc Ke\u015ffetti\u011finiz k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck rezervi sa\u011f\u0131p, \u00fcretimi satmak i\u00e7in bir LNG tesisi hatta y\u00fczer LNG tesisi kursan\u0131z; \u00e7ok maliyetli; proje kendini kurtaramaz!
\n\uf0fc Karaya sevk edip, \u0130srail\u2019de i\u00e7 piyasaya satsan\u0131z; eski \u00fcretim yapan sahalar\u0131n daha ucuz olan gazlar\u0131 ile, \u0130srail\u2019in vergilendirme ve ceza sistemleri ile, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131y\u0131 s\u00fcrekli engelleyen komiteleri ve mevzuatlar\u0131 ile m\u00fccadele verirken, bir hayli zorlanacaks\u0131n\u0131z.
\n\uf0fc Bir de acaba i\u00e7 piyasada o derece b\u00fcy\u00fck bir talep olacak m\u0131?
\n\uf0fc \u00dcretiminizin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc i\u00e7 piyasaya zaten vermek zorundas\u0131n\u0131z. O zaman karada kuraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bir tesise gaz sevkiyat\u0131 yapmak gerekli. Tamam yapt\u0131n\u0131z. Kalan k\u0131sm\u0131 da ihra\u00e7 etmek i\u00e7in, \u201canti trust\u201d komitesini bir \u015fekilde ikna ettiniz.<\/p>\n

Peki bu ad\u0131mda gaz\u0131 kime ihra\u00e7 edeceksiniz?
\n\uf0fc Bir LNG tesisi boyunuzu a\u015far.
\n\uf0fc M\u0131s\u0131r\u2019a sevk etseniz, farzedin ki; bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te y\u0131l oldu 2025; orada da bo\u015f kapasite yok!
\n\uf0fc \u00dcrd\u00fcn, Suriye piyasalar\u0131nda da talep yok.
\n\uf0fc Filistin gibi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir marketin zaten \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 riskleri var.
\n\uf0fc Avrupa\u2019ya da nakliyat imkan\u0131 yok!
\n\uf0fc O zaman geriye kim kal\u0131yor?
\n\uf0fc T\u00fcrkiye?
\n\uf0fc En g\u00fczel, en g\u00fcvenilir ve en b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar! Fakat nas\u0131l gaz\u0131 oraya ula\u015ft\u0131racaks\u0131n\u0131z?
\n\uf0fc Ortada bir boru hatt\u0131 ve somut bir anla\u015fma yok ise: \u0130MKANSIZ!
\n\uf0fc Yani ke\u015ffi yapsan\u0131z da, geli\u015ftirme senaryolar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130srail\u2019deki ilgili kurumlara b\u00fcy\u00fck zorluklar ile kabul ettirseniz de; \u00fcretece\u011finiz gaz\u0131 satma konusundaki belirsizlikler sebebi ile bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc saha geli\u015ftirme i\u00e7in son yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131n\u0131 alamayacaks\u0131n\u0131z!
\n\uf0fc O halde? Siz de b\u00fcy\u00fck oyuncular\u0131n tercih etti\u011fi ve bakir oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bal\u0131klar bulma \u015fans\u0131n\u0131z olan L\u00fcbnan\u2019daki arama ihalesi ile ilgileneceksiniz.
\nBir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fcyle k\u0131saca analiz edildi\u011finde, \u0130srail\u2019deki arama ihalesinin neden ertelendi\u011fi, neden ilgi g\u00f6rmedi\u011fi ve bundan sonra da neden yeniden ertelenebilece\u011fi kolayl\u0131kla anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.
\nMe\u015fhur Leviathan sahas\u0131n\u0131n dahi, \u00fcretece\u011fi gaz\u0131 nereye sataca\u011f\u0131 tam olarak netle\u015fmeden, birka\u00e7 erteleme neticesinde, (uluslar aras\u0131 alg\u0131y\u0131 d\u00fczeltmek maksatl\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fcken) son yat\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 al\u0131nmas\u0131 gibi, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc ve ola\u011fan d\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir durumun arkas\u0131ndaki sebepleri daha iyi anlayabileceksiniz.
\n\u2022 Demek ki, bu kurguda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin bu konudaki kritik rol\u00fcn\u00fc bir yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00f6z\u00fcyle de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde dahi kolayl\u0131kla idrak etmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olacakt\u0131r.
\nT\u00fcrkiye ile bir anla\u015fma ve ihra\u00e7 hatt\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olacak ise de; bunun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00f6lgedeki \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131n kabul edilmesi ve Kuzey K\u0131br\u0131s T\u00fcrk Cumhuriyeti\u2019nin de haklar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6zetilmesinden ge\u00e7ece\u011finin bilinmesi gerekmektedir.
\nDi\u011fer bir ifade ile \u0130srail\u2019in: askeri \u2013 siyasi \u2013 finansal olarak arkas\u0131nda durmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015f\u0131mar\u0131k Rum kesiminin haddini a\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n, s\u0131n\u0131r ihlalleri yapmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7mesi ve (\u015faibeli y\u00f6nleri olsa dahi) Afrodit sahas\u0131nda Kuzey K\u0131br\u0131s\u2019\u0131n da hakk\u0131 oldu\u011funu unutmamas\u0131 elzemdir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 O\u011fuzhan AKYENER @ Twitter   \u0130srail\u2019in daha \u00f6nce ilgi g\u00f6rmemesi nedeni ile birka\u00e7 defa ertelenen ve sonunda Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan arama ruhsatlar\u0131 ihalesiyle bu sefer…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5915,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[359,798,339,331],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-5914","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-akdeniz","tag-arama-bloklari","tag-guney-kibris","tag-israil"],"yoast_head":"\n\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130lgi G\u00f6remeyen Arama Bloklar\u0131 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/israilin-ilgi-goremeyen-arama-bloklari\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"\u0130srail\u2019in \u0130lgi G\u00f6remeyen Arama Bloklar\u0131 - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"O\u011fuzhan AKYENER TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131 O\u011fuzhan AKYENER @ Twitter   \u0130srail\u2019in daha \u00f6nce ilgi g\u00f6rmemesi nedeni ile birka\u00e7 defa ertelenen ve sonunda Kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan arama ruhsatlar\u0131 ihalesiyle bu sefer...\" 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