{"id":6500,"date":"2018-07-22T22:49:47","date_gmt":"2018-07-22T19:49:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=6500"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:08","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:08","slug":"abdnin-iran-petrol-ihracatina-yonelik-yaptirim-hamlesi-dengeler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/abdnin-iran-petrol-ihracatina-yonelik-yaptirim-hamlesi-dengeler\/","title":{"rendered":"ABD\u2019N\u0130N \u0130RAN Petrol \u0130hracat\u0131na Y\u00f6nelik Yapt\u0131r\u0131m Hamlesi &amp; Dengeler"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><span style=\"color: #008080;\">ABD \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nce ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da hakimiyetini artt\u0131rma ve en yak\u0131n m\u00fcttefiklerinden olan \u0130srail i\u00e7in tehdit konumunda olan \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma stratejileri do\u011frultusunda yeni hamleleriyle enerji piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n dikkatini \u00e7ekmeye devam etmektedir.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ge\u00e7en hafta yap\u0131lan OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131 \u00fczerinden \u00e7ok da fazla zaman ge\u00e7meden, ABD d\u0131\u015f i\u015fleri kanal\u0131 ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, m\u00fcttefiklerinin 4 Kas\u0131ma kadar \u0130ran\u2019dan yapt\u0131klar\u0131 petrol ithalatlar\u0131n\u0131 sonland\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 istemi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Asl\u0131nda ABD n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmadan \u00e7ekildi\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcnden bu yana bu minvalde beklentiler olaca\u011f\u0131 zaten beklenmektedir. O halde, ABD\u2019nin bu talebi ne anlama gelmektedir?<\/p>\n<p>\u0130ran hali haz\u0131rda k\u00fcresel piyasalara ortalama olarak 2,5 milyon varil civar\u0131nda petrol ve hafif petrol olarak niteleyebilece\u011fimiz kondensat arz etmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu arz\u0131n hangi \u00fclkelere yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik e\u015fli\u011finde genel anlamda incelendi\u011finde:<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6501\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"485\" height=\"584\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Grafik 1: \u0130ran Petrol\u00fcn\u00fcn En B\u00fcy\u00fck \u0130thalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 (Kaynak : <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/Who-Was-Buying-Iranian-Oil-And-What-Happens-Next.html\">https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/Who-Was-Buying-Iranian-Oil-And-What-Happens-Next.html<\/a>)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>En b\u00fcy\u00fck ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00c7in, Hindistan, G\u00fcney Kore ve T\u00fcrkiye oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den sonra s\u0131ralamay\u0131 \u0130talya, Japonya, BAE, \u0130spanya, Fransa ve Yunanistan gibi \u00fclkeler almaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Not: \u0130lgili grafik ortalama bir rakam ifade etmektedir. \u0130lgili ticari hacimler zaman ve ko\u015fullara g\u00f6re farkl\u0131l\u0131k g\u00f6stermekle birlikte s\u0131ralama hemen hemen de\u011fi\u015fmemektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Demek ki, ABD bu ithalat\u00e7\u0131 \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak ve \u0130ran ile ticaretlerini sonland\u0131rmalar\u0131n\u0131 talep edecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Peki, bu talebi ne kadar tutarl\u0131d\u0131r ve ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olabilecek midir?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u015funu belirtmek gerekir ki, ABD\u2019nin bu bask\u0131lar\u0131, daha \u00f6nce de oldu\u011fu gibi (T\u00fcrkiye hari\u00e7) di\u011fer Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fcttefikleri nezdinde etkili olabilecek iken, \u00c7in, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi as\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131lar nezdinde etkili olamayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c7in ve Hindistan\u2019daki baz\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131lar zaten yerel bas\u0131nlar\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin ilgili bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n kendilerini etkilemeyece\u011fini dile getirmi\u015flerdir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu tablo a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafik nezdinde de incelendi\u011finde:<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-6505\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/22.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"311\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Grafik 2: Daha \u00d6nceki ABD Ambargolar\u0131 ve \u0130ran \u0130thalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndaki De\u011fi\u015fimler (Kaynak: Bloomberg)<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere, ilgili yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar genel anlamda Asya \u2013 Pasifik \u00fclkeleri nezdinde sadece G\u00fcney Kore ve Japonya\u2019y\u0131 etkilemi\u015f, Avrupa nezdinde ise T\u00fcrkiye hari\u00e7 b\u00fct\u00fcn ilgili Avrupa \u00fclkelerini etkilemi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u015eimdi de ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde olabilece\u011fi tahmin edilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Fakat bu sefer kurgulanabilecek senaryolarda, art\u0131k \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n bu tarz ambargolara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok daha fazla haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011fu, farkl\u0131 alternatif planlar\u0131n\u0131n altyap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu, ayr\u0131ca bu ambargolara Rusya, \u00c7in, \u0130ngiltere, Fransa, \u0130talya, Almanya, Japonya gibi \u00fclkelerin pek de s\u0131cak yakla\u015fmad\u0131klar\u0131, hatta kar\u015f\u0131 olduklar\u0131 bilinmektedir.<\/p>\n<p>Yani her ne kadar, Shell ve Total gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck Avrupal\u0131 \u015firketler di\u011fer projeleriyle ilgili hususlar\u0131 da dikkate alarak, \u00f6zellikle ABD\u2019nin kontrol\u00fcnde olan para transferi ve uluslararas\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k hususlar\u0131 sebebiyle ilgili ticaretlerini sonland\u0131rm\u0131\u015flarsa da, \u0130ran\u2019da farkl\u0131 alanlarda yat\u0131r\u0131ma devam eden \u00e7ok say\u0131da yabanc\u0131 \u015firket bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u0130ran\u2019da arama, \u00fcretim ve servis alanlar\u0131nda yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yapan, paralar\u0131n\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019dan alan ve 2015\u2019te imzalanan n\u00fckleer protokole g\u00fcvenerek uzun d\u00f6nemli teminatlar\u0131n ve anla\u015fmalar\u0131n alt\u0131na imza atan \u00e7ok say\u0131da Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u015firket de bulunmaktad\u0131r. Zaten biraz da bu gibi sebeplerle ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda n\u00fckleer anla\u015fmaya imza atan devletlerin hi\u00e7biri ABD\u2019nin ilgili karar\u0131nda hem fikir olamam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Yani hi\u00e7bir Avrupa \u00fclkesinde yada Japonya\u2019da bu karar\u0131n kabulu ve uygulamas\u0131 eskisi kadar kolay ve h\u0131zl\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. Diren\u00e7 haliyle daha fazla olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Zaten en k\u00f6t\u00fc durumlarda dahi, ticari swap, genellikle Dubai merkezli paravan \u015firketler \u00fczerinden crude swap, farkl\u0131 para birimleri ile ticaret gibi opsiyonlar\u0131 ile (\u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu genellikle Yahudi sermayeli olan) ABD\u2019li \u015firketlerce dahi ambargolar\u0131n kolayl\u0131kla delindi\u011fi ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f bir tecr\u00fcbedir.<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile bu talep \u00e7ok da uygulanabilir ve eskisi kadar ciddi etkiler do\u011fruran bir hamle olmayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Yani daha \u00f6nce oldu\u011fu gibi baz\u0131 Avrupa\u2019l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck al\u0131c\u0131lar, \u0130ran ile ticaretlerini kesecek, \u00c7in, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye ile k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli t\u00fcccarlar ise bir \u015fekilde alternatif \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcmler ile ithalatlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Tabii bu s\u00fcrecin bir neticesi olarak, gayri resmi petrol ticareti yine zirve yapacakt\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle gayri resmi \u2013 kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u2013 durumuna d\u00fc\u015fen petrol hacimlerinden \u0130srail\u2019li t\u00fcccarlar\u0131n ve ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck paralar kazanabildi\u011fi ger\u00e7e\u011fi dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa, bu hamlenin uluslararas\u0131 g\u00fcvenlik nezdinde de olumsuz etkileri olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, rafinerilerin de belli niteliklerde petrol\u00fc i\u015fleyebildikleri ve petrol ticaretinin de bu minvaldeki sat\u0131c\u0131lar ile belli periyotlar\u0131 kapsayacak ve ba\u011flay\u0131c\u0131 olacak \u015fekilde yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 da dikkate al\u0131n\u0131rsa, ABD\u2019nin bu talebine uymak zorunda kalacak yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zararlar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lamak durumunda kalabilecek olan ilgili Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ciddi anlamda rahats\u0131zl\u0131k duyacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilen bu tablodan da anla\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fi \u00fczere, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n \u00fcretim seviyesinin baz\u0131 \u0130ranl\u0131 yetkilelerce vurguland\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi 2 milyon varil \/ g\u00fcn seviyelerinde olmasa da, ortalamada 1,5 \u2013 1,7 milyon varil \/ g\u00fcn aras\u0131nda sabit devam edebilece\u011fi beklenebilecektir. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa \u00fclkelerinden kaynaklanabilecek siyasi diren\u00e7, ilgili karar\u0131n etkilerini daha da fazla esnetebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u00c7in, Hindistan ve T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkelerin bu ambargoyu delmek i\u00e7in ne gibi alternatifleri bulunmaktad\u0131r?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Yukar\u0131da bahsedildi\u011fi \u00fczere, ticari swap, crude swap, kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticaret gibi bir\u00e7ok alternatif se\u00e7ene\u011fin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u00e7ok daha legal olan ilgili bankalar aras\u0131nda yerel para birimleri ak\u0131\u015f\u0131 kullan\u0131larak yap\u0131labilecek alternatifler de mevcuttur. Tabii bu alternatiflere de ek olarak; Mart 2018\u2019de \u201c\u00c7in, uzun s\u00fcredir \u00fczerinde \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 INE (\u015eanghay Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Borsas\u0131)\u2019yi devreye alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu kapsamda ilgili borsada Dubai, Umman, Masila (Yemen), Basra, Katar, Upper Zakum (BAE) ve Shangli (\u00c7in) men\u015feili petrol t\u00fcrleri olmak \u00fczere 7 farkl\u0131 gravitede sat\u0131\u015f hali haz\u0131rda ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130lgili borsa kapsam\u0131nda hem yerel para birimi (yani Yuan ile) ticaret imkan\u0131 elde edilebilecek hem de ileri tarihli teslimatl\u0131 ve fiyat sabitlemeli i\u015flemler yap\u0131labilecektir. Ayr\u0131ca yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da her zaman borsaya aktif olarak kat\u0131labilecek ve ticarette yerlerini alabilecektir. Yeni faaliyete ba\u015flayan ve Yuan ile i\u015fleyen INE\u2019nin, ABD dolar\u0131 ile faaliyetlerine devam eden Londra\u2019daki Brent\u2019e ve New York\u2019taki WTI (West Texas Intermediate)\u2019a rakip olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir. Hali haz\u0131rda di\u011fer iki rakibine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kapasiteye ve ticaret hacmine sahip olsa da, d\u00fcnyadaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck ham petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olan \u00c7in\u2019in bu borsa ile hem fiyat belirleme, hem ticari kapasitesini artt\u0131rma, hem k\u00fcresel fiyatlara etki etme, hem de \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck mebla\u011flarda i\u015flem hacmi olan k\u00fcresel bir borsaya sahip olabilme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli avantajlar\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle uzun vadeli sat\u0131\u015flarda ve ileri tarihli \u2013 sabit fiyatl\u0131 kontratlar ile INE fiyatlar\u0131na ve dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile Brent ve WTI fiyatlar\u0131na da etki edilebilece\u011fi beklenmektedir. Fakat bunun i\u00e7in tabiki INE\u2019nin i\u015flem hacminin \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gerekmektedir.\u201d (Kaynak: <a href=\"https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/6258-2\/\">https:\/\/tespam.org\/tr\/6258-2\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>Yani, bu borsa sayesinde \u0130ran petrol\u00fcn\u00fc yuan kuru ile b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya \u00fclkelerine pazarlayabilecektir. Bu da ABD\u2019nin yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 etkileyen \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir arka kap\u0131 olarak dikkat \u00e7ekmektedir. Bu arka kap\u0131da olu\u015facak trafik artarsa, ABD zaten ilgili karar\u0131nda geri ad\u0131m atmak durumunda da kalacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>K\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131na ve fiyatlar\u0131na bu s\u00fcrecin nas\u0131l bir etkisi olacakt\u0131r?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bu minvalde \u0130ran\u2019dan kaynaklanacak arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamas\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilmek i\u00e7in ABD\u2019li yetkililer k\u00f6rfez \u00fclkeleriyle temasa ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6rne\u011fin d\u00fcn Suudi yetkililer; Temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde ortalama arz kapasitelerini g\u00fcnl\u00fck 11 milyon varil seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131karacaklar\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klaman\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 rahatlatma anlam\u0131nda etkisinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, ABD taraf\u0131ndan ba\u015flat\u0131lan bu hamlenin zaten Suudi Arabistan (ve Katar krizi s\u00fcrecinde olu\u015fturulan ilgili Arap ittifak\u0131yla)\u00a0 ile birlikte uygulanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. Ayr\u0131ca Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n bu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, hen\u00fcz bir hafta \u00f6nce OPEC \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde al\u0131nan kararlara da ba\u011fl\u0131 kalmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da bir kez daha g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu minvalde ABD\u2019de her ne kadar stoklarda ciddi anlamda azalma olsa da, 10,9 milyon varil \/ g\u00fcn seviyelerini koruyabilen \u00fcretim miktar\u0131, Suudi Arabistan ve muhtemelen BAE gibi baz\u0131 \u00fcreticilerin arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131ndan vazge\u00e7ip, ihracatlar\u0131n\u0131 belli oranda artt\u0131rmas\u0131, \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n arz\u0131nda beklenebilecek olas\u0131 azalma miktar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilecek ve fiyatlar\u0131 k\u0131smen de olsa kontrol alt\u0131nda tutabilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Lakin bu noktada Kanada, Libya, Nijerya, Venezuela, Irak, Kuveyt, Kazakistan, Rusya gibi daha bir\u00e7ok \u00fcreticinin de tav\u0131rlar\u0131 ve durumlar\u0131 \u00f6nemlidir. \u00d6rne\u011fin Libya\u2019da devam eden i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar sebebiyle g\u00fcnl\u00fck 100 bin varil civar\u0131nda, Kanada\u2019da da teknik sebeplerle 350 bin varil civar\u0131nda ve yine yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 ayd\u0131r s\u00fcren finansal ve teknik sebeplerle Venezuela\u2019da 600 bin varil civar\u0131nda arz miktar\u0131nda azalma ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu tarz geli\u015fmelerin de arz noktas\u0131nda etkileri olaca\u011f\u0131 kesindir. Yine de, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir arz kapasitesinin rahatl\u0131kla 11 milyon varil \/ g\u00fcn civar\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n dahi tek ba\u015f\u0131na \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n azalacak olan arz kapasitesinin \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layabilece\u011fi tahmin edilebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Yani \u0130ran arz\u0131nda beklenilen olas\u0131 700 \u2013 800 bin varil \/ g\u00fcnl\u00fck azalma di\u011fer \u00fcreticiler taraf\u0131ndan (b\u00fcy\u00fck bir keyifle) kar\u015f\u0131lanabilecektir. (Tabii bu noktada yine ilgili petrol\u00fcn kimyasal nitelikleri \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.)<\/p>\n<p>Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile bir\u00e7ok de\u011fi\u015fkenin e\u015f zamanl\u0131 de\u011ferlendirilmesi ihtiyac\u0131 ile birlikte, k\u00fcresel petrol arz\u0131 ve fiyatlar \u00e7ok da abart\u0131l\u0131 bir etki ya\u015famayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc zaten piyasalarda arz fazlas\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. Kald\u0131 ki, ABD\u2019nin dolar paritesini y\u00fckseltme karar\u0131 ve merkez bankas\u0131 politikalar\u0131 da petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde negatif etki olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Peki bu s\u00fcrecin T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ne gibi \u00a0etkileri olacakt\u0131r?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u015funu belirtmek gerekir ki, T\u00fcrkiye daha \u00f6nce de oldu\u011fu gibi kendi ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z kararlar\u0131n\u0131 alabilecek iradeye sahiptir. Ve kom\u015fusu olan \u0130ran\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131lan bu haks\u0131z m\u00fcdahaleye kar\u015f\u0131 alternatif planlar geli\u015ftirecek, bu planlar\u0131 uygulamaya ge\u00e7irecek ve kendi arz g\u00fcvenli\u011fini sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r. Bu minvalde T\u00fcrkiye hakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu kadar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ve siyasi olarak da etkilidir. Bu sebeple ilgili alternatif \u00f6nlemler ve giri\u015fimler ile bir\u00e7ok dengeyi de\u011fi\u015ftirecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcrecin borsaya, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilemesi ile d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131na ve borsa da yer alan T\u00dcPRA\u015e gibi \u015firketlere de k\u0131sa vadeli ve ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcreyle negatif etkilerinin olabilece\u011fi beklenmektedir. Hatta ABD\u2019nin ilgili pazarl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinde di\u011fer sekt\u00f6rlere y\u00f6neliklik farkl\u0131 g\u00fcmr\u00fck ve yapt\u0131r\u0131m politikalar\u0131na giri\u015fmesi de muhtemeldir. Sonu\u00e7ta d\u00fcnyada ABD\u2019nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ticaret ve ekonomik anlamda liderli\u011fi koruma sava\u015f\u0131 ya\u015fanmaktad\u0131r. Bunun da d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkesinde ve piyasas\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi \u00fclkemizde de yo\u011fun etkilerinin hissedilebilece\u011fi beklenebilecektir. Lakin, bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 tamamland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00fcn dengelerin \u00fclkemiz lehine d\u00f6nece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Tam da bu noktada yorumlar yap\u0131l\u0131rken, art\u0131k d\u00fcnyadaki bir\u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fcc\u00fcn ABD\u2019nin ve Pentagon\u2019un yan\u0131nda olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereklidir.<\/p>\n<p>Yoksa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin her zaman mevcut rafinaj tesislerinde baz\u0131 modifikasyonlar ile ticari tercihlerini de\u011fi\u015ftirme imkan\u0131 da bulunmaktad\u0131r. Lakin, genel resim bu tablonun \u00e7ok \u00f6tesindedir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye de genel tabloyu bu \u015fekilde yorumlamakta ve \u00e7ok daha geni\u015f perspektifli neticeler do\u011furacak uzun vadeli at\u0131l\u0131mlar yapmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, ABD\u2019nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bu hamlelerin ticaretin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, siyasi ve politik sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 da s\u00f6z konusudur. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, ABD\u2019nin bu hamleleri ile beklentilerinin en az\u0131ndan:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u0130ran\u2019da i\u00e7 kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131rarak bir rejim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine sebep olmak,<\/li>\n<li>Yemen ve Suriye\u2019de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n direncini k\u0131rmak,<\/li>\n<li>L\u00fcbnan ve Bahreyn\u2019de \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkisini azaltmak,<\/li>\n<li>Yeni ortak bir askeri birlik haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde olan Avrupal\u0131 m\u00fcttefiklerine bir kez daha a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hissettirmek,<\/li>\n<li>Ticareti sonland\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bildi\u011fi \u00c7in, Hindistan, T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 bu durumu siyasi ve ekonomik olarak kullanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmak oldu\u011fu tahmin edilebilecektir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; ABD \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nce ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu\u2019da hakimiyetini artt\u0131rma ve en yak\u0131n m\u00fcttefiklerinden olan \u0130srail i\u00e7in tehdit konumunda olan \u0130ran\u2019a y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma stratejileri do\u011frultusunda\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-6500","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-kose-yazilari"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ABD\u2019N\u0130N \u0130RAN Petrol \u0130hracat\u0131na Y\u00f6nelik Yapt\u0131r\u0131m Hamlesi &amp; 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