{"id":6832,"date":"2019-01-25T09:53:28","date_gmt":"2019-01-25T06:53:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=6832"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:14:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:14:06","slug":"venezuela-krizinde-enerji-boyutu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/venezuela-krizinde-enerji-boyutu\/","title":{"rendered":"VENEZUELA KR\u0130Z\u0130NDE ENERJ\u0130 BOYUTU"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Venezuela<\/strong> denildi\u011finde hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ilk olarak akla sahip oldu\u011fu <strong>petrol kaynaklar\u0131<\/strong> gelmektedir. 303 milyar varillik kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f <strong>rezervleri<\/strong> ile, hali haz\u0131rda <strong>Venezuela<\/strong> d\u00fcnyadaki en fazla <strong>petrol kayna\u011f\u0131na<\/strong> sahip olan devlettir. Tabii teknik, ekonomik, finansal, mevzuatsal, y\u00f6netimsel gibi farkl\u0131 sebepler y\u00fcz\u00fcnden \u00fcretim ve ihra\u00e7 potansiyeli a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ilk on i\u00e7erisinde dahi de\u011fildir.<\/p>\n<p>Ocak 2019 itibar\u0131 ile <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretiminin 1,5 milyon varilin biraz alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu tahmin edilmektedir. Bu \u00fcretimin ise 1,2 milyon varilinin ihra\u00e7 edildi\u011fi, bu ihracat\u0131n da; 0,4 milyon varililinin ABD\u2019ye, 0,3 milyon varilinin Hindistan\u2019a ve 0,25 milyon varilinin ise \u00c7in\u2019e yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinmektedir. Yani hali haz\u0131rda <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fc\u015fterisi yine kendisi ile en fazla u\u011fra\u015fan \u00fclke konumunda olan ABD\u2019dir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019n\u0131n <strong>petrol kaynaklar\u0131<\/strong> ve bu kaynaklarla ilgili birka\u00e7 \u00f6nemli hususa daha de\u011finecek olursak;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Sahip oldu\u011fu kaynaklar\u0131n \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011fu y\u00fcksek miktarda s\u00fclf\u00fcr i\u00e7eren, <strong>a\u011f\u0131r petrol<\/strong> olarak nitelendirilen yap\u0131dad\u0131r. Yani bu kaynaklar\u0131n \u00fcretimi maliyetli ve zordur. \u00dcretimin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fcksek teknolojiye, insan kaynaklar\u0131na, ekipmanlara, bilgi ve tecr\u00fcbeye ve ciddi anlamda finansa ihtiya\u00e7 bulunmaktad\u0131r. Di\u011fer bir ifade ile herhangi bir ambargo, \u00fclke i\u00e7i huzursuzluk, finans kesintisi gibi durumlar direk olarak \u00fcretim kapasitesini etkilemektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Bunlara ek olarak mevcut y\u00fczey tesisleri \u00e7o\u011funlukla eskidir. Bu da her ne kadar birim \u00fcretim maliyetlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck g\u00f6sterse de, bak\u0131m \u2013 onar\u0131m ve i\u015fletme maliyetlerini bir hayli artt\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Petrol ihracat\u0131, \u00fclke gelirlerinin %50\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, ambargolar, y\u00fcksek enflasyon gibi negatif etmenler \u00fclke ekonomisini ve haliyle \u00fcretimin devaml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak olan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 da olumsuz etkilemi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>Mevcut durumda \u00fclkede birim petrol \u00fcretim maliyeti 20 \u2013 25 $\/varil civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. Fakat \u00fclke b\u00fct\u00e7esindeki petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nezdindeki k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131n\u0131n 100 $ band\u0131n\u0131n dahi \u00e7ok \u00f6tesinde oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>\u00dclkenin petrol sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fc\u015fterisi ABD\u2019dir. 2015\u2019te ABD\u2019ye yap\u0131lan ihracat 840 000 varil \/ g\u00fcn seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde ise yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Finans s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 sebebiyle \u00fclkede hizmet veren, y\u00fcksek teknolojiye sahip uluslararas\u0131 servis \u015firketleri <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019y\u0131 terketmi\u015flerdir. Servis hizmetlerinin neredeyse hepsinin muhatab\u0131 olan Milli Petrol \u015eirketi\u2019nin ilgili \u015firketlere (neredeyse hepsi ABD men\u015feili) b\u00fcy\u00fck mebla\u011flarda borcu birikmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>Mevcut yasalar, saha i\u015fletmesinde yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n en fazla %40 oran\u0131nda proje orta\u011f\u0131 olabilmesine izin vermekte bu da uluslararas\u0131 sermayenin hevesini k\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>ENI, Total, Chevron, CNPC, Shell, Rosneft, Repsol, Inpex, ONGC, Perenco ve Sinopec \u00fclkedeki \u00f6nemli yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lardand\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>ABD\u2019nin uygulamaya koydu\u011fu ambargolar hen\u00fcz direk olarak petrol ticaretini engellememi\u015ftir. Lakin, finasal, lojistik, ekonomik ve teknik etkileri sebebiyle petrol sekt\u00f6r\u00fc bu durumdan olumsuz etkilenmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>Do\u011falgaz konusunda ise, <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>, 5,8 trilyon m3 civar\u0131nda bir <strong>rezerve<\/strong> sahiptir. Y\u0131ll\u0131k \u00fcretimi 35 bcm civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bu \u00fcretimin yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 20 bcm\u2019i i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim dahilinde de\u011ferlendirilmekte, kalan\u0131 ise <strong>a\u011f\u0131r petrol<\/strong> kurtar\u0131m oranlar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Mevcut milli petrol \u015firketi olan PdVSA\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu ABD\u2019de yer almaktad\u0131r. PdVSA\u2019n\u0131n rafinaj kapasitesinin neredeyse %30\u2019u ABD i\u00e7erisindedir.<\/li>\n<li>\u00dclkenin finansal s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zebilmek maksatl\u0131 da\u011f\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131 (ve \u00f6deyemedi\u011fi) kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z tahvillerin \u00e7o\u011funa \u00c7in ve Rus men\u015feili \u015firketler sahiptir. \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019ya bu minvaldeki ciddi bor\u00e7lanma, siyasi yak\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, daha derin bir ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k boyutu kazand\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Hatta yak\u0131n zamanda bu tahvillerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcne sahip olan Rus Rosneft firmas\u0131, PdVSA\u2019n\u0131n ABD\u2019deki rafinerilerinin %49\u2019unu almak i\u00e7in giri\u015fimlerde bulunmu\u015f ve bu giri\u015fimler ABD\u2019li makamlarca engellenmi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<li>ABD\u2019den de <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik ciddi anlamda petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u00f6z konusudur.<\/li>\n<li>Bu alanlardaki ticaretler hen\u00fcz ambargoya dahil edilmemi\u015ftir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Fakat ABD\u2019nin muhalefet liderini devlet ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak tan\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ilan etmesi akabinde ba\u015flayan d\u0131\u015f m\u00fcdahale neticesinde gerilen ortam\u0131n s\u00fcreci \u00e7ok daha girit bir duruma getirece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Peki gerilen bu ortamda <strong>enerji<\/strong> alan\u0131nda kim nas\u0131l etkilenebilecektir?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u015fu ifade edilmelidir ki, ilgili etkilerin ya\u015fanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in, gerilimin t\u0131rmanmas\u0131 ve ABD yada <strong>Venezuela<\/strong> y\u00f6netimlerinin petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri ticaretine k\u0131s\u0131tlama getirmesi gerekmektedir. Mevcut durumda psikolojik bir gerginlik s\u00f6z konusu olsa da, k\u0131s\u0131tlama hususunda ivedi bir hamle yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00e7ok da muhtemel de\u011fildir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc iki taraf da hen\u00fcz buna haz\u0131r de\u011fildir. Yine de, bu ihtimalin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fi varsay\u0131l\u0131r ise;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten en fazla etkilenecek olan, <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019dan <strong>a\u011f\u0131r petrol<\/strong> ithalat\u0131 yapan ABD\u2019li rafinerilerdir. Bu rafinerilerin haliyle teknik olarak en verimli i\u015fleyebildikleri petrol a\u011f\u0131r ve y\u00fcksek s\u00fclf\u00fcr oranl\u0131 <strong>Venezuela<\/strong> petrol\u00fcd\u00fcr. Bu petrol hacmindeki bir k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131, ilgili rafinerileri ikame kaynak aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6neltecektir. Bunun i\u00e7in de, %100 ayn\u0131 niteliklerde olmasa da, Kanada, Meksika ve ABD kaya petrol\u00fc tercih edilecektir. Zaten bu tercih sebebiyle ABD kaya petrol\u00fc oran\u0131n\u0131n etkin oldu\u011fu \u201cWest Texas Sour Crude\u201d fiyatlar\u0131nda son 10 g\u00fcnde neredeyse 12 $ \/ varillik bir art\u0131\u015f meydana gelmi\u015ftir. Yani ucuz olmas\u0131 gereken <strong>a\u011f\u0131r petrol<\/strong> ilgili rafinerilere pahal\u0131ya gelmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Tabii uzun vadede bu husus dahilinde farkl\u0131 \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nabilecektir.<\/li>\n<li>ABD borsas\u0131nda <strong>Venezuela<\/strong> ile i\u015f yapan \u015firketler de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015fayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>ABD\u2019nin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u00c7in ve Hindistan gibi \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in de daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlarla daha fazla hacim sat\u0131n alabilme imkan\u0131 do\u011facakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>WTI ve Brent baz\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ise, halen arz\u0131n y\u00fcksek, talebin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu, ABD\u2019nin dolar kuru politikalar\u0131 gibi hususlara dikkat edildi\u011finde, ciddi anlamda etkilenmeyece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenebilecektir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019da \u00fcretim kapasitesi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girecektir. (Hatta bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendi di\u011fer konvansiyonel kaynaklara sahip olan benzer nitelikteki \u00fclkelere k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ivme ile ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecektir.) \u00dcretim seviyesinin bir y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde 1 milyon varil \/ g\u00fcn\u00fcn alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesi muhtemeldir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>O halde ABD\u2019nin bu hamlesini nas\u0131l yorumlamak gerekir?<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u00d6ncelikle belirtilmelidir ki; ABD kendi i\u00e7 dengelerindeki ihtilaflar sebebiyle d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131ndaki stratejilerinde \u00e7eli\u015fkiler ya\u015famaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>De\u011fi\u015fen d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni, \u00c7in ile devam eden ticari rekabeti sebebiyle bir\u00e7ok netice alamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve alamayaca\u011f\u0131 hamleler sergilemektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Arka bah\u00e7esi konumunda olan G\u00fcney Amerika\u2019daki m\u00fcttefiklerini korumak, \u00f6zellikle ekonomik sebeplerle <strong>Venezuela<\/strong>\u2019dan ciddi anlamda gayri resmi g\u00f6\u00e7 alan Kolombiya\u2019ya y\u00f6nelik riskleri bertaraf etmek, neo-liberal d\u00fcnya g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc sosyalist bir olu\u015fumu zay\u0131flatmak ve <strong>Venezuela<\/strong> \u00fczerinden b\u00f6lgede artan \u00c7in \u2013 Rusya etkinli\u011fini k\u0131rmak maksatl\u0131 olarak s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Fakat daha \u00f6nceki darbe hamlesinde oldu\u011fu gibi, bu hamlesinde de ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015famayacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Tabii t\u00fcm bu gerek\u00e7elerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, <strong>enerji<\/strong> kaynaklar\u0131 \u00fczerinde kontrol sa\u011flamaya veya kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan ABD i\u00e7in <strong>Venezuela<\/strong> her \u015fekilde stratejik bir pozisyondad\u0131r. Fakat art\u0131k ABD\u2019nin d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde halklar\u0131n tercih etti\u011fi y\u00f6netimleri devirecek, bencil \u2013 s\u00f6m\u00fcrgeci yakla\u015f\u0131mlar\u0131 ile daha fazla kaos olu\u015fturarak istedi\u011fini alabilecek yetginli\u011fi kalmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Dengeler de\u011fi\u015fmektedir. Ve yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeninde, <strong>Venezuela<\/strong> krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin etkinli\u011fi \u00e7ok daha fazla dikkat \u00e7ekmeye devam edecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yazar: O\u011fuzhan Akyener<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Venezuela denildi\u011finde hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ilk olarak akla sahip oldu\u011fu petrol kaynaklar\u0131 gelmektedir. 303 milyar varillik kan\u0131tlanm\u0131\u015f rezervleri ile, hali haz\u0131rda Venezuela d\u00fcnyadaki en fazla petrol kayna\u011f\u0131na\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6805,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[268,106,117,250,108],"tags":[1481,103,1435,842],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-6832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-g-amerika","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-teknik-rezerv-gg-tesis-lojistik-teknoloji","category-tr","tag-agir-petrol","tag-enerji","tag-rezerv","tag-venezuela"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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