{"id":8123,"date":"2019-09-16T14:28:50","date_gmt":"2019-09-16T11:28:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=8123"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:28","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:28","slug":"suudi-arabistana-duzenlenen-siha-saldirisi-ve-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-beklentiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/suudi-arabistana-duzenlenen-siha-saldirisi-ve-petrol-fiyatlarindaki-beklentiler\/","title":{"rendered":"SUUD\u0130 ARAB\u0130STAN\u2019A D\u00dcZENLENEN S\u0130HA SALDIRISI ve PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDAK\u0130 BEKLENT\u0130LER"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n Khurasis <strong>Petrol<\/strong> \u00dcretim Sahas\u0131 ve Abqaiq Ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaTesislerine Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fczenlenen silahl\u0131 drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 hem siyasi olarak, hem de <strong>petrol<\/strong> fiyatlar\u0131na etkisi nezdinde geni\u015f anlamda yank\u0131 uyand\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Sald\u0131r\u0131 neticesinde <strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n k\u00fcresel arz\u0131 nerdeyse yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015ferek, 5 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn seviyelerine indi. K\u00fcresel arz\u0131 da %5 oran\u0131nda etkileyen bu durum, <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n iki g\u00fcnde %20 civar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesine sebep oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen bu sald\u0131r\u0131y\u0131 her ne kadar (<strong>Suudi Arabistan <\/strong>ile 2015 y\u0131l\u0131ndan beri sava\u015f halinde olan) Yemen\u2019deki Husiler \u00fcstlenmi\u015f olsa da, <strong>ABD<\/strong> ve <strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong>l\u0131 baz\u0131 yetkililer bu i\u015fin arkas\u0131nda \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini ifade etti.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Peki, ya\u015fanan bu geli\u015fmeler siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan nas\u0131l yorumlanmal\u0131d\u0131r?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle konuya siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, bu sald\u0131r\u0131 bir anda asl\u0131nda Yemen\u2019de orant\u0131s\u0131z g\u00fc\u00e7 kullanan <strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 kamuoyu nezdinde \u201cb\u00fct\u00fcn dikkatleri \u00fczerine \u00e7ekerek!\u201d ma\u011fdur s\u0131fat\u0131 kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. E\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak, sald\u0131r\u0131 ile birlikte Husileri destekleyen \u0130ran sorumlu tutulmu\u015f, bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra da, sald\u0131r\u0131n\u0131n \u015eiilerin etkin oldu\u011fu Merkezi Irak Y\u00f6netiminin kontrol etti\u011fi b\u00f6lgelerden de gelmi\u015f olabilece\u011fi vurgulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Yani \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n etkin oldu\u011fu bir\u00e7ok idare ve b\u00f6lge bu sald\u0131r\u0131dan sorumlu tutulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Di\u011fer bir ifade ile siyasi a\u00e7\u0131dan ilgili sald\u0131r\u0131dan \u0130ran, Irak ve Yemen gibi \u015eiilerin etkin oldu\u011fu \u00fclkeler zararl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131karken, bu blo\u011fun kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda yer alan (asl\u0131nda Irak\u2019\u0131 ger\u00e7ek anlamda bu blok dahilinde de\u011ferlendirmek \u00e7ok uygun olmasa da) <strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong> (ve siyasi olarak k\u0131smen <strong>ABD<\/strong> ve b\u00f6lgede \u0130ran\u2019\u0131 en b\u00fcy\u00fck tehdit olarak g\u00f6ren \u0130srail) karl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Suudi Arabistan <\/strong>iki g\u00fcnde %20 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6steren <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong> ile d\u00fcnyaya kendisinin ne kadar \u00f6nemli olabilece\u011fini (1973 krizinde de oldu\u011fu gibi) g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<p>Di\u011fer taraftan ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan; AB, <strong>ABD<\/strong>, \u00c7in, Hindistan gibi b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck <strong>petrol<\/strong> ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 y\u00fckselen <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong> sebebiyle genel denklem itibar\u0131 ile zarar ederken, b\u00fct\u00fcn petrol \u00fcreticileri de karlar\u0131n\u0131 katlam\u0131\u015flard\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik beklentiler neler olabilir?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; asl\u0131nda mevcut uzun vadeli trendler dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Brent i\u00e7in varil ba\u015f\u0131na 70-80 dolar aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir oran\u0131n makul oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecektir. Yani asl\u0131nda 50 &#8211;\u00a0 60 dolar seviyeleri uzun vadeli projeksiyonlar\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalmaktad\u0131r. Tabii bu oranlarda <strong>ABD<\/strong> merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n para politikalar\u0131n\u0131n, <strong>ABD<\/strong>\u2019deki \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n, k\u00fcresel ekonominin ve genel ba\u011flamda arz\u0131n talepten fazla olu\u015funun etkileri oldu\u011fu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecektir. D\u00fczenlenen sald\u0131r\u0131 sebebiyle yakla\u015f\u0131k 5,7 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn civar\u0131nda bir arz k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu olmu\u015ftur. Bu da <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n neredeyse %20\u2019ler civar\u0131nda artmas\u0131 ile neticelenmi\u015ftir. Bundan sonraki s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7in <strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n ilgili onar\u0131m faaliyetlerini ne kadar s\u00fcre i\u00e7inde tamamlayarak, <strong>petrol<\/strong> arz\u0131n\u0131 normal seviyelere getirebilece\u011fine dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 belirleyici olacakt\u0131r. Hasar\u0131n boyutuna ve Suudi <strong>Aramco<\/strong>\u2019nun bak\u0131m \u2013 onar\u0131m kabiliyeti ile bu konudaki isteklili\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bir takvim ortaya koyulacakt\u0131r. Yani bu durumda hasar\u0131n ne kadarl\u0131k bir s\u00fcrede giderilebilece\u011fi, Suudi <strong>Aramco<\/strong>\u2019nun bu t\u00fcr acil durumlarla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda hangi derecede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fu ve <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>ndaki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f trendini ne kadar devam ettirmek istedi\u011fi s\u00fcreci etkileyecektir. Di\u011fer bir ifade ile Suudi <strong>Aramco<\/strong>, uzun y\u0131llardan beri arzulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ve belki kendi ekonomik senaryolar\u0131nda bu hasar\u0131n giderilmesini \u00e7ok da aceleye getirmemek gibi bir strateji tutarl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p>Bu s\u00fcreci takvime koyarsak, beklentimiz (bu noktadan sonra yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak):<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1 haftal\u0131k bir normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreci <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>na varil ba\u015f\u0131na +2 $,<\/li>\n<li>1 ayl\u0131k bir normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreci <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>na varil ba\u015f\u0131na +5 $,<\/li>\n<li>1-2 ayl\u0131k bir normale d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcreci <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>na varil ba\u015f\u0131na +8 $ civar\u0131nda fazladan y\u00fck getirece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Bu takvim yak\u0131n zamanda Suudi <strong>Aramco<\/strong>\u2019nun yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar ile netle\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcm bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, (drone kullan\u0131larak ifa edilen) bu t\u00fcr sald\u0131r\u0131 giri\u015fimleri ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z dahi olsa, <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki g\u00fcvenlik riski ve g\u00fcvenlik maliyetleri kaleminin etkinli\u011fini artt\u0131racakt\u0131r. Yani bu geli\u015fme <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>n\u0131 artt\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan OPEC ve OPEC+ i\u00e7in orta vadede olumlu bir etmendir.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Suudi Arabistan taraf\u0131nda olu\u015fan a\u00e7\u0131k nas\u0131l kapat\u0131labilir?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00d6ncelikle \u015funu belirtmek gerekir ki, hali haz\u0131rda (patlama olay\u0131 ya\u015fanmadan \u00f6nce) k\u00fcresel piyasalarda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 -2 milyon varil \/ g\u00fcn civar\u0131nda bir arz fazlas\u0131 var. Zaten &#8220;OPEC+&#8221;\u0131n 1,2 milyon varil \/ g\u00fcnl\u00fck kesinti karar\u0131 bu sebeple fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltmek i\u00e7in yetersiz kal\u0131yor. Bu kesintinin yakla\u015f\u0131k 900 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n <strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong> d\u0131\u015f\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerce yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcrse; 5,7 milyonluk kay\u0131p 4,8 milyona d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p>2 milyon varil de arz-talep dengeleri sebebiyle d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclse, fark 2,8 milyona iniyor.<\/p>\n<p>Rusya, Kanada, <strong>ABD<\/strong>, Kazakistan, \u0130ran (kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131), Irak, Venezuela (kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131), Nijerya, BAE gibi \u00fclkelerin de toplamda en az\u0131ndan 1 &#8211; 1,5 milyon varillik bir arz fazlas\u0131 olu\u015fturabilecek teknik kapasiteleri var. Yani fark bu noktada k\u0131smen kapat\u0131labiliyor.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00e7\u0131k kal\u0131yor olsa dahi (ki; bu ge\u00e7ici bir s\u00fcre\u00e7) stoklar vb. artan fiyata nazaran olu\u015fan talep k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 ile s\u00fcre\u00e7 bir \u015fekilde y\u00f6netilebilecektir.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>D\u00fczenlenen bu sald\u0131r\u0131 teknik olarak ak\u0131llarda baz\u0131 sorular b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015f m\u0131d\u0131r?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Evet b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u015e\u00f6yle ki, yakla\u015f\u0131k 1000 km \u00f6teden SIHA\u2019lar kullan\u0131larak, farkl\u0131 lokasyonlarda yer alan ilgili tesislerdeki farkl\u0131 noktalar\u0131n neredeyse e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak nas\u0131l vuruldu\u011fu ciddi soru i\u015faretidir. B\u00f6yle bir operasyonunun b\u00fct\u00fcn hava savunma ve radar sistemlerini ekarte ederek yap\u0131labilmesi \u015f\u00fcphelidir. Kald\u0131 ki, neredeyse b\u00fct\u00fcn \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck <strong>petrol<\/strong> \u2013 gaz \u00fcretim ve rafinaj tesislerinde iyi k\u00f6t\u00fc bir\u00e7ok hava savunma sistemi standart olarak kuruluyorken, Husilerin daha \u00f6nce f\u00fcze vb. yollarla d\u00fczenlemi\u015f oldu\u011fu hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131 da s\u00f6z konusu iken, \u00e7oktan ciddi \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 beklenen bu zafiyete nas\u0131l d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc muallakt\u0131r. Kald\u0131 ki, bu sald\u0131r\u0131 <strong>petrol fiyatlar\u0131<\/strong>ndaki art\u0131\u015f dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, <strong>Suudi Arabistan<\/strong>\u2019\u0131n i\u015fine dahi yaram\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n<p>Tabii bu suallere cevap bulabilmek i\u00e7in ilgili sald\u0131r\u0131lara dair bir\u00e7ok veriye ihtiya\u00e7 duyulmaktad\u0131r. Bu veriye de ola\u011fan yollarla ula\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fclmemektedir.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yazar: O\u011fuzhan Akyener <\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n Khurasis Petrol \u00dcretim Sahas\u0131 ve Abqaiq Ayr\u0131\u015ft\u0131rmaTesislerine Cumartesi g\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fczenlenen silahl\u0131 drone sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 hem siyasi olarak, hem de petrol fiyatlar\u0131na etkisi nezdinde geni\u015f anlamda\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6474,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[101,106,131,117,108],"tags":[187,427,287,116,429,206],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-8123","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-belge","category-kose-yazilari","category-orta-dogu","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","tag-abd","tag-aramco","tag-iran","tag-petrol","tag-petrol-fiyatlari","tag-suudi-arabistan"],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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