{"id":8883,"date":"2020-03-16T21:20:47","date_gmt":"2020-03-16T18:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=8883"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:24","slug":"petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dususten-pompa-fiyatlari-nasil-etkileniyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dususten-pompa-fiyatlari-nasil-etkileniyor\/","title":{"rendered":"PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDAK\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015eTEN POMPA F\u0130YATLARI NASIL ETK\u0130LEN\u0130YOR?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in\u2019de ba\u015flayan, neredeyse hayat\u0131 durma noktas\u0131na getiren ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131lan <strong>Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong>, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc di\u011fer artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etmene ra\u011fmen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretmesine sebep oluyor. Ayr\u0131ca <strong>Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong>n\u00fcn k\u00fcresel yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, \u0130ran gibi petrol arz eden \u00fclkelerdeki \u00f6l\u00fcmler ile birlikte, di\u011fer petrol \u00fcreticilerinin de aktivitelerinin aksamas\u0131 ihtimali fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki psikolojik bask\u0131y\u0131 da artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong> di\u011fer artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etmenlere ra\u011fmen, neredeyse di\u011fer t\u00fcm etmenlerin etkilerini hi\u00e7e sayar \u015fekilde, fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fekillendiriyorken, Rusya ile Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n s\u00fcrecin ba\u015f\u0131ndan beri bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc fazladan kesinti yapabilme \u00fczerinde uzla\u015famamas\u0131 da yine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131y\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOPEC+\u201d \u0131n ortak bir karara varamamas\u0131, mart ba\u015f\u0131nda ifa edilen toplant\u0131da Rusya\u2019n\u0131n fazladan kesintiye gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesi (hatta \u00fcretimini artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131) \u00fczerine, Suudi Arabistan ve BAE\u2019nin de (2+1 milyon v\/g civar\u0131nda) arz kapasitelerini (Rusya\u2019ya bir tepki olarak) y\u00fckselteceklerine dair s\u00f6ylemleri neticesinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 30 $ seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Bu trend \u00f6zellikle ABD ve Kanada gibi \u00fclkelerdeki \u201ctightoil\u201d \u00fcreticilerini direkt olarak etkiledi.<br \/>\nBu duruma bir \u00f6nlem olarak ABD petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma ve yerli \u00fcreticiyi destek alan\u0131nda baz\u0131 hamleler i\u00e7eren bir paket \u00fczerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Piyasalar ise genel anlamda; <strong>korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc<\/strong> yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, ABD stoklar\u0131 ve OPEC+ kararlar\u0131na endekslenmi\u015f durumda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde dalgal\u0131 seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te Libya\u2019daki neredeyse 1,2 milyon varil\/g\u00fcnl\u00fck kesintinin etkisi dikkat dahi \u00e7ekemiyor.<\/p>\n<p>O halde, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00f6ylesi ciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimi seyrediyorken, bu durum \u00fclkemizde pompa fiyatlar\u0131na nas\u0131l yans\u0131yor?<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6nemli bir petrol ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olarak, d\u00fc\u015fen fiyatlar\u0131n cari a\u00e7\u0131k \u00fczerindeki olumlu etkisi zaten beklenilir bir durum. Y\u0131l sonunda TU\u0130K\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 cari dengelerdeki olumlu de\u011fi\u015fimi \u015fimdiden \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliyoruz. Fakat bireysel t\u00fcketiciler yani halk bu s\u00fcre\u00e7ten reel olarak nas\u0131l etkileniyor?<\/p>\n<p>Hepimizin bildi\u011fi \u00fczere, pompa fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ile vergilerin ciddi anlamda etkisi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<br \/>\nPompa fiyatlar\u0131 genel anlamda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki denkleme g\u00f6re olu\u015fuyor:<br \/>\n\u2022 Pompa Fiyat\u0131 = G\u00fcmr\u00fcks\u00fcz Rafineri Fiyat\u0131 + \u00d6TV + KDV + EPDK pay\u0131 + Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u015eirketi Marj\u0131 + Nakliye ve Servis \u00dccretleri + Bayi Marj\u0131<br \/>\n\u2022 Not: G\u00fcmr\u00fcks\u00fcz Rafineri Fiyat\u0131 = \u0130lgili b\u00f6lgedeki ortalama rafineri \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131 (hub fiyat uygulamas\u0131na g\u00f6re) T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de genellikle \u0130talya hub fiyatlar\u0131 dikkate al\u0131n\u0131yor. Bu fiyatlar da anl\u0131k olarak de\u011fi\u015fiklik g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<p>Genel anlamda ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki dalgalanma direkt olarak, ayn\u0131 oranlarda g\u00fcmr\u00fcks\u00fcz rafineri fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 etkiliyor. Yani denklemin di\u011fer de\u011fi\u015fkenleri direkt olarak petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndan etkilenmiyor.<br \/>\nO halde, hangi de\u011fi\u015fken grubunun denklemdeki ortalama a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nas\u0131l oluyor?<\/p>\n<p>Y\u0131ll\u0131k vergi planlar\u0131 ve b\u00fct\u00e7eler do\u011frultusunda, Gelir \u0130daresi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nca devletin birim vergisiz rafineri \u00fcr\u00fcnleri \u00fczerine yans\u0131taca\u011f\u0131 vergi oranlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiyor. Di\u011fer bir ifade ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fti\u011finde, ayn\u0131 oranda vergi miktarlar\u0131 da de\u011fi\u015fece\u011finden, ilgili hedeflenen y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7eye g\u00f6re vergi oranlar\u0131 artt\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor ya da azalt\u0131l\u0131yor. Matematiksel basit bir analiz yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, petrol fiyatlar\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, vergi oranlar\u0131 azal\u0131yor, azald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ise artt\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu sebeple de petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fimler, pompa fiyatlar\u0131na \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131 oranlarda yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Baz\u0131 varsay\u0131mlar \u00fczerinden rakamsal bir \u00f6rnekle a\u00e7\u0131klamak gerekirse;<br \/>\n\u2022 1 birim ham petroldeki de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131n\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde 1 birim benzinin g\u00fcmr\u00fcks\u00fcz rafineri fiyat\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131 ile ayn\u0131 oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131l\u0131r ise:<br \/>\n\u2022 G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz ko\u015fullar\u0131nda ortalama:<br \/>\n\u2022 1 Birim Benzinin Pompa Fiyat\u0131 = 100 TL iken,<br \/>\n\u2022 Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u015eirketi Marj\u0131 + Nakliye ve Servis \u00dccretleri + Bayi Marj\u0131 = 7 TL,<br \/>\n\u2022 G\u00fcmr\u00fcks\u00fcz Rafineri Fiyat\u0131 = 30 TL,<br \/>\n\u2022 Vergi Toplam\u0131 = 63 TL olacakt\u0131r (Ortalama %63).<br \/>\nBu 63 TL\u2019yi 1 birim benzinin pompa fiyat\u0131 \u00fczerinden, planlanan b\u00fct\u00e7eye g\u00f6re devletin almas\u0131 gereken sabit miktar oldu\u011fu varsay\u0131l\u0131rsa;<br \/>\n\u015eimdi ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc senaryoda;<br \/>\n\u2022 Da\u011f\u0131t\u0131m \u015eirketi Marj\u0131 + Nakliye ve Servis \u00dccretleri + Bayi Marj\u0131 = 7 TL (ayn\u0131 kabul edilebilir),<br \/>\n\u2022 G\u00fcmr\u00fcks\u00fcz Rafineri Fiyat\u0131 = 15 TL (yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azald\u0131),<br \/>\n\u2022 Vergi Toplam\u0131 = 63 TL (b\u00fct\u00e7e planlar\u0131 sebebiyle sabit olmal\u0131),<br \/>\n\u2022 1 Birim Benzinin Pompa Fiyat\u0131 = 85 TL olacakt\u0131r.<br \/>\nDolay\u0131s\u0131yla ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki %50\u2019lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f pompa fiyatlar\u0131nda %15 oran\u0131nda yans\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu durumda vergi miktar\u0131n\u0131 sabit tutabilmek i\u00e7in, vergi oranlar\u0131 %63 seviyelerinden, %74 seviyelerine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f oluyor. Bu durum y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fct\u00e7e planlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 oranlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilmesi i\u00e7in elzem hale geliyor.<\/p>\n<p>Sonu\u00e7 olarak, ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131 pompa rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 etkilese de de\u011fi\u015fimler ayn\u0131 oranda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmiyor. Farkl\u0131 oranlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ilgili yans\u0131malar\u0131n da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilmesi i\u00e7in yeni vergi rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n belirlenmesi sebebiyle k\u0131sa da olsa bir zaman\u0131n ge\u00e7mesi gerekiyor. Tabii baz\u0131 durumlarda, tersine d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde, devlet kendi aleyhine hamleler yaparak, \u00e7ok y\u00fckselen ham petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in vergi oranlar\u0131n\u0131 olmas\u0131 gerekenden fazla azaltarak y\u00fck\u00fc bireysel t\u00fcketicilerin \u00fczerinden de alabiliyor. Fakat ilgili s\u00fcre\u00e7lerde genel mant\u0131k bu \u015fekilde i\u015fliyor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Yazan: O\u011fuzhan Akyener<\/strong><br \/>\nD\u00fczenleyen: Esra G\u00f6zta\u015f<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00c7in\u2019de ba\u015flayan, neredeyse hayat\u0131 durma noktas\u0131na getiren ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131lan Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc di\u011fer artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etmene ra\u011fmen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8595,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106,117,108],"tags":[187,499,978,203,116,134],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-8883","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","category-petrol-ve-dogalgaz","category-tr","tag-abd","tag-cin","tag-korona-virusu","tag-opec","tag-petrol","tag-rusya"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDAK\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015eTEN POMPA F\u0130YATLARI NASIL ETK\u0130LEN\u0130YOR? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/petrol-fiyatlarindaki-dususten-pompa-fiyatlari-nasil-etkileniyor\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"tr_TR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDAK\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015eTEN POMPA F\u0130YATLARI NASIL ETK\u0130LEN\u0130YOR? - T\u00fcrkiye Enerji Stratejileri ve Politikalar\u0131 Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00c7in\u2019de 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