{"id":8957,"date":"2020-03-25T12:11:26","date_gmt":"2020-03-25T09:11:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=8957"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:24","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:24","slug":"haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari-analizi-mart-2020-4-hafta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari-analizi-mart-2020-4-hafta\/","title":{"rendered":"HAFTALIK PETROL F\u0130YATLARI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 (Mart 2020 \u2013 4. Hafta)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><strong>HAFTALIK PETROL F\u0130YATLARI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 (Mart 2020 \u2013 4. Hafta)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>O\u011fuzhan Akyener<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 genel anlamda etkileyen d\u00f6rt ana konu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bunlar:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Arz \u2013 Talep Dengeleri\n<ul>\n<li>(Yeni ke\u015fifler, stok durumlar\u0131, sondaj say\u0131lar\u0131, \u00fcretim ve\/veya kesinti kararlar\u0131, uzun vadeli kontratlar)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Ekonomik Trendler\n<ul>\n<li>(Dolar Paritesi, Alternatif Yat\u0131r\u0131m \u0130mk\u00e2nlar\u0131, Sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>K\u0131sa Vadeli Riskler\n<ul>\n<li>(Alg\u0131lar, Siyasi Gerginlikler, Ter\u00f6r, G\u00fcvenlik Sorunlar\u0131, Do\u011fal afetler, Ola\u011fan D\u0131\u015f\u0131 Etmenler)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li>Black Oil Market<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>\u00c7in\u2019de ba\u015flayan, neredeyse hayat\u0131 durma noktas\u0131na getiren ve ad\u0131m ad\u0131m t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyaya yay\u0131lan Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc di\u011fer artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etmene ra\u011fmen petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretmesine sebep oluyor. Ayr\u0131ca Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, \u0130ran gibi petrol arz eden \u00fclkelerdeki \u00f6l\u00fcmler ile birlikte, di\u011fer petrol \u00fcreticilerinin de aktivitelerinin aksamas\u0131 ihtimali fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki psikolojik bask\u0131y\u0131 da artt\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc di\u011fer artt\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 etmenlere ra\u011fmen, neredeyse di\u011fer t\u00fcm etmenlerin etkilerini hi\u00e7e sayar \u015fekilde, fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fekillendiriyorken, Rusya ile Suudi Arabistan aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan ve hala devam eden kesinti karar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar b\u00fct\u00fcn dengeleri alt \u00fcst ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>OPEC+\u2019\u0131n ortak karara varamamas\u0131, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n fazladan kesintiye gerek olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmesi, hatta Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda \u00fcretimini artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, buna kar\u015f\u0131 Suudi Arabistan ve BAE\u2019nin de (2+1 milyon v\/g civar\u0131nda) arz kapasitelerini y\u00fckselteceklerine dair s\u00f6ylemleri fiyatlar\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc trendini h\u0131zland\u0131rd\u0131. Bu trend \u00f6zellikle ABD ve Kanada gibi \u00fclkelerdeki tight oil \u00fcreticilerini direkt olarak etkiledi. Bu duruma bir \u00f6nlem olarak ABD petrol stoklar\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rma ve yerli \u00fcreticiyi destek alan\u0131nda baz\u0131 hamleler i\u00e7eren bir paket \u00fczerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p>Bu paket dahilinde fazladan stok beklentisi olsa da, mevcut stoklar\u0131n neredeyse maksimum kullan\u0131m seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu bilgisi bu beklentileri bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. \u00d6te yandan Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc sebebiyle a\u00e7\u0131lanan ekonomik \u00f6nlem paketleri ve FED kararlar\u0131, petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine sebep oldu.<\/p>\n<p>Bu minvalde petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u00a030 $\/varil band\u0131nda (biraz alt\u0131nda) seyretmeye devam ediyor. Piyasalar korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, FED karar\u0131 etkileri ve OPEC+ kararlar\u0131na endekslenmi\u015f durumda seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/as.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-8958 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/as.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"388\" height=\"310\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">Grafik 1: Brent Fiyatlar\u0131 (Kaynak: Oilprice.com)<\/p>\n<p>Bu hafta ya\u015fanan ba\u015fl\u0131ca geli\u015fmeler ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131na etkileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki tabloda k\u0131saca incelenmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n<table style=\"height: 1672px;\" width=\"870\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Olay<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\"><strong>Etki Y\u00f6n\u00fc<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"48\"><strong>Etki Oran\u0131<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"60\"><strong>Etmen #<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>\u00c7in\u2019de hayat\u0131 durma noktas\u0131na getiren Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc piyasalar\u0131 hem reel hem de alg\u0131lsal olarak b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde etkiledi. \u00c7in\u2019in i\u00e7 talebindeki de\u011fi\u015fimler fiyatlar\u0131 direkt olarak etkiliyor. \u00a0\u00c7in\u2019de talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn yava\u015f yava\u015f toparlanma e\u011filimi hissettirmesi dipten yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc d\u00f6nen bir bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2193\u2191<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">\u00c7OK!<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>ABD stoklar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli toparlanma fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiledi.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2193<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn ABD, Avrupa ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerdeki h\u0131zl\u0131 yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 t\u00fcketimi ciddi \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. <\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2193<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">\u00c7OK!<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn etkileri kapsam\u0131nda FED\u2019in s\u0131n\u0131rs\u0131z para pompalama s\u00f6ylemleri, fiyatlar\u0131 y\u00fckseltti.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2191<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Orta<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelere de s\u0131\u00e7ram\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden fiyatlar sebebiyle arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131, fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareket etme trendine sokuyor. <\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2191<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>OPEC+ dahilinde Suudi Arabistan merkezli y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan fazladan 1,5 milyon v\/g\u2019l\u00fck kesinti beklentisi olan kararlara Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ye\u015fil \u0131\u015f\u0131k yakmamas\u0131, Putin\u2019in son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u00fczerine de Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n tepkileri \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe sebep oldu. Putin\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131lamalar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131n, Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e 6 \u2013 8 $\/v civar\u0131nda yapaca\u011f\u0131 indirim ile birlikte,\u00a0 ihracat\u0131n\u0131 2 milyon v. kadar artt\u0131raca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, bu a\u00e7\u0131klamaya 1 milyon v. civar\u0131nda bir arz fazlas\u0131 olu\u015fturaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden BAE de eklenince dengeler alt\u00fcst oldu. <\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2193<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">\u00c7OK!<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Rusya Nisan ay\u0131nda petrol \u00fcretimini daha da artt\u0131rmay\u0131 planlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurdu.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2193<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Irak\u2019ta devam eden eylemler, korona vir\u00fcs\u00fc yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, belirsizlikler ve artan riskler petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca d\u00fc\u015fen petrol fiyatlar\u0131 sebebiyle baz\u0131 sahalarda \u00fcretim durdu.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2191<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>\u00d6zellikle \u0130ran, Venezuela ve Nijerya\u2019da devam eden kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar, fiyatlar\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkilemeye devam ediyor. Bununla birlikte \u0130ran ve Venezula\u2019n\u0131n ihracat hacmi ambargolar ve \u00c7in\u2019deki talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesi ile iyice azald\u0131.\u00a0 <\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2193<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Libya\u2019da yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,2 milyon varil azalama ile 100 000 v\/g seviyelerine d\u00fc\u015fen \u00fcretim, fiyatlar\u0131 yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc etkiliyor.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2191<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 nedeniyle ABD ve Kanada gibi \u00fclkelerde bir\u00e7ok k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00fcretici iflas\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u00dcretimdeki saha say\u0131s\u0131 ve yeni sondaj say\u0131s\u0131 azald\u0131. Bu arz\u0131 negatif etkiledi. Ayr\u0131ca \u0130ngiltere\u2019de de bir\u00e7ok saha \u00fcretimi devam ettirebilme riski alt\u0131nda.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2191<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1,3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td width=\"461\"><strong>Kanada\u2019da stok kapasitelerinin dolmas\u0131 ve talebin olmamas\u0131, \u00fcretim kesintisine sebep olmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"45\">\u2191<\/td>\n<td width=\"48\">Az<\/td>\n<td width=\"60\">1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00a0HAFTALIK PETROL F\u0130YATLARI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 (Mart 2020 \u2013 4. Hafta) O\u011fuzhan Akyener &nbsp; Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 genel anlamda etkileyen d\u00f6rt ana konu ba\u015fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r. Bunlar: Arz \u2013 Talep\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7598,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[204],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-8957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-periyodik-haftalik-petrol-fiyatlari"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>HAFTALIK PETROL F\u0130YATLARI ANAL\u0130Z\u0130 (Mart 2020 \u2013 4. 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