Rusya, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften sonra elindeki do\u011fal gazla petrol fiyat sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kazanaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019ya en b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011fal gaz tedarik\u00e7isi olan gaz devi Gazprom, son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r Avrupa k\u0131y\u0131lar\u0131na gelen Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri\u2019nden artan hacimli s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011fal gaz\u0131n (LNG) d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00a0endi\u015fesini izledi.
\nAncak, pandemik corona vir\u00fcs ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00a0 -ki bu t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyadaki gaz sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fc etkileyecektir-\u00a0 LNG ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 Gazprom\u2019dan daha fazla vuracakt\u0131r. Rus enerji analisti Alexander Sobko, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n devlet haber ajans\u0131 RIA Novosti\u2019de bir makalede bundan bahsetmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n
Sobko, \u201cPetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeyecek.\u201d diyor. Gazprom\u2019un uzun vadeli s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin y\u00fczde 32\u2019sine k\u0131yasla, uzun vadeli LNG s\u00f6zle\u015fmelerinin \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funun, \u00f6zellikle de daha eski olanlar\u0131n\u0131n petrol fiyatlar\u0131na endekslendi\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.\u00a0Petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, s\u00f6zle\u015fmeleri petrol fiyat\u0131na endeksli LNG ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n gelir ve karlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrecek. LNG s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131, talebin azalmas\u0131 ve ekonomik yava\u015flaman\u0131n (ve bir\u00e7ok olgun pazarda a\u00e7\u0131k durgunlu\u011fun) ortas\u0131nda spot LNG fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutacak, LNG \u00fcreticilerinin karlar\u0131n\u0131 t\u00fcketecek ve potansiyel olarak yeni LNG s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve ihracat\u0131 konusunda nihai yat\u0131r\u0131m kararlar\u0131n\u0131 ertelemeye zorlayacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 zamanda, Avrupa\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck do\u011fal gaz fiyatlar\u0131 da Gazprom\u2019un sat\u0131\u015f gelirlerine zarar veriyor ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda durum daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015febilir, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc Avrupa talebi b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomilerin kilitlenmesiyle end\u00fcstriyel faaliyetlerin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir u\u00e7urumdan d\u00fc\u015fecektir.<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019daki ABD-Rusya Gaz Sava\u015f\u0131
\nAB veri g\u00f6sterisinde, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n hem 2018\u2019de hem de 2019\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Norve\u00e7\u2019ten \u00f6nce en b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011fal gaz tedarik\u00e7isi oldu.
\nAncak Eurostat tahminlerine g\u00f6re, Rusya, Norve\u00e7, Cezayir, Katar ve Nijerya d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki tedarik\u00e7ilerin pay\u0131 2018\u2019deki y\u00fczde 4,8\u2019den 2019\u2019un ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8,8\u2019e y\u00fckseldi.
\nGazprom Export genel m\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Elena Burmistrova, ge\u00e7en ay Gazprom yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcnde, Avrupa ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gaz t\u00fcketiminde \u015firketin pay\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 35,6 oldu\u011funu payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ocak ay\u0131nda Viyana\u2019daki Avrupa Gaz Konferans\u0131\u2019nda Burmistrova , Gazprom\u2019un Avrupa\u2019ya ihracat hacminin 2018\u2019e k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc itiraf etti. LNG\u2019nin bir ana dezavantaj\u0131 oldu\u011funu ve bunun, t\u00fcketimin yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde talebi h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde kar\u015f\u0131layamamas\u0131 oldu\u011funu savundu. Rus devi Gazprom\u2019un boru hatt\u0131 gaz\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019ya tedarikte istikrar ve g\u00fcvenilirlik sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 savunuyor.
\nBununla birlikte, baz\u0131 Avrupal\u0131 \u200b\u200bm\u00fc\u015fteriler kendilerini genellikle politik bir fiyatla gelen Rus istikrar\u0131ndan ve g\u00fcvenilirli\u011finden kurtarmak istiyorlar.
\nABD, kendi boru hatt\u0131 gaz\u0131na olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltmak isteyenlere kar\u015f\u0131 \u201c kendi \u00f6zg\u00fcr gaz\u0131n\u0131\u201d \u015fiddetle te\u015fvik edici hamleler yapt\u0131.
\n\u201c\u00d6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck gaz\u0131\u201d Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin gaz ithalat\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmelerine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilir.<\/p>\n
ARDINDAN KARA KU\u011eU P\u0130YASAYI KARI\u015eTIRDI<\/p>\n
M\u00fckemmel bir k\u0131\u015f havas\u0131 f\u0131rt\u0131nas\u0131 ve ABD ve Avustralya\u2019dan gelen yeni LNG arz\u0131, k\u00fcresel bir LNG s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131na ve ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n sonunda LNG spot fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden oldu. Mart 2020\u2019de Avrupa gaz alamad\u0131, stoklar doluydu ve arz\u0131n da fazla olmas\u0131 \u00fczerine fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.
\nBu durum LNG sat\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131 ve onay i\u00e7in planlanan LNG projeleri i\u00e7in yeterince k\u00f6t\u00fc de\u011filse bile \u00c7in\u2019deki talebin d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte Avrupa\u2019da da taleplere darbe gelmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
Avrupa g\u00fc\u00e7 ve Yenilenebilir Enerji Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Peter Osbaldstone Per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u00c7in\u2019den gelen salg\u0131ndan en k\u00f6t\u00fc \u015fekilde etkilenen \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n, ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz hafta kilitlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131ktan sonra g\u00fc\u00e7 talebinin d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. WoodMac\u2019e g\u00f6re gazl\u0131 yak\u0131t \u00fcretimi ile piyasadaki toplam arz\u0131n y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan elektrik \u00fcretimi \u00fclke \u00e7ap\u0131nda karantinan\u0131n ilk haftas\u0131nda, bir \u00f6nceki haftaya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 8,8 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.
\nOsbaldstone,\u201cKilitlenmeler yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131k\u00e7a Avrupa genelinde talepte daha fazla azalma olmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ekonomik faaliyet yava\u015flad\u0131k\u00e7a end\u00fcstriyel ve ticari talep \u00f6zellikle zay\u0131f olacak .\u201ddedi.
\nKAZANANLAR VE KAYBEDENLER<\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019ya LNG ithali sert bir \u015fekilde vurulabilir, ancak Gazprom, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n ima etmek istedi\u011fi gibi petrol ve gaz piyasalar\u0131ndaki mevcut durumdan yal\u0131t\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olmayabilir.
\nRus i\u015f gazetesi olan Vedomosti, Rusya Federal G\u00fcmr\u00fck \u0130daresi\u2019nden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere at\u0131fta bulunarak \u0131s\u0131nan havalar ve \u00fclkelerin stoklar\u0131 nedeniyle Gazprom\u2019un Ocak 2020\u2019deki gaz ihracat\u0131ndan elde etti\u011fi gelir, 2019 oca\u011fa k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 41,1 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 2019 sonunda Rusya ve Ukrayna\u2019n\u0131n transit anla\u015fma yapamamas\u0131 durumunda topland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Ocak ve \u015fubat aylar\u0131nda Gazprom\u2019un ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 20-25 oran\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor.
\nAvrupa\u2019da gaz pazar pay\u0131 i\u00e7in bu sava\u015fta a\u00e7\u0131k bir kazanan olmayacak \u2013 Avrupa\u2019ya LNG ithalat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fecek, ancak Gazprom\u2019un ihracat ve gelirleri de, Rus devletinin gelirleri de d\u00fc\u015fecek.<\/p>\n
BU K\u00dcRESEL REKABET \u0130\u00c7ER\u0130S\u0130NDE T\u00dcRK\u0130YE BU DURUMDAN NASIL ETK\u0130LEN\u0130R?<\/p>\n
Gazprom\u2019un Avrupa ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin gaz t\u00fcketiminde \u015firketin pay\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 35,6 oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 \u00fczerine ak\u0131llara \u015fu soru geliyor; D\u00fc\u015fen LNG fiyatlar\u0131ndan ve ABD-Rusya rekabetinden T\u00fcrkiye nas\u0131l etkilenir?
\n\u00d6nce ABD\u2019nin Avrupa pazar\u0131nda olan etkinli\u011finin T\u00fcrkiye a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ele alal\u0131m. Bildi\u011finiz \u00fczere 8 Ocak 2020 tarihinden itibaren T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m boru hatt\u0131 vanalar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131. \u00dclkemizin g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve jeopolitik konumuna \u00f6nem katan bu projede Rus gaz\u0131 Karadeniz \u00fczerinden T\u00fcrkiye ve Avrupa\u2019ya ta\u015f\u0131n\u0131yor. Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n, ABD\u2019li LNG tedarik\u00e7ileri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetmesi bu ba\u011flamda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019dan ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 kayb\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019den kar\u015f\u0131lamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131na sebep olabilir. Bu da T\u00fcrk-Rus ili\u015fkilerini olumsuz y\u00f6nden etkileyebilir. Ama sorunun k\u00fcresel bazda olmas\u0131, genel durumu e\u015fitledi\u011fi i\u00e7in T\u00fcrkiye bu durumdan daha az etkilenebilir.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015fen LNG fiyatlar\u0131na gelecek olursak, do\u011fal gazda b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda ithalata ba\u011fl\u0131 olan \u00fclkemizin enerji ithalat maliyetini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi ve gaz tarifelerinde indirim yap\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok uygun bir zaman oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bug\u00fcn;\u00a0 d\u00fcnya genelinde en yayg\u0131n kullan\u0131lan Brent t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131, 23 dolar ile Kas\u0131m 2002\u2019den bu yanaki en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeye geriledi. Brent t\u00fcr\u00fc ham petrol\u00fcn varil fiyat\u0131 bug\u00fcn saat 11.25\u2019te 23,32 dolara kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.\u00a0Peki T\u00fcrkiye bu durumu nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendirmeli?
\n\u015eu an bu dev krizde yap\u0131lacak en do\u011fru hamle, ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde\u00a0y\u00fcksek miktarda petrol ve LNG al\u0131m\u0131 yapmak olacakt\u0131r. Y\u00fcksek miktarda stok yapsan\u0131z bile ka\u011f\u0131t \u00fczerinde al\u0131nacak olan petrol bu fiyattan i\u015flem g\u00f6rece\u011fi i\u00e7in ilerleyen d\u00f6nemlerde y\u00fckseldi\u011finde ciddi bir fiyat ve enerji tasarrufu yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olacakt\u0131r.
\nT\u00fcm par\u00e7alar\u0131 bir araya getirecek olursak, T\u00fcrkiye bu rekabet ve piyasa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden tasarruf yapabilir ve \u015fu an yapaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015fmalarla ileride y\u00fckselebilecek fiyatlardan daha az etkilenebilir.<\/p>\n
Yazar: \u00dcmm\u00fc \u0130rem Y\u0131ld\u0131z
\nD\u00fczenleyen: Yazel S\u00fcmeyye G\u00fcrer<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Rusya, petrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften sonra elindeki do\u011fal gazla petrol fiyat sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 kazanaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yor. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019ya en b\u00fcy\u00fck do\u011fal gaz tedarik\u00e7isi olan gaz devi Gazprom, son iki\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[1030,955,1010,126,300,203,116,134],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-9001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-abdrusya","tag-turkiyerusya","tag-brent","tag-gazprom","tag-lng","tag-opec","tag-petrol","tag-rusya"],"yoast_head":"\n