Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiye etkileri:
\nCovid-19 ba\u015fta \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere D\u00fcnya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgelerinde etkisini g\u00f6sterdi. \u00c7in\u2019in 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay %8 civar\u0131nda iken, bug\u00fcn s\u00f6z konusu oran %19\u2019a y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve \u00c7in de\u011fi\u015fen d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde hayati bir konuma oturmu\u015ftur. \u00d6yle ki 2002-2003 y\u0131llar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan SARS vir\u00fcs\u00fc d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla \u00c7in\u2019in d\u0131\u015f ticareti be\u015f kat, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131na g\u00f6nderdi\u011fi turist say\u0131s\u0131 alt\u0131 kat artarak yeri kolay kolay doldurulamayacak bir b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011fe ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.
\nABD\u2019den sonra d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisine sahip olan \u00c7in\u2019in Covid-19 nedeniyle olumsuz etkilenen ekonomisi hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz ticaret, yat\u0131r\u0131m ve \u00fcretim a\u011f\u0131 \u00fczerinden t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 etkileyen sonu\u00e7lar do\u011furmu\u015ftur. K\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye en fazla katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan \u00c7in\u2019in her zamanki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n, \u00f6zellikle 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir.
\nD\u00fcnya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisine, k\u0131sacas\u0131 k\u00fcresel dengeleri kolayca de\u011fi\u015ftirebilme g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip ABD, \u00f6nce \u00c7in\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen ve \u00e7ok say\u0131da \u00f6l\u00fcmle sonu\u00e7lanan hatta son zamanlarda mutasyona u\u011fray\u0131p tekrar g\u00f6r\u00fclen Covid-19\u2019dan ciddi \u015fekilde etkilenmektedir. \u00c7in\u2019den sonra \u00f6l\u00fcmlerin en fazla g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ikinci \u00fclke \u0130talya idi. Ancak ABD\u2019nin hem \u0130talya\u2019y\u0131 hem \u00c7in\u2019i hatta salg\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc di\u011fer t\u00fcm \u00fclkeleri geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131, en fazla etkilenen b\u00f6lge oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n Covid-19\u2019un \u00c7in\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 zaman vir\u00fcs\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcmsedi\u011fini t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ABD\u2019nin bu salg\u0131ndan \u00e7ok fazla etkilenmesiyle beraber a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda \u201cKendimi sava\u015f ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum.\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fcne yer vermi\u015fti.
\nVir\u00fcs\u00fcn yeniden revize olup tekrar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek ABD\u2019nin sa\u011fl\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7\u00f6kmesi hatta t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada sa\u011fl\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yetersiz kalmas\u0131 ve bu salg\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7emememiz sonucunda k\u00fcresel dengelerin \u00e7ok fazla etkilenmesi, Rusya ile OPEC\u2019in petrol \u00fcretiminde kesinti konusunda anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonras\u0131nda OPEC\u2019in Rusya\u2019ya bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc Suudi Arabistan \u00fczerinden misilleme yapmas\u0131yla aralar\u0131ndaki petrol sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n alevlenmesi ard\u0131 ard\u0131na ya\u015fand\u0131. Trump\u2019\u0131n OPEC\u2019e m\u00fcdahale edip dengeleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi beklenen bir sonu\u00e7 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
Petrol krizi:
\nT\u00fcm d\u00fcnyadaki \u00fcretim zincirlerinin bir \u015fekilde ba\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019in covid-19 nedeniyle yava\u015flayan sanayi \u00fcretimi, seyahat yasaklar\u0131 ile darbe alan havayolu ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 petrol fiyatlar\u0131na a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.
\nOPEC fiyatlar\u0131n daha da d\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemek i\u00e7in \u00fcretimi azaltma konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131 ancak Rusya bunu kabul etmemi\u015fti. Bunun \u00fczerine OPEC\u2019in, petrol konusunda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u00fcyesi olan Suudi Arabistan \u00fczerinden Rusya\u2019ya misilleme yapmas\u0131yla Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fcretimi bir milyon varil artt\u0131 ve bu art\u0131\u015f petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 1 hafta i\u00e7erisinde y\u00fczde 30\u2019un \u00fczerinde gerilemesine sebep oldu.
\nSuudi Arabistan\u2019la Rusya\u2019n\u0131n di\u011fer OPEC \u00fcyeleriyle birlikte, k\u00fcresel petrol \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 10 oran\u0131nda azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 konusunda anla\u015fmaya \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 belirtiliyor.
\nCovid-19\u2019un yay\u0131lmas\u0131ndan \u00f6nce petrol varil fiyat\u0131 60 ila 70 $ band\u0131nda seyrediyordu. Aral\u0131k 2019 da Kas\u0131m S\u00fcleymani\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ile k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc daha sonra yine normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc. Ocak aylar\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019de g\u00f6r\u00fclen covid-19 \u00c7in\u2019in petrol t\u00fcketimini ciddi oranda etkiledi. 13,5 milyon varil g\u00fcnl\u00fck t\u00fcketimi olan \u00c7in\u2019de g\u00fcnl\u00fck petrol t\u00fcketimi 8 milyon varil seviyelerine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu da petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na, 60 $ alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olmu\u015ftur. Bu arada \u00c7in korona sebebiyle resmi izin s\u00fcrecine girdi. Resmi izin s\u00fcreleri bittikten sonra normal hayata d\u00f6nmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. T\u00fcketim tekrar artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fckseli\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131 ancak salg\u0131n\u0131n tam olarak bitmedi\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tekrar resmi izin verildi\u011fi i\u00e7in, t\u00fcketim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7erek petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 da negatif y\u00f6nde etkiledi. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 i\u00e7inde OPEC \u00fclkelerinin petrol kesintisi konusunda anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonucu petrol fiyatlar\u0131 ciddi anlamda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7ti. Bu ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn sebeplerinden biri de Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n petrol \u00fcretimini artt\u0131rmas\u0131 ve ayn\u0131 zamanda 6\/7 $ d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyattan vermesinden kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r.
\nOPEC anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan sonra petrol varil fiyat\u0131 25 $\/varil civarlar\u0131na kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n duruma m\u00fcdahale etmesiyle 35\/40 $ seviyelerine y\u00fckseldi.
\nCovid-19 etkisiyle petrol t\u00fcketiminde \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir azalma olmaktad\u0131r; d\u00fc\u015fen talep miktar\u0131 nisan ay\u0131nda ortalama olarak 20 milyon v\/g olarak hesaplanmaktad\u0131r.
\nStoklar\u0131n doluluk oran\u0131 da git gide y\u00fckselmekte ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinde Amerika\u2019n\u0131n stok doluluk oran\u0131n\u0131n da etkisi var. ABD stoklar\u0131 da h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde doluyor. Stoklar\u0131 sonuna kadar doldurma stratejisinde ilerlemekteler.<\/p>\n
Petrol birim \u00fcretim maliyeti \u00fclkeden \u00fclkeye de\u011fi\u015fmekte olup varil petrol fiyatlar\u0131 60\/70 $ bantlar\u0131nda iken \u00fcretim maliyetleri ortalama olarak \u015fu \u015fekilde: Kanada 37 $, Suudi Arabistan 33 $, ABD 30 $, Brezilya 30 $, Kolombiya 30, \u00c7in 25 $ civarlar\u0131nda. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 30 $ alt\u0131na inmesi durumunda bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke zarar\u0131na sat\u0131\u015f yap\u0131p kepenk kapatmak zorunda kalacakt\u0131r.
\nPetrol fiyatlar\u0131ndaki azalma \u00fclkelerin 2020 b\u00fct\u00e7elerini etkiliyor.
\n2020 nisan ay\u0131nda k\u00fcresel talep miktar\u0131nda ortalama olarak 20 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn azalma oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00c7in\u2019de salg\u0131n\u0131n 2. dalgas\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 ve Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde vir\u00fcs\u00fcn yay\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anki h\u0131z\u0131yla devam etmesinden yola \u00e7\u0131k\u0131larak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5-6 ay boyunca talepte 40 ila 45 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn azalma olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
\n2020 Mart ay\u0131nda k\u00fcresel arz, g\u00fcnl\u00fck 101 milyon varilden 102 milyon varil civarlar\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. T\u00fcketimin azalmas\u0131yla nisan ay\u0131nda arz oran\u0131 95 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn civarlar\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu durum da baz\u0131 petrol \u00fcreticilerinin zaten petrol \u00fcretemedi\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor.
\nVir\u00fcs\u00fcn bu denli h\u0131zl\u0131 yay\u0131lmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda da arz oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmeye devam etmesi bekleniyor ve bunun neticesinde bir\u00e7ok \u015firket \u00fcretimi durdurmak zorunda kalacak.
\nArz talepleri ocak ay\u0131ndan nisan ay\u0131na kadar art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermektedir. Vir\u00fcs\u00fcn etkisinden dolay\u0131 nisan ay\u0131nda pik yap\u0131yor ve may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mektedir.
\nOcak ay\u0131nda 2 milyar varil bo\u015f stok kapasitesinin ilerleyen aylarda gittik\u00e7e azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Temmuz aylar\u0131na geldi\u011fimizde bo\u015f stok kapasitesinin y\u00f6netilemez hale geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. T\u00fcketim miktar\u0131nda ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f arz fazlas\u0131n\u0131n meydana gelmesine ve stoklar\u0131n dolmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bunu \u00f6nlemek ad\u0131na petrol \u00fcretiminin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funda kesinti olaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmektedir.
\nBrent petrol fiyatlar\u0131na gelecek olursak ocak ay\u0131nda 62\/65 $ civar\u0131nda, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda 53\/55 $, mart ay\u0131nda 32\/34 $, nisan ay\u0131nda da ortalama olarak 30 $ civar\u0131nda seyrediyordu. Covid-19\u2019dan kaynakl\u0131 olarak t\u00fcketimin azalmas\u0131 ve stoklar\u0131n dolmas\u0131 sonras\u0131nda \u00fcretimde kesintiye gidilmesiyle \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 5-6 ay yine bu fiyat aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyredece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.
\nOPEC++ toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131nda 10 milyon v\/g kesinti kararlar\u0131 al\u0131nd\u0131. Bu kesintinin yap\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda nisan ay\u0131nda ortalama 3 milyon v\/g d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olacak ve bunun 2.5 milyonunu Suudi Arabistan\u2019\u0131n yapaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6n g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Tabii korona vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bu h\u0131zda devam edece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek OPEC kararlar\u0131n\u0131n yetersiz kalaca\u011f\u0131 May\u0131s ve haziran aylar\u0131nda 15 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn, temmuz ve a\u011fustos aylar\u0131nda ise 25 milyon varil\/g\u00fcn \u015feklinde arz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olmas\u0131 gerekmektedir.<\/p>\n
Sonu\u00e7 olarak;
\nAsl\u0131nda Suudi Arabistan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna ve Suriye\u2019deki agresif politikalar\u0131n\u0131 engellemek amac\u0131yla 1980\u2019lerde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takti\u011fi tekrar hayata ge\u00e7irmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131 fakat b\u00fct\u00e7esindeki dev a\u00e7\u0131k nedeniyle petrol gelirlerinin azalmas\u0131na uzun s\u00fcre dayanamad\u0131 ve koordineli gitme karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Son OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda Rusya \u00fcretimi k\u0131sman\u0131n fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesini engellemeyece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayarak \u00e7ok stratejik bir hamle yapt\u0131. Fakat d\u00fcnyada her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ve kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z felaketler art arda s\u0131ralanmaktad\u0131r. Petrol sava\u015f\u0131 da belirsiz bir seviyede ve bu gerginli\u011fin bitirebilecek kesin bir etken yoktur. Her \u00fclke kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmekte ve art\u0131k bu \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n sonucunda \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck zarar\u0131 olacak olan biyolojik veya n\u00fckleer sava\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fclebilir.<\/p>\n
Yazan: Murat Toksoy – Umut Yusuf Kalem
\nD\u00fczenleyen: Esra G\u00f6zta\u015f<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Korona vir\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn k\u00fcresel ekonomiye etkileri: Covid-19 ba\u015fta \u00c7in olmak \u00fczere D\u00fcnya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7o\u011fu \u00f6nemli b\u00f6lgelerinde etkisini g\u00f6sterdi. \u00c7in\u2019in 2000\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiden ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 pay %8 civar\u0131nda iken, bug\u00fcn s\u00f6z konusu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8976,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[106],"tags":[998,1022,187,499,203,116,134,206],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-9060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-kose-yazilari","tag-covid-19","tag-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-cin","tag-opec","tag-petrol","tag-rusya","tag-suudi-arabistan"],"yoast_head":"\n