D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u015firketlerinin baz\u0131 tahmincileri ve \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticileri, petrol talebinin kriz \u00f6ncesi seviyelere geri d\u00f6nece\u011finden emin de\u011fil. K\u00fcresel petrol talebinin gelecek y\u0131l, pandemi \u00f6ncesindeki seviyelere gelmeyece\u011fi petrol end\u00fcstrisi ve analistler taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a anla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn ikinci dalgas\u0131n\u0131n olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da salg\u0131n\u0131n seyrinin art\u0131p artmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bilinmemesi petrol \u00fcreticileri taraf\u0131ndan endi\u015feye yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. OPEC\u2019in en \u00f6nemli endi\u015fesi ya\u015fan\u0131lan kriz s\u00fcresince en y\u00fcksek petrol talebine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131p ula\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve bu talep art\u0131\u015f zirvesinin ge\u00e7ilip ge\u00e7ilmedi\u011finin bilinmemesidir. OPEC\u2019in bile sessizce, beklenenden daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol talebi art\u0131\u015f\u0131na kendini haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6yleniyor.<\/p>\n
Petrol talebinin ge\u00e7en seneye g\u00f6re a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc seyretmesinin stratejik bir hamle oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenlerin say\u0131s\u0131 artarken, h\u00e2l\u00e2 talebin ekonomi ve fiyatlar\u0131n bir fonksiyonu oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnenler de var.
\nPetrol ekonomisi ve enerji politikas\u0131 uzman\u0131 Michael Lynch, Forbes gazetesinde, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131 geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda petrol talebinin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine yard\u0131mc\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131; petroldeki \u00f6nceki \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f d\u00f6ng\u00fclerinin \u00e7o\u011funda, fiyatlardaki b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin ard\u0131ndan petrol talebindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n h\u0131zland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131, tanklar\u0131n\u0131 doldurmak i\u00e7in daha az \u00f6deyen t\u00fcketiciler i\u00e7in daha fazla ara\u00e7 kullanmalar\u0131 i\u00e7in bir nimet olacak. T\u00fcketiciler ayr\u0131ca, toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmaktan \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde uzakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f, bunun yerine kendi ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kullanmay\u0131 tercih etmi\u015flerdir.
\nAncak bu salg\u0131n ak\u0131llara \u015fu soruyu getiriyor: Benzin talebinin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki sene i\u00e7erisinde petrol talebini yava\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck petrol fiyatlar\u0131 genel petrol talebini artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterli olacak m\u0131?<\/p>\n
Analistler, petrol talebinde V \u015feklinde bir toparlanma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olmayaca\u011f\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131 verdiler. Shell’in CEO’su Ben van Beurden, Temmuz sonundaki bir a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda \u015fu s\u00f6zleri kulland\u0131: \u201cSize kesin olarak belli bir \u015feyler s\u00f6yleyen herkesten bence b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ku\u015fku duymal\u0131s\u0131n\u0131z. Tabii ki bu salg\u0131n\u0131n nas\u0131l sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyoruz. Umar\u0131m iyi sonu\u00e7lan\u0131r. Zaten herhangi bir d\u00fczelme olursa talebin toparlanmas\u0131 uzun zaman alacakt\u0131r.\u201d Pandemideki mevcut belirsizlik, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir\u00e7ok yerinde hala kontrol alt\u0131nda olmaktan uzak ve uzun vadeli talebe ili\u015fkin tahminleri g\u00fcvenilmez k\u0131lmaktad\u0131r.
\nKovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, \u00f6zellikle Avrupa’daki bir\u00e7ok h\u00fck\u00fcmete, yenilenebilir enerji ve elektrikli ara\u00e7 kullan\u0131m\u0131na daha fazla yat\u0131r\u0131m yaparak krizden daha \u00e7evreci bir \u015fekilde kurtulmak i\u00e7in bir uyand\u0131rma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ye\u015fil teknolojilere y\u00f6nelik artan devlet deste\u011fi, daha y\u00fcksek petrol t\u00fcketimini \u00f6nceden beklenenden daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Wood Mackenzie, 2030\u2019larda daha b\u00fcy\u00fck yer kaplayacak olan \u201cDaha ye\u015fil b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d senaryosunun \u00f6ncesinde 2020\u2019lerdeki petrol talebinin d\u00fc\u015fmesine neden olabilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Gelecekte petrol talebi i\u00e7in kurulan \u00fc\u00e7 senaryo var. Birincisi \u201ctam bir iyile\u015fme senaryosu\u201d, ikincisi \u201cdaha derin bir gerileme ve daha sonra yava\u015f yava\u015f bir trend b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi\u201d ve son olarak da \u201cdaha ye\u015fil b\u00fcy\u00fcme\u201d senaryosu. Gelecek y\u0131llardaki azalan petrol rezervleri ve daha temiz bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesi ile petrol\u00fcn kurmu\u015f oldu\u011fu kalenin yava\u015f yava\u015f y\u0131k\u0131labilece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Shell ve BP dahil baz\u0131 petrol \u015firketleri, talebin pandemi \u00f6ncesi seviyelere toparlanaca\u011f\u0131ndan pek emin de\u011fil ve bu iki b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firket, koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn bir uyanma \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 enerji ge\u00e7i\u015finde i\u015f i\u00e7in kendilerini h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde konumland\u0131rma f\u0131rsat\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve kendilerine petrol yerine enerji \u015firketleri demeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) \u0130cra Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Fatih Birol, May\u0131s ay\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n petrol talebinin hen\u00fcz zirve yapmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve er ya da ge\u00e7 petrol t\u00fcketiminin kriz \u00f6ncesi seviyelere d\u00f6nerek bunun \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Uzun vadeli petrol talebi s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funda, belirsizlik mevcut tahminleri g\u00f6lgeliyor. Shell CEO\u2019su Van Beurden’\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda s\u00f6yledi\u011fi gibi: \u201cElbette, bulundu\u011fumuz yere d\u00f6nmemiz 2021’i alabilir. Bundan sonra ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmenin \u00e7ok daha zor oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum.\u201d.
\nKoronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn d\u00fcnya \u00fczerindeki seyri, ikinci dalga endi\u015fesi ve hala sonu\u00e7lanamayan a\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131; eski normalimize d\u00f6nmeyi birka\u00e7 sene daha erteleyecek gibi duruyor.<\/p>\n
Koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn d\u00fcnya \u00fczerindeki genel seyri, ikinci dalga endi\u015fesi, a\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 bir sonuca ula\u015famamas\u0131 petrol piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 son derece etkiliyor. Vir\u00fcs, enerji piyasalar\u0131nda hem arz hem de talep taraf\u0131n\u0131 derinden etkiledi. Normal hayat\u0131n yava\u015f yava\u015f geri d\u00f6nme \u00e7abas\u0131 talepleri biraz olsun artt\u0131r\u0131rsa da uzun vadedeki petrol talebinin toparlanmas\u0131 uzun s\u00fcrecek, ge\u00e7en seneki seviyelere ula\u015famas\u0131 birka\u00e7 seneyi bulacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
\u0130layda KENAR<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck petrol \u015firketlerinin baz\u0131 tahmincileri ve \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticileri, petrol talebinin kriz \u00f6ncesi seviyelere geri d\u00f6nece\u011finden emin de\u011fil. K\u00fcresel petrol talebinin gelecek y\u0131l, pandemi\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9675,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_thinkrank_schema_form_data":"","_thinkrank_selected_schema_type":"","_thinkrank_additional_schemas":"","_thinkrank_canonical_url":"","_thinkrank_og_title":"","_thinkrank_og_description":"","_thinkrank_og_image":"","_thinkrank_twitter_title":"","_thinkrank_twitter_description":"","_thinkrank_twitter_image":"","_thinkrank_imported_from":"","_thinkrank_focus_keywords":[],"_thinkrank_focus_keyword":"","_thinkrank_robots_meta_enabled":0,"_thinkrank_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_advanced_robots_meta":"","_thinkrank_primary_category":0,"footnotes":"","_ppma_block_editor_authors":""},"categories":[1095,268,106,177,879,135,250,108,109],"tags":[1394,714,226,1471,203,1469,116,1470,429],"ppma_author":[2016],"class_list":["post-9674","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi-finans-marketler-deger-zincirleri","category-g-amerika","category-kose-yazilari","category-abd","category-politika-diplomasi-ihtilaflar-guvenlik","category-rusya","category-teknik-rezerv-gg-tesis-lojistik-teknoloji","category-tr","category-turkiye","tag-covid","tag-dogalgaz","tag-iea","tag-ilayda-kenar","tag-opec","tag-petol","tag-petrol","tag-petrol-arzi","tag-petrol-fiyatlari"],"yoast_head":"\n