{"id":9948,"date":"2021-01-31T22:38:38","date_gmt":"2021-01-31T19:38:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/tr\/?p=9948"},"modified":"2026-08-07T22:15:20","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T19:15:20","slug":"belarus-ve-enerji-guvenligi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tespam.org\/wordpress\/belarus-ve-enerji-guvenligi\/","title":{"rendered":"BELARUS ve ENERJ\u0130 G\u00dcVENL\u0130\u011e\u0130"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00a0O\u011fuzhan Akyener \/ TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Ne\u015fat G\u00fcndogdu \/ TESPAM Genel Sekreteri<\/em><\/p>\n

Enerji hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz Belarus i\u00e7in arz g\u00fcvenli\u011finden \u00f6te, ekonomik, stratejik ve Rusya ile zorunlu ili\u015fkiler ba\u011flam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirilmesi gereken \u00f6nemli unsurlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda gelmektedir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc enerji t\u00fcketimi d\u00e2hilinde Rusya\u2019ya olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131ktan, rafineriler arac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile alt \u00fcr\u00fcn eldesinin ekonomi \u00fczerindeki etkilerine ve transit bir \u00fclke olman\u0131n getirdi\u011fi jeostratejik \u00f6neme kadar bir\u00e7ok husus bu kapsamda de\u011ferlendirilmelidir.<\/p>\n

Belarus\u2019un ciddiye al\u0131nacak miktarda hidrokarbon kaynaklar\u0131 bulunmamaktad\u0131r. Tahmini petrol rezervleri 13 milyon varil, gaz rezervleri ise (\u00e7o\u011funlukla petrol rezervlerinin i\u00e7inde bulunan \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcnm\u00fc\u015f gaz kaynaklar\u0131 olarak da nitelenen) 8 milyar m3 civar\u0131ndad\u0131r. Bu oranlara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Belarus\u2019un hidrokarbon fakiri bir \u00fclke oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131labilecektir. Buna ra\u011fmen petrol ve do\u011falgaz\u0131n \u00fclke ekonomisindeki etkisi b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fcr. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclke \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7en ve b\u00fcy\u00fck (petrol ve do\u011falgaz) hacimlerin naklini sa\u011flayan boru hatlar\u0131 ve \u00fclkeyi bir petrol \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumunda tutan rafineriler dengeleri bu minvalde de\u011fi\u015ftirmektedir. Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra, \u00fclkede hidrokarbon sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik servis hizmetleri ve yedek par\u00e7a sa\u011flayan, Sovyet d\u00f6neminden kalma fabrikalar da bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u00dclke ekonomisi ve i\u015fsizlik dengelerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, sosyal politikalar \u00fczerinde en \u00e7ok etkisi olan kalemler hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz rafinerilerdir. \u0130ki rafineri \u00fcr\u00fcn \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131lar\u0131 d\u00e2hilinde incelendi\u011finde, y\u0131llara g\u00f6re (\u00fcretim hacmi ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak) de\u011fi\u015fmekle birlikte, \u00fclke ihracat\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse %25\u2019ini temin etmektedir. \u0130\u015f\u00e7i bar\u0131nd\u0131rma kapasitesi d\u00e2hilinde de, petrol ve do\u011falgaz ile ilintili bu alanlar, \u00fclkedeki i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yine neredeyse %25\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 bar\u0131nd\u0131rmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Belarus, Dr\u00fczbe petrol hatt\u0131 ile Rusya\u2019dan g\u00fcnl\u00fck ortalama (pandemi \u00f6ncesinde) 300 000 varil civar\u0131nda ham petrol ithal etmektedir. Bu rakam pandemi s\u00fcrecinde ortalama %30\u2019lar civar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015ftir. \u0130thal edilen petrol ile \u00fcretilen petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri i\u00e7 piyasada kullan\u0131lmakta ve akabinde t\u00fcketim fazlas\u0131 ihra\u00e7 edilmektedir.<\/p>\n

\u00d6ncelikle belirtilmelidir ki, Belarus\u2019un enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve enerji ekonomisi kapsam\u0131nda de\u011ferlendirilebilecek b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck tesisler Sovyetler d\u00f6neminde in\u015fa edilmi\u015f ve Belarus\u2019a b\u0131rak\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u0130lgili boru hatlar\u0131ndan, rafinelerilere kadar her\u015feyin kurulum maliyeti Ruslar taraf\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131lanm\u0131\u015f ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma mekanizmalar\u0131 yine ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde Ruslar taraf\u0131ndan kurgulanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00dclke ekonomisi, teknolojisi, sanayisi, ihracat\u0131, jeostratejik \u00f6nemi ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc ba\u011flam\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck a\u011f\u0131l\u0131\u011fa sahip olan:<\/p>\n

\u2981 Toplamda yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u0131ll\u0131k 20 milyon tonluk ham petrol i\u015fleme kapasitesine sahip olan ve bu sayede \u00fclkenin ihracat\u0131na da b\u00fcy\u00fck katk\u0131 sa\u011flayan Naftan ve Mazur Rafinerileri,<\/p>\n

\u2981 Bu rafinerileri \u00e7ok uygun ko\u015fulllarda (piyasadan olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyatlarla tedarik edilen ham petrol ile) besleyen Dr\u00fczbe petrol boru hatt\u0131<\/p>\n

\u2981 \u00dclkenin b\u00fct\u00fcn do\u011falgaz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 tedarik eden Yamal-Avrupa boru hatt\u0131 serisi,<\/p>\n

\u2981 Yine Belarus\u2019un jeostratejik \u00f6nemini artt\u0131rarak, ayr\u0131ca \u00fclkenin y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama 1 milyar $\u2019\u0131n \u00fczerinde tarife geliri sa\u011flamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan, Dr\u00fczbe ve Yamal petrol ve do\u011falgaz hatlar\u0131,<\/p>\n

\u2981 Belarus\u2019u bir elektrik ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 konumuna getiren ve test \u00fcretimleri yeni tamamlanan N\u00fckleer santral Ruslar taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Belarus \u00fczerinde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaz bir hakimiyeti ve etkisi bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

A\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki haritada, Belarus\u2019un sahip oldu\u011fu ve \u00fclke \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7en \u00f6nemli petrol ve do\u011falgaz boru hatlar\u0131 ile \u00fclke i\u00e7in stratejik \u00f6neme sahip olan iki adet rafineri g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir.<\/p>\n

Haritadan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere,<\/p>\n

\u2981 Petrol boru hatlar\u0131 olarak, Belarus \u00fczerinde yer alan (Sibirya\u2019dan gelen) Dr\u00fczbe hatt\u0131 ve bu hatt\u0131n farkl\u0131 kollar\u0131 yer almaktad\u0131r. Unecha \u2013 Polack hatt\u0131 da Dr\u00fczbe hatt\u0131n\u0131n bir kolu olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclebilecektir. Rusya s\u0131n\u0131rlar i\u00e7erisinde ilgili ayr\u0131m ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmektedir. Unecha \u2013 Polack \u00fczerinden Naftan (Navapolack) Rafinerisi beslenmekte ve Letonya ve Litvanya\u2019ya petrol sevkiyat\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmektedir. As\u0131l hat olan Dr\u00fczbe Hatt\u0131 ile de Mazur Rafinerisi beslenmekte ve yine devam eden kollar \u00fczerinden Polonya, Ukrayna ve Almanya\u2019ya sevkiyat ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda ilgili hatlar \u00fczerinden ortalama 1 milyon varil \u00fczerinde g\u00fcnl\u00fck sevkiyat devam etmektedir. Bu hacmin yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak %80\u2019i ilgili Avrupa \u00fclkelerine sevk edilmektedir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Harita 1: Belarus Petrol ve Do\u011falgaz Boru Hatlar\u0131 (Kaynak: https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/File:Major_gas_and_oil_pipelines_in_Belarus.png)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2981 Do\u011falgaz sevkiyat\u0131 kapsam\u0131nda da temel olarak Yamal \u2013 Avrupa gaz boru hatt\u0131 ve onun uzant\u0131lar\u0131 ile Belarus i\u00e7 piyasas\u0131 beslenmekte ve buradan Polonya, Almanya, Hollanda, Bel\u00e7ika, Litvanya gibi \u00fclkelere gaz sevkiyat\u0131 yap\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Y\u0131ll\u0131k olarak ortalama 20 milyar m3 civar\u0131nda bir gaz t\u00fcketimi bizzat Belarus taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131l\u0131rken, 40 milyar m3 civar\u0131nda bir hacim de ilgili \u00fclkelere nakledilmektedir.<\/p>\n

\u0130lgili tesisler, t\u00fcketim ve ticaret hacimleri g\u00f6stermektedir ki, Rusya ve Belarus aras\u0131nda kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 kazan \u2013 kazan mant\u0131\u011f\u0131nda devam eden bir sistem bulunmaktad\u0131r. Her ne kadar Belarus bu tabloda ciddi anlamda Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olsa da, Rusya i\u00e7in de \u00f6zellikle petrol ticareti hacmi anlam\u0131nda, Belarus bir hayli \u00f6nemlidir. \u00d6te yandan zamanla Rusya ve Belarus aras\u0131nda ya\u015fanan petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131 ile ilgili anla\u015fmazl\u0131klar dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015ftir. Halen uzla\u015f\u0131lamayan hususlar bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 vermesinden bu yana, Rusya Belarus\u2019a uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok makul olan (Gaz sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda neredeyse di\u011fer Avrupa \u00fclkelerine satt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bedellerin yar\u0131 fiyat\u0131na, petrol de ise ciddi indirimlerle) fiyat politikalar\u0131nda kendi lehine (Belarus aleyhine) baz\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmeler yapmak istemektedir. Bu ba\u011flamda Belarus\u2019un diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermesi sebebiyle, Rusya taraf\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ici kesinti, hacim azalt\u0131m\u0131, petrol\u00fcn \u00f6zellikleri ile oynayarak rafinerileri zor durumda b\u0131rakma gibi kar\u015f\u0131 hamleler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Tabii bu hamlelere kar\u015f\u0131 olarak da, Belarus alternatif tedarik imkanlar\u0131 \u00fczerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f fakat hi\u00e7bir \u015fekilde Rusya\u2019n\u0131n teklif etti\u011fi rakamlardan daha karl\u0131 ve ekonomik bir opsiyon elde edemedi\u011finden, yine Rusya ile anla\u015fmak durumunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. \u00d6te yandan Rusya ve Belarus aras\u0131ndaki ihtilaflar hi\u00e7bir zaman, Ukrayna \u00f6rne\u011finde oldu\u011fu gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcms\u00fczl\u00fck ve Avrupa\u2019ya sevk edilen hacimlerin kesilmesi gibi a\u011f\u0131r neticeler do\u011furmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu ba\u011flamda Belarus\u2019un Rusya ile olan daha derin ili\u015fkileri de \u00f6nemli olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Yine de Rusya\u2019ya kar\u015f\u0131 elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in baz\u0131 hamleler yapmaya devam eden Belarus bu ba\u011flamda rafinerilerini yeniden revize ederek, farkl\u0131 niteliklerde petrol\u00fc de i\u015fleyebilecek (yani Rusya d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan da petrol ithalat\u0131n\u0131 ekonomik hale getirebilecek) bir altyap\u0131ya kavu\u015fmak i\u00e7in \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na devam etmektedir. Hatta bu ba\u011flamda Kazakistan, Azerbaycan, Venezuela gibi \u00fcreticiler ile g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Bu giri\u015fimler her ne kadar Belarus i\u00e7in bir alternatif tedarik imk\u00e2n\u0131 do\u011furacak gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclse de, ekonomik ve lojistik perspektiflerden bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ilgili tedarik s\u00fcre\u00e7leri hi\u00e7bir zaman Rusya\u2019n\u0131n arz\u0131 kadar makul olamayacakt\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ilgili tarifeler ve lojistik anlamda uzayan s\u00fcre\u00e7ler bu sistemi olduk\u00e7a pahal\u0131 hale getirmektedir. Do\u011falgaz ba\u011flam\u0131nda ise Rusya Belarus\u2019un ba\u015f\u0131ndaki devlet ku\u015fu konumundad\u0131r. Belarus\u2019un Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki ekonomik bir kambur olan Ermenistan\u2019dan dahi daha ucuza gaz tedariki sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bilinmektedir.<\/p>\n

Di\u011fer \u00f6nemli enerji kayna\u011f\u0131 olan elektrik g\u00fcvenli\u011fi perspektifinden Belarus\u2019a bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki haritadan da g\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi \u00fczere,<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Harita 2: Belarus Elektrik Altyap\u0131s\u0131 (Kaynak: https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Energy_in_Belarus#\/media\/File:Power_plants_in_Belarus.png)<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2981 Belarus\u2019un yenilenebilir enerjinin de pay\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck (RES ve HES olarak) oldu\u011fu fakat ilgili denklemde do\u011falgaz \u00e7evrim santrallerinin de etkin oldu\u011fu bir \u00fcretim a\u011f\u0131 bulunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2981 Belarus\u2019un do\u011falgaz \u00e7evrim santrallerinden RES projelerine kadar bir\u00e7ok \u00fcretim tesisinde yine Rusya merkezli kurumlar\u0131n operat\u00f6r ve\/veya yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6ze \u00e7arpmaktad\u0131r. Bu durum \u00fclkenin elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2981 Bunlara ek olarak, \u00fclkeyi bir elektrik ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olma konumuna getiren 2,4 Gw kapasiteli n\u00fckleer santral dahi yine Rus sermayesi ile Rosatom taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve test s\u00fcre\u00e7lerine ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2981 N\u00fckleer santral 2021 sonunda tam kapasite \u00fcretime ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, buradan \u00fcretilecek elektri\u011fin bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131n Ukrayna ve Litvanya\u2019ya sat\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\u2981 Bu ba\u011flamda ilgili santralin yak\u0131t tedariki de yine Rusya\u2019dan temin edilecektir.<\/p>\n

Dolay\u0131s\u0131 ile elektrik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n h\u00e2kimiyeti ve etkinli\u011fi a\u015fik\u00e2rd\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Rusya\u2019ya enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fi ve enerji ekonomisinin ulusal dengelerdeki b\u00fcy\u00fck pay\u0131 gere\u011fi ciddi anlamda ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olan Belarus, bu ba\u011flamda \u00f6zellikle AB ve NATO\u2019nun dokunu\u015flar\u0131 neticesinde baz\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131 mukavemet niteli\u011finde giri\u015fimler sergilemi\u015ftir ve sergilemeye devam etmektedir. Fakat bu giri\u015fimlerin hi\u00e7biri etkin neticeler do\u011furamam\u0131\u015f, Belarus\u2019un enerji ba\u011flam\u0131ndaki \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc sa\u011flamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi, ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan da zarar etmesine sebep olmu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda petrol ve gaz fiyatlar\u0131 ve vergi tarifeleri ile ilgili baz\u0131 restle\u015fmeler ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f ve genel anlamda zaten olduk\u00e7a makul ko\u015fullarda arz sa\u011flayan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bask\u0131n pozisyonu de\u011fi\u015fmemi\u015ftir.
\nDi\u011fer sosyok\u00fclt\u00fcrel dengeler bir kenara b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dahi, Rusya ile Belarus aras\u0131nda kurulmu\u015f olan enerji a\u011f\u0131, Belarus\u2019un kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 gere\u011fi, k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli alternatifleri dikkate alsa dahi, Rusya ile birlikte hareket etmesi gere\u011fini ortaya koymaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Bu ba\u011flamda son olarak \u015fu iki soruya cevap verilirse;<\/p>\n

\u2981 Rusya Belarus\u2019tan vazge\u00e7ebilir mi?<\/p>\n

Enerji ba\u011flam\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir krizi y\u00f6netebilecek imk\u00e2nlar\u0131 olabilecektir. Gaz sevkiyat\u0131 d\u00e2hilinde Nord Stream 2 ve T\u00fcrk Ak\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n orta vadede planlanan yeni hatlar\u0131 Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bu ba\u011flamda elini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirecektir. \u00d6te yandan Rusya\u2019n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00f6nelik yeni boru hatt\u0131 projeleri ve LNG hamleleri de bulunmaktad\u0131r. Do\u011falgaz konusunda elini her\u015fekilde g\u00fc\u00e7lendiren Rusya, petrol arz\u0131 noktas\u0131nda da deniz \u00fczerinden farkl\u0131 alternatifler geli\u015ftirebilecektir. \u00d6te yandan Belarus nezdinde bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, Belarus\u2019un Rusya ile olas\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck bir krizi uzun s\u00fcre y\u00f6netebilecek imk\u00e2n\u0131 ve altyap\u0131s\u0131 bulunmamaktad\u0131r.
\nBelarus Rusya i\u00e7in enerjiden ziyade stratejik olarak \u00f6nemlidir. Belarus ise enerji kartlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden dahi Rusya\u2019dan stratejik olarak ayr\u0131lamaz bir pozisyondad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0O\u011fuzhan Akyener \/ TESPAM Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0Ne\u015fat G\u00fcndogdu \/ TESPAM Genel Sekreteri Enerji hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz Belarus i\u00e7in arz g\u00fcvenli\u011finden \u00f6te, ekonomik, stratejik ve Rusya ile 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