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IDLIB, TURKEY – RUSSIA RELATIONS, ENERGY BALANCES

IDLIB, TURKEY – RUSSIA RELATIONS, ENERGY BALANCES

Oğuzhan Akyener

Dynamics in Syria is becoming more and more complicated. Collapse of the Astana process due to the Russia’s hypocritical acts resulted in hundreds of thousands of new immigrants to migrate to the borders of Turkey and thousands of new civilian deaths. The current situation of Syria can be accepted as a proof of Esad regime to become an official terrorist structure that has lost its legitimacy by slaughtering its own people.

Turkey due to

  • having a land border of 911 km,
  • and having a deep-rooted religious and cultural ties with Syria;

is the most affected country in this civil war.

In this concept, Turkey justifiably intervened the worsening balances in Syria. Within different operations, Turkey has being continuing its battle against the terrorist groups in the country, such as Daesh, PKK-YPG-PYD. In addition to these, in the concept of Astana agreements, Turkey has being working to control the increasing unrest in Idlib region, which becomes more and more difficult due to ongoing attacks of the Russia-Iran supported Regime Forces.

Idlib is an old city of Syria. Now, due to increasing numbers of refugees (who are trying to escape from the cruel attacks of the Esad forces) the total population of the city is estimated to be around 4 million.

At the current situation, Esad and Russian forces claim that (maybe we have to add this side also the Iran) there are some terrorist groups in the city and Turkey’s intervention efficiency is not acceptable by regarding their expectations. That’s why, without staying in the limits of the Astana process, they have being continuing their cruel attacks to the innocent civilians. During these attacks they initially also risked the security of the Turkish positions in the region and then after the politics got worsen, they consciously have started to attack the Turkish troops in the field.

This is unacceptable!

Everyone knows that, Esad forces cannot coordinate air attacks without getting the approval of Russian side!

Unfortunately, Russia again showed its double-minded characteristics in the ongoing balances in the region.

In reality, Turkey does not want to harm the innocent civilians in the region. That’s why applying more careful and carefully planned operations on the terrorist groups in Idlib.

Russia and its puppet (Esad) do not care about the lives of the civilians but Turkey does! This is the main difference between the due actors on the field! This policy mustn’t be accepted as a weakness or inefficiency in intervention against the terrorism. This is the main rule of justice and humanity! While nearly all the Syria has completely to be collapsed within the hands of these killers, no one can say that: “we can neglect the civilians and we are in a hurry.” Turkey cannot accept more refugees coming from Idlib! But they are coming! No one cares about their lives except Turkey! In this concept the other international actors and Turkey’s Western allies also have to put some acceptable support on Turkey’s acts! Otherwise, Turkey will not be able to hold additional refugees within its borders and the sincerity of those allies will again be injured!

While the security and the policy sights are continuing in such a fragile and alert situation, from the energy window, we can expect that:

  • The rupturing Turkish – Russian relations do not seem to affect the ongoing gas sales and the pipeline projects such as Turkish Stream,
  • Only in the Akkuyu Nuclear PP project, there may be some delays.

In addition to these, while turning back to Syria waters, we all know that, Russia is on the edge of a possible gas discovery in the Syria offshore. With a private Russian company, it has completed all the seismic works and interpreted some huge structures waiting for a secure environment to be drilled. This is another smaller point for Russia to be in a hurry to bomb the civilians in Idlib!

But of course, the main point seems to be the Turkey’s re-converging relations with US and Turkey’s NATO allies!

We will see how the dynamics will be amended in the common days. But we are sure that, the one who loses Turkey, will lose the region in the long-term!

In addition, the last (Russia operated) Esad attacks against the Turkish troops will be resulted in the long term (in around 20 years) a complete breakdown of Russian influence in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean region! (If Russia fails to make Turkish nation forgive itself in a reasonable manner!)

 

 

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