Tarihsel Bir Bakış Açısıyla Türk Dünyasının Enerji Entegrasyonunun Önemi
Eylül 9, 2021

CLIMATE CHANGE TODAY

ABSTRACT
Global climate change is backed up by 97% of research papers, and the authors accept this is a major problem for the planet. The rest of the papers however cannot bring sound proofs for their claims.

The Arctic Ocean’s ice is melting fast. The navigation path is still blocked with sea ice but this is expected to an ice-free area before 2050. The Arctic shores are shared by the USA, Canada, Iceland, Denmark, Norway, and Russia. These states are already competing in order to get a bigger slice in the northern natural reserves cake. The following decades will see a scramble for the Arctic.

People are already migrating in order to find better places and better climatic conditions for themselves. Sudan experienced a civil war because of climate change. Syria’s inner war may also be partially caused by worsening climatic conditions. Refugees of climate will be a reality in the coming decades.

As the climate warms in the boreal tundra, thousands and millions of years old soils will thaw. Ancient bacteria and viruses will once again find ways to infect plants, animals, and people. Also, the northern permafrost holds three times the carbon released since the industrial revolution.

INTRODUCTION

According to general acceptance, 97 out of 100 articles on global climate change admit that this problem exists and say that it is a big problem for our planet. The rest of the article writers, on the other hand, are seen by some people as the brave people of the present time, the indomitable, not afraid to say what they know as the truth. However, the climate science journal Theoretical and Applied Climatology finds these discriminators wrong; when the experiments in the articles are repeated, it is stated that the authors publish erroneous and biased results.

Texas Tech University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe and her team reviewed 38 articles published in the last 10 years that do not acknowledge human-induced climate change. “All articles had an error. Either their methodology, their presuppositions, or their analysis were flawed. When these errors were corrected and the calculations were made again, it was seen that the results were in accordance with the general view.“ They convey their comments in the form. Rasmus Benestad (Dana Nuccitelli, Stephan Lewandowsky, Hans Olav Hygen, Rob van Dorland and John Cook) in the same study group prepared a new computer program and retested these results. Benestad states that these results are not reproducible. The errors conveyed are as follows: purposefully selecting the parts of the data that suit them, ignoring other data, interpreting the curves in the graphs in a certain way. In some cases, it is seen that physics is completely ignored, which is only the result of the interpretation of experimental results from a certain mechanism with certain parameters. It is not yet known how so many erroneous articles published in peer-reviewed journals escaped filters.

Another researcher, Dana Nuccitelli, writes that 3% of the people cannot develop a coherent alternative theory. “Some hold the Sun responsible, while others say that deviations in the planet’s orbit and ocean currents are responsible.” Nuccitelli says that this minority cannot even develop a common idea within itself. Considering his article published in The Guardian newspaper in 2015 and his repeated statements in September 2017, it can be seen that this discussion has been going on for years.

It is given as an example by the group that does not accept global warming that Galileo has emerged with the solar centered solar system theory but was not accepted in his time. However, other researchers disagree with this example, “If they were like Galileo, they could develop a coherent theory and start to change the general opinion with the observations and experiments that support it.”

In a statement on her Facebook page, Katharine Hayhoe explains that she is constantly being asked whether this minority is being oppressed. She explains that these people took this attitude because they could not find consistent evidence and could not refute scientific studies with a history of 150 years.

1. THE ARCTIC ICE

With the melting of the Arctic Ocean, the countries that shore the ocean entered a feverish race to have a say in the north. Roads, ports, bases, mines, etc. are being built. However, there is no available capital required to accomplish these jobs. On the other hand, countries with the money like China are also eager to sit down at the table and get a share.

Working in the north is not easy. Infrastructure is not sufficient, the area is far from everywhere. In the studies carried out in the last 10 years, the existence of about 900 projects has been identified. The total cost of these projects are expected to increase to 1 trillion dollars. 250 of these projects are planned by Russia alone and it focuses on this issue more than its neighbours. These projects are thought to bring great gains, not for today, but for the decades to come.

While $200 billion is required for oil and gas investments (this sector requires the largest investment) which makes more than the sum of the three items that came after it – mining, renewable energy, railways.

It is estimated that the Arctic Ocean contains 20% of the world’s undiscovered oil and natural gas reserves. Most of these reserves are also under the sea. However, when oil is at $60 a barrel, it is not profitable to extract it.

While the northern regions of Russia bring 1/5 of their GDP, Russia constitutes 2/3 of the economy around the Arctic Ocean. President Putin established and opened a $27 billion LNG facility in the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia in December 2017 to further consolidate Russia’s aspirations in the north.

The ex-president Trump’s administration had also started working on drilling activities. He gave the Italian company Eni exploration drilling permission. The USA is preparing to allow drilling operations in the Alaska Wildlife Sanctuary, the Chukchi Sea and the Beaufort Sea.

Norway, on the other hand, is considering keeping its $1 trillion wealth fund away from hydrocarbons, despite the wealth it has gained from oil. In contrast, Norway’s oil company continues to drill and search.

The Arctic Ocean is not just harbouring hydrocarbons. Gold, silver, rare earth elements, graphite, nickel, copper, titanium, lead etc… It is estimated that many valuable resources exist in the north. Wave energy, hydroelectric, geothermal energy can also be harnessed.

The ice on the top of the world is slowly melting. Satellite imagery also supports this. It may take up to 25 years for a completely ice-free Arctic Ocean to appear. Russia is the country that focuses on the north the most. Icebreakers are still necessary for ships to navigate. The fact that the East-West direction route taking the Arctic Ocean instead of the Suez Canal reduces the distance by 40%, which helps us understand why Russia has 16 ports in this region. In addition, Russia put the Russian flag on the Arctic Ocean floor in 2007.

As mentioned before, China also wants to get a share of this cake. This country, which prefers to take careful steps yet, wants to make the route the shortest by passing the northern route directly over the North Pole, not along the shores of Russia or Canada. It is known that the country has developed strategies for the North and South Poles for the year 2049, the 100th anniversary of the Chinese revolution. China also has free trade agreements with countries in the region.
Historical records show that if a building block is removed from the system in the balance existing in nature, the building will collapse. A meteorite of 10 km in diameter, which hit the earth 65 million years ago, first hit the plant and plankton life with the dust it raised to the atmosphere and the ozone layer it destroyed. While the herbivores that could not eat the plants died one by one, the carnivores that hunted the herbivores fell into a food shortage. So a chain exhaustion occurred.

In the essay “Her 100 Makaleden 3’ü Küresel İklim Değişikliğinin Olmadığını İddia Ediyor ve Hata Ediyor” dated September 23, 2017 (https://www.tespam.org/her-100-makaleden-3u-kuresel-iklim-degisikliginin-olmadigini-iddia-ediyor-ve-hata-ediyor/), it is explained that while melting glaciers expose bare rocks and accelerate the warming of the planet, the minerals carried by the same glaciers to the seas and lakes increase the plankton population and increase the CO2 absorption. Cutting down forests also reduces photosynthesis, and the use of these trees as fuel causes additional greenhouse gases to enter the atmosphere. In summary, no action has just one good or one bad result. We have a big, nested, complex equation.

While the “Gaia Hypothesis” suggests that the system in the world will somehow balance itself, the fossil records convey that the ecosystem could collapse altogether. While the number of scientists who support the view that the world is approaching a mass extinction for the sixth time, it is stated that the excessive increase of the human population and the limitless approach to natural resource consumption are the causes of the approaching disaster.

As a result of the wave of actions initiated by the 16-year-old Swede Greta Thunberg (nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize), interest in global climate change was once again featured in the headlines. However, US senator Dianne Feinstein claimed that these young people took an approach that “you either think like me or get out of here.” Christian Lindner, one of the leaders of the liberal democrats in Germany, also stated that young people do not understand what is feasible and what is not. Britain’s Prime Minister, Theresa May, said that students were wasting their lecture hours in vain with these events. All these opposing views claim that activists act with their emotions and cause destructive effects.

According to the research conducted by Portland State University in the USA, one of the largest CO2 producers while the youth’s actions continue, it was determined that the country could end the coal-fired energy business by 2024 and reach the values ​​in the Paris Climate Change Agreement.

With the decrease in the cost of renewable energy and the cheaper natural gas, it is possible that there will be a decrease in CO2 emissions in the world. The University of East Anglia reported that there was a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions due to these reasons in 18 developed countries between 2005 and 2015.

According to the news from the USA, the production of approximately ¾ of the coal in the country is more expensive than providing electricity to homes with wind and solar energy. The continuation of the trend in this direction shows that electricity generated from coal in 2025 will be equivalent to wind and solar energy.

Current news and developments still cannot give us bad news or good news. However, it is clear that there are still promising developments in the fight against global climate change.

The face of our world continues to change while we live. Flood disasters and rising sea waters will change coasts and low altitude locations. Many villages, towns and cities on the coast will no longer be habitable. Some cities may be the scene of rescue efforts because they are important, for example, billions of dollars in investment are needed to prevent future flooding of New Orleans and Miami in the USA. In addition to these, the northern part of the planet will also take its share from this change.

By 2040, the Arctic Ocean is expected to remain completely ice-free. In previous assumptions this was expected to happen in 2070.

Melting glaciers will open up the virgin shores of the Arctic Ocean for transportation. Ferry trips between the Far East and Europe will prefer this northern route instead of the Suez Canal, and save fuel and time. Russia, Canada and especially the USA will have a great struggle with each other in this new area. The severe weather and unpredictable conditions of the north are not yet making this route feasible, but it may open up in the next 25 years.

There are those who oppose the global climate change claims. However, this section constitutes only 3% of the scientific articles written. As a result of Texas Tech University climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe and her team reviewing the articles published in the last decade, it is reported that there are methodological errors in the articles and their analysis or pre-acceptance is wrong. It was found that the results were also not reproducible. Repeatability, which should have been an indispensable feature in scientific articles, was somehow ignored and published.

In short, those living in the first half of the 2000s will see a new and different world. With the change of the earth and the change in the climate, humanity will have to go through innovations in its old life. We need to prepare for what the next 25 years will bring and make our strategic plans.

2. PEOPLE MOVE

As we know, we are in a process of change affecting the entire planet: global climate change.

Photos of desperate polar bears are the first to come to mind. However, not only animals living in the pole, but also all plants, all animals and humanity are also affected by this change.

The population that may be affected in the future is tried to be determined with various simulations.

The USA’s separation from the Paris Climate Agreement and the results of the Kyoto Protocol continue to be discussed.

The social balance of humanity may be the part that will take the greatest damage. Changing rainfall patterns, severe storms and floods, migrating and proliferating pest problems, reductions in meat and plant production are some of our future problems.

After the Zika virus outbreak in 2016, people chose to go from lowlands to mountainous areas to escape the mosquitoes carrying the virus. For similar situations, we can expect a movement of migration towards high altitude places.

Food problems and famines can arise due to chaotic migrations and riots caused by climate change. Access to food may be difficult. These problems already started in countries in the Pacific Ocean due to changes in precipitation and currents.

In addition to these, political problems can be a nuisance for countries. As border problems increase, human migration will result in further spread of epidemics.

Ban Ki-Moon, the former UN secretary general, said that global climate change poses as much of a threat as a war.

Moon also stated that the island countries and rural African settlements would suffer the most.

He also explained how the environmental problem in Darfur has turned into a political and humanitarian problem for the whole region and that global climate change is such a threat for the whole world.

The Maldives government evacuated some islands and moved their citizens to the relatively higher islands.

Papua New Guinea transported people from the island of Carteret to a larger island.

Citizens of the Pacific island states look forward to working in Australia and New Zealand.

Developed countries will not be able to escape from the problems either. We remember that Louisiana was flooded. Even in a developed country like the USA, people lost their homes due to the floods in the state of Louisiana and some of them left their place of residence. These homeless people started looking for new places to settle. With the changes in climate, the number of these domestic migrants will increase.

Again, every year we watch the wildfires in the state of California on the news. In the first half of the 20th century, huge dust storms were experienced in the USA due to wrong agricultural policies.

During the Agricultural Revolution, people migrated to arable lands and waged wars from time to time to protect their land. Wars with arrows, bows, spears… With today’s weapons, the possibility of these happening again really terrifies people.

The Migration Period brought the end of the mighty Roman Empire.

If the destination country closes the borders, it has been observed that there are border problems and conflicts during this time.

Under the leadership of the UN, we need all countries to work together and recognize that this problem is not a problem for some but for the whole planet.

NEW VIRUSES AND BACTERIA

We have witnessed the occurrence of many diseases in the last 30 years. Although HIV is the deadliest of these pathogens, many microorganisms cause diseases.

  • Extreme population increase
  • Transport of animals, plants and other commodities (by ships, by plane)
  • Refugee and immigrant flows – mass displacement of people

While the pollutants in the air caused the global climate change, they also caused holes in the ozone layer. This hole has also caused skin diseases.

The habitat of insects is related to humidity and temperature. With increasing temperature and humidity, insect communities will find new habitats. Thus, the pathogens these insects carry will spread and the local human populations will meet new microbes.

For example, in 2005-2006, blue tongue disease was seen for the first time in continental Europe and England.

Rodents can travel by ships and swim short distances. Hot and humid new environments are very suitable for the development of these creatures.

Conditions caused by viruses, at least the corona virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic, and proof that a virus can affect the climate:

  • Effects on the economy
  • Reduction of the consumption of natural resources
  • Reduction of air pollution
  • Reduction or changed ways of transport

The connection of the climate and the seasons with diseases has been known since the ancient times. The wealthy aristocratic class in the Roman Empire spent the summer months in their homes on the hills to survive malaria epidemics in the city.

The 2002 SARS epidemic resulted in heavy human life losses due to high air pollution in China.

The following situations will also create suitable environments for the transport and change of microorganisms. Insects will also carry them.

  • Sudden temperature changes
  • Diseases spread
  • Frequent extreme weather conditions: floods, storms, droughts
  • The replacement of those viruses due to weather conditions and people and animals escaping from the environment

According to the research of Yale University, the ticks that cause Lyme disease are now moving towards the interiors of Canada.

Cold climates are now becoming warmer.

As the forest areas and living spaces disappear, they will get closer to where people live. Contact with these creatures that get closer to humans will increase and the possibility of disease transmission will increase with it.

When forests and pastures disappear, smaller animals adapt better than large animals. Thus, small rodents, insects and other pathogens will expand their habitats to their advantage.

Small creatures will also be able to find food in cities by exploiting the garbage. Thus, the contact will increase even more.

There are studies claiming that the plague epidemics in the Middle Ages were caused by rodents that experienced a population boom due to increased rainfall in the Mongolian steppes.

In this COVID-19 pandemic, we all see what eating wild animals can cost us. It is estimated that there are still 3,200 species of corona viruses in bats. With the continuation of close contact, we will continue to feel the danger closer to us.

So what will happen if disasters such as floods, earthquakes, tsunamis etc. occur during the pandemic? How do we protect people? Who will be in the shelters?

Zika and dengue fever perceived in Africa can now be seen seasonally in Europe.
The real unknown danger that awaits us is the permafrost of Siberia-Canada-Alaska, the frozen soils will thaw and the remains that have not seen daylight for ages will come to the surface.

The permafrost in the north is a formidable carbon treasure – three times the carbon released since industrialization began is buried here.

Even if we stay below the 2oC increase target set in the Paris Agreement, a quarter of this permafrost will be thawed by 2100.

Microorganisms that have been under the soil for thousands of years will travel great distances with the melting water. Our habitats of today will meet thousands of years old microbes again.

There are records showing that insects emerging from the melting soil continue their lives.

30,000-year-old Siberian viruses have been revived in the laboratory.

The microbes that caused diseases of the Neanderthals, mammoths, and hairy rhinos are still present in these lands.

In 2016, it was reported that a child died in Siberia due to an illness that was not seen for 75 years.

Anthrax from a frozen reindeer was transmitted to live animals and there was an epidemic.

In the 1970s, new cases of smallpox were detected for the first time in 50 years.This shows that viruses can be reactivated.

Especially with the release of pathogens that have been underground for 2 million years, many pandemics may arise.

We know the cure and vaccine for smallpox, but this may cause us to experience the situation of the indigenous people who got sick from the Europeans who went to America and suffered from various diseases.

If global climate change continues in this way, it is predicted that by 2050, 5 billion people may be living in places where malaria is prevalent.

REFERENCES

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-economic-arctic/#2075
http://www.worldpolicy.org/blog/2015/03/25/russia’s-ambitions-arctic
https://theconversation.com/catastrophic-failure-of-earths-global-systems-led-to-the-extinction-of-the-dinosaurs-we-may-yet-go-the-same-way-114348
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/10/earths-sixth-mass-extinction-event-already-underway-scientists-warn
https://theconversation.com/why-fear-and-anger-are-rational-responses-to-climate-change-114056
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190307103201.htm
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https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/25/coal-more-expensive-wind-solar-us-energy-study
Katherine Ellen Foley, Those 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change? A review found them all flawed, September 05, 2017, https://qz.com/1069298/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-are-all-flawed/
Katherine Ellen Foley, The 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change? They’re all flawed, 11 Sep 2017, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/09/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-theyre-all-flawed-fae19159-228d-4ff3-b658-08113fce4723
Katharine Hayhoe, Is there such a strong consensus in the scientific community on climate change simply because anyone proposing alternate explanations is black-balled and suppressed?, September 4,2017, https://www.facebook.com/katharine.hayhoe/posts/1915202578704620
Dana Nuccitelli, Here’s what happens when you try to replicate climate contrarian papers, Tuesday 25 August 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/aug/25/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-to-replicate-climate-contrarian-papers
Leanna Garfield, These experts say we have three years to save the planet from irreversible destruction, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/these-experts-say-we-have-three-years-to-save-the-planet-from-irreversible-destruction, 07 Jul 2017.
Pam Wright, We Have 3 Years to Save the Planet From Climate Disaster, Experts Warn, https://weather.com/science/environment/news/climate-change-experts-3-years-global-warming, June 29, 2017.
Keith Breene, The Arctic is now expected to be ice-free by 2040, 17 May 2017, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/05/the-arctic-could-be-ice-free-by-2040/
The Economist, The thawing Arctic threatens an environmental catastrophe, https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21721364-commercial-opportunities-are-vastly-outweighed-damage-climate-thawing-arctic?fsrc=rss
Katherine Ellen Foley, Those 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change? A review found them all flawed, September 05, 2017, https://qz.com/1069298/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-are-all-flawed/
Katherine Ellen Foley, The 3% of scientific papers that deny climate change? They’re all flawed, 11 Sep 2017, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/09/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-theyre-all-flawed-fae19159-228d-4ff3-b658-08113fce4723
Dana Nuccitelli, Here’s what happens when you try to replicate climate contrarian papers, Tuesday 25 August 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/aug/25/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-to-replicate-climate-contrarian-papers
https://www.bbva.com/en/viruses-and-climate-change-how-the-two-threats-converge/
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-climate-expose-epidemics.html
https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(14)60436-5/pdf
https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-infectious-diseases

 

Fatih TEMİZ

 

 

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